Sunday, April 24, 2022
Will the Fed Raising interest Rates Cause a Recession? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Richard_Mills
A recession is what results when an economy stops growing. The National Bureau of Economic Research, the group entrusted to call the beginning and end dates of a recession, defines it as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”
Economists define a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP, which is the total value of all goods and services a country produces.
We aren’t there yet, but the war between Russia and Ukraine has prompted a re-evaluation of the growth prospects for the world economy and some of the major players in it. According to CBC News, the International Monetary Fund is blaming the war for disrupting global commerce, pushing up oil prices, threatening food supplies and increasing uncertainty already heightened by the coronavirus.
The 190-country lender therefore slashed its global growth forecast to 3.6% this year and next.
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Sunday, April 24, 2022
Fed Chairman Powell Spooks the Market by Signaling 50 Point Rate Hike / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: MoneyMetals
Tough talk from the Fed roiled markets this past week, with stocks as well as precious metals getting hit.
On Thursday, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank intends to pursue a more rapid pace of interest rate increases. He indicated that a 50-basis point hike in May is likely.
Jerome Powell: We really are committed to using our tools to get 2% inflation back and I think if you look at, for example, if you look at the last tightening cycle, which was a two-year string of 25 basis point hikes from 2004 to 2006, inflation was a little over 3%. So, inflation's much higher now and our policy rate is still more accommodating than it was then. So, it is appropriate, in my view, to be moving a little more quickly. And I also think there's something in the idea of front-end loading, whatever accommodation one thinks is appropriate. So, that does point in the direction of 50 basis points being on the table, certainly. We make these decisions at the meeting and we'll make them meeting by meeting, but I would say that 50 basis points will be on the table for the May meeting.
Sunday, April 24, 2022
With Lidl Becoming a Shipowner, Should We Invest in Shipping? / Companies / Sector Analysis
By: Submissions
While commodity prices soar, is it worthwhile to consider investing in the logistics, maritime, and shipping industrial sectors, or is it too risky?
One of Europe's largest discount retailers has set up its own company, Tailwind Shipping Lines, to respond to container shortages. With annual profits of nearly 3 billion euros, the group has plenty of the necessary capital. The objective is to ensure the smooth flow of delivery chains for the group's supermarkets. On the other hand, with sanctions on Russian oil and gas, we could see more tankers crossing the oceans, containing liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Sunday, April 24, 2022
5 Work From Home Options For Teenagers / Personal_Finance / Money Making
By: Umer_Mahmood
It can be challenging for teenagers to find work in today's economy. With so many people out of work, businesses are often hesitant to hire new employees. It can leave young people struggling to find a way to make money.
If you're a teenager looking for ways to make money, don't worry! There are plenty of work-from-home options available that you can take advantage of.
This blog post will discuss five different work-from-home options perfect for teenagers!
Thursday, April 21, 2022
THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND - Protect Your Wealth From Loss of Purchasing Power / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Inflation has soared to a 30+ year high even on the highly manipulated CPLIE measure resulting in the biggest fall in living standards since records began for the UK and probably similar for US and most western households who are in for a deep real terms drop in disposable income during 2022, with the UK set for an eye watering record plunge of over £2200 per household. Which if you remained focused on the mainstream press then you would not have seen any of it coming having been hoodwinked for the whole of 2021 by the central bank mantra of 'transient inflation' which as I repeatedly warned would turn out to be PERMANENT. However the con merchants are now playing the blame everything on Russia game, as if inflation and all of the West woes were none existant until Putin delusionally marched his amateur army into Ukraine having believed his own lies echoed by his YES Men ensuring him that victory would come within days of invasion.
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Thursday, April 21, 2022
Stock Market Turning Around for Good? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 rose incessantly during the regular session but bonds don‘t yet confirm the decline would be over. So much hawkish noise (75bp hike next?), and tech keeps rising? Still a peculiar case of strength but a daily rotation out of energy stocks into tech can‘t be denied. I wouldn‘t yet jump to conclusions about lastingly improving market breadth though. The S&P 500 upswing may just take a few days more to run its course as the tightening heat hasn‘t yet played out. Powell talking tomorrow is a nice opportunity. Real assets will find it easy to recover from yesterday‘s daily setback – they had plenty of opportunities to decline before Feb 24th, yet tellingly didn‘t...
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Thursday, April 21, 2022
Global Stock Market Trends Continue To Push US Dollar & US Assets Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Every day seems filled with some new comment or data point that suggests the Global Market or the US Fed will aggressively attempt to burst the inflation bubble. Global central banks continue to warn that COVID, and other issues, persist. Traders seek some clarity and understanding of what’s going to happen next.
Will The US Stock Market Continue To Rally Higher?
Allow us to help you understand what is happening behind all these data points and news posts. We can understand key market components better by using specialized modeling systems that aim to distill market events into relatable trigger events within our strategies. This, in turn, helps us to better understand what may come next for the US markets.
We’ll focus on some of our Custom Indexes to better illustrate current market trends and conditions. These are examples of our Custom Smart Cash Index (a more global market custom index), our Commodity Price Index, and our Custom US Index (a focused US Custom Index).
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Thursday, April 21, 2022
FREETRADE Shares ISA and SIPP Platform Analysis - When do HMRC Contributions Land? / Personal_Finance / ISA's
By: Nadeem_Walayat
FREETRADE is a mobile phone operated ISA and SIPP investing platform, here I go through some of the key aspects that prospective users may want to know on how the platform functions and costs where for me personally I got the answer to the question of when HMRC contributions land into the FreeTrade SIPP account as the sales blurb is 7 to 11 weeks, so if you have also been sat wondering about HMRC contributions then here is your answer on that and much more.
If thinking of opening an account then if you follow my link WE BOTH get a FREE SHARE, all you need to do is deposit £1! As for the value of the free share? In my experience it's going to be around £10. But you might get lucky as it is a bit of lottery i.e. maybe 1 in 100 gets a £200 share? Most £3 - £50.
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Thursday, April 21, 2022
5 Tips When Investing As A Business / Companies / SME
By: Mark_Adan
One of the most motivating for a business owner is simply seeing their business thrive beyond their imagination. Such success only comes from the likes of hard work, determination, busy weekends and mornings, and tons of late-night calls. However, these things only matter when you finally start seeing the profits rolling in.
If you're excited and you want to do something with your extras, there are many solutions. However, some forms of recreation and even personal expenses can be a very unwise decision. As such, there are smarter options that allow you to grow the profits from your hard work. So, read on as we dive into 5 investing tips for businesses.
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Wednesday, April 20, 2022
Best Stocks and Shares ISA ISA for 2022 - FreeTrade, IG Index, II, IKBR, AJ Bell Compared / Personal_Finance / ISA's
By: Nadeem_Walayat
NUMBER CRUNCHING THE BEST STOCKS AND SHARES CASH ISA
NEW TAX YEAR NEW ISA and maybe an additional SIPP, though I have to keep in mind the lifetime LIMIT, currently at just over £1 million! ISA"s are the way to go, a no brainier for UK stock investors, continue upto 20k per person (40k per couples) annual allowance and can transfer in cash ISA's on top (which I still have too much of),
So BEFORE I opened my latest stocks and shares ISA, I did a number crunch to determine which is best, now there maybe some minor errors in this table but overall it gives a accurate picture that I used to make my decision of who to go with for 2022-23.
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Wednesday, April 20, 2022
If Gold Read the Tea Leaves, It Would See the Shape of a Bear / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Despite increased war tensions, gold failed to break above $2,000. What’s worse, rising USDX and interest rates are already lurking on the horizon.
The precious metals just performed exactly as they were likely to. Despite the increase in war tensions, PMs and miners reversed instead of rallying, which indicated that the rally has probably run its course. Since the tensions can now (most likely) either decline or stabilize, gold and silver prices will presumably fall right away, or after a while, as the market starts paying attention to gold’s two key fundamental drivers:
- the USD Index
- the real interest rates.
Both are inversely correlated with the price of gold, and both are on the rise. It’s therefore most likely only a matter of time before gold declines, and the same goes for silver and mining stocks. In fact, silver and mining stocks are likely to fall harder than gold, as they’ve been very weak in recent years anyway. Let’s not forget that while gold moved above its 2011 highs, silver and miners are well below the 50% retracement from their respective 2011 highs.
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Wednesday, April 20, 2022
This Usually Spells Trouble for the Stock Market (It's Happening Now) / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
"Even short term, diverging trends can signal an unhealthy market"
If you've been an investor for any appreciable length of time, no doubt you've noticed that all of the stock market indexes usually move in unison.
For example, when the Dow Industrials rally, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ usually do so too -- the same applies during a broad downtrend.
As the April 8 U.S. Short Term Update, a thrice weekly Elliott Wave International publication which provides near-term forecasts for key U.S. financial markets, notes:
Think of the final days of [the big down wave] in March 2009, at the end of the Dow's 54% decline from October 2007. Nearly every stock index made a low within days of March 9, 2009 -- blue chips, technology, small caps, transports, secondary stock indexes -- and all rallied in unison thereafter.
However, when stock indexes begin to diverge, this is usually a sign that the existing trend is about to reverse.
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Wednesday, April 20, 2022
Krishen Iyer shares why modernist marketing specialists are a good idea / Companies / SME
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Whether you like it or not, your company is going to need a marketing guy, or more fairly, a marketing person. Be warned though: it’s not always an easy sell for people who are used to doing things themselves, and/or those who try to run a tight financial ship. Krishen Iyer, the owner of MAIS Consulting, understands the reservations that some company or agency owners may have to either hire their own marketing help or hire a consultant to help with these duties.
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Tuesday, April 19, 2022
THE INFLATION MONSTER is Forecasting RECESSION / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
What if you could know the future, had a chart of the stock market that showed a high probability trend forecast into the middle of May 2022. We'll that's what my Patrons got in a market brief at the end of March 2022, a trend forecast right into the middle of May 2022.
Latest Update - The Stocks Stealth BEAR Market, AI Stocks Buying Levels Going Into Earnings
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Tuesday, April 19, 2022
Inflation, Commodities and Interest Rates : Paradigm Shifts in Macrotrends / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Rambus_Chartology
There are just a few times in ones investing career, depending how early you start and if you survive long enough, that you are witness to some extraordinary changes from the MACRO scale perspective. A few examples would be the beginning of the 1929 crash, the end of the secular bull market that was made in 2000 that began in 1974, the 1987 crash which is still the biggest one day percentage drop in stock market history of 23%. Then there was the banking and housing bubble that collapsed into the 2009 crash low which launched our current secular bull market in the stock markets which is now 13 years old.
Then there are more subtle changes in the macro world that are very rare which most investors or even economist don’t have the ability to recognize until they are well established. Eventually the change of trend is so great that one has to accept the fact and recognize it for what it is. In the beginning of a macro shift few believe it is really happening because the trend has been in place for so long that it seems normal and that is how markets work.
What I would like to show you today are several rare macro events that are going to change the world and in ways we may not understand right now, but changes are coming whether we like it or not. To think one person or a group of people can wave their magic wand and make everything the way it was before are in for a rude awakening. We are just now witnessing the birth of these macro trends that are going to be with us for many years into the future.
It is always hard in the beginning because most people don’t understand the changes and lash out to those in charge thinking they can make things right, but again that is wishful thinking. After a period of time has lapsed there will be an adjustment period and a new norm will be established. For those that understand the macro shifts will do well with their investments, but for those that are unwilling to adapt to the new environment will find it much harder and blame everyone and everything for their underperformance or outright failure.
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Tuesday, April 19, 2022
FACEBOOK Stock 45% CRASH - Game Over for META? / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Facebook (META) stock price has CRASHED by over 45%! Far beyond anything anyone could have imagined the stock price could trade down to. So no wonder many investors are now too frightened to hit the BUY button given the epic collapse in the stock price fearing that it could be game over for this social media giant as it places it's bets on reinventing itself as a metaverse giant. So is it a case of game over and all those who bought ont he way down now destined to lose all in a dying stock despite the stock now trading on just 15X earnings?
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Tuesday, April 19, 2022
Around the World's Risks and Opportunities with Elliott Waves / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
By: EWI
Hi,
A "smart" investor knows more than how to pick a stock. Truly smart investors look at stocks...and bonds...and cryptos...and commodities -- to understand the BIG picture.
Only then a certain wisdom emerges that helps you make truly informed, truly smart decisions.
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Monday, April 18, 2022
Stock Market FOMO Gives Way to FEAR of Buying the Dip / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock Market Investor FOMO of barely a month ago on expectation of a blow off top that most clinged onto during the first few weeks of this sell off is now increasingly giving way to FEAR of an inexplicable never ending slide into the depths of a 2000 style bear market. We'll the Cathy Wood style stocks have been on that path for approaching a year now so perhaps not much downside in those, then again they still are what they were a year ago, NO EARNINGS GARBAGE!
However FEAR is infectious especially for the weak hands, those who where once eager to buy now FEAR perpetual falling prices that results in a state of paralysis. THIS IS WHAT IT ACTUALLY FEELS LIKE TO INVEST IN A FALLING MARKET! Something that is not apparent when looking at the price charts at tops and bottoms where one could easily have bought and sold with the be benefit of hindsight, yeah we'll maybe if one switched OFF the information flow that generates the GREED and FEAR that encourages buying at the top and inaction at the bottom!
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Monday, April 18, 2022
The Witchy Trio: Commodities Supercycle, Inflation, and… Recession? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Submissions
If the current market phenomena were to star in a Shakespeare drama, they would be ideal candidates for the Three Witches. Can you guess who would play who?
Have you ever heard of Shakespeare’s mythological characters, the Three Witches? They are depicted as prophets who represent evil, darkness, chaos, and conflict.
If you look at the market today, you will find ideal candidates for these dark roles. However, while rising commodity prices and inflation have a casting win in their pocket, there is no certain actor to play the third witch. Would the recession stand a chance?
No Easter eggs today – instead, here is a story that may provide food for thought.
Monday, April 18, 2022
The myth of PH’s bankruptcy and “Chinese debt slavery” / Interest-Rates / Asian Economies
By: Dan_Steinbock
In 2017, Forbes reported that President Duterte will force Philippines into China’s debt slavery and bankrupt the economy by 2022. The fake story was promoted heavily by international and Philippine media. The question is, why?In May 2017, Forbes released a column that claimed that “New Philippine Debt of $167 Billion Could Balloon To $452 Billion: China Will Benefit.” It was written by Anders Corr, who was portrayed as an “independent” geopolitical risk analyst.
“Over 10 years,” Corr boldly predicted, “that could balloon Philippines’ debt-to-GDP ratio as high as 296%, the highest in the world.” Fueled by expensive loans from China," he said, "Dutertenomics will put the Philippines into virtual debt bondage.”
At the time, I argued that Corr’s prediction was idiotic and up to 240-250 percentage points off. Yet, it was quoted widely both internationally and in the Philippines.
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