Sunday, October 27, 2019
Latin America Sinks Under The Weight Of Its Third-Rate Currencies / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Latin America is plagued with many endemic economic problems. As a result, slow growth and economic instability are the order of the day. Latin America is sinking. In the grand scheme of things, it’s become irrelevant.
When it comes to listing culprits that account for the zombie growth rates in Latin America, the laundry list usually includes: high levels of corruption, a weak application of the rule of law, poor public services, a lack of public safety, and so on.
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Sunday, October 27, 2019
Land Rover Discovery Sport Car Money Saving - OBD2 Diagnostic Port Location DIY Diagnosis / Personal_Finance / Motoring
By: HGR
As soon as my Discovery Sports 3 year manufacturer warranty is up, up popped the dreaded yellow engine management warning light prompting a visit to the local land rover dealer for a diagnosis that they said would cost £150 if the my extended warranty (a few months under approved used) was rejected. £150! just to read the codes! Likely it will be much cheaper at a local garage, maybe £50 to £75. This prompted me to go on the hunt for my own ODB2I ECU reader, one that is likely to work with a Land Rover Discovery Sport. But first to take a look at the OBD2 port / socket so as to ensure whatever I buy actually fits the port which this video illustrates.
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Saturday, October 26, 2019
The Fed’s “Not QE” Is Morphing into “QE4ever” / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: MoneyMetals
Another week, another new and expanded repo market intervention by the Federal Reserve. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York intervened twice with fresh liquidity injections. Fed officials raised their offerings for overnight repos up from $75 billion to a staggering $120 billion.
This comes on top of the $60 billion per month in Treasury bill purchases that will extend well into next year and possibly beyond. Over the past month alone, the Fed's balance sheet has soared by $200 billion.
You might think numbers like these should be quite alarming to investors and to anyone who holds U.S. dollars. But the strange thing about these Fed interventions is that hardly anyone seems alarmed. There’s no sense of rising risk being priced into the stock market. And the mainstream media is barely even mentioning these massive transfers of paper wealth.
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Saturday, October 26, 2019
Virgin Galactic Will Take Justin Bieber to Space—and It’s a Damn Good Investment / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Stephen_McBride
By Justin Spittler : Rumor has it, pop star Justin Bieber and actor Leonardo DiCaprio are taking a trip to outer space...It sounds like a sci-fi movie, but have you heard of Virgin Galactic? Founded by British billionaire Richard Branson, the company has built the world’s first spaceship.
Let me be clear...
It’s not just an idea. It’s not just a concept. It’s not just a glorified airplane.
It’s a real, working SPACESHIP… tested and approved by the US Federal Aviation Administration.
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Saturday, October 26, 2019
Will Central Banks Prevent Recession and Push Gold Down? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Trade wars, geopolitical tensions and slowing economic indicators. Both the ECB and the Fed have recently cut interest rates to stimulate slowing growth, hoping to escape possible recession. Will they succeed? After all, they don’t have the most reliable record when it comes to preventing busts. Let’s get into the central flaw of central banking and what it implies for gold.
Both the ECB and the Fed have just cut interest rates to stimulate slowing growth and to escape possible recession. Will they succeed? The question is, of course, rhetorical. The recovery from the Great Recession has been the slowest postwar recovery, despite the massive monetary (and fiscal) stimulus, as the chart below shows.
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Saturday, October 26, 2019
Silver & Gold to Inform Dr. Copper and so, the Macro / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
They call copper the metal with the Ph.D. in Economics. But these days Doctor Copper is little more than a quack in that regard, taking a cue from the metals whose interplay will be critical to deciding the coming macro for 2020 and the run up to the next US election. Thus, they are the 3 Metallic Amigos, riding together but providing different signals at different times (this being nftrh.com, you will have to put up with the odd shtick from time to time).
As we have noted repeatedly, the Silver/Gold ratio takes it place alongside other indicators (like long-term Treasury yields, yield curve, TIPs ratios, inflation breakevens, etc.) of a would-be inflationary environment. When silver (more cyclical, commodity-like characteristics) rises vs. gold (more counter-cyclical, liquidity haven characteristics) it is a hint toward an inflationary macro.
A daily chart of silver/gold shows a constructive ratio at yesterday’s close and this morning in pre-market silver is +2.77% while gold is +.77%. The implication could well be an end to the current bull flag consolidation at the moving averages and the next upturn in silver/gold, the miners and possibly the inflation/reflation trades that tend to follow.
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Friday, October 25, 2019
Stock Market Trend Forecast October to December 2019 (2/2) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 2 of 2 of my in-depth analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the DJIA stocks index into the end of 2019. However, the whole of this analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work. Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct to Dec 2019
- Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State
- Yield Curve Inversion Current State
- US Presidential Cycle
- ELLIOTT WAVES
- Short-term Trend Analysis
- Long-term Trend Analysis
- MACD
- VIX
- SEASONAL ANALYSIS
- Formulating a Stock Market Forecast
- Dow Stock Market Forecast Conclusion
- AI Stocks Buying Levels
So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Friday, October 25, 2019
The Mystery of China’s Third-Quarter Growth - Resilience or Gloom? / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Despite trade wars and geopolitics, Chinese economic growth shows resilience. So why is there a deep gap between the third-quarter data and gloomy international headlines?
After the release of third-quarter data, The Wall Street Journal headline sounded a warning: “China’s economic growth slowest in decades.” CNN seconded: “China’s economic growth drops to lowest level since 1992.” Reuters extended the timeline: “China’s GDP growth grinds to near 30-year low as tariffs hit production.”
Friday, October 25, 2019
Diving Deep Into The World Of Europe's Best Casinos / Personal_Finance / Gambling
By: Sumeet_Manhas
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Friday, October 25, 2019
The End of College Is Coming / Politics / Student Finances
By: Stephen_McBride
Every spring, millions of American high school kids are faced with this choice.It sounds like a no-brainer. And it used to be a no-brainer... because college used to cost a reasonable amount of money.
As recently as 1980, you could get a four-year bachelor’s degree at a public school for less than $10,000, on average. These days it’ll cost you at least $40,000… or upward of $140,000 for a private school... or well over $250,000 for a top school.
Unless a kid has rich parents or a full ride scholarship, he must borrow a ton of money to pay for the privilege of attending college.
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Friday, October 25, 2019
Gold, Credit And The Coming Financial Collapse / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Hubert_Moolman
Since 2016, the US Monetary Base has declined by about 23.68%. This is the deepest and longest decline since the Federal Reserve was formed. This should not be ignored.
The last time there was a decline close to this magnitude,there was a sharp deflationary recession. That was the one that occurred from 1920 to 1921.
Below, is a long-term chart of the Monetary base that goes back to 1918:
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Thursday, October 24, 2019
Money Printing Fuelled Stocks Bull Market Hurtling Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock markets so far have confounded expectations for a deeper October correction by dutifully rallying for an assault on resistance, with the Dow trading to barely 0.5% of its all time high, all whilst the Trump and the Brexit chaos shows continue in the US and the UK. So how can this be? To once more iterate the general indices are on an exponential upwards curve, where deviations from the highs being buying opportunities for the fundamental reason of exponential money printing by whatever names it may go, QE, government bonds etc.. Governments of the world continue to print money that drives the exponential inflation mega-trend to which stock and other asset prices are leveraged.
Thursday, October 24, 2019
Gold, the Shining Star Among Commodities / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Gold is the most effective commodity investment, yet it is under-invested, the WGC reports. What makes it special and deserving of our focus? And how to translate that focus into an appropriate allocation within one’s portfolio?
Gold is Unique Commodity. Or… Maybe Not?
Gold is often included into commodities. It seems natural, gold is a metal, after all. And just like other raw materials, it is used in the production of manufactured goods. But gold is much more than that. According to the recent report published by World Gold Council, there are six features which differentiate gold from other commodities:
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Thursday, October 24, 2019
2020 Will Bring 40+ IPOs That Could Double Your Money / Companies / IPOs
By: Stephen_McBride
Justin Spittler writes:
Many people think the initial public offering (IPO) market is dead.
If you’ve been reading my essays, you know I specialize in IPOs. And I don’t want to spoil the punchline, but... I love that this rumor has taken hold.
I love that the average guy thinks IPOs are dead. Because it means hunting for big IPO profits is “contrarian.”
And the biggest profits usually flow into the pockets of investors who can think independently of the crowd.
I can tell you with 100% certainty that not only is the IPO market alive and well... 2020 is shaping up to be the “Year of the IPO.”
Thursday, October 24, 2019
Divergence of Gold And Bitcoin – Which Represents A True Safe-Haven? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, Mark Zuckerberg appeared before the US Congress to discuss his new Libra project and to attempt to calm concerns related to his new global alternate currency project. It appears this project is putting global political leaders in a particularly powerful position of either accepting the Libra project as a viable future solution and implementing new laws and regulations in support of it or to shelve the idea while they consider the local and global risks associated with a project that creates a new class of global currency. (Source: https://www.bloomberg.com)
We believe the risks associated with a massive corporate and international backed Crypto/Alternate currency are far too great, at this time, for the US government to attempt to consider with only 12+ months to go before the US Presidential elections. This is almost like opening Pandora’s Box in terms of total global risks and outcomes. It becomes almost impossible for the US government, Federal Reserve or any other global central bank to be able to protect its citizens from the risks associated with any type of technology collapse, fraud, hacking or any other unknown risks associated with such an idea.
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Thursday, October 24, 2019
Stock Market New All-Time Highs By Year End - But, It May Not Be What You Expect / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
This market has been difficult for both the longs and the shorts for months now. While it has been unwilling to break down, it has also been equally unwilling to break out.
What makes me scratch my head even more of late is that the Fed has come to the table with its “not-really-QE-4” of $60 billion a month. For those that remember, QE1 was approximately $100 billion a month on average, QE2 was $75 billion, and QE3 was $85 billion. But, to see the Fed coming forth with this type of liquidity injection when the market is hovering just below its all-time highs is a bit surprising. Yet, the market is still unable to break out.
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Thursday, October 24, 2019
Gold’s Seasonal Outlook for Q4 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
“What is the best predictor of future behavior? Past behavior.” And while this certainly does not always hold, there is a lesson to be learned from this adage for gold investors. Yup, a saying about behavior might be important for the precious metals market. The basic idea is that behavior can be understood as history here. And so, the best predictor of future developments could be past developments. In other words, past developments might hold some indications as to the fluctuations in the market.
In particular, market patterns might repeat over time. It might just as well be the case that investors behave in a similar manner during specific times in the year. One classic example is the period after New Year – it has been argued that the investors are optimistic at the beginning of the year and that markets could rally then. Another one are the summer doldrums – the old saying is “sell in May and go away” - meaning that people tend to tune out during the summer holidays more than at other times throughout the year. New Year and the summer do not move throughout the year. But Thanksgiving does – it is not always on the same day. The same goes for the market. Some influences could be difficult to pinpoint. The one we focus on is the expiration of derivatives. Futures contracts and options do not always expire on the same day in the month. And so to account for them is slightly more complicated. Even more so if you would like to combine classic seasonal patterns with the expiration of derivatives.
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Thursday, October 24, 2019
The Duel Between Johnson and Parliament. Will Gold Win? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Boris Johnson struggles to push the Brexit agreement through the British Parliament. For it can bite back! Who wins this battle? One could hope that gold, but this is not so certain…
Johnson’s Struggle, Explained
On Thursday, the breaking news came out that the EU and the UK reached agreement on Brexit. The agreement scrapped the Irish backstop that had formed the bulk of the opposition to the former proposals. Naive who believed that it would change something! We have to admit that we thought for a while that finally the Brexit saga was coming to an end.
But the British government still has a long way to go! On Saturday, the Parliament voted for a change to the sequencing of the ratification of the deal. It means that they withheld support on Johnson’s Brexit deal until all the necessary legislation is passed. In this way, the lawmakers forced the prime minister to write a letter to the EU requesting a delay until January 31.
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Thursday, October 24, 2019
How GE Screwed Over Its Retirees / Companies / Pensions & Retirement
By: John_Mauldin
Remember “defined benefit” pensions?
That is the kind of plan in which the employer guarantees the worker a set monthly benefit for life. They are increasingly scarce except for small closely held corporations.
The same rules apply for small closely held businesses as for large corporations.
These plans can be great tools for independent professionals and small business owners. But if you have thousands of employees, DB plans are expensive and risky.
Thursday, October 24, 2019
Making Money Trading Oil: A Slippery Investment or Black Gold? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
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