Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, March 04, 2019
Stock Market VIX Likely to Pop Before March 21 / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our researchers believe price cycles and our proprietary Fibonacci modeling system is suggesting the US and Global stock markets may be entering a period of price rotation very soon. Our team of researchers has identified a date span of between March 5th to March 13 as a range of dates where we expect the VIX to form a bottom and begin to rise sharply.
Our researchers believe this current rally in the US stock market is a bit overextended, even though the markets appear to be drifting a bit higher currently. We believe the US stock market is due for a healthy price rotation/correction sometime near the middle of March that will allow new price valuation and momentum to build for a continued upside price move.
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Monday, March 04, 2019
Stock Market Trade Optimism Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Is the long-term trend resuming? Is this a B-wave? Too early to tell!
Intermediate trend – Initial rally is likely coming to an end.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Sunday, March 03, 2019
Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market 2019 / Stock-Markets / Inverted Yield Curve
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Yield Curve Inversion
An inverted yield curve is basically when the yield on 2 year US government bond exceeds the 10 year US bond yield as worried investors opt to disinvest from risky assets in favour of safer longer term government bonds thus driving down long bond yields below that of nearer term bonds. And the closer the yield curve gets towards towards an inversion the greater the likelihood for a future recession. So far the yield curve inversion has successfully forecast the last 3 economic downturns in the United States. Though the YCI has proved less reliable elsewhere, especially for Australia.
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Friday, March 01, 2019
Fed Balance Sheet QE4EVER - Stock Market Trend Forecast Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market soared has soared since the start of 2019, this despite President Trump shutting much of the US government down for 5 weeks accompanied by increasing global economic doom and gloom from a slowdown in China, to Germany teetering on the brink of recession a with Italy already having tipped into recession. And if that were not bad enough we have the train wreck that is BrExit, not the decision to LEAVE the European Union but rather the failure of the UK government / Parliament to implement BrExit in a competent manner, far from it, Parliament has been paralysed with the UK government look set to beg the EU for an extension to Article 50. Nevertheless the major stock indices such as the Dow and the FTSE have SOARED! Confounding not just the usual perma doom merchants out there but much of the mainstream press because most of that which the press peddles has been BAD NEWS!
(Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com)
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Friday, March 01, 2019
Market Forecasting You Just Cant Beat! / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Chris Vermeulen walks you through the financial markets every morning before the opening bell so you know how to trade it and manage your positions.
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Thursday, February 28, 2019
More Short-Term Stock Market Uncertainty as Investors Await Economic Data Releases / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks were mixed again on Wednesday, as investors hesitated following the recent advances. The S&P 500 index continues to trade at the 2,800 resistance level. So is this a topping pattern or just a pause before another leg up?
The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.3% and +0.1% on Wednesday, as investors hesitated following the recent advances. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% on Monday. It got closer to the previous local highs along the 2,800 level. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1% yesterday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at around 2,800-2,820, marked by the previous medium-term local highs. On the other hand, the support level is now at around 2,765-2,780, marked by the recent local lows. The support level is also at the previous Friday's daily gap up of 2,757.90-2,760.24.
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Wednesday, February 27, 2019
The Next Big Stock Market Indicator: Unemployment / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Harry_Dent
I’m always on the lookout for leading indicators that can give us an edge over erratic, irrational markets.There are a lot of them.
Some are complicated, like the popular composite index from the Conference Board. It includes average weekly hours by manufacturing workers, initial applications for unemployment, new manufacturing orders for consumer goods, speed of delivery from suppliers to vendors, new orders for capital goods, new residential building permits, S&P 500 stock index, inflation-adjusted money supply (M2), spread between long- and short-term rates, and consumer sentiment.
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Wednesday, February 27, 2019
Stock Market Beware of Confirmation Bias / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
Albert Einstein once said: “Few people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are incapable of forming such opinions."
To Mr. Einstein, it was quite clear that people have their biases, and it is extremely rare that they are able to disassociate themselves from those biases, if ever. It is for this reason that investor seek out analysts who provide support to their pre-determined biases. We call this bias confirmation. And, almost every investor you speak to is afflicted with this condition.
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Wednesday, February 27, 2019
Slowing Stock Market Rally, What's Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
For the first time since the stock market’s bottom in December 2018, the S&P has closed in the bottom 1/3 of its daily range for 2 consecutive days. In other words, the stock market’s rally is slowing down.
Meanwhile, the housing market continues to deteriorate. Housing is a key leading indicator for the economy and stock market.
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Wednesday, February 27, 2019
Examining Trading Platforms: Features to Watch For / Stock-Markets / Trading Systems
By: Umer_Mahmood
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Tuesday, February 26, 2019
Stock Traders Must Stay Optimistic – The End / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This, the final segment of our multi-part research post regarding the potential future market direction as well as to identify if there is any real concern for traders regarding a “total market collapse” as some Doomsayers are predicting should help you understand what our researchers believe is the most likely outcome. In the previous segments of this research post, we’ve covered everything from the globalization of markets and economies to key elements of core pricing levels and valuation levels of economies, equities markets and more. The data is out there if you know where to find it and how to read it. All one has to do is step back from the shorter term charts and see the bigger picture for a bit.
Tuesday, February 26, 2019
This is the Stock Market’s Biggest 2 month Rally Since 2009. What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
It has been exactly 2 months since the stock market’s bottom on Christmas Eve 2018. Since then, the S&P has rallied more than 18%, which makes this one of the biggest 2 month rallies of all time.
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Tuesday, February 26, 2019
Federal Reserve Colludes With Banks To Drive Up Stock Prices / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Barry_M_Ferguson
Insider trading occurs when someone makes money investing in a public market with knowledge unavailable to the public. Martha Stewart was jailed for such activity or more specifically, lying about insider trading.
Insider trading is a charge reserved for little people. The swamp protects its own.
Insider trading was even perfectly legal for our members of Congress until just a few years ago. Speaker of the House Pelosi is known to have made a tidy fortune with such privilege. For instance, when Visa announced an IPO, Ms. Pelosi bought in. Is she a great investor? Hardly. There was legislation in the House that would have added regulations to credit card companies like Visa but Ms. Pelosi made sure that legislation never made it to the voting floor. Imagine, a proposed government regulation that Pelosi did NOT agree with. I wonder why? Visa IPO’d and burst higher enriching Ms. Pelosi. Today, the same speaker calls for a ‘moral economy’. Really?
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Monday, February 25, 2019
S&P 500 Gets Closer to 2,800, Will Stocks Continue Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
The broad stock market slightly extended its short-term uptrend on Friday following breaking above the recent consolidation. But will stocks continue higher despite some clear technical overbought conditions?
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.6-0.9% on Friday, as investors' sentiment remained bullish following the recent advances. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its October-December downward correction of 20.2%. It got closer to the previous local highs along the 2,800 level. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.9% on Friday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at around 2,800, marked by the previous medium-term local highs. On the other hand, the support level is now at 2,765-2,780, marked by the recent local lows. The support level is also at the previous Friday's daily gap up of 2,757.90-2,760.24.
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Monday, February 25, 2019
Stock Traders Must Stay Optimistic – Part 4 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Welcome to Part IV of our multi-part research post delving into the global markets, global opportunities and the current “revaluation” even that is taking place. We started this quest from a simple question, “are the Doomsayers correct in their analysis that the US and global markets would collapse in a spectacular form in the near future?”. We wanted to dig into this in more detail to prove they were right or to prove our analysis was correct and the markets are simply “re-balancing” in the process of developing greater opportunity.
So far, we’ve covered topics related to globalization, central banks, global GDP and capital asset deployment forms. We’ve highlighted how the transition from regional economies into global inter-connected economies is now nearly complete and we’ve highlighted how we believe a collapse event could only take place if the largest global economies were to experience some type of massive crisis event. Unless these types of massive crisis events unfold, the most likely outcome is what we have been proposing all along – a re-balancing/revaluation event cycle that is preparing current market valuations for a momentum breakout rally in the future.
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Sunday, February 24, 2019
$SPY Stock Market Index Heading for All-Time High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: ElliottWaveForecast
The ETF is rallying from the blue box after forming the low on 12.26.2018, Blue box is an area where buyers and sellers agree in the next direction. We have developed a system in which we present the boxes to members on our charts and combine it with the right side to enter the market. The decline in $SPY from all-time high is in a classic ABC which is a set of 2 cycles. Each cycle has a subdivision of 5 waves and it’s commonly called zigzag Elliott Wave structure.
After ending the zigzag, the ETF has reacted higher in what looks like an impulse. The Elliott Wave Theory describes an Impulse as a sequence of 5-3-5-3-5. The Impulse main rules are :
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Sunday, February 24, 2019
Trade Talks Drive Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Long-term trend resuming?
Intermediate trend – Initial rally is likely coming to an end.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Sunday, February 24, 2019
Stock Market Up 9 Weeks in a Row. What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The Dow and NASDAQ are up 9 weeks in a row when you compare this week’s CLOSE to the previous week’s CLOSE, while the S&P is up 9 weeks in a row when you compare this week’s CLOSE to this week’s OPEN.
The most likely path forward is a short term pullback, with more gains ahead for 2019. Above all else, remember that the short term is extremely hard to predict, no matter how much conviction you have in it.
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Friday, February 22, 2019
Stock Traders Must Be Cautious Part III / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Welcome back, If you’ve missed any part of this multi-part research post, please visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/FreeResearch/ to review and read our previous posts. This, Part III, of our multi-part research post where we are attempting to rationalize the continued bearish analysis of some other analysts as well as review some key data that may support our interpretation that the global markets are transitioning through a “revaluation phase” right now – headed for a breakout rally eventually will continue with more detailed information. Our premise is that global investors and traders should stay cautiously optimistic at the moment and prepare for some volatility as this “revaluation phase” continues to play out. Our overall analysis suggests that the US Federal Reserve and global central banks have “primes the cylinders” of the global economic engine sufficiently and that a spark is all that is needed to see massive new valuation and GDP increases within the next 10~20+ years.
Friday, February 22, 2019
Stock Traders Must Stay Optimistically Cautious II / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This Part II of our research post regarding the future potential of any very deep market correction and/or a potential new-age market rally based on our presumption that the global market dynamics have changed dramatically over the past 20+ years. Are the market gurus correct in thinking the next big move will be to the downside? Or are they missing key aspects of the global market dynamics that point to a massive upside rally that is setting up for the future. Today, we continue to explore some of the key elements that we believe present a total scope of the potential for the global markets.
In Part I of this article, we highlighted how globalization changed the planet and increased inter-dependence across the globe for economies and governments. The point we wanted to make from the first segment was to highlight the fact that the current world economies are vastly different than the global economy prior to 1980 or 1970. Over the past 20+ years, the world’s economies have become more and more connected and interdependent on one another. Additionally, global investors and financial institutions have become heavily interconnected and reliant on the global market economies of the world. The reality is, the world is vastly different than it was 40+ years ago in terms of finance, banking, and investment objectives.
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