Monday, February 22, 2016
US Dollar and The Global 'Peg Pain Trade' / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gordon_T_Long
Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long analyze, with 25 slides, the strength in the US Dollar and what we can likely expect going forward.
Both see a strong dollar in the future as it becomes, more and more a flight to safety associated with failed monetary / fiscal policies, weakening current accounts and slowing trade around the world. It isn't that the US$ is a paragon of virtue and value, but rather the "least ugly".
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Monday, February 22, 2016
Silver Underperforms Gold in Early Stages of Bull Markets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Clive_Maund
In the early part of Precious Metal bullmarkets, gold performs better than silver, but in the latter part silver outperforms gold. The reason is that the early part of bullmarkets in the sector are characterized by more serious and sober value oriented investors, whereas the latter part is characterized by momentum traders and speculators trying to make a fast buck, and they are attracted by the high leverage of silver relative to gold. This is the reason that the giant ramp in silver in the opening months of 2011 to a final parabolic slingshot peak in April - May signaled that it was all over, many months before gold itself topped out.
Monday, February 22, 2016
Gold Price Finally Breaking Out to Commence a Major Bull Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Clive_Maund
This has been a momentous month for gold, with it finally breaking out of its long downtrend to commence a major bullmarket. Thus it is amusing to see Goldman Sachs talking about it dropping back to $1000 again. Those timorously wondering whether they are right should stop and ask themselves whose interests are paramount to Goldman, the government and Wall St, or the Little Guy trying to protect what's left of his capital. Those still in doubt should read Goldman Capitulates .
We have been wondering over the past week whether gold and silver have been starting to mark out bull Flags or whether they are instead at intermediate tops. That question is answered for us by the latest COTs which reveal that Commercial short positions have exploded in recent weeks, particularly in silver, where they are now at "nosebleed levels". We therefore now expect a correction, which could be quite heavy - so Curb your Enthusiasm, people. When it happens don't be fooled into thinking that the bearmarket is back on and Goldman is right. Instead take the opportunity to back up the truck and load up on PM sectors investments, many of which have risen too far too fast in recent weeks.
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Monday, February 22, 2016
Stock Market Phase Correction In Progress / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Severe correction underway.
SPX: Intermediate trend - Phase correction in process.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Monday, February 22, 2016
Japan Has Officially Lost Control of Its Financial System / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016
By: Graham_Summers
For over six years, the markets have been moving based on Central Banker actions and words.
The first phase (2009 to 2013) was dominated by action (ZIRP and QE).
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Sunday, February 21, 2016
Boris Johnson Joins LEAVE, BrExit Camp - Tory Rats Leaving Sinking REMAIN in EU Ship / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Boris Johnson woke up today and smelled the coffee that the British public are going to ignore the propaganda of the Westminister elite and instead vote for FREEDOM from the emerging undemocratic and corrupt European Superstate, and so Boris ignored David Cameron's increasingly desperate pleading to declare himself as now being in the LEAVE camp. Which follows a handful of senior ministers who declared yesterday and probably represent the vanguard of many more Tory rats to choose to LEAVE the Tory REMAIN sinking ship, that will likely see their captain, David Cameron's premiership go down with it.
Sunday, February 21, 2016
Gold Has Outperformed Stocks Since… 1967!?!?! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Graham_Summers
Almost every other day I read an article telling me that owning Gold is dumb or that Gold is doomed as an investment.
These articles would be useful or insightful if they weren’t based on “analysis” that is either misleading or downright wrong.
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Sunday, February 21, 2016
Why This Financial Crisis Will Be Worse Than 2008 / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016
By: Graham_Summers
For six years, the world has operated under a complete delusion that Central Banks somehow fixed the 2008 Crisis.
All of the arguments claiming this defied common sense. A 5th grader would tell you that you cannot solve a debt problem by issuing more debt. Similarly, anyone with a functioning brain could tell you that a bunch of academics with no real-world experience, none of whom have ever started a business or created a single job can’t “save” the economy.
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Sunday, February 21, 2016
Venezuela's Gold Heads East - Ubi Caritas / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Jesse
"We suspect that shorting gold has come to seem like a riskless proposition as long as there is confidence in the Fed. Synthetic gold is the perfect substance for a carry trade: an easy borrow with very low carrying cost and little upside basis risk. Such a hypothesis, in our opinion, does much to explain the incongruity of a declining gold price while fundamentals for paper currency, and the U.S. dollar in particular, obviously deteriorate; while demand for physical gold has exceeded new mine supply for several years running; and while above-ground 400-ounce .995-gold bars located in London, New York, and other financial capitals (in cohabitation with speculative trading activity in paper markets) have steadily dwindled and disappeared into Asian financial centers reformulated as .9999 kilo bars."
Sunday, February 21, 2016
The Gold Bull Is Just Getting Started - Video / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Gary_Savage
The latest crutch used by the bears is that the COT reports are bearish so gold is going back down. That is not necessarily the case if a new bull market has begun.
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Sunday, February 21, 2016
EU Referendum - The British People vs Establishment, Bankster's and Westminister Elite / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum
By: Nadeem_Walayat
David 'Chamberlain' Cameron returned from Brussels on Saturday to proudly stand outside 10 Downing Street and wave a piece of paper proclaiming 'Reforms in Our Time' to a skeptical British audience who have witnessed the farce of the past week that had seen each member state whittling down what were already pretty feeble proposals from David Cameron so as to prevent the 'contagion' of other EU member states following the same path as Britain which I likened to the EU effectively putting a gun to their head and then proceeding to pull the trigger, and so this is likely to turn out to mark the start of the end of the European Union.
Sunday, February 21, 2016
Stock Market Drop Likely Monday, Gold Price Topping? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Brad_Gudgeon
The technicals, cycles and astro-read suggest a high probability of a severe drop in the stock market Monday to as low as the low/mid SPX 1840’s. The SPX likely completed the 100 TD low 16 TD’s on February 11. The SPY grid lines below shows lines of support and resistance.
Sunday, February 21, 2016
India Stock Market BSE SENSEX Bombay's Last Hurrah / Stock-Markets / India
By: Austin_Galt
The BSE SENSEX is the Indian stock index which trades out of Mumbai or Bombay for those with a sense of nostalgia. Price hit a low of 22600 on the 12th February 2016 which was just over 24% down from the 2015 high of 30024.
So, is that the end of the bear market? In my opinion, the answer is both yes and no. What? That sounds like I'm having a bob each way which is not uncommon for many technical analysts, I dare say!
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Sunday, February 21, 2016
UEFA Champions League Football 2016 Free Tickets, Easy Win Walkers Crisps Prizes / Personal_Finance / Freebies and Comps
By: Adnaan_Walayat
The UEFA Champions League has Walkers crisps running an easy to win promotion that’s giving away about 50 tickets to UEFA Champions League football matches for 2016 and 40,000 other prizes such as t-shirts, footballs and sharing bowls.
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Saturday, February 20, 2016
Stocks Bear Market Rally Continues / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Tony_Caldaro
An eventful holiday shortened week. The market started the week on Tuesday at SPX 1865. After gap up openings on Tuesday/Wednesday the SPX reached 1931. After that it pulled back to 1902 on Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 2.7%, NDX/NAZ gained 3.7%, and the DJ World index gained 3.8%. Economics reports for the week were again biased negative. On the uptick: the PPI, industrial production, capacity utilization, GDPn, plus weekly jobless claims were lower. On the downtick: NY/Philly FED, NAHB, housing starts, building permits, leading indicators and the WLEI. Next week we get the second estimate to Q4 GDP, the PCE, and more housing reports.
Saturday, February 20, 2016
Gold And Silver – Charts Only / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Michael_Noonan
We are strong advocates of the charts providing the best and most reliable information. Even the most respected gold and silver experts do not know when the effects of globalist bankers' manipulation will lose their impact. Each week is one week closer to a final resolve, but no one knows if there are 2 more weeks, 20 more weeks or how much longer price can continue sideways to lower in a bottoming process.
Back on the 6th of February, we posited that there was no bottom confirmed, [See Is A Bottom In? Nothing Confirmed , if you missed the article.], and we maintain that there has not been any identified market activity that suggests a final bottom for the current multi- year correction lower. This week, we focus strictly on the charts.
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Saturday, February 20, 2016
Silver Price Trend Forecast - Silver has more work to do.. / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Submissions
Goldvybe writes: While I primarily analyze and trade gold, I do tend to look at the action in silver as the sister metal can provide us with some very interesting clues about where gold is headed next. Over the years the Commitment of Traders (COT) report which is released at the end of each trading week by the CFTC can alert us to some very interesting developments in the precious metals markets.
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Saturday, February 20, 2016
OPEC Lost the Shale-Oil-War: Deflation Looms / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_Butter
In the unspoken plan to shut down what the oil-aristocrats called, “high cost producers”, let’s call that the Shale-Oil-War, the war-word was never mentioned. But it was war and there were casualties, Big-Time. There will be more bankruptcies in the Exploration and Production (E&P) sector and painful write-downs by the banks who supported it; many once oil-rich countries have been pushed into recession and the ripples are traveling down the value chain...there are long lines of cold-stacked brand-new drilling barges built on credit, closed steel plants and the mines that fed them, all the way through to the FAO Food-price Index that tracks oil prices. No wonder China is in some sort of recession, they were the final assembly point for a good part of the stuff you need to get oil out of the ground.
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Saturday, February 20, 2016
Stock Market Sentiment...Looking At The Technical World..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jack_Steiman
The market is showing some very interesting pattern set-ups on the daily index charts. The oscillators on the attempted pullback on those daily charts are holding nicely with many of the bear market stocks not showing a move lower on those oscillators as their price pulls back. A sign of many bear-market stocks bottoming? It could very well be, but that answer only comes with certainty when we experience the next strong down move. So far so good. Many stocks are in very deep bear markets, even though our indexes are not. Individual stocks from all over the stock-market world are experiencing some horrific moves lower. There are some signs based on positive divergences that this process may be in the very beginning stages of turning around.
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Saturday, February 20, 2016
When Will Gold and Gold Stocks Correct? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Wednesday evening we raised a question in a subscriber update. We wrote: The current question for Gold and gold stocks is if they will push to higher targets before or a correction or if a correction has already started. We should know the answer in the next day or two. The gold stocks exploded higher on Thursday. GDX gained 6% while GDXJ surged 7.4%. Meanwhile, Gold solidified its support at $1200/oz. Markets that become overbought within strong trends can become extremely overbought before they correct. Recent price action in the precious metals complex argues that the path of least resistance in the short term continues to be higher.