Tuesday, January 31, 2023
Here's a Strong Indication That the Stocks Bear Market Has Legs / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: EWI
This is what investors look for at or near a stock market low
Elliott Wave International's analysts have been observing financial markets for decades. They monitor dozens of stock market indicators, in addition to Elliott wave patterns.
No single indicator can tell the whole story of what's going on with the market, but sometimes, a single observation can carry a lot of weight.
One current observation is that many investors are still looking for reasons to be bullish, even though stocks have been in a downtrend for more than a year. In other words, they think the bear market is over.
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Tuesday, January 31, 2023
6 Trends to Watch in the CBD Market / Commodities / Cannabis
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
The CBD market is growing rapidly, making it challenging to stay on top of the latest trends. With consumer demand on the rise and more products than ever hitting shelves, it's essential to know what changes and innovations are happening in this exciting industry. In this post, we'll dive into key trends that entrepreneurs, retailers, and customers need to be aware of when navigating the world of CBD. From product diversification to new global regulations, these trends will provide insight into an evolving landscape, allowing you to capitalize on opportunities and make informed decisions about your journey into cannabinoids.
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Monday, January 30, 2023
Intel INTC Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / INTEL
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Intel - $30.3 EGF -44%, EGF12M -34%, PE 10.7
If one just looked at the PE then Intel would look cheap, but it's EGF's are horrific which is a function of placing huge bets on new Fab's that will take several years to be built and only then will we know if the bets pay off or not. In terms of Intel's battle against AMD then the spread between the two has narrowed a little but AMD still produces the better chips by some margin that only TSMC can correct for Intel. Intel remains a sleeping giant pending earnings growth, until then the best one can hope for is that it holds the current range in attempts to build a base to recover back above $40. The bottom line is that EGF of -44% and -34% are strongly pointing to another bad earnings report on the upside everyone is now conditioned to expect bad earnings from Intel so the bad news is already baked in which means it would only take a glimmer of hope to fuel a rally in this sleeping tech giant.
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Monday, January 30, 2023
Lam Researtch LRCX Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
LRCX - $491, EGF 16%, EGF12M -13%, PE 13.9
I have to admit to having a soft spot for Lam Research which is why I am 131% invested even after trimming, trades on just X13.9, with a positive EGF of 16%, whilst earnings will contract during 2023 hence 12M EGF of -13%. However forward EGF is more guesstimate so less important than actual EGF which is strongly bullish for the stock price that has soared off it's $300 low, well done to all those who bought any of LRCX near it's low because it's not going to see those levels again anytime soon at best could dip to just below $400 below which lies heavy support, as a prelude to an eventual breakout higher to above $500 that would propel the stock towards it's all time high of $730. The bottom line is that Lam is heading for an earnings beat.
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Monday, January 30, 2023
IBM Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Corporate Earnings
By: Nadeem_Walayat
IBM - $142 EGF 22%, EGF12M 6%, PE 16
IBM the sleeping giant was one of the best performing stocks of 2022 and with very strong EGF's has the potential to blast off out of it's multi-year trading range towards $200 a share during 2023! A fair PE of 16 coupled with high EGF's suggest IBM really could surprise all who had written it off as a dead dividend stock, not with EGF scores of +22% and +6%! So whilst the stock price says SELL the dinosaur trading at the top of it's trading range, the fundamentals of the company say higher prices, especially if one understands what's going on under the hood in terms of Quantum Computing, AI and a library of tens of thousands of patents then the picture of IBM of the past that most hold in their mind is not the same as the IBM of today. The bottom line is that IBM is primed for a positive earnings surprise!
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Monday, January 30, 2023
ASML Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Corporate Earnings
By: Nadeem_Walayat
ASML - $676, EGF 7%, EGF12M 6%%, PE 40
They aren't many stocks that can get away with trading on a PE of 40 but ASMAL can, why because they are a literal monopoly that no one else can replicate, produce the EUV machines that the likes of TSMC and Intel use to make the chips. First comes industry demand for the machines that make the chips then retail demand for the chips. The EGF's speak volume for why this stock trades at a hefty premium. ASML:is on a run towards new all time highs during 2023. The bottom line is that ASML will deliver an earnings BEAT.
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Monday, January 30, 2023
Tesla TSLA Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Tesla
By: Nadeem_Walayat
TESLA - $143, EGF 16%, EGF12M 362%, PE 39
Tesla's PE ratio collapsed along with it's stock price to a low of $100 a share! And as expected has rebounded strongly to now well above $130 and should continue trending higher to north of $160, to eventually attempt to break back above $200 this year, but the trend will be volatile i.e. expect huge gap moves. In terms of earnings the EGF's remain strongly positive so Tesla regardless of MSM noise should continue to post positive earnings growth signs for which can be seen in the reopening of China which thus feeds the stock prices trend higher. The valuations has reset to X39 and should continue to moderate during 2023 which suggests to expect earnings to continue to grow all year. After some trimming I am currently 130% invested and I aim to continue to lighten towards being about 115% invested in this volatile AI tech giant.
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Monday, January 30, 2023
Microsoft MSFT Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Microsoft
By: Nadeem_Walayat
MSFT - $242.6, EGF 0%, EGF12M 10%, PE 26.1, Fair Value 250
GPT Microsoft trading on 26X earnings not cheap when compared to it's Quantum AI tech stock brethren. However it is the cheapest it's been at for many a year having traded down to equal it's pandemic low valuation which also illustrates why many so called analysts waiting for the PRICE to revisit pandemic levels don't have a clue what they are doing. In terms of downside risk Microsoft is shouting that it is reluctant to trade down to $200, so in terms of buying the $228 to $208 range is the best one can expect to accumulate in. The EGF's say it all, 0%, and +10% whilst most are negative, thus is sowing the seeds for a resumption of it's bull market so I expect a positive response to earnings likely to increasing to boost their coffers by capitalising upon GPT3-4-5, that they hope can finally put a dent into the Google search money making machine, though I seriously doubt they will! I am currently 37% invested and will continue to seek opps to increase exposure to this primary AI tech stock.
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Monday, January 30, 2023
Stock Market Big Week Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 charge higher continued, and high beta plays didn‘t disappoint. Energy, financials, Russell 2000, emerging markets – all on fire. After Thursday‘s climb of bear market rally wall of worry (we‘re rather to meet recession and not soft landing – the contraction will be mild till Q3 2023), we‘re in for a daily deceleration today as I don‘t think yesterday‘s complacency would last till the closing bell.
The weakness will likely show up in bonds first, underpinning the dollar – and the rest would be history. All on a daily basis – you can look forward for extensive pre-FOMC analysis next week!
Monday, January 30, 2023
Riding the Stock Market FOMO Rally in Tech Stocks - Investing 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock Market FOMO rally us underway, were you already fully invested months ago or have you been watching too much of CNBC cartoon network and are thus sat on the sidelines or worse FOMO-ing in right now, here's how I am riding the FOMO rally off the October 2022 low.
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Monday, January 30, 2023
How to save money as a startup in 2023 / Personal_Finance / Money Saving
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Running a startup can be a costly endeavour, especially in the early stages when resources are limited. The strain may be even harder with the current economic climate, with many predicting a global recession in 2023.
However, there are ways to save money and stretch your budget further. This article aims to outline some methods of how startups can save money in 2023.
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Friday, January 27, 2023
Bitcoin FTX Crime Scene Price CAPITULATION! / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This article is part 2 of 3 of as excerpted form my extensive analysis Stocks Analysis Bonanza - GOOG, QCOM, ASML, TCHEY, BABA, BIDU, TSLA, WDC, RBLX, MGNI, COIN, BITCOIN CAPITULATION! that was was first made available to patrons who support my work.
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Friday, January 27, 2023
Natural Gas: Here's What Happened After a "Double Top" / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: EWI
A key technical pattern warns of a reversal
It probably won't be a surprise to you that Elliott Wave International is an advocate of technical analysis. After all, the Elliott wave method is a form of technical analysis.
You probably know that the term "technical analysis" refers to analyzing the behavior of financial markets themselves -- generally by studying charts -- as opposed to "fundamental" analysis, which is based on news and events outside of financial markets.
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Friday, January 27, 2023
Anti-Gold Bias: The Big Secret Wall Street DOESN'T Want You to Know / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: MoneyMetals
By Stefan Gleason,
Last year was one of the worst on record for a conventional stock and bond portfolio. The major stock and bond market indexes both fell by double digits.
Investors who were diversified into physical precious metals fared much better. While it wasn't a banner year for gold and silver markets, they eked out slight gains – which translated into a massive outperformance versus conventional financial assets.
Unfortunately, conventional financial advice continues to keep most investors 100% allocated to financial assets with zero diversification into hard assets.
Friday, January 27, 2023
Should I Borrow from Friends and Family to Start a Business? / Companies / SME
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Finding ways to fund your fledgling business is always difficult. Although there are many channels that you can go through, such as small business loans, it can be advantageous to approach friends and family for initial startup money. It worked for Jeff Bezos, who received $300,000 from his parents as an initial investment in Amazon.
However, borrowing informally from friends and family comes with several complications that should be considered before you make that all important pitch. Below is a list of the pros and cons of borrowing from friends and family when starting a business.
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Wednesday, January 25, 2023
STEALTH INFLATION / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Gold and especially Silver are coming alive, the sleepers finally waking up to the INFLATION that they have been waiting for a decade to materialise. Where most are focused on the smoke and mirrors annual rate of CPLIE that the clueless mainstream media will latch onto to indicate that the Fed is winning and inflation is being defeated as the annual rate of CPI falls as the economy weakness..
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Wednesday, January 25, 2023
Gold’s Battle to Break the 2011 High / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Between 2020 and now, quite a lot happened, quite a lot of money was printed, and we saw a war breaking out in Europe. Yet gold failed to rally to new highs.Gold Had Chances
In fact, it’s trading very close to its 2011 high, which tells you something about the strength of this market. It’s almost absent.
Truth be told, what we see in gold is quite in tune with what we saw after the 2011 top, and in particular, shortly after the 2012 top. We can also spot similarities between now and 2008. The long-term gold price chart below provides details.
Actually, since gold is now practically just where it was a week ago, my Monday’s description of the below gold chart remains up-to-date:
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Wednesday, January 25, 2023
Alternative Ways To Finance Your Startup in 2023 / Companies / Debt & Loans
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Deciding how to finance your startup in 2023 can be a challenging hurdle to overcome. In the US, 58% of startups have less than $25,000 at their disposal during the beginning phase.
Often traditional methods of acquiring funds via bank loans are complicated and competitive. Processes can be lengthy and are not always guaranteed as banks shy from new ventures and the element of risk involved.
Fortunately, there are lots of options out there. In the guide below we have shed light on some alternative ways you could look to finance your startup this year.
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Tuesday, January 24, 2023
Stock Market on the Launch Pad for Post CPI To the Moon Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Santa's Stock Market sledge is on the launch pad, t-minus 2 hours to go until release of November CPI data at 1.30pm UK time. Octobers release was 7.7%, consensus for November is for 7.3%, and 6,1% for Core CPLIE. A quick review of the monthly data suggests to expect CPI of 7.4%, so whilst not a beat would be a relief that CPLIE is at it's lowest since November last year, so would be taken as a cue for SANTA to deliver the last leg of the rally off the October low that has already achieved my base case target of 4100 thus should set the scene for the over shoot phase to at least 4160, with ample time to propel stocks for an assault on S&P 4200, break of which we would send stocks into the FOMO phase that would target a break of the August high of 4316 which has basically been my view for over month.
Therefore my expectations are for Santa to take the rally a notch higher north of 4100, for an over shoot to about 4160, beyond which is the 4200 barrier above which FOMO froth, that could be triggered by CPI of 7.2% or lower, though that is not what the actual data suggests toe expect, i.e. 7.3% or 7.4% looks more probable. Still it is good to remember that the S&P has already had a 17.7% bull run off it's MId October low of 3481 to it's recent high of 4100, so to achieve 4160 and above would be the icing on the cake. Swing projections that have proven reliable concur with this outlook by projecting to 4340 into the end of the year.
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Tuesday, January 24, 2023
The Best Ways to Finance Your Startup? / Companies / SME
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
In the world of business and entrepreneurship, the beginning of the new year often brings fresh ideas and inspiration. This is none more true than in the startup industry. You may be thinking of finally developing that billion-dollar idea you’ve kept in your head for the past years. Before you begin, however, you need to develop a smart approach to securing financing for your new venture.A survey by CB Insights has shown that 29% of new start ups fail because of lack of funds or lack of ability to raise new capital. That’s why we are happy to present a guide to financing a new-start up.
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