Monday, September 26, 2016

Trump Betting Odds Narrow Going into 1st Presidential Debate Suggesting Trump Win / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The 1st of 3 presidential debates will be held in a few hours time going into which Hillary leads across a wide spectrum of indicators from polling, political pundits, electoral college forecasters such as Nate Silver who give Hillary a 60% probability of winning the election, and of course the bookmakers who have Hillary Clinton as the clear favourite with Donald Trump as a 2-1 outsider.

Monday, September 26, 2016

What Blows Up First, Deutsche Bank? / Companies / Credit Crisis 2016

By: John_Rubino

Calling Wall Street’s banks stupid and dangerous is like calling the sun “big and warm.” It’s a clear understatement of an obvious fact. The same goes for calling Japan and China economically clueless. Their actions pretty much guarantee that they’ll ultimately enter some sort of death spiral.

Monday, September 26, 2016

Gold’s Moving Averages and Long-Term Outlook / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold moved about $30 last week and many investors view this fact as a bullish sign and indication that much higher gold prices are likely to follow. Is this really the case? Let’s take a look at the gold charts (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):

Monday, September 26, 2016

September Stock Market - The Not So Silent Demise of Deutsche Bank / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Christopher_Quigley

Since May 2007 Deutsche Bank’s share has dropped from 175 US Dollars to 12 US Dollars (approx.) as we speak. Suddenly “the wires” are going viral with updates on the catastrophic state of the bank’s balance sheet. Here is what Kenny Polcari, of Morning Thought Blog” had to say today:

Deutsche Bank is leading the banks and banking indexes lower - as they dropped to a record low amid concerns that mounting legal bills associated with the sub-prime mortgage crisis, commodity (precious metals) trading and large money transfers out of Russia are all complicating the drama and may force the German lender to raise capital.  The stock fell by 7% - bringing ytd losses to 53%.

Monday, September 26, 2016

Here’s Why Trump Needs More Than the Popular Vote to Win This Election / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: John_Mauldin

By David Galland, Garret/Galland Research : While driving around Burlington, Vermont, I noticed something. Actually, I noticed something missing. There were zero bumper stickers in support of Hillary.

I didn’t see a single lawn sign either.

It’s quite a contrast. In the last two elections, the displays for Obama were everywhere.

Monday, September 26, 2016

SPX sell signal confirmed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Short-term support is now broken and the Cycle Bottom support at Head & Shoulders neckline are likely to be in play. SPX is on a confirmed sell signal. Today’s action may match that of September 9. Be on the lookout for a break of the neckline near 2130.00.

Monday, September 26, 2016

Donald Trump’s Electoral Struggle / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Antonius_Aquinas

After touting her pro-labor union record, the Wicked Witch of Chappaqua rhetorically asked, “why am I not 50 points ahead?” Her chief rival bluntly responded: “because you’re terrible.”* No truer words have been uttered by any of the candidates about one of their opponents since the start of this extraordinary presidential campaign!

Monday, September 26, 2016

SPX is testing the next level of support / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The SPX Premarket is challenging its Short-term support at 2156.02 and may open beneath it after closing beneath its 50-day Moving Average on Friday.

ZeroHedge reports, “While today's biggest event for both markets and politics will be tonight's highly anticipated first presidential debate between Trump and Hillary, markets are waking up to some early turmoil in both Asia and Europe, with declines in banks and energy producers dragging down stock-markets around the world, pushing investors to once again seek the safety of government bonds (and yes, flattening the JGB curve even more much to the chagrin of the BOJ) and the yen.”

Monday, September 26, 2016

Outrageously Entertaining US Presidential Campaign Final Stages - What Happens Next? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: James_Quinn

As this vitriolic, unpredictable, outrageously entertaining presidential campaign enters its final stages I find myself pondering what happens next. I was reminded of the last scene in the 1972 movie, The Candidate. The movie is about a young untested non-politician candidate for U.S. Senator in California who puts his fate in the hands of a veteran political operative and overcomes a double digit polling deficit to win a huge upset victory. His entire focus during the campaign was to win. In the final scene of the movie he is standing among the celebrating campaign staffers and the fawning press corp. with a befuddled look on his face. He grabs his political consultant campaign manager and pulls him into a room. As the press break into the room he asks, “What do we do now?” The question goes unanswered and the movie ends.

Monday, September 26, 2016

Wells Fargo or the Federal Reserve: Who's the Bigger Fraud? / Interest-Rates / Banksters

By: Dr_Ron_Paul

The Wells Fargo bank account scandal took center stage in the news last week and in all likelihood will continue to make headlines for many weeks to come. What Wells Fargo employees did in opening bank accounts without customers' authorization was obviously wrong, but in true Washington fashion the scandal is being used to deflect attention away from larger, more enduring, and more important scandals.

Monday, September 26, 2016

BoJ, FOMC and Where To Now? / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Gary_Tanashian

The Bank of Japan gave us a glimpse as to just how far down the rabbit hole we may have to follow global policy makers as we try to make sense of ever more complex and shall we say, innovative ‘tools’ being used in the effort to engineer individual economies and asset markets within the global financial system. BoJ announced it would conduct “JGB purchase operations” in order to “prevent the yield curve from deviating substantially from the current levels”.

The market initially interpreted this to mean BoJ stood in support of a rising yield curve, which would for example, help the banks (ref. MTU and SMFG, which exploded higher off of the support levels we had projected), but by the end of the week the Japanese Yield Curve had eased substantially and there seemed to be confusion about what the policy’s intent, or would-be effects, actually were. I wonder if the BoJ even fully knows what it is doing now. Lots of moving parts in a complex system.

Monday, September 26, 2016

Stock Market New Downtrend Or Just Downward Correction Before Another Leg Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Monday, September 26, 2016

Stock Market New All Time Highs Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Paul_Rejczak

The week started at SPX 2139. The market rallied, after a gap up opening, to SPX 2154 on Monday. Then after the opening gap was closed on Monday the market finished unchanged. This sequence continued on Tuesday: gap up opening- close gap. On Wednesday another gap up opening-close gap sequence occurred, but during the FOMC statement/press conference the market rallied. The rallied continued to SPX 2180 on Thursday after another gap up opening, then pulled back to 2164 on Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.4%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.4%. Economic reports for the week were sparse and mostly negative. On the downtick: housing starts, building permits, existing home sales, leading indicators and the Q3 GDP estimate. On the uptick: the NAHB, FHFA and weekly jobless claims improved. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by Q2 GDP, the PCE and the Chicago PMI. Best to your week!

Monday, September 26, 2016

UK Property Equity Release Mortgage Customers Have Never Been Better Served / Housing-Market / Mortgages

By: MoneyFacts

Competition amongst equity release lenders has clearly intensified in recent years and it is now at a point where perspective equity release customers have never been better served in terms of choice and interest rates, according to the latest research by Moneyfacts.

In fact, there are now a total of 75 different lifetime mortgage equity release deals available, covering a wide spread of options and loan-to-values (LTVs), an increase of 63% on the number of deals available a year ago and more than double the total number three years ago.

Monday, September 26, 2016

Why Trump Will Win US General Election 2016 Prediction Forecast / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

There's definitely something in air across the western world which may not go as far as be classed as a revolution but at the very least 'rebellion', of where the mass of ordinary people are rebelling against the ruling establishment elite who have had an increasing grip on power through institutions and the media for at least the past 40 years as evidenced by the fact that the gap between the rich and rest has widened in virtually every year for the past 40 years, reaching levels not seen since before the second world war, ripe for rebellion even mass uprisings.

Monday, September 26, 2016

Martial Law Rolls Out Across the US As Jubilee Nears / Politics / US Politics

By: Jeff_Berwick

As we enter into the last week before the end of the Jubilee Year, the National Guard has been deployed in Charlotte, North Carolina and massive military convoys have been deployed in the streets of New York City.

This is a continuation of last summer’s Jade Helm seven-state military exercise that many in the area saw as a prelude to military occupation. After Jade Helm  came the US Army Special Operations Command’s Unconventional Warfare Exercise 16 (UWEX 16) that ran in Texas through June.

Sunday, September 25, 2016

Stock Market More Correction Likely / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend: The long-term trend is up but weakening.  Potential final phase of bull market.

SPX Intermediate trend:  The uptrend from 1810 continues, but it has entered a corrective phase.

 Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Sunday, September 25, 2016

Black NFL Atheletes - Why Stand for a Country That Can Gun You Down in Cold Blood? / Politics / US Politics

By: Mike_Whitney

If black athletes in the NFL honestly think that African Americans who live under Old Glory are as ‘equally protected ‘as whites, then they should stand up during the national anthem and sing-along. But if they know that blacks aren’t getting a square deal,  and that blacks can be gunned down at any time by trigger-happy cops who never face the consequences, then they owe it to themselves and their country to demand change by remaining seated.

Sunday, September 25, 2016

Brad, Angelina, and the News Media / Politics / Mainstream Media

By: Walter_Brasch

The New York Post, a Rupert Murdoch tabloid publication that isn’t likely to win a Pulitzer Prize anytime soon, splashed a full page picture of a smiling Jennifer Anniston on its Sept. 21 front cover. In the upper left-hand space it placed all-capitals text: “BRANGELINA 2004–2016.” Inside the Post were four full consecutive pages, and a half page and part of a column deeper in the newspaper, all devoted to one of the most critical social issues facing the country—Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie are getting a divorce.

Sunday, September 25, 2016

US Presidential Election Forecast 2016 - Trump Riding BrExit Wave into the White House / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

There's definitely something in the air in many nations across the western world which may not go as far as be classed as a revolution but at the very least 'rebellion', of where the mass of ordinary people are rebelling against the ruling establishment elite who have had an increasing grip on power through institutions and the media for at least the past 40 years as evidenced by the fact that the gap between the rich and rest has widened in virtually every year for the past 40 years, reaching levels not seen since before the second world war, ripe for rebellion even mass uprisings. The middle classes and working poor have had enough of being systematically turned into slaves in the service of the ruling elite, now in open rebellion as the supposed peoples power has effectively been transferred over to the corporations, bankers and billionaires who like Zuckerberg engage in publicity stunts of donating a few billion dollars here and there in an attempt to mask the magnitude of their greed. If the likes of Gates and Zuckerberg really wanted to help ordinary people then they would pay their fair share of tax rather than the pittance that allows them to amass obscenely huge fortunes.