Thursday, October 25, 2018

Stock Market Sky is Falling / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Gary_Savage

For nine years now every time we have an intermediate degree correction the perma bears crawl out of the woodwork and start screaming the sky is falling. If you had listened to these people you would have missed one of the greatest bull markets in history.

We had one of the most destructive bear markets in history in 2008/09. It stands to reason it should generate one of the strongest bull markets. As I’ve noted many times in the past, markets act like a pendulum. The further it swings in one direction the harder the reaction in the opposite direction.

Thursday, October 25, 2018

Intermediate Term Outlook Bullish on CAT Despite Current Correction / Companies / Company Chart Analysis

By: Mike_Paulenoff

About 11 months ago, I told our members to watch for a continued rally in Caterpillar Inc. (CAT). The stock had exploded to the upside after breaking above 6-7 year resistance at 112-117.

As it resided at just above 136, I wrote: "CAT still looks like it has unfinished biz on the upside into the 145-146 area next."

I noted that while CAT certainly was overbought, "my work considers momentum to be in a 'healthy overbought' condition, rather than a divergent overbought condition. Usually a healthy overbought condition suggests that higher-highs will be forthcoming prior to the onset of a significant correction."

Thursday, October 25, 2018

UK Average Mortgage Fee Highest in Over Five Years / Housing-Market / Mortgages

By: MoneyFacts

Remortgage activity is currently high as borrowers seek to get the best deal after the base rate rise. As a result, many providers are trying to look attractive as possible. However, although many lenders are reducing rates to appeal to remortgagors, this trend is not being seen for arrangement fees. In fact, the latest research from Moneyfacts.co.uk shows that average mortgage fees* are on the rise, increasing by £15 since August to stand at £1,005 this month – the highest average recorded in more than five years.

Thursday, October 25, 2018

Predictive Price Modeling Shows New Price Highs Are Imminent / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our proprietary adaptive learning tools, specifically our adaptive predictive price modeling tool, is clearly illustrating higher price rotation over the next few weeks with a strong potential that the US equities markets will break to be all-time highs near Dec 2018 or early 2019.

Our research team has spent more than a decade studying the markets and developing specialized tools to assist us in understanding current and future price activities.  This one tool, the Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) Price Modeling system is one of the more dynamic tools we have ever created.  We can ask it what it believes is the highest probability future outcome many weeks, months or years in advance.  Today, we are sharing with you what we believe will be a strong upside price rotation to close out 2018 and lead into 2019.

Wednesday, October 24, 2018

Sentiment Is The Most Important Factor To Focus On in Gold Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

I have now been a contributor at Seeking Alpha for seven years, during which time I have written for approximately six years, as I took a one-year hiatus. And, during that time, I have had the honor of penning almost 400 articles.

During the six years I have been actively writing on Seeking Alpha, 30,000 of you have trusted me enough to begin following my work, as I just hit the 30,000-follower mark. For that I am very grateful, honored and humbled. So, I wanted to first thank you all.

Wednesday, October 24, 2018

Trading Online: How to Find the Best Broker / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade

By: Boris_Dzhingarov

Online trading is a burgeoning global industry. The comfort, convenience, and cost effectiveness of financial trading brokerages has put paid to the institutional systems that governed the industry. Prior to the advent of user-friendly online brokers, traders, investors, and speculators were limited to institutional brokers in their ivory towers.

The age-old model favored the broker and the range of financial instruments that he or she was peddling to traders. In the days of old, traders would call their brokers, requesting them to invest in stocks, commodities, indices, forex, or bonds accordingly. Alternatively, brokers would simply recommend ‘company’ funds which benefited the brokerage enterprise and the broker who was paid a hefty commission.

Tuesday, October 23, 2018

Skilled Traders Can Find Profits In Small Caps / Companies / Investing 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The recent downside price rotation in the US Equities markets has been a blessing for skilled traders.  The opportunities for profits are setting up all over the markets – you just have to look for them and understand price theory.

The Small Cap ETF, TNA, is setting up a nearly perfect example of a quick in and out trade for a potential profit of 8% to 15% or more.  We understand the fear that many traders may have in the markets right now and we understand the reason why many experienced traders decide to sit on the sidelines while these types of moves play out.  Yet, we believe the opportunities that exist while these volatile market moves are playing out are some of the best setups for experienced and skilled traders.

Sunday, October 21, 2018

SPX/Gold, 30yr Yields & Yield Curve – Amigos 1, 2 & 3 Updated / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

We began the Amigos theme last year in order to be guided by the goofy riders during the ending stages of a cyclical, risk-on phase that was not going to end until the proper macro signals come about, no matter how many times the bears declared victory along the way. The fact that grown adults see conspiracies around every corner (okay, I see them around every third corner myself, but work with me here) makes such macro signaling very necessary in order to keep bias at bay.

To review…

• Amigo #1 is the SPX/Gold Ratio (more generally, stocks vs. gold) and a counter cyclical and risk ‘off’ environment simply will not engage until stocks top out vs. gold, if even for a cyclical down phase within the up phase.
• Amigo #2 is the 30yr Treasury Yield and it’s 100 month EMA ‘limiter’, which has supported the funding mechanism (unrestrained credit creation) for the leveraged economy for decades. If the limiter holds yet again, while there could be some deflationary problems the system will persist. If it breaks for the first time in decades well, we are not in Kansas anymore and the door would open up to an inflationary Crack Up Boom (von Mises style).
• Amigo #3 is the Yield Curve, which is in the late stages of flattening. When it turns up it will either be under pains of deflationary or inflationary pressure. Note the word “pains” because there would be pain, either way; but in different financial and economic areas.

Sunday, October 21, 2018

Gold Stocks Sentiment Shifting / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have been largely ignored and neglected for years.  Speculators and investors wanted little to do with them for various reasons.  But that apathetic sentiment is finally starting to shift thanks to last week’s stock-market plunge.  Capital is starting to return to this battered sector as traders begin to realize how radically undervalued it is.  Sentiment mean reversions can catapult gold stocks far higher.

Sentiment is defined as “a thought, view, or attitude, especially one based mainly on emotion instead of reason”.  We humans are inherently-emotional creatures riddled with sentiment on almost everything.  That’s especially true in our perceptions of the financial markets, which heavily influence if not dominate our trading decisions.  We buy and sell stocks when it feels good, when markets appear to validate our outlooks.

Sunday, October 21, 2018

Why Is the Weakness In GBP/USD Likely? / Currencies / British Pound

By: Nadia_Simmons

In recent days, the British pound declined quite sharply against the greenback, which caused several negative developments. Will currency bears be strong enough to trigger further deterioration in the coming week?

EUR/USD – Double Bottom or Further Declines?

Sunday, October 21, 2018

Stock Market Bubbles, Balloons, Needles and Pins / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Raul_I_Meijer

It’s no surprise that China has its own plunge protection team -but why were they so late?-, nor that Beijing blames its problems on Trump’s tariffs. GDP growth was disappointing at 6.5%, but who’s ever believed those almost always dead on numbers? It would be way more interesting to know what part of that growth has been based on debt and leverage. But that we don’t get to see.

So we turn elsewhere. How about the Shanghai Composite Index? It may not be a perfect reflection of the Chinese economy, no more than the S&P 500 is for the US, but it does raise some valid and curious questions.

Saturday, October 20, 2018

The Incredibly Bullish Set-Up for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses the bullish set-up for gold and why he believes this time is different. For the first time in months, Fido the Wonder Dog has been in my office and at the foot of my bed 24/7 for the past few days giving me great solace that the current advance in precious metals prices is here to stay. Gone are his nervous tics every time my chair squeaks or when I give a little "Whoop-whoop!" at the sight of decent gold quote and most certainly absent are all of the caked mudballs in his fur from having to sleep (hide) under the tool shed.

Saturday, October 20, 2018

Here Comes the Stock Market Retest / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Over the past 2 days I’ve been demonstrating quantitative studies about why the U.S. stock market will probably retest its lows (here and here).

The retest wave is happening right now.

Saturday, October 20, 2018

Checking Gold Stocks Valuations / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

It’s no secret that gold mining stocks are historically cheap and have been for several years.

Traditional metrics like price to cash flow and price to book value showed that gold stocks in late 2015 were at arguably their cheapest points since the start of the bull market in the 1960s.

Other metrics showed gold stocks to be the cheapest since the Roosevelt administration.

It has been almost a year since we examined some of these charts and with the sector moving closer to another epic low, we wanted an update.

Saturday, October 20, 2018

Waterproof Camera - Olympus Tough TG-5 Setup and First Use / Personal_Finance / Travel & Holidays

By: HGR

If you have been looking for a rugged compact camera that you can go swimming with then you undoubtedly will have come across the Olympus Tough TG-5 that is priced towards the top of the range these cameras between £320 and £400, against an average price of about £200 for the range for waterproof cameras. So in this comprehensive series of videos we put the Olympus Tough TG-camera through it's paces to see if it actually delivers all that it promises. In this our 2nd video in this series we set-up and use a TG-5 Camera for the first time.

Friday, October 19, 2018

Israel’s 50-Year Time Bomb, Pushing Palestinians to the Edge / Politics / Israel

By: Dan_Steinbock

Why Is the Trump Administration Compounding Palestinian Distress?

In the quest to change Israel's very nature, the Netanyahu government is pushing Palestinians to an edge - with the support of the Trump White House.

Recently, a report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that “deepening rifts between key stakeholders and surging violence in Gaza further imperil prospects for peace.” That should not come as a surprise anymore.

Friday, October 19, 2018

Savings – Not Tariffs Will Make America Great Again / Politics / US Politics

By: Antonius_Aquinas

While the farcical Kavanaugh confirmation hearings dominated the news cycle for the past couple of weeks, little mention was made of a disturbing economic headline – the August US trade deficit. Despite all the bluster from the Trump Administration about “winning trade wars” and “trade wars are easy,” America’s trade imbalances for August were the highest ever and its deficit with its most contentious partner – China – reached an all-time high.

Friday, October 19, 2018

Bitcoin Trend Analysis 2018 / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Here's my latest update on the prospects for the Bitcoin price for the remainder of 2018 and beyond.

But firstly a recap of my forecast for 2018 which I published when the crypto was trading at USD 14,000, warning that the Bitcoin price was likely to continue crashing lower towards $5,000, a forecast that at the time was met with much denial from the bitcoin community that appeared to have pinned their hopes on the crypto revisiting $20k.

Friday, October 19, 2018

Gold Would Not Enjoy That FOMC Is Going More Restrictive / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

“Policy would need to become modestly restrictive for a time.” This is the key quote from the recent FOMC minutes. This is not a reason for gold’s joy.

Fed Is Becoming More Hawkish

Yesterday, the Fed released minutes from the recent FOMC meeting. As everyone knows, the Committee hiked interest rates by another 25 basis points in September. But what about the future stance? Well, the minutes signal that the FOMC is going to be more hawkish in the near future (as we have been warning for some time). The key paragraph is as follows:

Friday, October 19, 2018

History's Worst Stock Market Crash and the Greatest Investing Lesson! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: Nadeem_Walayat

It's that time of the year again when the stock market doom merchants are at their most vocal as they focus on the historic apex of the darkest day of the darkest month for stocks of the year, October 19th, the 31st anniversary of the 1987 Black Monday that saw the stock market crash by an unprecedented 22% in just one day that few saw coming but ever since many prophesise the repeat of each October, regardless of what the stock market has actually been doling each year as the perma bear crowd can always be seen literally jumping up and down like demented rabbits proclaiming that a crash is once more imminent, pointing to a myriad of harbingers of the imminent stock market apocalypse such as the Hindenburg Omen. Against which the historic record paints a picture of a coin toss having proved infinitely more accurate than the perma crash is coming calls awaiting their broken clock moment to proclaim success.