Thursday, December 05, 2019
Manufacturing Goes Deeper Into Recession, Yet Gold Remains Muted. Why? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The ISM Manufacturing index fell 0.2 point to a reading of 48.1 in November. However, gold struggles to find momentum. What is going on exactly?
U.S. Manufacturing Sector Slumps Further
The Institute for Supply Management announced that its index of national factory activity dropped from 48.3 in October to 48.1 last month. The number was below expectations and it also remained below the 50 threshold, indicating contraction – shrinking for the fourth straight month. In other words, the manufacturing sector is still in recession.
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Thursday, December 05, 2019
Gold Will Not Surpass Its 1980 Peak / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Kelsey_Williams
When gold’s price reached $850 per ounce in January 1980, it seemed as if nothing would stop the runaway train that was headed straight for $1000 per ounce. But it was stopped, and began sliding downhill quickly.
By June 1982, two and one-half years later, gold’s price had declined by sixty-five percent. At close to $300 per ounce, the price of gold seemed farther away from the $1000 mark than ever before.
At $300 per ounce, the eventual low for gold of $250 was a short distance away. But that downside price did not come until seventeen years later, in late 1999. As far as $1000 gold is concerned, that did not occur until September 2009, almost thirty years after gold peaked at $850 in January 1980.
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Thursday, December 05, 2019
UK House Prices Most Accurate Predictor of UK General Elections - 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In this series of videos in the countdown to polling day, December 12th conclude in a detailed seats forecast for the Torys, Labour, Lib Dems and SNP, analysis and forecasts based on 9 key lessons learned from the 2017 general election that I covered in an earlier video where as the opinion polls have consisnteyl been wrong for now 4 UK elections in a row and thus should be ignored whilst the actual most accurate preduictor of UK elections has consistently been my house prices based forecasts and average earnings growth. For this election the 9 key lessons learned resolve into 5 pieces of in-depth analysis that aim to accuratelty forecast the outcome of the December 12th Vote.
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Thursday, December 05, 2019
7 Year Cycles Can Be Powerful And Gold Just Started One / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research and predictive modeling systems have nailed Gold over the past 15+ months. We expected Gold to rally above $1750 before the end of this year, but the global trade wars and news cycles stalled the rally in Gold over the past 2 months. Now, it appears Gold is poised for another rally pushing much higher.
But wait, if you’re thinking I’m just another one of those traders who is always bullish on gold, just know I have been telling the truth about where gold was headed (lower) for years, but finally, the tide has changed!
Gold broke down from a bull market in 2012/2013 – nearly 7 years ago. Now, Gold has broken resistance near $1375 and is technically in a full-fledged Bull Market. The importance of this is the 7-year cycle and how the rotation in Gold, between the high near $1923 and the low near $1045 represent an $878 price range. The upside (expansion) rally in Gold may very well move in expanding Fibonacci price structures – just like it did in 2005 through 2012. If this is the case, then we may expect to see an ultimate peak price in Gold well above $3500.
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Thursday, December 05, 2019
Lib Dems Winning Election Leaflets War Against Labour - Sheffield Hallam 2019 / ElectionOracle / Sheffield
By: N_Walayat
The Lib Dems have declared war on Britain's letter boxes by stuffing them full with leaflets, many of which are a bit dodgy!
This is especially the case for those living in the Sheffield Hallam constituency where there is a battle between Labour and the Lib Dems that is likely to see Labour lose their seat to the Lib Dems after the disastrous term of Jared O' Mara. That follows the disaster that is the city council and it's anti climate change policy of felling thousands of Sheffield's street trees.
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Thursday, December 05, 2019
Do you like to venture out? Test yourself and see what we propose for you / Personal_Finance / Gambling
By: Submissions
On average an employed adult works, as his weekly total working hours, 160 hours per month and most of them do not know what to do for the remaining 136 hours, given that he also sleeps 8 hours per month. night.Many think it is because they do not have time or because they are not economically sustainable that they do not venture out of the comfort of their home to create unforgettable memories and memories. Will it be?
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Thursday, December 05, 2019
Great Ways To Make Money Over Time / Personal_Finance / Money Making
By: Submissions
Everybody wants to make more money. With today’s inflation rates and living expenses, you can’t expect to live comfortably without having to earn extra income on top of your monthly salary.Fortunately, the gig economy has paved the way for full-time professionals to acquire an additional income stream by completing tasks for other people. It’s the perfect setup for those who don’t want to let go of the stability that their day job provides them while they earn extra during their downtime.
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Wednesday, December 04, 2019
Calculating Your Personal Cost If Stock, Bond and House Prices Return To Average / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Dan_Amerman
We currently have well above average prices for stocks, bonds and homes. This raises a simple question - what would happen to the average retirement account and to home equity for the average homeowner, if valuations were to return to what long term averages show us are normal valuations?
Using decades of valuation information on stocks, bonds and homes, this analysis develops numbers in each category that show how much of current national stock, bond and home prices represents average values, and how much is a premium above normal valuations.
Using those historical values and the illustration of an example homeowner and retirement account investor, it is demonstrated that the current premium is around 59% above long term average valuations. How the loss of such a premium could have life changing implications for tens of millions of homeowners and retirement account investors is reviewed.
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Wednesday, December 04, 2019
America’s “Full Employment” Hides a Dirty Secret / Economics / Employment
By: John_Mauldin
Should just being “employed” make people/workers happy?
On one level, any job is better than no job. But we also derive much of our identities and self-esteem from our work.
If you aren’t happy with it, you’re probably not happy generally.
Unhappy people can still vote and are often easy marks for shameless politicians to manipulate. Their spending patterns change, too.
So it ends up affecting everyone and everything.
Wednesday, December 04, 2019
Will Labour Government Plant More Tree's than Council's Like Sheffield Fell? / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: N_Walayat
Labour's manifesto promise is to plant 2 billion trees by 2040 is clearly a figure plucked out of this air much like most of Labour's manifesto. Still if Labour managed to achieve even half that target that it would be an huge achievement. However there is a fly in the ointment and that is the behaviour of inept Labour councils across Britain such as Sheffield's who over the past few years have been on a TREE FELLING rampage, trees that have been felled in their thousands are typically equivalent in volume to about 200 saplings planted, many of which fail to survive.
Sheffield has seen virtually every tree lined street hit by chainsaw massacres.
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Wednesday, December 04, 2019
What the UK Economy GDP Growth Rate Predicts for General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's the economy stupid! coined by Bill Clinton's strategist James Carville in 1992. The party in government tends to lose elections to the opposition on the basis of where the economy stands at the time of the general election. So whilst Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" headline grabbing mantra sounds like it could deliver the Tories enough votes to win. However, if the economy is on the slide then all slogans and promises will be ignored, much as was the case for Theresa May's 2017 all about getting Brexit done election campaign.
So the focus of this analysis is where the economy stands and it's direction of travel relative to where economy stood in the run up to the June 2017 General Election as one of the 9 key election forecasting lessons learned from the outcome of the 2017 general election.
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Wednesday, December 04, 2019
Gold, Silver and Stock Market Big Picture: Seat Belts Tightened / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger offers his latest insights into the markets and his investment strategy as 2019 winds down.
"Gold is money; everything else is credit." —J.P. Morgan
Dating back to the mid-80s, and usually around the end of November, I begin to formulate strategies and portfolios looking out to the upcoming New Year, taking into account technical, fundamental and geopolitical factors in an effort to avoid career-ending draw-downs while posting a respectable degree of performance.
Being a player in both the commodity and equity arenas, it is no surprise that over the past forty years of covering precious metals and stocks, the landscape has changed in a manner that defies the term "evolution." A better term to describe the metamorphosis in the credit and equity markets, particularly since 2009, would be the use of the term "deformation," as government-sponsored intervention has thrown a toxic curve ball at the analytical batter's box. The days where charts of the Dow Jones and five-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth could be coupled with few bank-generated reports on the economy to arrive at a bullish/bearish stance are gone forever, joining the dodo bird and human traders on the list of extinct species. Whereas the two primary drivers of market volatility used to be fear and greed, the only driver left today is policy, as in central bank usage of financial markets to govern final demand.
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Wednesday, December 04, 2019
Elephant in the Room: Why Nobody Talks About Ballooning Federal Deficits / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: MoneyMetals
The presidential race will mesmerize Americans over the next 11 months. The country hasn’t been this polarized since the Civil War.
Voters on the left desperately want a story which undermines support for President Trump. They are also searching for a candidate who can actually win.
Many Republicans are outraged about the Deep State and corporate media campaign obsession with unseating a duly elected president – and they worry an avowed socialist could win the Democratic primary and, just possibly, the general election.
Wednesday, December 04, 2019
Online Presence: What You Need to Know About What Others Know About You / Personal_Finance / Gambling
By: Submissions
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Wednesday, December 04, 2019
New Company Tip: How To Turn Prospects into Customers with CRM Tech / Companies / SME
By: Submissions
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Tuesday, December 03, 2019
About To Relive The 2007 US Housing Market Real Estate Crash Again? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Does history repeat itself? Are price patterns and chart patterns reliable enough to suggest that a global Real Estate market collapse may be set up? What would it take for another Real Estate collapse to take place in today’s global market?
First, let’s start with this simple chart highlighting the “Bear Flag” setup from 2007 and the current 2019 Bear Flag setup. This price pattern was enough of an early warning sign for our research team to run into our offices and tell us of the exciting pattern they just identified regarding Real Estate and what they thought could happen. We listened to them share their ideas and concepts of how we have 11 months to go before the 2020 US Presidential election takes place and how higher risk delinquencies and foreclosures are starting to spike. They suggested the political theater of the global markets and US election cycle will likely distract from the weakening economic cycle which could present enough “smoke and mirrors” to keep investors’ attention away from this potential collapse in the housing market.
Much like a magician attempts to distract you just long enough to pull of their new trick, could the political theater, global economic news cycles and the never-ending battle in Washington DC be just enough of a distraction that skilled traders miss this critical setup? We hope not.
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Tuesday, December 03, 2019
How Far Will Gold Reach Before the Upcoming Reversal? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Just when most traders thought that the previous week is going to end in the red for gold, something exceptional happened. The USD Index reversed after rallying, and gold rallied sharply in response. In the end, gold ended the week in the green by forming a clear weekly reversal.
That was actually the second weekly reversal that we saw recently. Why is this important? Because of what happened shortly after we saw the opposite of it not so long ago.
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Tuesday, December 03, 2019
Crude Oil Price Sliding Faster Than You Can Blink / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Crude oil futures declined sharply on Friday. The steep slide’s result was a breakdown below the lower border of the rising green trend channel. As the prices closed the day below the formation, it’s clearly a bearish development.
Despite this setback, the bulls opened the week with a green gap, which has triggered modest improvement in the following hours. The bulls are fighting to invalidate the earlier breakdown below the green trend channel, and have reached the lower border of the blue consolidation on intraday basis. Prices have pulled back since though, and are currently trading at around $56.00.
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Tuesday, December 03, 2019
Is The Current Stock Market Rally A True Valuation Rally or Euphoria? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team has been warning that the US stock market price rally over the past few months has been more of a zombie-land price rally than a true valuation rally. Our researchers believe the continued push higher has been more about capital seeking safety away from foreign risk and into US Dollar based assets than it has been about anything fundamental or valuation based. Over the past few days, our researchers identified another rally like this that happened recently and wanted to highlight the eventual outcome of this type of Zombie-Rally. Before you continue, take a couple of seconds and join our free trend signals email list.
Zombie-Rallies happen in the market when there are really no other alternatives but to “keep doing what seems to have been successful over the past few months or years”. A good example of this is the DOT COM rally that continued to push higher and higher even though investors and traders could clearly see the wheels were coming off the train and companies were not able to achieve profits to measure up to proper valuations. This is a measure of GREED becoming a driving force behind investor sentiment. Who’s going to go against the markets when the trend bias is continuing to push higher and the risks of shorting far outweigh the risks associated with following the herd.
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Tuesday, December 03, 2019
Why Shale Oil Not Viable at $45WTI Anymore, OPEC Can Dictate Price Again / Commodities / Shale Oil and Gas
By: Andrew_Butter
Why Shale was once Viable at $45WTI but it’s not anymore. That’s why OPEC can dictate the price again.
- Some shale operators now say they can’t make money at $55; so they are cutting-back. But in 2017 when WTI averaged $50; output-growth was 60% higher than today. How come?
- In 2015, five-hundred frac-spreads, bought and paid for; some from profits, many at fire-sale; were idle; so day-rates plunged; and so, helped by multi-pads and cheap sand, shale re-booted.
- In June 2019 all those spreads were working. But now, for shale to continue to grow, more are needed. Except at $55 operators can’t pay the pumpers the day-rates they need to buy new.
- CAT is crying and Halliburton is stacking; holding-out for better rates. Rig count has plunged; there’s no point drilling if you can’t find a cheap frac-spread to complete.
- Now OPEC & Co can push the price up to $75 WTI without fear of sparking a third boom. But they may make the mistake they made in 2015; trying to kill-off shale. If they do, they will fail.
Over the past year the penny that shale-oil output growth was going down, not up, finally dropped for most commentators (1-to-7). Although EIA, IEA, OPEC and Rystad Energy are all sticking with their predictions for a 900,000 bpd or so build in shale production in 2020 (8-to-10). They say the slump in growth which started in June 2018, was because of pipeline constraints in Permian (11). But those were fixed in December 2018, yet output-growth kept going down.
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