Wednesday, July 13, 2022
Stocks, Pot Stocks & Bonds: 5 global Market Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2022
By: EWI
Hi reader,
Back in 1992, our friends at Elliott Wave International began offering their institutional subscribers a thin monthly brochure packed with big-picture forecasts for key markets.
Today, 30 years later, Global Market Perspective is still one of EWI's most-read publications.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 13, 2022
How Has Russia’s Ukraine Invasion Impacted the Commodity Markets? / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Travis_Bard
Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine continues to take an incredible human toll, with the very latest updates from the Office of the United Nations revealing that some 4,509 civilians had been killed in the conflict to date.
However, this geopolitical conflict has also caused significant financial and market disruption, from compounding the rise in global energy prices to significantly disturbing the world’s agricultural space.
But how exactly has this industry been impacted to date, and what does the conflict mean for the global commodity markets as a whole?
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 12, 2022
UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025 / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the 3rd and final part of my extensive analysis of the UK housing market that concludes in a detailed 3 year trend forecast for UK house prices ( Part 1, Part 2 )
UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025
THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND
WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING
High Inflation Forecast for Whole of this Decade Due to Rampant Money Printing
Fed Inflation Strategy Revealed
Russian Sanctions Stagflation Driver
RECESSION RISKS 2023
UK Debt Inflation Smoking Gun
Britains' Hyper Housing Market
UK Population Growth Forecast 2010 to 2030
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis
UK Over Crowding Ratio
Overcrowding Implications for UK House Prices
UK Housing Market Affordability
UK House Prices Real Terms Sustainable Trend
UK House Prices Relative to GDP Growth
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast
UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend
Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES
Is the US Yield Curve Inversion Broken?
UK house Prices and Yield Curve Inversions
Interest Rates How High WIll they Go?
Work From Home Inflationary BOOM?
Formulating a UK House Prices Forecast
UK House Prices 2022 to 2025 Trend Forecast Conclusion
Peering into the Mists of TIme
Risks to the Forecasts
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2022-2024
Tuesday, July 12, 2022
Gold, Stocks, Bitcoin, and Bonds Asset Price Deflation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
Before we talk about asset price deflation, let’s review what happened before 2022.
Most financial assets benefited enormously from the Fed’s hugely gratuitous efforts to support, sustain and reinflate prices after the 2020 collapse and the ensuing forced economic shutdown.
From the article Gold Market Manipulation And The Federal Reserve…
“Long-side investors in all assets, including precious metals, ‘benefited’ from the manipulative efforts of the Federal Reserve twelve years ago and again just recently.
The recent recovery in prices for stocks, bonds, oil, gold, and silver has been almost unbelievable. It is literally jaw-dropping…” June 28, 2020
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 12, 2022
Ah, Snap! Here's What Snap Inc.'s Stock Price Action is Likely Signaling / Companies / Social Media
By: EWI
"Air-pocket declines ... are harbingers"
Snap Inc. is the company which developed Snapchat, the social media app which allows users to customize the content they share with others -- right in the app.
Recently, the firm introduced Snapchat+ -- available for $3.99 a month.
Snap could use some success -- it's been a tough go lately.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 12, 2022
How to Us WIndows 10 Memory Diagnostics Tool to Diagnose Why Your PC is Crashing Check list / Personal_Finance / Microsoft
By: HGR
Here is a useful tool built into Windows 10 to help diagnose why your Windows 10 System is unstable, prone to blue screening. Windows 10 Memory Diagnostics which at least will eliminate failing memory stocks from your why is my PC crashing check list.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 12, 2022
Learn to How to Ride a Bicycle, Bike in Minutes / Personal_Finance / Educating Children
By: Eliza_Walayat
Eliza shows how to eaily learn how to ride a bike mostly in MIllhouses Park Sheffield
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 11, 2022
Stocks Bear Market Rally Last Gasp Before Earnings Season / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Before I get started with my stock market analysis here is my take on the political assassination of Boris Johnson, who was stabbed in the back Thursday by so called colleagues Julius Caesar style by a Tory party that effectively committed electoral suicide. Britain demonstrates the illusion of democracy where we vote one person and his party in who soon gets replaced with a waste of spacer that the electorate did not vote for! A loss of a PM for any reason should automatically trigger a general election.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 11, 2022
“Sleeper Stocks” are Defying the Bear Market / Companies / Investing 2022
By: Submissions
By Justin Spittler : You won’t hear about it in the mainstream media…
But my favorite group of “sleeper stocks” is pulling away from the broad market.
As of June 28, these sleeper stocks (green line) are up 13% over the previous seven weeks. The S&P 500 was down 2% over the same time frame:
Sunday, July 10, 2022
Formulating a UK House Prices Forecast / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
House prices will be higher a year from now, 2 years from now and definitely 3 years from now, the question mark is how high?
Momentum suggests a flat lining market from late 2022 with very light upwards price pressure during early 2023 that could see house price inflation briefly fall towards zero accompanied by maybe a couple of down months before the bull market resumes going into 2024 and 2025.
Net immigration of 300k and an expected Ukrainian influx of at least 200k is going to put the UK housing market under extra strain and upwards price pressure.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 10, 2022
Work From Home Inflationary BOOM? / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The pandemic has resulted in many tens of millions more americans working from home. As someone who has been working form home for a good 15 years I can well understand why house prices have rocketed higher as prospective home buyers both seek out properties that are better suited to working from home, more suburban, quiet office spaces, plenty of storage, or view properties with scope to being upgraded into work from home environments.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 10, 2022
Trial Begins in Gold & Silver Manipulation Case Against J.P. Morgan Official / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: MoneyMetals
Fears of further Fed tightening continue to weigh on metals markets.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its most recent policy meeting. As CNBC reported, central bankers remain fixated on inflation.
CNBC Reporter: The minutes of the latest Fed meetings show that officials agreed that another rate hike of 50-75 basis points would likely be appropriate at its meeting later this month. Officials also acknowledge that there could be an even more restrictive stance that could be appropriate if inflation remains high. Now, the minutes show that Fed officials were worried about inflation becoming entrenched, that was debated several times in this document. Many participants viewed that as a significant risk.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 10, 2022
What are the benefits of doing good deeds? / Personal_Finance / Social Issues
By: Mark_Adan
There are several benefits to doing good deeds, both short-term and long-term. Short-term benefits can include feeling good about yourself, having a positive impact on others, and making a difference in the world. Long-term benefits can include developing self-confidence, gaining moral character, and developing a sense of purpose in life.
Self-confidence is one of the most commonly cited benefits of doing good deeds. When you feel good about yourself, you are more likely to feel confident in other areas of your life, including your work and relationships. Building self-confidence can be difficult, but it is definitely worth the effort.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 10, 2022
Does Selling Put Options During A Market Downturn Provide A Safety Net? / InvestorEducation / Options & Warrants
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In a significant market downturn, bearish sentiment, if not outright fear, can drive down the share price of good companies rather drastically. When the market is in a sustained selling mood, there can be a substantial disconnect between the long-term fundamentals and the technical price action we see on the chart.
The Temptation to Bottom Fish
What can we do when good companies are trading at what appear to be bargain prices? We could “stick our toe in the water” and buy shares. But what if we’re wrong about whether a bottom in the share price is in place? Or what if the stock takes a very long time to build a base and goes nowhere for an extended period?
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 10, 2022
What Needs to Happen for the Gold Stocks GDXJ to Hit New Lows? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Although the general stock market has risen, this trend may soon reverse. Since it often moves along with gold stocks, junior miners can face a fall too.
Let the S&P 500 Be a Clue
Mining stocks declined significantly this week, but they haven’t severely underperformed gold. There is a good reason for it – the general stock market moved higher recently.
What would have to happen for the mining stocks (in particular, junior mining stocks) to decline in a more profound manner and slide well below $30 (in the GDXJ)? For example, the trend in the stock market could reverse.
Guess what – that’s exactly what’s likely to happen based on what’s going on in the S&P 500 chart.
Saturday, July 09, 2022
UK house Prices and Yield Curve Inversions / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England just like it's US counterpart recognises the significance of the yield curve inversions not because it has magical powers but that it tends to act as a self fulfilling prophecy, i.e. if enough people act on such as trigger as they tend to do then YES it will negatively impact on economic activity as market participants respond accordingly.
However in this respect the Bank of England has done a good smoke and mirrors job of masking the importance of yield curve inversions in the UK, which just don't carry as much weight as they do in the US. The UK yield curve has already temporarily inverted in December, but as has been the case for some time it tends to be of a con flip significance. At best UK yield curve inversions signal economic stress that we are already well aware of.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 09, 2022
Central Banks QT SCAM - Bank of England Set to DELETE UK Treasury Bonds off it's Balance Sheet / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Just as the Bank of England handed most of the interest that the UK treasury pays on the Gilts it holds back to the TREASURY
So what do you think the Bank of England is going to do as maturing bonds are removed from it's balance sheet, I will tell you whats going to happnen, they are going to subvert QT so that most of the money the treasury pays the Bank of England on mautirng bonds is going to find it's way back to Treasury in a technical excercise of deleting maturing bonds off central banks balance sheet.
The only question market is will the clueless mainstream financial press be able to cotton on to the inflationary Weimer Republic money printing scam that the Bank of England and Treasury will be perpertruating or not?
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 09, 2022
Euphoric US Dollar Slams Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Zeal_LLC
The euphoric US dollar rocketing stratospheric to extreme multi-decade highs slammed gold this week! That vertical surge ignited heavy gold-futures selling, hammering gold into a serious technical breakdown. The resulting sentiment damage was severe, with traders now convinced gold is doomed to spiral much lower. But a major reversal is imminent in the radically-overbought dollar, which will catapult gold higher.
Gold has two primary drivers, investment demand and gold-futures speculation. Investment capital flows are much-larger and ultimately far-more-important. But because of the extreme leverage inherent in gold futures, speculators punch way above their weights in influencing gold price action. They totally dominate gold when investors are mostly missing-in-action. And the US dollar’s fortunes are their main trading cue.
Each gold-futures contract controls 100 ounces of gold, worth $180,600 entering this week. But traders are only required to maintain $7,200 cash margins in their accounts for each contract traded. That makes for maximum leverage of 25.1x, over an order of magnitude greater than the 2x legal limit in the stock markets. At 25x, each dollar traded in gold futures has 25x the gold-price impact of a dollar invested outright!
But that kind of leverage is exceedingly-risky, as a mere 4% gold move against speculators’ bets wipes out 100% of their capital risked. Always facing fast total ruin, these traders’ time horizons are forced to be ultra-short-term. They can only care what gold prices are doing in coming hours or days, even weeks are too distant. That extreme-leverage-necessitated myopia often leaves gold inversely slaved to the US dollar.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 09, 2022
How to Prepare for a Hard-Hitting Stocks Bear Market (Think 1929-1932) / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: EWI
This metric of bullishness is higher than it was at the top of the dot-com mania
An important step in preparing for a historic bear market is to embrace cash or cash equivalents.
This may seem obvious, but even with the stock market in a downtrend, cash is shunned by many an investor -- retail and professional. Many of these investors believe the bull market will resume -- sooner rather than later.
As the May Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly publication which analyzes financial markets and major cultural trends, noted:
The percentage of assets dedicated to equities in American Association of Individual Investors members' portfolios remains near a bullish extreme. ... They think a "correction" is in force but not a bear market.
So, AAII members have been holding more stocks than cash.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 08, 2022
AI Tech Stocks Name of the Game / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Before I get started with my stock market analysis, here is my take on the political assasination of Boris Johnson, who was stabbed in the back yesterday by so called collegues Julius Caesar style by a Tory party that effectively committed electoral suicide.
Read full article... Read full article...