Friday, October 04, 2019
The Russell and Transportation Tell A Completely Different Stock Market Story / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We’ve been writing about the broader US stock market for many months – highlighting the Pennant/Flag formations that have continued to set up since early 2018. Sometimes, the keys to really understanding what is transpiring behind the scenes in the US markets is to pay attention to various market segments and to consider applying some “outside the box” thinking. Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.
Our research team would like to fall back into price analysis using the Russell 2000 and the Transportation Index as “additional measures” that mirror the US major stock market in terms of price, volatility and future price targets. The interesting facet of this type of analysis is that we can study any symbols we want and apply the different techniques, patterns and insight we learn to the total scope of the broader US stock market. Thus, we can attempt to identify how and when certain price actions may become more intense or volatile while comparing how our predictive modeling systems and other tools share unique outcomes.
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Friday, October 04, 2019
Confidence Drives the Economy and Trump’s Trade War Is Killing It / Economics / Protectionism
By: Patrick_Watson
Economic growth isn’t random.
It comes from individual decisions to buy, sell, or do nothing. We all make dozens every day.
Corporate CEOs and CFOs make bigger decisions, like whether thousands of people get hired or a factory gets built.
That means, the economy generally does better when business leaders see growth opportunities, and worse when they don’t.
Right now, the latter is happening. We know why, too: President Trump’s erratic trade policies make long-term planning difficult, to say the least.
Friday, October 04, 2019
ADL Predicts Crude Oil Prices Will Fall Below $40 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
There are times when our research team interprets our advanced predictive modeling systems so well that we call a move in the markets 3 to 10+ months in advance of the move actually happening. It has happened for our team of research so often lately that we are somewhat used to the accolades we receive from our followers and members. Our October 2018 Gold price predictions are still playing out accurately and continue to amaze people – even though we made these predictions over 12 months ago.
Today, we wanted to highlight our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling systems expectations for Crude Oil, but before we get into the details be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter. The research post we made on July 10, 2019 (see below). At that time, we warned that Crude Oil was about to head much lower and that our ADL modeling system was suggesting that Oil prices would rotate between $47 and $64 before breaking much lower in November 2019. Ultimately, Oil prices will fall below $40 ppb following our timeline and could begin a broader downside move before the end of October 2019. Read our full prediction/research report from the link below.
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Friday, October 04, 2019
Investing Money? Why You Need a Reputable Accountant / Personal_Finance / Taxes
By: Sumeet_Manhas
As an investor, you are probably always busy worrying about where to set up your next shop, how much money you should pay your employees, who you can trust as your manager which car you plan on buying or maybe where you plan to go for your next vacation.Important as these worries may be to you, are they really all that you should be thinking about?
Filing taxes is probably one of the most annoying bits of their lives that most people DON’T look forward to, and some equally forget or ignore to do so only to be haunted in their sleep by the debt collector.
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Friday, October 04, 2019
Stumbling Manufacturing and Rising Gold – Now or Later? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
American manufacturers are scoring ever deeper recessionary readings. We haven’t seen this bad an ISM Manufacturing reading in quite a while. Can it take the broader economy with it? And what about gold – when exactly will it get its shine?
ISM Manufacturing Index Drops To Disturbingly Low Level
The September ISM Manufacturing Index registered 47.8 percent, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from the August reading of 49.1 percent. It’s not only below 50 percent, which indicates a contraction, but it’s actually the lowest level since June 2009, when the Great Recession formally ended, as the chart below shows.
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Friday, October 04, 2019
Silver Eyes Fourth Quarter Rebound / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets enter the often favorable fourth quarter trading season with the potential to reinvigorate their major uptrends.
Despite posting impressive gains in the third quarter, gold and (especially) silver finished it on a downbeat note.
On Monday, sellers smashed silver spot prices down 3.6% to test the $17.00/oz. level.
The disappointing finish to the month and the quarter does raise the possibility that momentum selling could continue to drag prices lower in the near term. However, quarter-end profit taking and portfolio shuffling by institutional futures traders could also work in favor of an immediate price bounce.
Thursday, October 03, 2019
Gold Price Forecast to Exceed $10,000/Ounce / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nick_Barisheff
Before making an investment decision, every investor should understand true inflation. But what is true inflation? Currently, inflation is measured using a floating basket of goods in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which continues to understate true inflation.
Two useful tools for determining true inflation figures are John Williams’s Shadow Statistics and the Chapwood Index. John Williams, a renowned economist, provides excellent insights about the severity of misstated inflation rates. Using a fixed basket from 1980 to compare to today’s prices determines that inflation is actually 9.46%, not 1.75% as represented by the CPI. Exhibit A provides a visual interpretation of discrepancies between reported inflation and true inflation.
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Thursday, October 03, 2019
Thomas Cook's Fall from Grace - A Cautionary Tale for the Entire Global Economy / Companies / Company Chart Analysis
By: EWI
Since its very first 11-mile train tour on July 5, 1841, the Thomas Cook travel company has been taking adventure-seekers around the world, from river cruises down the Nile (a.k.a. "Cook's Canal"), railcars up to the mouth of Mount Vesuvius, and spaceships to the surface of the moon! (Between 1950 to 1996, Cook's "Moon Registry" had a 100,000-flight manifest).
But on September 23, 2019, Thomas Cook filed for one of the most dismantling bankruptcies in recent history, shuddering the world's oldest travel firm and leaving hundreds of thousands of travelers high and dry. The stranding prompted the UK's largest-ever peace time repatriation effort, a 10-day long, 60 million-pound rescue effort coined Operation Matterhorn.
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Thursday, October 03, 2019
Dow Jones may have already bottomed But SP500 & Nasdaq have further to go / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Have you been following our research? Were you prepared for this move like we were? Did you profit from this incredibly quick and volatile downside price move in the US markets? What is it going to do to the foreign markets and what next?
Our team of researchers has been all over this setup many months before it happened. In fact, we issued a research article on September 30 suggesting our predictive modeling system was warning of a big price rotation in the NQ and ES. On September 21, we authored another research article suggesting a “massive price reversion may be days or weeks away”. On September 7th, we authored yet another article suggesting “US STOCK MARKET HASN’T CLEARED THE STORM YET”
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Thursday, October 03, 2019
A Simple, But Elegant Resolution In The Precious Metals Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
Originally published on Sat Sep 28 for our ElliottWaveTrader members: With the various charts we track unable to complete 5 waves up off the low struck two weeks, it would seem that we can count all of those charts as having just completed a corrective rally top, with more pullback likely to be seen. In fact, this is primarily why I have been stressing that I was treating the last rally as a corrective one until otherwise proven by the market.
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Thursday, October 03, 2019
When Will the Turnaround in Gold Likely Come? Implications for Silver? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
In yesterday’s analysis, we emphasized that even though a big decline in gold is already underway, it’s likely that it won’t be a straight move down and there will be periodic corrections. Moreover, we provided price targets from which the bounce could start. Based on the circumstances, it might even be a tradable move. In today’s analysis, we’re going to show you that there are signals suggesting that the turnaround might start relatively soon – during this month.
But first, let’s take a look at the most recent price changes.
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Thursday, October 03, 2019
Economics Is Like Quantum Physics / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
I often say a writer is nothing without readers. I am blessed to have some of the world’s greatest. Your feedback never fails to inspire and enlighten me.
My last week’s That Time Keynes Had a Point letter brought many more comments than usual. Apparently Keynes is still provocative 73 years after his death, no matter what you say about him.
But my real point was about the twisted economic thought that is having dangerous effects on us all. And we can’t blame it just on Keynes.
Today I want to share some of the feedback I received, add a few thoughts, and then show you some real-world consequences that are only getting worse. But first, let me wax philosophic for a minute.
Thursday, October 03, 2019
Deflation or Inflation: Gold Doesn't Care / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, discuss recession, central bank panic and an outrageous gold price.
In our view, gold investors should settle back with some popcorn and enjoy the coming fireworks, which will include the best gold bull market ever, with all the volatility that implies. We see new all-time highs just around the corner. The challenge is to take a position and stay the course. Central banks are about to pay for decades of bad policy and gold will reap the dividends.
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Wednesday, October 02, 2019
Walmart Is Quietly Turning Healthcare on Its Head / Companies / Healthcare Sector
By: Stephen_McBride
Was Obamacare good for the average American family? Before you answer, look at this chart...
It shows the stock performance of UnitedHealth (UNH), America’s biggest health insurance company, since 2010:
Wednesday, October 02, 2019
Last Train Out for Gold, Silver and Platinum Bulls? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
The people who are prepared are going to reap rewards such as they have never dreamed. We're going to have the biggest transfer of wealth in history – from the fools – to those who are prepared. – Bob Moriarty
The run up of the last few months to $1,565 gold and $19 silver has stalled out into a relatively high-level correction, giving back less than might be expected after such a spirited rise.
Wednesday, October 02, 2019
Cycles Supporting Market Consolidations / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: readtheticker
Cycles show how regular time and price periods work within price action, they help thread the needle as to where price may move to next. Cycles with Wyckoff logic help expose how fundamentals are working through price action to motivate price to a new level. Here are some examples of cycles with other readtheticker indicators. Chart 1: If the SP500 trends higher on QE4 and gold holds up, then gold stocks should do well, and most likely out perform gold itself.
Wednesday, October 02, 2019
Stock Market Downside Price Rotation Dominates After Manufacturing Data / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team has been all over this longer-term Pennant/Flag setup and the potential for the breakdown in the US/Global markets. The US manufacturing data released today confirmed what we believed would be the outcome of the extended trade issues between the US and China – a moderate slowdown in US manufacturing. Couple that with a US Fed that is attempting to navigate very difficult economic developments, consumers headed into the Christmas season unsure of what lies ahead, the US political environment (almost complete chaos) and uncertainties with foreign markets and we have a perfect setup for “investor malaise”.
This is something we last saw after 9/11 and even earlier in 1990 when the US invaded Kuwait. With each of these events, consumers and investors entered a phase of moderate indifference/malaise in terms of attention put towards global economics and investing as well as a general unwillingness to actively engage in anything related to investing and finance related. It appeared that consumers and investors were just busy taking care of their lives, families, jobs and watching the “news cycle” as it seemed every evening something new hit the news-cycles to distract from the markets.
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Wednesday, October 02, 2019
Economics of Geopolitic - Why US Senate Targeted Philippines and Other Countries / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
The new Senate bill targeting the Philippines and some other countries – Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia - is fueled by controversial political and economic agendas that have caused turmoil since the 1980s.
For some time, US Senators Richard Durbin (Dem, Illinois) and Patrick Leahy (Dem, Vermont) had pushed for an amendment in the 2020 state and foreign operations appropriations bill by the US Senate appropriations committee. Essentially, the amendment would deny entry of Philippine government officials involved in the detention of Philippine opposition Senator Leila de Lima.
Last week, the US Senate panel approved the amendment. Durbin considers De Lima’s detention a “politically motivated imprisonment.” According to Philippine government, De Lima was arrested and detained in 2017 for allegedly asking money from drug convicts to fund her senatorial campaign and for allowing the drug trade to continue in the national penitentiary while she was the justice secretary. Despite evidence, she claims the cases against her are “politically motivated.”
Wednesday, October 02, 2019
A Guide to FX Trading By Artur Hochberg / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Travis_Bard
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Tuesday, October 01, 2019
Silver Q4 Seasonal Outlook / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Mike_McAra
What has been will be again,
what has been done will be done again;
there is nothing new under the sun.
- Ecclesiastes 1:9
History repeats itself. Not always, and not 100%, but often enough and to an extent that’s significant enough to make these repetitions potentially profitable. In order to take advantage of this tendency, we created a tool called True Seasonals (and we are now providing it free of charge). If you heard about seasonality, you already know what to expect, but you may not know what you have been missing. Many things take place at the same time each year (for instance people making a lot of jokes on April Fools’ Day), but quite a few of them take place only more or less regularly.
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