Category: US Presidential Election 2016
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Sunday, October 09, 2016
Trump Campaign in Free Fall Going into 2nd Debate, Expect All Guns Blazing With Nothing to Lose / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The leaked lewd audio tape from a decade ago is having a devastating impact on what was an already crippled Trump campaign that has been on a downward trend trajectory since losing the 1st debate, where virtually each day tends to bring forward more bad news as the mainstream press digs deeper into Trumps past.
Saturday, October 08, 2016
Trump Election Campaign Blows Up Following Leaked Lewd Groping Women Tape / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The deeper one digs into Trumps past the worse things tend to get for his election chances. So it's no wonder Trump is failing to release his tax returns which would likely show that he is a FAKE billionaire i.e. probably has zero net worth or worse. Anyway the latest that the anti-Trump media establishment has been able to dig up is a lewd audio tape from a decade ago, and it really is shocking to hear! Especially so for the republican bible belt!
Thursday, October 06, 2016
Path to the White House is Paved by Billions of Dollars / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Walter_Brasch
With a month left before the November general election, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are trash-talking each other in a financial race to the White House.
According to the latest filing with the Federal Election Commission, Clinton has raised about $516.8 million for her campaign. Total spending by outside groups and SuperPacs supporting her was an additional $31.7 million; the total spent opposing her was about $40.2 million.
Wednesday, October 05, 2016
Mike Pence Beats Tim Kaine to Win VP Debate Triggering Trump Bounce / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Donald Trump has been having a disastrous time following loss of the 1st Presidential debate to Hillary Clinton and then leak of his 1995 tax return as illustrated by the betting market. However, now there is sliver of hope for Trump's campaign as his running mate, Mike Pence beat Tim Kaine in the Vice Presidents debate as the post debate odds have marginally shifted in Trumps favour.
Trump could learn a lesson or two from Pence on how to win debates, which apparently is NOT by going on the defensive as Trump repeatedly did to salvos from Hillary but by just completely ignoring the attacks and instead go on the attack or try to win the audience by telling them what they wanted to hear. Though of course "Mr Know it All" Trump listens to NO ONE!
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Tuesday, October 04, 2016
Donald Trump Presidency Reality Show, Path to US Election Win / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst today the battle rages for the US Presidency, ultimately through shear stubbornness the character of Donald Trump appears destined to be victorious which would herald in 4 years of the Trump Presidency reality show, one of a series of sophisticated CGI victories as America takes back control, builds the 'Trump Wall' and of course defeats ISIS whilst slaying the Democratic horde.
Sunday, October 02, 2016
Donald Trump's HUGE $916m Tax Loss Equivalent to $300,000 Trillion! / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Donald Trump often bangs on about how much debt the US has accrued to date and how is going to fix it. Yes, the government debt truly has mushroomed from $1 trillion in 1980 to nearly $20 trillion today. However, the New York times has given everyone a glimpse into Donald Trumps own personal financial affairs as the NYT has managed to get hold of Trumps 1995 tax return which shows a loss of $916 million for a single year! The NYT concludes that this effectively converts into Donald Trump not having paid any tax for 18 years. And this is just for one year, we can only imagine what any one of the Donald's other tax returns would show up in terms of paying zero tax.
Saturday, October 01, 2016
How Trump Can Win the U.S. Presidential Election After 1st Debate Meltdown / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So Trump lost the 1st debate, it was not even close and Trump's statements following the debate have not helped trigger any recovery as going on the offensive against for instance with his 'fat' remarks against a former Miss Universe that even had Trump backers grimacing or claiming winning in fictitious opinion polls has just resulted in a greater erosion of Trumps chances of winning as illustrated by the betting markets that have continued to trend in Clinton's direction all week.
Friday, September 30, 2016
Donald Trump Post Debate Meltdown, Betfair Betting Market Points to Collapse in Odds of Winning / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
According to the betting markets It appears Donald Trump's campaign is in full meltdown mode in the wake of Trumps loss to Hillary in the first debate following which instead of Trump's campaign trying to learn lessons from the defeat, instead has increasingly witnessed delusional Trump claiming victory and doubling down on by basically magnifying that which lost him the debate in the eyes of the voters as illustrated by calling into Fox and Friends that literally had the presenters grimacing in response to some of the statements that Trump was making such as being in the lead in fictitious opinion polls and then trying to defend the fat Miss Universe saga.
Friday, September 30, 2016
After the Debate, the Deluge? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: David_Galland
Dear Debate-Watchers,
“I guess he is a buffoon after all. Too bad.”
Those words were written by a dear friend and, until the lights went out on the first presidential debate, the most ardent of Trump supporters.
For the debate, a group of us had gathered at the Social Club at La Estancia de Cafayate here in the Argentine outback.
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Friday, September 30, 2016
Donald Trump Failing to Recover After 1st Debate Hillary Shimmy Loss - Betfair Betting Market / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The betting markets tend to be better short-term gauge for reactions to political events such as the debates. In which respect Donald Trump is showing NO signs of recovering from Monday's debate loss, instead the Betfair market odds have continued to widen from 2.88 (Trump) / 1.57 Hillary just prior to the start of the debate at 2am BST, which following the debate at 4am had widened to 3.35 (Trump) / 1.44 Hillary) and now 3 full days later the betfair market price is 3.45 (Trump) / 1.45 Hillary. Thus Hillary is continuing to capitalise on Trumps debate loss by widening her lead further, which means whatever post debate strategy Trumps team is deploying is just not working!
Thursday, September 29, 2016
Why Trump Lost, Hillary Won the 1st U.S. Presidential Debate / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The pollsters, political pundits and bookies all conclude that Donald Trump lost the 1st presidential debate. Apparently it was not even close, and personally having watched the debate and waiting for Hillary to make her fatal cough which never happened, I too can vouch that those who watched the debate and were not a vested interest would conclude that Hillary clearly won as the following video illustrates why:
Thursday, September 29, 2016
Did Trump Win the 1st US Presidential Election Debate? - There's Something Happening Here... / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The pollsters, political pundits and bookies all conclude that Donald Trump lost the 1st presidential debate. Apparently it was not even close, and personally having watched the debate, waiting for Hillary to make her fatal cough which never happened, I can vouch that those who watched the debate and were not a vested interest would conclude that Hillary won.
Wednesday, September 28, 2016
Fascist Trump Versus Communist Hillary Battle on a Sinking Ship / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Jeff_Berwick
We watched (and live tweeted ;@dollarvigilante) the US Presidential debates last night… mostly because we were hoping Hillary would drop dead on live TV.
Unfortunately, that didn’t happen.
What did happen was that the two choices for the lesser evil this year, came down to: slightly more fascist (Trump) versus slightly more communist (Clinton).
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Tuesday, September 27, 2016
Why There is Trump / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Raul_I_Meijer
It’s over! The entire model our societies have been based on for at least as long as we ourselves have lived, is over! That’s why there’s Trump.
There is no growth. There hasn’t been any real growth for years. All there is left are empty hollow sunshiny S&P stock market numbers propped up with ultra cheap debt and buybacks, and employment figures that hide untold millions hiding from the labor force. And most of all there’s debt, public as well as private, that has served to keep an illusion of growth alive and now increasingly no longer can.
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Tuesday, September 27, 2016
Hillary Wins, Trump Loses 1st Presidential Election Debate Confirmed by Betting Markets / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In my opinion Donald Trump clearly lost the debate, he literally came across at times as a spoilt brat, even as a cartoon figure whilst Hillary mostly came across as the responsible adult. So it looks like just as I warned was possible that Donald Trump could end up losing the election by failing to stick to a script, instead letting his mouth run rabid. He clearly just cannot control himself for more than a few minutes, and with 2 more debates to go means Hillary definitely has a fighting chance so this election certainly remains a close race right upto election night.
Monday, September 26, 2016
Trump Betting Odds Narrow Going into 1st Presidential Debate Suggesting Trump Win / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The 1st of 3 presidential debates will be held in a few hours time going into which Hillary leads across a wide spectrum of indicators from polling, political pundits, electoral college forecasters such as Nate Silver who give Hillary a 60% probability of winning the election, and of course the bookmakers who have Hillary Clinton as the clear favourite with Donald Trump as a 2-1 outsider.
Monday, September 26, 2016
Here’s Why Trump Needs More Than the Popular Vote to Win This Election / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: John_Mauldin
By David Galland, Garret/Galland Research : While driving around Burlington, Vermont, I noticed something. Actually, I noticed something missing. There were zero bumper stickers in support of Hillary.
I didn’t see a single lawn sign either.
It’s quite a contrast. In the last two elections, the displays for Obama were everywhere.
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Monday, September 26, 2016
Donald Trump’s Electoral Struggle / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Antonius_Aquinas
After touting her pro-labor union record, the Wicked Witch of Chappaqua rhetorically asked, “why am I not 50 points ahead?” Her chief rival bluntly responded: “because you’re terrible.”* No truer words have been uttered by any of the candidates about one of their opponents since the start of this extraordinary presidential campaign!
Monday, September 26, 2016
Outrageously Entertaining US Presidential Campaign Final Stages - What Happens Next? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: James_Quinn
As this vitriolic, unpredictable, outrageously entertaining presidential campaign enters its final stages I find myself pondering what happens next. I was reminded of the last scene in the 1972 movie, The Candidate. The movie is about a young untested non-politician candidate for U.S. Senator in California who puts his fate in the hands of a veteran political operative and overcomes a double digit polling deficit to win a huge upset victory. His entire focus during the campaign was to win. In the final scene of the movie he is standing among the celebrating campaign staffers and the fawning press corp. with a befuddled look on his face. He grabs his political consultant campaign manager and pulls him into a room. As the press break into the room he asks, “What do we do now?” The question goes unanswered and the movie ends.
Monday, September 26, 2016
Why Trump Will Win US General Election 2016 Prediction Forecast / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
There's definitely something in air across the western world which may not go as far as be classed as a revolution but at the very least 'rebellion', of where the mass of ordinary people are rebelling against the ruling establishment elite who have had an increasing grip on power through institutions and the media for at least the past 40 years as evidenced by the fact that the gap between the rich and rest has widened in virtually every year for the past 40 years, reaching levels not seen since before the second world war, ripe for rebellion even mass uprisings.