Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, May 14, 2018

Has The Stock Market Crash Been Put On Hold Again? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

Last weekend, I wrote an article entitled "The Market Is Going To Crash." The response to that article garnered over 55,000 hits on Seeking Alpha, which is about 4-5 times the reads that I normally get on a stock market update.

This gives me anecdotal insight into where the overall sentiment is in the market today. It seems most investors are leaning quite bearish, and are looking for articles that support their own bearish bias.

Monday, May 14, 2018

Stocks Bears Last Stand / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
 
Intermediate trend – The intermediate correction from 2873 should continue until about early June.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Sunday, May 13, 2018

Stocks Bear Markets Don’t Start when Real Interest Rates are this Low / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Troy_Bombardia

The biggest fear among bearish investors is that “the Fed hiking interest rates will kill the economy and stock market”. But here’s the mistake they’re making.

Interest rates don’t matter. REAL (inflation-adjusted) interest rates are what matters. Real interest rates are still low right now.

This chart demonstrates the real, inflation-adjusted 10 year yield. It subtracts year-over-year Core CPI growth from the 10 year Treasury yield.

Sunday, May 13, 2018

Stocks and Bonds Still Only 1 of 3 Macro Amigos to Destination / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

It’s the happy-go-lucky 3 Amigos (in play since we began this goofy metaphor last fall), which would signal macro changes to come. When you are talking about the macro however, things move slowly and to date, only one of our riders has made it to his destination.

To review, they are Amigos 1-3, Chevy, Steve and Martin.

1. Stocks vs. Gold
2. 10yr & 30yr Yields
3. The 10yr-2yr Yield Curve

Saturday, May 12, 2018

Study: Breadth is Leading the Stock Market Higher. A Bullish Sign / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

In today’s daily post we stated that the NYSE’s Advance-Decline cumulative line (breadth indicator) has made a new high even though the S&P 500 hasn’t.

Friday, May 11, 2018

Big US Stocks Fundamentals, New Bear Market Awakening? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The mega-cap stocks that dominate the US markets are just wrapping up a truly-extraordinary earnings season.  Naturally this first quarter under Republicans’ new corporate tax cuts fueled surging profits.  But sales were up big too, which is no mean feat for massive companies.  With sustained growth at this torrid pace impossible, peak-earnings fears are mounting.  And valuations stayed extremely expensive exiting Q1.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs contain the best fundamental data available to investors and speculators.  They dispel all the sentimental distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing the underlying hard fundamental realities.

Thursday, May 10, 2018

What happens to the Stock Market when VIX closes below 14 / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: Troy_Bombardia

VIX closed below 14 yesterday for the first time since February 1, 2018. This study examines what happens next to the stock market (historically) when VIX closes below 14 for the first time in at least 3 months.

Thursday, May 10, 2018

Stock Market Upside Breakout Pattern to New All Time Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Since before the start of 2018, we have been relying on our advanced predictive modeling systems, technical analysis and our understanding of the capital markets to help our members take advantage of the incredible price swings in 2018.  For those that have been following our calls, we’ve pretty much nailed every market turn over the past 5+ months perfectly and have been able to call many of the tops and bottoms in the markets two to three weeks (or more) in advance.  Honestly, do you know of any other research firm that can call marker reversals nearly a month in advance and be correct in timing it?

Thursday, May 10, 2018

How This Classic Market Theory Can Warn You of Big Stock Market Turns / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: EWI

Dow Theory non-confirmations attend the start of every big bear market

Dow Theory is a time-honored market analysis tool. Its name comes from Charles H. Dow, co-founder of The Wall Street Journal.

Thursday, May 10, 2018

The S&P 500 and Treasury Yields: A 20-year perspective / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Donald_W_Dony

This is a chart comparison between the S&P 500 and the 10-year yields. It shows the rise in bond yields is a normal action during a bull market.

In the last phase of the 1980 to 2000 secular equity rise and throughout the 2003 to 2007 bull market, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields advanced.

Wednesday, May 09, 2018

Stock Market Cycle Inversion... Watch Out Below! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX futures were as high as 2684.50, possibly completing Wave [v] of C of (2). Wave [v] is equal to Wave [i] at 2700.00. Wave C may go as high as 2717.00 in a flat Wave (2).

You can see that I have penciled in the upper trendline of a Triangle formation. However, Triangles are corrective affairs and neither Wave [1] nor (1) are corrective. This is setting up to be a bull trap of major proportions.

Wednesday, May 09, 2018

Stock Market Study: Falling Initial Claims is Medium-long term Bullish for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Initial Claims made a new low for this economic expansion in April 2018. This is a medium-long term bullish sign for the stock market. Initial Claims leads the economy, which leads the stock market.

Tuesday, May 08, 2018

Study: Does the year-over-year change in Corporate Earnings Lead the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

I concluded that the absolute value of corporate earnings does not consistently lead the stock market in a previous study. I.e. sometimes corporate earnings fall before the stock market falls, sometimes the stock market falls before corporate earnings fall.

But what about the rate of change in corporate earnings? Does the change in corporate earnings GROWTH (i.e. second derivative of corporate earnings) lead the stock market? It appears to be the case from 1990-present.

Tuesday, May 08, 2018

Do Corporate Earnings Lead the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Corporate Earnings

By: Troy_Bombardia

I’ve been building more quantitative trading models recently. I know that some hedge funds calculate the stock market’s “fair value” and then trade around that fair value. For the record, this is not what I do with the Medium-Long Term Model.

This “fair value” is usually “the stock market’s average P/E ratio during certain market environments”. Here’s an example of how the stock market’s average valuation (P/E ratio) – aka “fair value” – changes based on changes in interest rates.

Monday, May 07, 2018

The Stock Market Is Going To Crash / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

Well, everyone else has been calling for a market crash, so I thought maybe I should too. But, while I think the market will likely crash again, I don’t think it is going to happen just yet, as I still believe this bull market has several more years to run.

When I peruse the articles on Seeking Alpha, it seems to be en vogue today to be bearish. The headline articles discuss how the market has now moved into being a bear market, or that the VIX is about to skyrocket, or the market is overvalued, discussions of black swans, the impending debt crisis, etc.

Monday, May 07, 2018

Stock Market Still Range Bound / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
 
Intermediate trend – The intermediate correction from 2873 should continue until about mid-May.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Monday, May 07, 2018

US Stock Market Indexes Setup Bottom Confirmation Pattern / Stock-Markets / Articles

By: Chris_Vermeulen

On Wednesday, May 2, we issued a research post supporting our position that the markets were nearing an apex breakout and that critical support and resistance levels had established within the market.  We indicated that volatility is usually quite high throughout these apex breakout moves with the potential for a “wash-out” price rotation in the works.  In other words, as these apex breakouts happen, price can sometimes, falsely, break to one side or the other and rotate very quickly to the other side – creating what we call a “wash-out” price reversal.

Closing out this week, prices broke lower on Thursday, May 3, and reversed sharply before the end of the trading session to create a “wash-out” low formation which is indicative of a price bottom.  We felt strongly that our ADL price modeling system’s analysis as well as this bottom formation are strong evidence that the US majors will enter a new upside price trend very quickly.

Sunday, May 06, 2018

Stock Market Golden/Death Cross Model that Yields 16% per year / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

So far I’ve shown you 2 simple trading models that use 1 indicator per model: a Golden/Death Cross model and an Initial Claims model.

Here’s the beauty. When you combine 2 simple ideas and models together, you make it even better. Remember, I said traders who combine fundamentals with technicals perform the best.

Here’s the new model. It’s based off of the Golden/Death Cross Model, but it’s combined with an Initial Claims filter.

Friday, May 04, 2018

One Sure Stocks Bear Market Sign / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Barry_M_Ferguson

Investors should always be on the alert for a bear market. Wouldn’t it be great if there was a clear sign that a bear market was forming? Well, in my opinion, there is.

I call it the formation of a Dikembe Mutombo Line. In our nanny-state, government manipulated, anti-capitalism, totally corrupted, illusion of wealth pseudo economy, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is the ultimate shiny object of hypnotism. The average person on the street has no idea whatsoever how they are being punked every single day.

Thursday, May 03, 2018

Too Many Stock Investors on the Same Side of the Boat / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

SPX futures are down and appear to have declined beneath the May 1 low. The Dow is the first major Index to break its 200-day Moving Average on no news.

ZeroHedge observes, “Dow futures suddenly dropped at around 0745ET - led by a drop in the dollar and Treasury yields - breaking below its 200-day moving average...