Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, July 28, 2008
FTSE 100 Stock Market Seasonal Trend Analysis into End 2008 / Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Global stock markets have performed abysmally during the year to date, with many of the worlds stock markets having triggered technical bear markets on falls of more than 20% from their 2007 peaks. The FTSE 100 index is no exception, which triggered a bear market just over a week ago. However a bounce ensued from the oversold state which was anticipated in the analysis for the Dow Jones on 14th of July which called for an imminent bottom for the stock markets and a volatile trend higher into September 2008 for an advance of approx 10%.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Dow Jones Stocks Index Major Deviation from Presidential Cycle / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
Long-term trend - The Dow Jones Industrials may be deviating from their typical decennial pattern in an election year. Important cycles going into the Fall could be the reason for this, but one also has to consider the possibility that the downward pressure from the 120-yr cycle, which is due to make its low in 2012-2014 has begun to take effect and that October 2007 was the top of the bull market. This is not yet confirmed and remains a low probability.
SPX: Intermediate trend - It is possible that the intermediate term correction was completed at 1201. More likely, this is only a counter-trend rally which probably has a little farther to go.
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Sunday, July 27, 2008
Stock Market Short-term Overbought But Lows Should Hold / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Since the low, a week ago last Tuesday, new lows have all but disappeared.
Short Term - The market is overbought. A variety of short term indicators hit their highest levels in a while.
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Sunday, July 27, 2008
Stock Market Roller Coaster- Forecasting the Markets, Where Next? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Financial markets witnessed another roller-coaster week as renewed concerns about the global economy and the health of the financial sector surfaced, resulting in a mixed week for world stock and bond markets, an improved US dollar and continued weakness in oil and commodities.
US stocks plummeted on Thursday after two days of gains as investors' recent optimism was dented by renewed doubts about financials stocks, manifesting in the sector dropping 6.8% – its largest one-day decline in more than eight years.
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Sunday, July 27, 2008
Have the Stock Markets Reached a Bottom? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Adam_Perl
The financial markets bounced back and forth last week, affected by a wave of economic data and earnings from a few of the largest names in the U.S market. The biggest surprise came out on Friday as the housing sector showed that it still has some fight left in it, with new and existing home sales - beating analyst's estimates. As the housing crisis is one of the major causes of the current economic situation, it is only legitimate to think that if the current housing crisis improves, the economy will regain its strength, heading back on track. Then again, is this a valid conclusion or only wishful thinking? Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 26, 2008
Stocks Primary Bear Market Trend and Crude Oils Unsustainable Advance / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Tim_Wood
In late June I posted an article here explaining that Crude Oil was in an unsustainable parabolic spike. Then, on July 15th I had a short-term sell signal that immediately evolved into a sell signal of intermediate degree. The question now is whether or not this intermediate-term sell signal further evolves into marking an even longer-term top, or if it is a mere correction in the path of an even longer-term advance. Monitoring the Cycle Turn Indicator at the various levels will be key at answering this question. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 26, 2008
Stocks Bear Market Fed by Falling Earnings Expectations / Stock-Markets / Corporate Earnings
By: John_Mauldin
- Earnings and Mr. Bear
- Earnings Before Bad Stuff
- How Ugly Can it Get?
- A Lean Mean Reversion Machine
- Some Thoughts on Energy
"The stock market is a voting machine in the short run and a weighing machine in the long run." - Benjamin Graham
The voting part of the equation is tempered by fear and greed. It is largely emotional, although investors like to think of themselves as rational players. That emotion is driven by views of the future. If you can be confident of large and growing returns, you are less likely to be swayed by the erratic movements of a stock. But as confidence wanes? Well, that is the stuff that bear markets are made of.
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Saturday, July 26, 2008
Financial Stocks Bottom, is Wall Street Living in Fantasy land? / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: My daughters love Fantasyland at Walt Disney World. The two-and-a-half year old is a fan of Cinderella's merry-go-round, while my five-and-a-half year old likes Dumbo's flying elephant ride. Heck, if they had their way, my girls would go to Fantasyland every year.
But even that wouldn't be enough for Wall Street's big money managers. They seem to head back to "Financial Fantasyland" once every few months. And the latest trip has been a real doozy.
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Friday, July 25, 2008
IndyMac Checks and Stocks Bounce, Commodities Deflate / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The fear, the hassle, the long lines in the hot sun, and now the wait . Many IndyMac customers who are moving their money to another bank won't be able to access all of their funds for more than a week. By law, the other banks must make IndyMac cashier's check deposits up to $5,000 available for withdrawal in one business day. But any amount over that can be held up to nine business days. It is reported that some banks are not taking IndyMac checks at all.
An FDIC takeover of a bank is no fun for the depositors. Even though the accounts are insured up to $100,000, the FDIC can only piecemeal out withdrawals until they have settled their audits. The inconvenience factor is very high. That is yet another reason for doing due diligence on your own bank or credit union before the authorities have stepped in.
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Friday, July 25, 2008
Broadening Top Megaphone Pattern Predicted Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Robert_McHugh_PhD
“The Jaws of Death” - The following chart was shown regularly throughout 2007, as we made the point that stocks, specifically the Dow Industrials, had traced out a huge, ominous, major Broadening Top pattern which suggested a long and sharp plunge would follow.
Here is what we said in the August 2007 expanded weekend issue: “We researched and discovered that almost all the major stock market tops of the past century were marked by a Broadening Top pattern . This pattern, also know as a Megaphone , which also looks like a set of jaws, is uniquely characterized by two mirroring boundary lines. The top boundary line is ascending; the bottom boundary line is descending.
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Friday, July 25, 2008
Stocks Bear Market Phases / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Mike_Shedlock
In a bull market, everyone ignores the greed and fraud that running rampant. No one wants to take away the spiked punch, even after it is perfectly clear that everyone is drunk. The party continues long after any reasonable person might have expected the party to end. Eventually the party goers all pass out on the floor and the pool of greater fools exhausts itself. In a bear market, there are more distinct, readily observable phases.
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Friday, July 25, 2008
Profit From the Trillion Dollar U.S. Budget Deficit / Stock-Markets / US Debt
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: The federal budget deficit hasn't received a lot of press lately, what with all the worries about the U.S. financial system, the home mortgage market, and the rescues that might be necessary to save both. In fact, it's a bad sign, since the Bush administration and the Democrats in Congress have joint responsibility for keeping the budget deficit under control, so they would both be crowing about it if they were doing a good job. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 25, 2008
Unwinding Yen Carry Trade Feeding Stocks Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Yen Carry Trade
By: Richard_Gorton
The yen carry trade unwound as Martin Crutsinger Associated Press related the National Association of Realtor Report that sales of existing homes fell more sharply than expected in June. Sales dropped by 2.6 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.86 million units which left sales 15.5 percent below where they were a year ago. The drop in sales pushed inventories of unsold single-family homes and condominiums to 4.49 million units. That represented a 11.1 month supply at the June sales pace, the second highest level in the past 24 years. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Brazils' Stock Market Bubble Has Burst / Stock-Markets / Brazil
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Since its July 15 low, the iShares Brazil ETF (AMEX: EWZ) was up 2.5% through yesterday's close whereas the SPY was up 6.7%. In addition, the pattern carved out by the EWZ has taken the shape of a bearish coil, which warns me to expect another bout of weakness.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 24, 2008
FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair Is Out Of Control / Stock-Markets / Government Intervention
By: Mike_Shedlock
In a sad twist of irony Shelia Bair is accusing blogs of being "out of control".
Sadder still is the fact that San Francisco Business Times writer Mark Calvey agrees. Please consider the incredibly inane article FDIC learns it ignores bloggers at its peril .
The federal agency insuring bank deposits learned that it can't afford to ignore the blogs following its seizure this month of IndyMac Bank, the largest bank failure since the 1980s.
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Oil and Food Prices Falling, Real Estate Stabilizing, Stocks Soaring, Crisis Over? / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Money_and_Markets
Imagine the following: The price of oil falls back to $107 ... gas prices drop to say, $3.50 a gallon or lower ... and food prices decline 10% or even 20%.
Simultaneously, the real estate market stabilizes. Foreclosures peak ... new and existing home sales pick up ... and consumers start spending again, opening up their wallets and purses.
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Thursday, July 24, 2008
Panic Building on Wall Street / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Adrian_Ash
Before getting into this missive, I would like to state that other silver commentators make a very strong case for silver being a metal that does well in good, prosperous times. I absolutely agree. If the world at large were gaining in real wealth and the economy were humming along, we all might be purchasing flat screen TV's and using even more silver than we do today. Bottom line, silver does not need bad times to do well. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 24, 2008
China's Government Set on Making Stock Market Bottom / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
By: Money_and_Markets
Tony Sagami writes: For thousands of years, China was ruled by dynasty after dynasty before finally becoming a republic in 1912. In 1949, the Communist People's Republic of China was formed after the defeat of the Nationalist forces. And in 1978, Deng Xiaoping ascended to power and began a series of economic reforms.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
The Greatest Transfer of Wealth in History is About to Unfold / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System
By: Ty_Andros
As we look out over the next six months what we see will be extraordinary. The opportunities for prepared investors have never been brighter as the unfolding volatility will be incredible. “Volatility is Opportunity ” for the prepared investor and it will arrive in spades. After a short period of corrective activity I believe explosive moves in almost ALL SECTORS (interest rates, stocks, commodities, natural resources, currencies, and more) lay on the near horizon. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Banking Crisis Alert -How Safe is Your Bank / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Marty_Chenard
Sunday's headline coming out of Washington was :"Paulson braces public for months of tough times"
Paulson had these comments:"I think it's going to be months that we're working our way through this period -- clearly months,"
"The number of troubled banks will increase as they struggle to cope with big losses on bad mortgages."
In one breath, he was telling Americans to "brace themselves for tough times ahead". In the next breath, he was essentially saying, don't worry, the US Banking system is sound.
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