Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, February 04, 2019
Stock Market Fib Resistance Warning to Err on Side of Caution / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The S&P 500 (SPX) is right at a price zone pointing more towards a meaningful give-back in the short-term.
This zone of resistance can be viewed through the Fibonacci price and time relationships on the daily SPX chart.
As the chart shows, as of Friday's close, the SPX resided approximately 16% above its late December lows, amounting to an exact 62% Fibonacci recovery of the entire prior decline from the Sep 21 all-time-high at 2940.91 to the Dec 26 low at 2346.58.
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Monday, February 04, 2019
Stock Market Decision Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Long-term trend resuming?
Intermediate trend – Countertrend may be over.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Monday, February 04, 2019
Is The Stock Market Manic? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
VIX challenged Long-term support at 16.39, closing beneath it on Friday. Primary Cycle [C] has been delayed another week. While investors are heaving a sigh of relief, the Wave structure and Cycles suggest a strong reversal may be imminent.
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Sunday, February 03, 2019
Is the Stock Market Ever Going to Pullback? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
By now everyone is aware that these “crash & rally” patterns are usually followed by a pullback or retest. Most of these pullbacks/retests occur once the S&P has reached its 50% retracement. But with the S&P now having retraced 60% of its Q4 2018 decline, many traders are doubting whether or not the S&P will pullback/retest at all, or if it’s going straight to new all time highs.
Thursday, January 31, 2019
US Stock Market Recovery Hinges On The Next Move / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The research team, at The Technical Trades Ltd., has been calling this market move quite accurately. We made predictions on September 17, 2018, that called for a -5~8% downside market rotation, followed by price support just before the November 2018 US elections. After that, we called for a deep “Ultimate Low” price rotation to setup followed by a strong price rally. Even though we under-estimated the ultimate low-price rotation which was much deeper, our trend predictions from 120 days earlier are playing out quite accurately.
Currently, we are writing this message to all our followers to inform them that the Feb 1 Jobs report, as well as other critical earnings and economic data, are the “unknown factors” that have stalled this upside market move. At this time, it is our belief that capital has already started re-entering the US stock market and that a good portion of these investors are waiting for further evidence that a resurgence of price appreciation will continue without any new crisis events unfolding. Our September 17, 2018 analysis suggested that the US markets would find support after a “revaluation event” and continue an upward price bias. As this point, we believe we have reached the “momentum launchpad”.
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Thursday, January 31, 2019
The Macro Economy is Weakening. What this Means for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
Not much has changed with the S&P 500 hovering around its 50% retracement. We will have a flood of macro data over the next few weeks to digest now that the government shutdown is over. This is very important when it comes to understanding whether or not this bull market will have 1 last leg up or not.
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Wednesday, January 30, 2019
Will Stocks Go Nowhere Over the Next 10 Years? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The U.S. stock market has held up well during this earnings season. Now that earnings season is over, many traders are looking for a pullback/retest. Overall, the statistical evidence for a pullback/retest remains strong and convincing.
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Wednesday, January 30, 2019
Is S&P 500 Ready to Make All-Time High? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: ElliottWaveForecast
S&P 500 formed a significant high at 2947 on Sept 21, 2018 after a 342% rally in 10 years. During the entire rally from year 2009 low, there was no major correction in the Index, that is until last year. In less than 3 months, the Index has dropped 21.4% from the peak. The Index bottomed at 2316.75 on December 26, 2018. It has now retraced more than 50% of the decline.
Is the bull market ready to resume higher? Not so fast. In the following chart, we will show how the Index can face a major resistance in coming days / weeks. The important key pivot remains last year’s high at 2947. As far as this level holds, the Index can still extend lower to break below Dec 26, 2018 low at 2316.75 or pullback in 3 waves at least.
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Wednesday, January 30, 2019
Stock Market Brief - The Suicide of Corporate America / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Christopher_Quigley
One of the main consequences of Quantitative Easing (QE), which many folk are unaware of, is the magnitude of cheap money that has been used to fund corporate share buybacks. From 2007 to 2018 S & P 500 companies have ploughed nearly 6 trillion dollars into such activity. In the main, these companies have borrowed heavily to do so.
In my opinion this short sighted policy is suicidal and could potentially lead to severe deflation in the next recession. Let me explain. Under QE interest rates were artificially low, in fact near zero. The new FED chairman “Jay” Powell has indicated that its policy going forward is to raise rates to a “neutral” level of approx 3%. This will have a major negative draw on corporate profits and will contribute greatly to economic contraction. Given the run up in share prices that we have experienced since this bull market commenced in March 2009, it is readily accepted that the S & P 500 could fall by at least 50% when the inevitable recession eventually materializes. This means that corporate balance sheets are going to take trillions of dollars of losses on these share buybacks. For example given the near halving of Apple’s share price since October 2018 the company is now nursing a 9 billion dollar share buyback loss. What a fiasco in corporate governance.
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Monday, January 28, 2019
Saudi Stock Market (Tadawul) at pivotal juncture / Stock-Markets / Saudi Arabia
By: MarketsToday
As of yesterday’s (Sunday) 8,528.30 trend high, the Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) has rocketed over 12% in 25 trading days, when counting from the swing low of 7,589.23 on December 23. A long-term bullish trend continuation signal was triggered on the move as the day’s close was at 8,509.43, just above the most recent peak of 8,502.92 from July 2018. Further, yesterday’s close was the highest daily closing price since August 2015.
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Monday, January 28, 2019
Have You Felt Like A 'Genius' In This Stocks Bull Market Or Have You Felt Lost? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
There is an old adage in the market which says that "everyone is a genius in a bull market." What that really means is that as long as you keep looking to the long side in a bull market, you will be seen as a genius.
But, remember, one of the main perquisites for maintaining "genius" status is that we must be in a "bull market." So, how do you know when a bull market is coming to an end?
Many view a 20%+ decline as suggesting we are in a bear market. To explain the extent to which many hold fast to this perspective, allow me to provide you something that I witnessed recently.
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Monday, January 28, 2019
Another Major Stock Market Top at Hand? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Brad_Gudgeon
Last week, I suggested that there would be a major top around the 22nd. That top proved to be January 18 right on the quadruple and powerful Bradley turn, as well as the Venus/Mars trine. That same weekend we had Mars square Saturn. On January 25th we had another Mars trine with Jupiter and the SPX appeared to make a failing ‘b’ wave top with only the Dow Industrials making a new high.Coming out of a rising wedge and making a double top is serious business, especially when you have P/C ratios as low as they are now and the fear has just about left the building. What I’m talking about is another drop coming like we had from October 3 to the December 24/26 bottom.
When I saw the shallow move down last week and the resulting attempt at new highs I knew the market was in trouble. Another thing I observed this week was President Trump asking his staff what important services would be affected if the government were shut down into April. He then suggested that the three week reprieve into February 15th would only last three weeks in which time he may enact his authority to create a national emergency. That got me to thinking.
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Sunday, January 27, 2019
Stock Market Bulls Still in Charge, but… / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Correcting within the very long-term bull market trend.
Intermediate trend – A bearish correction has started which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Sunday, January 27, 2019
Will Liquidity Prevail In The Markets? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
VIX challenged Short-term resistance at 21.77 on Tuesday, but eased back toward long-term support at 16.51 at the close on Friday. The Primary Cycle [C] that may have just started may be a multiple of the Primary Wave [C] of February 2018.
(RealInvestmentAdvice) All Quiet on the Western Front is a 1929 novel which describes German soldiers’ extreme physical and mental stress during World War I, and subsequent detachment from civilian life felt by many soldiers upon returning home. This novel was eventually made into a major motion picture.
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Saturday, January 26, 2019
Dubai Stock Market Faces Potential Bullish Reversal / Stock-Markets / Dubai
By: MarketsToday
DFMGI
- Potential inverse head & shoulders bullish reversal setup in the daily chart for the Dubai Financial Market General Index (DFMGI). (Exposure can also be accessed via iShares MSCI UAE ETF (UAE), traded in the U.S. Although average volume is relatively low.)
- Pattern occurs off December 2,429.12 low, which completed a 34% 14-month decline from the October 2017 swing high.
- Bullish 14-day RSI divergence.
- Breakout triggered on decisive move above 2,561.
- Minimum target objective of approximately 2,716.80 as derived from the head & shoulders pattern (previously support zone from October 2018 & in area of 1.618 Fibonacci projection).
- Other potential targets are highlighted on the below chart and derived from prior price and Fibonacci confluence levels.
- Current pattern is invalid on a daily close below the right shoulder at 2,479.37.
Saturday, January 26, 2019
IMF Proposes a 10% Wealth Tax on NET WORTH / Stock-Markets / Taxes
By: Graham_Summers
They’re coming for your money.
The Everything Bubble has burst and the debt markets are in distress. We’ve already seen yields rise above their long-term downtrend, suggesting that higher debt costs are now a reality.
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Friday, January 25, 2019
Will the Stock Market and U.S. Dollar Fall Together Soon? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
With the stock market stuck at its 50% fibonacci retracement, many traders are looking for a pullback/retest. While the Q4 2018 stock market decline coincided with a flat U.S. Dollar, there’s a high probability that the next pullback/retest will coincide with a falling U.S. Dollar.
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Thursday, January 24, 2019
These Are the 3 Biggest Market Risks in 2019 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: John_Mauldin
A Federal Reserve policy mistake is our top risk this year.
Correction: The mistake is already happening. So that’s less a forecast and more a recognition of reality.
The Fed is raising rates and reversing its quantitative easing. At the same time! They should be doing one or the other, not both.
The media and investors focus on the rates. But as you’ll learn, the global balance sheet reduction may be even more harmful.
If Jerome Powell doesn’t realize this in early 2019—or the rest of the FOMC disagrees with him—2019 could get rocky, and very quickly.
Thursday, January 24, 2019
This Rally Is a Symptom of a Stocks Bear Market, Not a Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: John_Mauldin
BY ROBERT ROSS : “Did you see that the stock market had its best day ever today?”
That’s a quote from my mother.
It was the night of December 26. Earlier that day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had surged over 1000 points.
Some people saw this as a sign that investor confidence had returned.
But big surges like this are common during bear markets. In fact, they happen more in bear markets than bull markets.
Wednesday, January 23, 2019
Is the Stocks Bull Market Over? Or Will There be 1 More Year like 1999? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
With the S&P 500 at its 50% retracement, many traders are looking for a pullback/retest. The bigger question is what happens next after the pullback/retest. Will there be 1 final leg in the bull market, like 1999? Or is the bull market already over?
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