Category: Recession 2019
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, November 07, 2019
Where Is That Confounded Recession? / Economics / Recession 2019
By: F_F_Wiley
“Ah, excuse me. Oh, will ya excuse me. I’m just trying to find the recession. Has anybody seen the recession?”
Ask that question in a roomful of forecasters, and you’ll hear plenty of reasons why the next recession is dead ahead: the inverted yield curve, the tariff war, weak PMIs, the global manufacturing downturn.
Events might eventually prove those recession forecasts to be correct, although I would say not until mid-2020 at the earliest, and a recession at that time remains just a possibility. I say that because we haven’t yet seen enough cause for alarm in the three areas that most reliably predict recessions. Before every recession, we see at least one, usually two and often every one of the following three precursors:
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Tuesday, July 30, 2019
Are We in Recession Yet? / / Recession 2019
By: John_Mauldin
I’m often asked if recession is coming.For quite some time now, my answer has been: “Yes, but not just yet.”
That’s still what I think today, but more of the early warning signals I have used in the past are beginning to flash again.
I see some leading indicators weakening. I see smart people like Dave Rosenberg argue we may already be in recession today.
And I see Wall Street not really caring either way, so long as it gets enough rate cuts to prop up asset prices. None of that is comforting.
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Friday, May 17, 2019
This Is a Recession Indicator No One Is Talking About—and It’s Flashing Red / Economics / Recession 2019
By: Patrick_Watson
The yield curve isn’t the only sign recession is coming. Rising corporate misconduct says the same.
Business scandals seem to peak at the end of every growth cycle. I think that’s because CEOs are human, and humans get overconfident when everything is going well.
- In the late 1980s, we had the savings & loan crisis, followed by recession in 1990–91.
- The early 2000s brought both a deep recession and scandals at Enron, Tyco, WorldCom, and others.
- The Great Recession exposed Bernie Madoff’s fraud scheme. A couple of years earlier, commodity broker Refco went bankrupt after its CEO had concealed millions in bad debts.
Allegations of negligence and/or misconduct at public companies now seem to be growing again…
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Tuesday, April 09, 2019
A Recession is Coming… But Not Just Yet / Economics / Recession 2019
By: Harry_Dent
In the last week, there have been a slew of articles warning that we’re on the verge of a recession.
The most prominent is talk about the yield curve – the 10-year versus the three-month Treasurys – finally inverting. That has led every recession since 1955, and only gave one false signal in the 1960s.
I agree. This is something to worry about. But, this signal typically appears about a year before any recession hits. That means stocks could run up another six to nine months before they react. That’s all we need for my Dark Window blow-off rally scenario.
Friday, April 05, 2019
FedEx’s Report Confirms Recession Fears / Companies / Recession 2019
By: John_Mauldin
Last month, the Fed joined its global peers and turned decisively dovish.
Jerome Powell and friends haven’t just stopped tightening. Soon they will begin actively easing by reinvesting the Fed’s maturing mortgage bonds into Treasury securities.
It’s not exactly “Quantitative Easing I, II, and III,” but it will have some of the same effects.
Why are they doing this?
Friday, April 05, 2019
A Big Advantage: Knowing Where You Are In The Economic Cycle / Economics / Recession 2019
By: John_Mauldin
By Eric Basmajian : Geoffrey Moore, the father of leading indicators, once said that it is a big advantage just to know where you are in the economic cycle, let alone trying to forecast where it is going.
Most investors or analysts don't have a concrete way to define where we are in the cycle and use common but silly analogies to the inning of a baseball game to identify the current standing of the economy. I have even heard some analysts describe the economic cycle as being in "extra-innings." I understand this mentality but chuckle at the framework as it has become such a consensus saying that all media pundits seem to have an answer as to the inning of the game.
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Tuesday, March 19, 2019
Looking at the Economic Winter Season Ahead / Economics / Recession 2019
By: Harry_Dent
Last Friday I talked about how we have been in a muted Economic Winter Season. We may have had the greatest stock market bubble ever, but our economic “recovery” has been the weakest on record, despite the strongest, globally-concerted stimulus ever.Here’s a chart comparing the real GDP for the 11 years from the 1929 top through the 1940 bottom to the 11 years from 2007 to 2018.
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Wednesday, March 13, 2019
TSP Recession Indicator - Criss-Cross, Flip-Flop and Remembering 1966 / Economics / Recession 2019
By: F_F_Wiley
In November, we argued that the business cycle rests heavily on a certain type of incremental spending—namely, spending that doesn’t require prior savings. We used the term thin-air spending power (TSP) to describe spending that’s financed by external “injections” instead of prior savings.
As part of our argument, we shared the chart below, which compares TSP-derived spending on the left (financed by fresh bank credit) to spending that merely recycles savings, such as the prior domestic savings category on the right.
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Friday, March 08, 2019
Is Recession Near? / Economics / Recession 2019
By: John_Mauldin
I trust Dave Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff. He’s been a perpetual speaker at my SIC conference for at least 10 years.
Dave is screaming recession every chance he gets, but he is not a perma-bear by any means.
He’s been bullish at the right times in the past. Dave turned uber-bullish 9 or 10 years ago. It was way outside the consensus at the time, but he has never cared much about being part of the consensus.
So while I don’t entirely agree with him this time, I pay attention.
Friday, February 08, 2019
US Business Confidence Is Starting to Crack / Economics / Recession 2019
By: Patrick_Watson
Actions speak louder than words.
That’s why surveys asking people what they think about the economy aren’t always useful. Their actions might not match their words.
Of course, attitudes are important because they guide our decisions, even though we don’t act on them consistently.
Not everyone’s decisions have equal impact, though. Business owners and CEOs have more influence because they make bigger decisions: whether to create new jobs, raise wages, buy new equipment, and so on.
Friday, January 25, 2019
Will We See a Recession and a Rally in Gold in 2019 or 2020? / Economics / Recession 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
We will see a recession and a rally in gold in 2019 or 2020. True or false? We invite you to read our today’s article about ‘recession in 2020’ narrative and find out what it all means for the gold market.
114 months. So long is the current US economic expansion. It officially started in June 2009, and if the country avoids recession until July 2019, the uptrend in the business cycle will exceed 120 months, becoming the longest expansion since at least 1857, when the NBER began recording economy.
Last year, we analyzed the popular claim that “the current expansion is so long, that it must end soon”. Surprisingly for us, we reached similar conclusions to Janet Yellen, who said once that expansions do not die of old age.
However, many analysts present more sophisticated arguments for the upcoming crisis. For example, Morgan Stanley has recently estimated the odds of recession in the US at 15 percent in 2019 and 30 percent in 2020. Larry Summers, the former Treasury Secretary, has gone even further, putting the chances of a recession in the US within the next two years at about 50 percent.
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Wednesday, January 23, 2019
Recession Signals - Daylight, Nighttime, And Cycles Of Risks And Opportunities / Economics / Recession 2019
By: Dan_Amerman
Numerous warning signals of a coming recession have appeared recently, and there have been rapid changes in bond prices, stock prices and Federal Reserve policies.
Yet, the stock market indexes are rising again, and the economic and financial fundamentals remain strong in many ways. Are the widespread fears of recession overblown?
In the search for answers, this analysis explores 164 years of economic history, and the 34 previous "night and day" iterations of recession and expansion. By studying the average expansion and recession, many insights can be gained in terms of what economies look like shortly before recession, and whether history shows that the current robust economic statistics are in fact a reliable argument against another recession starting within the next 1-2 years.
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Monday, December 03, 2018
TICK TOCK, Counting Down to the Next Recession / Economics / Recession 2019
By: James_Quinn
“This country, and with it most of the Western world, is presently going through a period of inflation and credit expansion. As the quantity of money in circulation and deposits subject to check increases, there prevails a general tendency for the prices of commodities and services to rise. Business is booming. Yet such a boom, artificially engineered by monetary and credit expansion, cannot last forever. It must come to an end sooner or later. For paper money and bank deposits are not a proper substitute for non-existing capital goods. Economic theory has demonstrated in an irrefutable way that a prosperity created by an expansionist monetary and credit policy is illusory and must end in a slump, an economic crisis. It has happened again and again in the past, and it will happen in the future, too.” – Ludwig von Mises – 1952