Sunday, February 19, 2023

HOW to INVEST - THE POWER OF TRIMMING! / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest

By: Nadeem_Walayat

As a reminder when I see an opportunity to buy target stocks at deep discounts then I don't tend to flinch and buy the panics, the falling knives, even if takes me to well beyond my target exposure as has been the case for many stocks during the bear market of 2022 because of what will likely follow, a rally to TRIM.

The objectives is to bank profits and free up cash for future buys, as my target is to be approx 15% in cash (current 7.2%), as with many things I take trimming for granted and assume everyone does the same to some degree i.e. the more target stocks fall the more I buy with a view to engage in trimming during a subsequently rally. If you don't trim then it is something you need to adopt as part of your investment strategy as over time it does add up! Substantially for two reasons -

Saturday, February 18, 2023

S&P Stock Market FOMO Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Whilst the Dow has raged higher off its October low unfortunately our portfolios are far more in tune with the S&P which has under performed the Dow to significant degree. However the good news is that the S&P tends to outperform the Dow during bull markets so will catchup to and pass the Dow during 2023.

The S&P soared through 3900 running the stops sucking the S&P higher to 3953 as I flagged it would well ahead of the break higher in the comments section of the last posted article. So do check the comments section as I continue to provide patrons with my short-term view on a near daily basis as well as doing my utmost to answer patron queries. Also note, the Patreon app does not always show all of the charts so it is best to access the Patreon via a browser either from your phone, tablet or desktop PC rather than the from the ap.

Saturday, February 18, 2023

Stock Market US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Apparently everyone assumes that a recession during 2023 is a done deal! However an analysis of recessions in terms of the US presidential election cycle suggests that a recession during 2023 is a very low probability event and that the actual recession may not materialise until 2024.

Saturday, February 18, 2023

Gold Price REALly Declines and That’s Just the Start / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: P_Radomski_CFA

In all likelihood – yes. Then it’s likely to slide more – much more. With this pace (chart courtesy of GoldPriceForecast.com), gold could move below $1,800 in no time.

Saturday, February 18, 2023

The Inflation Bonfire Continues but More States Are Fighting Back / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

As investors digest the latest readings on inflation, employment, and consumer spending, precious metals markets are wavering on fears of further rate hikes.

Inflation continues to run well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

On Tuesday, the Labor Department released the latest Consumer Price Index figures. The CPI rose a higher than expected 0.5% in January. That translates into an annual gain of 6.4%.

Saturday, February 18, 2023

How This Pattern from the Prior US Housing Market Bust is Repeating / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: EWI

Here's when homes will likely sell for once-in-a-lifetime bargains

Just like the gold "in them thar hills" motivated people from all walks of life to become miners way back when, real estate booms have motivated people from far and wide to become agents.

In both cases, easy riches seemed to be there for the taking.

But easy riches can be hard to get sometimes, as this New York Times headline indicates:

Tuesday, February 14, 2023

Stock Market Sowing the Seeds for the Most Unexpected Bull Run in History / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock Market Sowing the Seeds for the Most Unexpected Bull Run in History

The Santa rally that runs for 7 trading days into the start of each new year expired on the 4th of January and believe it or not technically we actually got a Santa rally, the 7th straight Santa rally in a row.

Tuesday, February 14, 2023

Stock Market PUMP ahead of US CPI LIE Inflation Data Release DUMP / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

US CPI Data released for October, November, December and January show the CPLIE script of usually a fake out drop ahead or on release followed by strong rally on relief that whatever the data is, it was not quite as bad as it could have been and thus triggers a FOMO rally fed by bears shorting during the preceding decline rushing to cover their shorts, and so are we in for a similar event Tuesday? or is this time going to be more like December, the only time when there was a deviation from the script as it was looking rather obvious by then and hence the market did the opposite, what is obvious right now? Probably a FOIMO rally, so on face value suggests to expect the opposite which is what I have been positioning towards these past weeks.

Wednesday, February 08, 2023

S&P500, Gold, Silver and Crypto's Trend Forecasts 2023 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

In terms of my stock market trend forecast the Dow by now would be trading at approx 32,500 vs actual last close of 33,203 for a +0.9% deviation, imagine if someone told you where the Dow will be in 3 months time and by that time the Dow is within 1% of the forecast price, so the forecast is proving to be an accurate road map against which to measure relative strength or weakness.

Wednesday, February 08, 2023

Clown Cramer META is FINISHED at $100 on CNBC Cartoon Network at Mother of Tech Stocks Buying Opps! / Stock-Markets / Mainstream Media

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Wonder why you did not buy META when the stock was trading down to UNDER $100! It is because it is not easy to buy stocks when they are dirt cheap unless one has a plan, already has a list of target stocks to buy and BUY THEM WHEN CHEAP! BUY THEM WHEN BLOOD IS POURING OUT OF ONES EYES at the draw downs they are generating! BUY THEM when MSM are SAYIING they are now DEAD stocks! As clown Cramer was saying during October, DO NOT BUY TECH STOCKS this clown was spouting as I and hopefully many patrons were catching the many falling knives during Octobers bloodbath, Clown Cramer on the CNBC Cartoon network was stating that the tech stocks were finished, META was finished at $100 per share! When it WAS the mother of all buying opps! CNBC IS the CARTOON NETWORK!

Wednesday, February 08, 2023

Today’s Best Commodity Market Trading Setups / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: EWI

Hi,

You're invited to a free commodity-trading webinar!

Join Elliott Wave International's Chief Commodity Analyst, Jim Martens, this Thursday, Feb. 9 at 1 p.m. Eastern time for a special, live webinar: Today's Best Commodity Setups.

Tuesday, February 07, 2023

Crypto's, with Most Potential Upside / Currencies / cryptocurrency

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Firstly, one does not invest in coruptos, one gambles on coruptos that one day a greater fool will come along to pay more than what one paid because as far as I can tell crypto's do not have any intrinsic value. Still the one thing that could lift some is limited supply and low inflation rates, especially those that tend to undergo halving's in miner rewards such as Bitcoin, though most coruptos (99%) are SCAM COINS! As many have found out during the corrupt0 blood bath of 2022 when several so called pegged to the US dollar stable coins disappeared in a puff of smoke with the rest teetering on the brink, so a case of having ones eyes wide open. Again Crypto's are SCAM CENTRAL! Especially during the bull mania phase as the scam artist celebs all try to cash in at the expense of their followers, the likes of the Kim Kardashian who settled out of the court with the SEC for pumping EthereumMax scam coin, and mega youtubers such as Logan Paul with his scam Zoo token game that disappeared in a puff of smoke taking millions of dollars of his fans money with it, though the scammers ended up stabbing each other in the back to such an extent that most of the scammers also lost money, rug pull on the rug pullers as the Dev did a runner with $6 million leaving Logan Paul and his inner circle down collectively about $1 million. Anyway crypto's are a case of having ones EYES WIDE OPEN, if ones eyelids are droopy then steer clear!

Tuesday, February 07, 2023

Gold Price Trend Forecast 2023 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

And similar trend for the Gold price, also attempting to break out higher off the October - November base that is likely to Gold target a trend to between $2000 and $2100 during 2023 vs the last close of $1804.

Tuesday, February 07, 2023

Could Silver Price Outperform Gold Again? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: Richard_Mills

Gold sold off following the US Federal Reserve’s Feb. 1 decision to raise interest rates another 25 basis points. The federal funds rate now sits at between 4.50 and 4.75%.

Spot gold at first gained about $20 to $1,956, within $80 of the all-time high of $2,034, reached in August, 2020. The dollar fell Wednesday along with bond yields.

The market’s initial take was that the Fed is nearly finished raising rates. A senior investment strategist from Allianz Investment Management told CNBC that the messaging leaned “slightly dovish”, with the lack of clarity signaling that the Fed is nearing the end of its rate tightening cycle.  

After hikes end, Charlie Ripley said the central bank will likely “sit tight while the economic data catches up to the policy.”

“The Fed is essentially speaking out of both sides of the mouth as they signaled further increases are appropriate, but also acknowledged they will consider the cumulative amount of tightening in future policy decisions,” he said.

Tuesday, February 07, 2023

Silver ‘Sediment’ – Encore For Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: Kelsey_Williams

SILVER SEDIMENT

 “Sediment is solid material that is moved and deposited in a new location. Sediment can consist of rocks and minerals…” and “matter that settles to the bottom…”

The silver price closed on Friday at $22.30 oz., down $1.15 from its closing price the day before.

What is worse, though, is that it follows a drop of $.50 oz. on Thursday. And, on both Thursday and Friday, the silver price collapsed early in the day,  found the bottom level and stayed there.

From its intraday peak on Thursday morning in New York to the closing price Friday, silver declined $2.30 oz., or more than nine percent.

Tuesday, February 07, 2023

SILVER CRACKUP BOOM! Price Trend Forecast 2023 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My last look at the prospects for SIlver of early May 2022 warned to expect the inflationary crack up boom to eventually make it's way to the precious metals complex - The CRACK UP BOOM! Implications for Stocks, Housing. and Commodities, Silver Potential

Silver is at the opportune level of $22 for long-term accumulation that first targets the top of the range at $28 and then on a breakout higher to ultimately target the previous all time high of $50.

Monday, February 06, 2023

QUALCOM QCOM Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Tech Stocks

By: Nadeem_Walayat

QUALCOM - $131, EGF -13%, EGF12M -12%. PE 10.5

And last but not least is Qualcom - Qualcom has a finger in so many pies, will power META's Quest 3 headsets and beyond and for all that it trades on multiple of just 10.5, bouncing off a low of $107. EGF's are negative so I don't expect positive earnings, though in the plus side pays a 2.5% dividend. Qualcom is comparable to AMD though at near half the valuation. The stock just cleared resistance which means it could be propelled higher to $150, a rally that I would embrace to trim on. I am 112% invested and don't fret about it's long-term prospects, it will come good in the long-run regardless of any gyrations over the coming months, a good stock to accumulate on the dips.

Monday, February 06, 2023

AMAZON AMZN Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Amazon

By: Nadeem_Walayat

AMAZON - $97.5, EGF -61%, EGF12M -65%, PE 51

Another FAANG stock that retail investors obsess over. The problem with Amazon is that it has never been cheap! That has always been at risk of a valuation reset hence it's recent dissent into the pit of investing hell for all those who failed to read the writing only recently bottoming out at $81. If you look at the charts then you will see that Amazon is to date the only one that has become MORE EXPENSIVE as the stock price has fallen! This is a function of PRINTING SHARES coupled with Amazon being Bezos' personal piggy bank to extract funds from for his boyz toyz. The stock price has bounced to resistance so I don't see much upside. Amazon is definitely not one stock to get carried away with accumulating, I am not seeing a way for this stock to get anywhere near it's all time highs for many years!

Monday, February 06, 2023

Apple APPL Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Apple

By: Nadeem_Walayat

APPLE - 141 EGF 5%, ,EGF12M 6%. PE 23.1

The Apple stock is weak, targeting the bottom of it's current range at $120, which if breached would then target around $106. However as the graph illustrates that whilst Apple is not cheap at X23.1, the fact that Apple is engaged in huge buy backs as illustrated by Share dilution at 80% shows that the stock gets cheaper over time even if the stock price goes nowhere, and hence acts as support under the stock price. Apple has positive EGF's courtesy of the buy backs so the stock price whilst weak is unlikely to experience a waterfall moment, instead most probable is that the stock price will continue to trade within a range for some time. I am currently 25% invested and will continue to accumulate Apple on fresh lows, i.e. sub $120, and maybe some light buying sub $128. The bottom line is that if there is one stock that could trade at NEW bear market lows then that stock is Apple.

Saturday, February 04, 2023

GOOGLE Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Google

By: Nadeem_Walayat

GOOGLE - $101, EGF -10%, EGF12M -4%. PE 20.

Google declares WAR on Microsoft GPT as founders Larry and Sergey return to lead more than 20 AI projects some of which you will have heard of, many that will be revealed over the coming months. The problem with Google is that the current CEO is a bit of a *****, a manager rather than a visionary, not aggressive enough, not when one looks at Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg, hence the founders have come back to get Google back on track to turn it into the ruthless Sky net that we all love, to crush the competition so as to ensure that Google remains the primary AI company on the planet. The bottom line is that Google already has everything to out compete GPT and anything else Microsoft is cooking in attempts to out search Google Search.