Tuesday, August 01, 2017
The Fed’s Monetary Tantrum Will Push The Economy Into Outright Deflation / Interest-Rates / Deflation
By: John_Mauldin
It is increasingly evident that the US economy is not taking off like some predicted after the election.
President Trump and the Republicans haven’t passed any of the fiscal stimulus measures we hoped to see. Banks and energy companies have got some regulatory relief, and that helps. But it’s a far cry from the sweeping healthcare reform, tax cuts, and infrastructure spending we were promised.
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Tuesday, August 01, 2017
NASDAQ Composite Stocks Index Should Pullback Soon / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: ElliottWave-Forecast
The following video/chart shows NASDAQ composite index. The index has a tremendous rally since the lows around 1975 which is pretty close to the zero level. The index has reached the bottom of the blue box at 6219 area. The question then is whether the index will extend higher or start correcting lower as the minimal target has been reached. As we often say, Elliott wave theory by itself is not enough. In this case, we can see that from the zero line, we can count the index as a completed ABC. However, we can also count it as an incomplete ABC with a black((4)) still to happen. In the Elliott wave theory, any five waves structure always at one moment is a three wave move. It is therefore too early at this stage to determine if the rally will develop into a five waves move.
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Tuesday, August 01, 2017
Crude Oil – Gold Link in July / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Friday, crude oil moved higher and hit a July peak supported by a weakening U.S. dollar and bullish Wednesday’s EIA weekly report. As a result, the black gold climbed above the 200-day moving average, but is it enough to trigger a rally above $50?
Tuesday, August 01, 2017
GBPUSD Broke Above Channel Resistance / Currencies / British Pound
By: Franco_Shao
GBPUSD broke above the descending price channel at 1.3100 on its weekly chart, indicating that lengthier correction for the long term downtrend from the July 2014 high of 1.7190 is needed.
Tuesday, August 01, 2017
When Fiat Currencies Die - Preparing to Barter and Trade Is NOT a Loony Idea / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: MoneyMetals
Let’s start with this fact; fiat (paper) currencies die – often spectacularly. That is why precious metals may someday be needed for barter and trade. Anyone who thinks it is silly to worry about such a thing is putting blind faith in Federal Reserve Notes.
The U.S. dollar is having a great run, no question. It will soon be 50 years since Nixon closed the gold window, thereby converting the dollar to a purely fiat currency. Five decades is longer than most purely fiat currencies survive.
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Tuesday, August 01, 2017
Stock Market Bears Are Getting Desperate / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Avi_Gilburt
Last weekend, I noted that I expect the market to move up towards the 2487SPX region before we are able to see a market top. And, this past week, we struck a high of 2484.04, and saw a strong reaction to the downside.
While the market has continued higher since February 2016 as I expected, we have all read those articles which suggest the top is going to be seen any day now. And, yes, we have seen them almost daily for the entire 40% rally we have experienced since that time.
Many analysts have been pointing to so many different reasons as to why they believe the market is “wrong.” And many more have pointed to reasons they expected the market to crash imminently, such as terrorist attacks, Brexit, Frexit, Trump election, cessation of QE, interest rate hikes, and many more that we all have read. Yes, most were quite certain that the market would never see its current heights and have fought this rally tooth and nail.
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Tuesday, August 01, 2017
Here’s The Real Reason The Fed Is Making Absurd Monetary Decisions / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: John_Mauldin
I have often written about the Fed's abysmal track record in managing the economy. Here Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington of Hoisington Investment Management explain the reasons for the Fed's consistently poor track record.
They start by considering the Fed’s “dual mandate,” which sets “the goals of maximum employment, stable prices and moderate long-term interest rates.” (And yes, that is actually three goals, not two.)
But a problem arises, the authors note, “because considerable time elapses between the implementation of the monetary actions designed to follow the mandate and when the impact of those actions take effect on broader business conditions.”
The time lag can easily be three years or longer, with the result that policy changes often end up being pro-rather than countercyclical. To make matters even worse, “the economic risks from adherence to this dual mandate are now much greater than historically due to the economy’s extreme over-indebtedness, poor demographics and a fragile global economy.”
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Tuesday, August 01, 2017
The Myths and Realities of Duterte’s Infrastructure Initiative / Politics / Asian Economies
By: Dan_Steinbock
A huge upgrade of infrastructure is vital for Philippines economic future. That’s why it is contested by entrenched interests, including foreign powers. This is the first in a series of occasional commentaries about the Philippines transformation from an international viewpoint.In the past year, President Duterte has initiated a series of economic reforms to accelerate economic development. Despite much “political noise,” the government seeks sustained growth around 6.5- 7% in 2017, by banking on multiple initiatives, especially higher infrastructure spending.
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Monday, July 31, 2017
Bitcoin, ICO Risk Versus Immutable Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: GoldCore
– Latest developments show risks in crypto currencies
– Confusion as bitcoin may split tomorrow
– SEC stepped into express concern over ICOs
– ICOs have so far raised $1.2 billion in 2017
– ICOs preying on lack of understanding from investors
– Physical gold not vulnerable to technological risk
– Beauty and safety in simplicity of gold and silver
Monday, July 31, 2017
Mixed Expectations As Stocks Trade Along New Record High / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Paul_Rejczak
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Monday, July 31, 2017
Buy-to-let Mortgage Interest Rates Still Falling / Housing-Market / Buy to Let
By: MoneyFacts
Despite the increased scrutiny the buy-to-let (BTL) market has been facing, BTL mortgage competition is showing no signs of stopping. Research from moneyfacts.co.uk shows that the average two-year fixed BTL rate has fallen by 0.31% in one year, and even though the pace of the fall has slowed in recent months, the market has now recovered from the significant drop in products that was seen at the start of this year.
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Monday, July 31, 2017
Gold Price Would Test 1300 Resistance / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Franco_Shao
XAUUSD recently broke above 1258.78 resistance and continued its bullish movement from the July 10 low of 1204.77, and the bullish movement extended to as high as 1270.81.
Monday, July 31, 2017
Exposing the US Government As Terrorist Organization / Politics / US Politics
By: Jeff_Berwick
I recently had the opportunity to speak on Iran’s PressTV channel. It was great being able to speak a bit of truth about the state of the world and evil transgressions perpetrated by the US government on a relatively well-known network.
The first thing I was asked about was what kind of repercussions the US sanctions on Russia, Iran, and North Korea will have? I responded by bringing up the great anarchist, Frederick Bastiat’s, quote “When goods don’t cross borders, Soldiers will.”
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Monday, July 31, 2017
Precious Metals Stocks Alert: Gold Powerful Upleg Believed Imminent / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Clive_Maund
Clive Maund analyzes the significant increase in Large Spec positions in gold and silver in the past week, and the gold stocks to gold ratio.
The significant increase in Large Spec long positions this past week in gold and silver from a very low level might be cause of concern to some, since it of course increases the risk of a reaction in these metals, but there is another much more positive way of looking at it, which is that, in the face of a continued albeit incremental rise in the prices of gold and silver, the Large Specs have suddenly realized their mistake in bailing out over the past couple of months, and are scrambling to get back on board.
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Monday, July 31, 2017
Why the Stock Market Must Fall Hard! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Brad_Gudgeon
I have been warning for over a week now about a coming waterfall decline. The wave counts and cycles are at the point where I believe it is a virtual impossibility for the market not to implode Monday for the biggest one day loss of the year.
This next chart shows the daily e-wave count:
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Monday, July 31, 2017
Stock Market Final Minor Correction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: Uptrend continues with a serious loss of upside momentum in weekly indicators.
SPX Intermediate trend: An ending pattern appears to be in its last stages of completion. This should be followed by an intermediate term correction into October.
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Monday, July 31, 2017
... / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
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Sunday, July 30, 2017
The Perfect Stock Market Crash Indicator Is Flashing Red / Stock-Markets / US Auto's
By: John_Rubino
What’s the last big toy you buy when things have been good for a really long time and you already have all the other toys? An RV, of course. A dubious thing to own if you already have a house, but when the good times seem likely to roll on forever, why the hell not?
And what’s the first thing you sell when you lose your job and your stocks are tanking? That very same RV. Which makes new RV sales a useful indicator of our place in the business cycle.
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Sunday, July 30, 2017
Hacker Cracks US Voting Machine - If Politics Seem Messy Now, Just Wait / ElectionOracle / US Politics
By: John_Rubino
It’s already widely understood that the electronic voting machines used by a growing number of US states are easy to hack. But just how easy may not be clear. Consider this from today’s Wall Street Journal:
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Sunday, July 30, 2017
368 TRILLION Reasons the Fed Won’t “Normalize” Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Graham_Summers
Many commentators are baffled as to why the Fed has suddenly reversed course. Throughout 2017 the Fed has talked repeatedly about raising rates several times as well as shrinking its balance sheet.
Then in the span of a single month, the Fed just about dropped all of this. Fed Chair Janet Yellen, speaking to Congress, confessed that the Fed is just about done with rate hikes and that any balance sheet reduction will NOT be used to drain liquidity from the system.
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