Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Friday, May 08, 2009
Nasdaq Q's on the Move / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
The PowerShares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQQ) slowly climbs to the upside off of its two-day double-bottom formation at 33.88, towards another test of resistance up at 34.74 (this morning’s high). If the Q’s can claw their way above 34.74 – especially late in today’s session – I will be expecting a powerful upside follow-through that revisits this week’s high at 35.30, possibly on the way to my optimal next target at 36.20/50. At this juncture only a plunge beneath 33.88 will wreck the still constructive pattern.
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Friday, May 08, 2009
Stock Market Pre NonFarm Payrolls Profit Taking Sets In / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
U.S. stocks fell prey to some pre nonfarm payroll profit taking which is hardly surprising given their recent gravity defying stellar up move. Tech and telecom sectors bore the brunt of the selling pressure while retailers were the sole bright spot. Weak demand at yesterday’s Treasury auction also rattled confidence as traders fretted that a rise in yields could choke off refinancing and increase mortgage costs and resets.
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Friday, May 08, 2009
Opportunities in Gold, Stocks and Currencies on Increased Global Risk Appetite / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
You must have read by now that about 70% of activity in currency markets over the last 2 years has been largely driven by risk appetite, with equity indices being the primary independent variable steering FX flows. But there are times when currencies peak or bottom 2-3 days before equities begin to turnaround. The more resounding and recent example was the March 4th bottom in the EURUSD (peak in the US dollar), which occurred 2 days before the low in the major stocks indices.
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Friday, May 08, 2009
Is The Stock Market Rally For Real? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Whether we are seeing the beginning of a new bull market or just another bear market rally, the two month upswing has been quite extraordinary. As can be expected, the perma-bears and perma-bulls are out in full force, arguing their case with the vigor of someone that has a direct line to Nostradamus. Where do I stand? While the recent move upward has been encouraging, I have not joined the longs. Why?
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Friday, May 08, 2009
Bank Stress Test Results...Do you Believe the Stock Market Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Since my return from holiday, I have been scratching my head wondering why the market (in this case the S&P) has moved so high for little or no reason. The economy still appears to be very much on the defensive with unemployment rising and the business environment still on a slippery slope.
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Friday, May 08, 2009
What to Do When Stock Market Panic Buying Begins / Stock-Markets / Investing 2009
Most people would consider Claypool Hill, Virginia, a typical U.S. town.
It is home to 1,912 folks. It’s situated about halfway between Lexington, Kentucky and Richmond Virginia.
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Thursday, May 07, 2009
Stock Market Rally a Symmetrical Correction or Filling the Gaps? / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
It is always important to understand both the bullish and bearish case. The next step is to have game plans for both outcomes. Positive signals are coming from markets around the globe and from numerous asset classes. We all know the bearish case - we are overdue for a correction, financial crisis, etc. The bullish case is based on improving fundamentals and improving technicals. Chart gaps are part of a potentially bullish technical picture. Gaps exist above several markets - gaps that could be filled before or after a correction.
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Thursday, May 07, 2009
Correction in Progress for the S&P 500 Index / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
In classic technical fashion, this AM the e-Mini S&P 500 (e-SPM) spiked about 1% above the top of its Apr.-May channel (920) from where it reversed to the downside back beneath the confines of the upper channel line, which much more often than not, is a signal that the most recent upward traverse across the channel is complete- and that a correction already is in progress. The peak at 929.50 ended the upleg from the 4/27 pivot low at 838.50. Since the earlier recovery high, the e-SPM has reversed and declined to an intraday low so far at 908.50.
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Thursday, May 07, 2009
China the One Investment Market that is Vibrant, Healthy, and Growing / Stock-Markets / China Stocks
Tony Sagami writes: When is the last time you heard someone brag about how much money they were making as a day trader or house flipper? Answer: Not for a long, long time.
How about a red-hot IPO? Can you even name one IPO from this year?
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Thursday, May 07, 2009
Stock Market Strong as a Bull, or Overbought? / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
If you look back 22 months, to July 2007, there have been 4 occasions where the 30 day Relative Strength has been 58 or higher.
Those occasions are on the chart below.
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Thursday, May 07, 2009
S&P Above 900 As Stock Markets Dismiss Stress Tests / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Another day and another 100 points (plus) rise for the Dow, easy isn’t it? The U.S. Government could not have choreographed this better, for the market is now surely inured to the drip-feed of stress test leaks that presumably put the bad news up front. If the stress tests are to be successful, they need to be credible, and they need to impart a message that the financial sector’s capital demands are manageable. On the latter, the aggregate sum looks easily to be within the bounds of the deep pockets of Uncle Sam, and thankfully so, for if we were dependent on private capital it would be a very different proposition.
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Thursday, May 07, 2009
Gold, Silver, Oil and Stocks Technical Trading Summer Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
I have put together some interesting charts using the weekly time frame because they provide a cleaner picture of what to look for in the financial markets over the next 3-6 months.
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Thursday, May 07, 2009
Stock Market Indices Hold Support and Continue Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The stock market indices snapped back today and closed with solid gains after a very steep morning sell-off. They came back with a vengeance in a 3-wave rally that saw them reach new highs on the S&P 500 at 920 with about an hour to go. At that point the Nasdaq 100 failed to reach its highs and they sold off, but held the intraday trendlines and snapped back in the last 10-15 minutes to closer higher.
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Wednesday, May 06, 2009
The Current Financial Market Collapse: Contours of Crisis: Fiction and Reality Part II / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
Continued from.... The Boundaries of IrrationalityBut not all is lost. Convention has it that there is nonetheless order in the chaos, a certain rationality in the irrationality. The basic reason is that greed tends to operate mostly on the upswing, whereas fear usually sets in on the downswing. “We tend to label such behavioral responses as non rational,” explains the ever-quotable Alan Greenspan, “But forecasters’ concerns should be not whether human response is rational or irrational, only that it is observable and systematic.”[Note 25] Regularity puts limits on irrationality; limits imply predictability; and predictability helps keep the faith intact and the laity in place.
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Wednesday, May 06, 2009
The Current Financial Market Collapse: Contours of Crisis: Fiction and Reality Part II / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
Shimshon Bichler and Jonathan Nitzan write: This is the second in our Contours of Crisis paper series. The first article set the stage for the series. It began by outlining the conventional view that this is a finance-led crisis, that this turmoil was triggered and amplified by “financial excesses”; it then described the domino sequence of collapsing markets—a process that started with the meltdown of the U.S. housing and FIRE sectors (finance, insurance and real estate), expanded to the entire financial market, and eventually pulled down the so-called “real economy”; and, finally, it situated the pattern and magnitude of the current decline in historical context.
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Wednesday, May 06, 2009
Stock Market Trends for May 2009- Buying Bear Market Rallies / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Analyzing monthly stock market trends uses the S&P 500 charts to indicate important trend lines. Trend following is a proven strategy to beat the market and grow your stock portfolio. Technical analysis provides the tools to analyze and identify trends in the stock market. Since the S&P 500 trend line chart is the one used by professional traders for their analysis, it is important to understand how it is performing.
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Wednesday, May 06, 2009
Why Stock Market 2009 is Turning Out to be a Repeat of 1975 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
The impressive recovery in the S&P 500 index to date has been brought to us courtesy of a massive shift in the market’s internal rate of change. This was characterized by the extreme diminution of stocks making the new 52-week lows list on the NYSE since the early March bottom.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 06, 2009
Market-Based Bank Stress Test May Relieve Anxiety / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2009
The stress test may be causing more harm than good. Why? Regulators should always have a good assessment of the health of financial institutions. If there are deficiencies in the process applied to regulate banks, then the process for the system as a whole should be reviewed.
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Wednesday, May 06, 2009
Signs of a Continued Stock Market Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
It's been a while since I made any posts about the market because there hasn't been much to discuss. A few weeks ago, I mentioned that the 8200 level was fairly significant and represented a pivotal point in the market. Since then, the market has rallied to this level and has stuck around.
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Wednesday, May 06, 2009
Stock Markets Calm Ahead of Bank Stress Test Results / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Markets paused for reflection and traded in a narrow range yesterday finishing neutral after their recent bout of bullish fireworks. The S&P 500 managed to just hold onto the 900 handle. Oil stocks struggled on a fall in crude prices while Disney shone on better than expected numbers. This was despite more upside data surprises this time from the services ISM and a cautiously upbeat testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke. However news that Bank of America may require $35 billion in additional capital has futures in the red this morning.
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