Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Tuesday, December 13, 2016
Stock Market Waiting for the FOMC? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
Good Morning!
The SPX Premarket is higher, but the futures have not made a new high. Yesterday’s decline may be impulsive, but the test is whether a new high is made today or not. In addition, the Wave structure appears to be complete as of yesterday morning. We may see some residual bullishness at the open, but the jury is still pondering the verdict as of now.
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Tuesday, December 13, 2016
Nasdaq Leads Stock Market Lower... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
The market bulls are still in control of things, but we all know that there is this one gigantic red flag out there that will come into play at some point. The thing is, we don't know when that will happen, because there is no formula to tell us when it's coming, since every bull market is different. We can look back at history as a guide, but when folks do, it doesn't usually work out very well. The reason is simple. Nothing repeats perfectly, even though we'd like to believe it does. For instance, over the past year-plus we saw 35% on the bull/bear spread start a correction, but we also saw 46% start one.
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Monday, December 12, 2016
Stock Market Top?, Sucker’s Play / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
The current rally from November 4 to December 12 (if indeed it was the top) was Minuette Wave Y of Minute Y. Minute Wave Y (of Minor Wave B) was a wxy inverted, irregular and strong bearish flat. Elliott called these B waves or irregular tops. The Trump rally is basically a "sucker's play". The internals of this rally are sick and very selective; the McClellan Summation Index is miles away from confirming it; the Dow Jones Industrials has far exceeded the SPX, which has far exceeded the NASDAQ creating a case of an inter-market bearish divergence. We also have a huge On-Balance-Volume divergence.
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Monday, December 12, 2016
The Bank of Japan Has Primed the Markets For a Crash / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
This is getting outright ridiculous.
The Bank of Japan is now depreciating the Yen against the $USD on an almost hourly basis.
This is the Yen carry trade. And it’s the SINGLE BIGGEST DRIVER OF THE MARKETS TODAY. As you can see, in the last two weeks, the S&P 500 is following this pair almost tick for tick.
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Monday, December 12, 2016
Stock Market Trading At New Record Highs As Investors' Sentiment Further Improves / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.
Our intraday outlook is neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Monday, December 12, 2016
Stock Market Extreme Greed Reading / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: If the market strength persists, the long-term trend may need to be re-evaluated.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX intermediate count to 2240 may turn out to only be a minimum projection. This will be determined by market action over the next couple of weeks.
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Sunday, December 11, 2016
2007 All Over Again, Stock Market Valuations Enter “Crash” Territory / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
The Trump Christmas stock market rally has taken valuations beyond a point that in the past has signaled trouble, which in turn has generated a lot of cautionary press like the following:
Market indicator hits extreme levels last seen before plunges in 1929, 2000 and 2008
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Sunday, December 11, 2016
End of the World History Stock Chart… / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
I try to show this long term monthly chart for the $COMPQ which I call the “End of the World History Chart” at least once a year or if something interesting takes place. When you look at the 1987 crash it felt like the end of the world at the time but that ended up being the second reversal point in the green bullish rising channel. How many remember the months leading up to the first Gulf war in 1991? No one knew at the time how that conflict would play out as the US was going up against the 5th largest army in the world. On the first night of bombing it was very clear that the conflict would be over quickly and the stock markets took off the very next day which made the fourth reversal point in the green bullish rising channel.
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Sunday, December 11, 2016
Market Outlook 2017 According To Our Proprietary Indicators / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017
It was quite a volatile year, with a mix of collapses and rallies across markets. Think of gold’s breathtaking rise, crude’s collapse, and copper’s rally. After the summer, gold started collapsing while crude and stocks rallied strongly. With this year’s volatility, it is quite challenging to define a market outlook for 2017. To get a sense of what 2017 will bring, we analyze our proprietary market barometer and our leading market indicator.
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Sunday, December 11, 2016
Trump, Reagan Economies at Polar Opposites / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
Market expectations could be based on false assumption
“Looking ahead, Credit Suisse argues against the view of many pundits that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s fiscal policies are likely to hurt gold. The market has factored in an expectation that a mix of U.S. tax cuts, deregulation and infrastructure spending will boost the economy, pushing up real interest rates and strengthening the U.S. dollar. ‘We counter that trade protectionism and anti-immigration policies are negative for growth and positive for inflation,' Credit Suisse said." – SMN News/Kitco
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Saturday, December 10, 2016
Official Warning: Stocks Are Going to Crash / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
Stocks are going to Crash.
This wasn’t the case a mere six weeks ago. But the Bank of Japan has committed one of the most egregious manipulations in history.
The Yen/ $USD pair has imploded by over 14% in the last six weeks. The last time the pair fell this much the BoJ expanded an already monstrous QE program by $260 BILLION.
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Saturday, December 10, 2016
Stock Market Saeculum 1st Turning Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
The market started the week at SPX 2192. After a gap up opening on Monday the SPX rallied to 2252 by Thursday. Then the largest pullback in a week took the SPX down to 2243 late Thursday, before the market rallied and closed at a SPX 2260 all time high on Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 3.10%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 3.35%. Economic reports for the week were light and leaned positive. On the downtick: consumer credit, wholesale inventories, the Q4 GDP estimate, plus the trade deficit increased. On the uptick: ISM services, factory orders, consumer sentiment, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims improved. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the FOMC, retail sales and industrial production. Best to your week!
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Saturday, December 10, 2016
Inevitable Global Ruin: Top Hedge Fund Managers Sound the Alarm / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016
When monetary control is centralized, as it is today, prosperity withers. The Wall Street Journal just surveyed top hedge fund managers and found a significant belief that full-fledged, global ruin is on its way. Tamper with freedom, monetarily or otherwise, and you end up facing catastrophe.
That’s just where we are today.
The managers pointed directly at the purposeful monetary mismanagement of central banks around the world. These central banks large and small are pumping oceans of money into financial markets as well as lowering rates until they are actually negative, which has never happened before in recorded history.
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Friday, December 09, 2016
India's Stock Market: Nothing "Random" About It / Stock-Markets / India
See how beautifully India's 8-year long bull market follows a clear Elliott wave fractal pattern
Every day, the mainstream financial experts attempt to explain away fluctuations in stock market trends with some "fundamental factor" du jour, all of which boil down to this: good news causes a market to rise and bad news -- to fall.
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Friday, December 09, 2016
Stock Market What Can we Expect in December? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
SPX has closed above its daily Cycle Top at 2232.21 and met at least two Fibonacci targets at 2250.00 and 2255.00. It must close back beneath its Cycle Top to get a possible daily sell signal. Preferably Wave 1 should decline to or beneath last Friday’s low at 2187.44 before retesting the Cycle Top. The final challenge of the Cycle Top is the ideal short entry in this scenario.
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Friday, December 09, 2016
Will Trump Cause Geopolitical Chaos? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
Before the U.S. presidential election analysts pointed out that Trump's administration would be positive for the yellow metal, because of the elevated general uncertainty, possible geopolitical turmoil (due to trade wars or recalibration of foreign policy), slower economic growth (due to protectionism), as well as widened fiscal deficits and higher inflation (due to tax cuts and higher government spending).
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Friday, December 09, 2016
SPX Premarket is Higher, But No Stock Market Breakout / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
Good Morning!
The SPX Premarket has held steady all night. It is currently challenging the 2-hour Cycle Top at 2247.18, but no breakout has occurred.
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Friday, December 09, 2016
Global Market Perspective 3 Killer Charts, 2 Fast Looks at Politics / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
Global Market Perspective is Your Roadmap to Global Investment Opportunity
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Friday, December 09, 2016
SPX is back under its Cycle Top Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
The SPX structure appears to have morphed again. If you can find the structure, you can ascertain what the guidelines are.
The first is that A equals C at 2250.0. That doesn’t put a limit on it, but provides a guideline.
The second is that Wave [v] is 2.38 times [i] at 2251.91.
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Thursday, December 08, 2016
Ireland EU Exit? - Wealthbuilder Stock Market Brief December 2016 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
Irexit: Ireland may have to consider leaving the EU.
Since the Brexit vote this summer most national and international media outlets were focused on the American presidential election. However, one story that got lost in the Trump firestorm was the fact that it increasing looks like the Irish government will have to seriously contemplate leaving the EU should the terms of the British Brexit “divorce” be hard rather than soft.
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