Category: AI
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, October 10, 2023
How Fast will AI Gut Hollywood? / Stock-Markets / AI
By: Stephen_McBride
It’s only a matter of time before someone builds “HollywoodGPT.”
The S&P 500 is slightly up as I write this morning.
Fresh highs in Treasury yields have put pressure on stocks. But I’m not worried about rising rates. As I recently explained, stocks typically go up during rate-hiking cycles!
Here’s what I’m thinking…
Sunday, October 01, 2023
AI Regulation - Urgent Need For A Sherman Act Mark Two / Politics / AI
By: Christopher_Quigley
It is almost certain that the advent of Artificial Intelligence (AI) will bring about even greater consolidation of power among the top American tech companies. These include Amazon, Meta (Facebook), Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Apple, Tesla, Advanced Micro Devices, NVIDA and Intel.This development presents a great opportunity for these companies but it also presents a great threat to the very fabric of capitalism and democracy. I believe, before it is too late, it is time that the power of these tech companies be broken and thus it is time for a new Sherman Act.
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Tuesday, September 12, 2023
The Next Elon Musk Just Graduated from Warwick University / Politics / AI
By: N_Walayat
Graduands become graduates and so it was for the NEXT Elon Musk, as Adnaan was handed his degree, an Master of Engineering 1st Class in Computer Science - AI. Whilst it is going to take time to reach the heights of Elon Musk, nevertheless a good start will be in his first job in Cambridge working on Quantum Computers., which about 10 years down the road will be a game changer in terms of an exponential leap in compute power, which for better or worse will herald the emergence of super machine Intelligence's that are far beyond that of human intelligence.
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Friday, July 21, 2023
AI Tech Stocks Red Lights and Sell Triggers / Stock-Markets / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
FOMO IS EXTREME, and up until last week's AAII survey the only thing that was lacking was a bullish investor sentiment gauge to match the stock prices going nuts to the upside! Well we got that with a shockingly extreme jump in investor sentient reading that went from 29% bull to 44.5% bull in 1 week!. Normally I don't pay much attention to this, but that is a BIG JUMP! We have not seen readings as high as this since late 2001, the pumps are definitely being primed for a sell off.
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Wednesday, May 31, 2023
AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All / Companies / AI
By: P_Radomski_CFA
AI! Computers making intelligent decisions! New paradigm! Old laws don’t apply anymore! Long live the bull market! …Really?
Yes, AI is transformative. It already starts to enhance multiple businesses, just like the Internet did many years ago. And as many thought cryptocurrencies would.
But it doesn’t mean that the huge transformation will happen overnight! Or that it fixes everything with regard to the world’s problems in general or with the economic situation.
However, as always, markets – that are ultimately made of people (and bots that were programmed by people, anyway) – are emotional in the short run. And this emotionality is what likely we have just seen when the interest in AI soared.
Monday, May 22, 2023
AI Will First KILL Us then Save Us / Politics / AI
By: HGR
The world is in the grips of AI mania courtesy of Chat GPT that brought the power of large language models to the masses, that had been quietly flying under the radar for several years, but come release of GPT3 everything literally changed overnight. sending stacks such as Nvidia soaring to bubble territory. The unfolding explosion is amazing to someone who has been engaged in machine learning for over a decade, and AI explosion IS literally taking place right now that is the focus of my latest machine intelligence video that sheds light on where all of this is headed given the rate of change now underway.
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Monday, May 15, 2023
Humanity Dancing to Extinction as AI Mega-trend Goes Parabolic With GPT LLM's / Politics / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Musk says halt work on Large Language models, primarily so he can play and catch up to the runaway train sparked by the GPT Large Language Models that this video acts to chart where we are heading along on a Machine Intelligence curve that is now going parabolic as illustrated by the fact that even those who have been part of this trend for over a decade can no longer keep pace with the rate of change so what hope do ordinary folks have hence this video will act to shine a light much as my 2016 video did that laid the grounds for the Quantum AI Mega-trend so see this video as Part 2 of a 7 year arc.
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Wednesday, March 29, 2023
Will ChatGPT Kill College? / Personal_Finance / AI
By: Stephen_McBride
A message from a reader… The new ChatGPT just came out… Will it be the nail in the coffin for thousands of colleges across America?
- At least with healthcare, you get something for your money. College, on the other hand...
A reader wrote me after I called healthcare “America’s most broken industry.”
He said that title should go to our education system.
Monday, December 19, 2022
AI Tech Stocks TRAVELLING THROUGH TIME AT AN EXPONENTIAL RATE! / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Many analysts refer to what happened decades ago to try and imply to expect similar today, what is it that they are blind to that ensures the past is not a good measure of the future? What they miss is the exponential nature of the trend we are upon! We are RACING THROUGH TIME AT AN ACCLERATING PACE! What not so long ago took decades now has been compressed into years! What not so long ago took years now takes months! That is the exponential AI mega-trend in a nutshell and it is ACCELERATING! Go back a thousand years and nothing much change for most folks for centuries! Go back 100 years and the changes would be measured in terms of decades! Go back 50 years and changes were measured in years! Today the pace of change is in the months! And yes it will become in the weeks! So how are we to capitalise on this exponential trend? By investing in the stocks that are making the trend become manifest, holding on with both hands as they whip through time at an exponential rate, clinging on as we watch those who SELL fall behind waiting for a dip to get back on board.
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Wednesday, June 29, 2022
AI Tech Stock PORTFOLIO NAME OF THE GAME / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What's the name of the game?
Answer - To gain exposure to the Quantum AI tech stocks that are on an exponential trend trajectory. That is the name of the game, where today's 50% deviations form the highs in the likes of Nvidia and AMD will become invisible blips on the long-term charts in a few short years time. Though how many investors will be able to hold on for the big pay off? I suspect not many given that today's platforms induce a trader mindset in investors which is how the platforms have been designed to drum up lots of small commissions be it IKBR's 35 cents per trade or Free Trades 0.45% F/X fee. So I know what's going to happen after stocks have bottomed and start to rocket higher say by 30% to 50% many will start asking is it now time to sell? As they think they will be able to trade in and out of corrections.
Last year I made the mistake of selling too much! Selling 80% of my holdings was too much, yes a bear market was highly probable but one does not know for sure until it actually materialises and to what degree. Back when Nvidia was flying high as a kite above $300, writing that I expected it to fall to below $200 and possibly as low as $140 does not mean it was definitely going to happen until it actually happens!
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Sunday, April 03, 2022
NVIDIA is ARMless - To Buy or Not to Buy, that is the Question / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As suspected failure for the ARM deal to go through is about to become manifest and was expected to trigger a sell off buying opportunity, Though Nvidia IS firing on all cylinders, it's just that as has been the case for the whole of 2021, NVIDIA IS OVER VALUED! My exposure stands at 9.6% of target (0.5% of portfolio) which is actually down on last week as I took profits given that I do expect Nvidia to be one of the stocks to take a tumble to fresh lows. It is hard to believe that the stock can trade below it's recent low of $209, after all that WAS my target draw down for the stock! So it may yet turn out to be THE LOW, after all the bounce back from $209 was quite powerful, i.e. lots of buy the dippers stepping in. Nvidia is a tough stock to buy, because it is a FANTASTIC CORPORATION that trades at a too high a valuation. Which means no matter what price I pay for Nvidia in hindsight it will probably prove to VERY HIGH! It's one of those things where you know how good a corporation is and one is desperate to expand ones exposure to but you also know its DAMN expensive, especially when we look at where Facebook is trading right now i.e. on a valuations that's less than 1/4 that of Nvidia! Is Nvidia worth 4 TIMES as much as Facebook? Seriously? And this is why despite Nvidia's price plunge to date I see a lot more potential downside for this stock. Maybe I should just do the same as for Apple? I.e. buy to just 1% of portfolio and then hold fire for much, much lower prices IF they materialise great, if not then at some point I would have to bite the bullet and buy Nvidia for something like $265 a share!
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Wednesday, February 02, 2022
AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Buying Levels and Limit Orders for Buying the Panic! / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A reminder that my plan is to capitalise on a valuation reset in the over valued tech giants as they are one by one marked lower by at least 20% from their bull highs as we recently enjoyed with Facebook down to $300, with Nvidia and AMD already along their path towards triggering buying opportunities and the likes of Microsoft and Apple to soon follow suit.
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Monday, January 17, 2022
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Firstly never forget that the AI Mega-trend is NOT LINEAR BUT EXPONENTIAL where the pandemic has only acted to to accelerate the mega-trend a notch higher. For instance GPT3 (which Microsoft owns) implies autonomous humanoid robots that people can have actual conversations with are just around the corner, we will probably see mass business if not retail consumer devices (robots) within the next FOUR YEARS!
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Sunday, January 09, 2022
IBM The REAL Quantum Metaverse STOCK! / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
IBM is another sleeping tech giant that the so called the analysts are clueless about.
What comes to mind when you think of IBM ?
It's stock price chart ?
Logo?
What comes to my mind is a quantum computer and then the 2001 Space Oddessy movie Monolith. If you have not watched the movie then watch it even though it is over 50 years old.
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Tuesday, January 04, 2022
Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Current State / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In terms of the AI stocks portfolio this means I am scrapping small nearby limit orders I had for Apple,. Microsoft, AVGO, and LMT, and replacing with more distant limit order, for instance I would be buying significant exposure to LMT at around $300 rather than at my just scrapped limit order of $326. Similarly I amended my LIMIT order to buy more INTEL from $47 to $44 and and IBM from $115 to $108. Though I would not be surprised if both Intel and IBM ROSE whilst the rest of the market fell, hence why I am content to already be mostly fully invested in Intel and IBM.
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Monday, January 03, 2022
AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Updated Buying Levels and Zones Part 2 of 2 / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Happy Near Year!
This is the concluding part two of my extensive analysis on the state of the AI tech stocks highlighting several stocks trading at bargain basement levels despite the FOMO rally in the face of the countdown to Financial Crisis 2.0 during 2022.
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Wednesday, December 22, 2021
TSMC and Microsoft AI Tech Stocks Analysis / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
TSMC $117
PE 29.9, has been stuck in a tight trading range for virtually the whole of 2021 at between $125 and $108. Therefore I am raising the buying level to an achievable $109.5.
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Tuesday, December 21, 2021
AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Updated Buying Levels and Zones as Financial Crisis 2.0 Continues Brewing / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
China's property market is collapsing but the only data we have at present is anecdotal from the property developer canaries in the coal mine which have been under extreme distress for several months, with now dozens defaulting on their debts triggering fire sales of housing stock to raise revenues as they desperately fight to stay alive in the face of impending debt and interest payments, playing their part in the brewing Financial Crisis 2.0.
Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist
- China housing market in distress - CHECK
- China's economy slowing - CHECK
- US Economy slowing - CHECK
- Brewing STAGFLATION - Slowing economy coupled with rising prices - CHECK
- Black Swan Event - Crisis at the ports - CHECK
- Economic Models busted - Workers refusing to return to work not factored into Economic models - CHECK
- REVERSE REPO MARKET - Banks desperate to swap deposit liabilities for T-bills collateral so as to lower capital requirements which has drained the capital markets of over $1 trillion - CHECK
- STOCK MARKET BUBBLE - Valuations have lost touch with reality - CHECK
- FED TAPERING into a Weakening Economy - Huge Risk of a valuation reset - CHECK
- IMPEMDING DOOM! - The relentless march of the Climate Change Mega-trend where all that the worlds leaders did at COP26 was Blah Blah Blah - CHECK!
So yes, Financial Crisis 2.0 continues to brew in the background and will likely come knocking on many investor portfolio door's during 2022 so don't be so eager to FOMO into stocks today to later wish one had missed out on the preceding 6-8 months of price action by Mid 2022. Where whatever one buys and holds today needs to factor in a potential for lower lows than what we saw in October and for some a lot lower lows than that! If one is happy with that then continue to FOMO all the way to new all time highs, for the time being.
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Thursday, November 04, 2021
Artificial Intelligence Could Solve This $11 Trillion Problem / Companies / AI
By: Submissions
The $11-trillion healthcare industry is going fully digital, disrupting industry giants & government monopolies, and finally giving the power back to the people.
That means no more googling of symptoms for a panic-driven self-diagnosis… where a spot on the skin can turn into a rare fatal disease, or an upset stomach into Stage IV cancer.
The digital revolution in healthcare is about far more than simply scheduling an appointment with a clinic through an app …
It’s about empowering the individual to take control of their health.
It won’t be Google that leads this revolution. And it most certainly won’t be Cortana or Alexa.
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Thursday, October 28, 2021
AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Current State / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
AI Stocks Buying Pressure Evaluation
Its now over 6 weeks since I first posted the AI generated forecasts where I deemed the resulting Buying Pressure as being the most important derived indicator for what the stocks are likely to do. For instance Facebook and AMD were expected to be the strongest, and not far behind Microsoft, Apple, Google, where Nvidia strength was contrary to my expectations for this over valued stock. Basically the AI was saying that I had a mistake mistake by selling out of Microsoft, Apple and Nvidia etc. The only decision it was concurring with was that Amazon was expected to be weak with only 17% upwards buying pressure, as was Samsung at 34%. and IBM on 26%. Whilst an unloved Intel continued to carry huge unrealised potential hence my seeking to accumulate more on any dips below $50.
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