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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 30, 2022

STOCK MARKET CRASH INDICATOR / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: Nadeem_Walayat

STOCK MARKET CRASH INDICATOR

It looks like my last article freighted a lot of patrons, which was not my intention for I already flagged that the risks of a market panic event have been increasingly long before the neural net signaled a 100%+ reading. It is what it is, an independant indicator which increases the probability for lower prices going forward hence I revised my stock market expectations lower as illustrate by the updated stock market trend forecast graph.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 30, 2022

Warren Buffetts $130 billion 2022 Investing Master Plan / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is sat on $130 billion of cash. Why? Waiting for the inevitable panic event? Then why didn't Berkshire Hathaway buy in March 2020?

No, Warren Buffett master plans is this -

When the markets starts to crash / roll over into a bear market the naked longs facing forced sales will seek out investors to buy them out of their positions else the the markets would face a cascade of forced panic selling and where would they look for that buyer of last resort who has advertised to all well in advance that they have a mountain of cash? Warren Buffett who will likely be able to pick up positions in his target stocks at deep discounts to market prices.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 30, 2022

Fed Comments Help To Settle Global Stock Market Expectations / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The recent Fed comments should have helped settle the global market expectations related to if and when the Fed will start raising rates and/or taking further steps to curb inflation trends. Additionally, the Fed has been telegraphing its intentions very clearly over the past few months, providing ample time for traders and investors to alter their approach to pending monetary tightening actions. Read the full Fed Statement here.

In my opinion, foreign markets are more likely to see increased risks and declining price trends for two reasons. First, at-risk nations/borrowers struggle to reduce debt levels. Second, foreign market traders/investors struggle to adapt to the transition away from speculative “growth” trends. I think the US Dollar may continue to show strength over the next 4+ months as the foreign traders pile into US economic strength while the Fed initiates their tightening actions. So it makes sense to me that global markets would recoil from Fed tightening while debt-heavy corporations/nations seek relief from rising debt obligations.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 30, 2022

Should Investors Fear Fed Interest Rate Hikes? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: MoneyMetals

The prospect of Federal Reserve rate hikes continues to rattle Wall Street and cloud the outlook for precious metals.

On Wednesday, the central bank strongly signaled it will raise its benchmark Fed funds rate for the first time in three years – likely at its March policy meeting.

Policymakers noted that inflation is running “well above” target and also claimed a “strong labor market” justifies a degree of monetary tightening.

"There's quite a bit of room to raise interests without threatening the labor market,” Fed chairman Jerome Powell said, adding, “wages are moving up at the highest pace they have in decades."

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, January 29, 2022

FED TAPER CON TRICK, Recession 2022 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Did you buy the panic? Or were you scared shitless by the clueless MSM and barely out of puberty youtube clowns into a state of paralysis, missed buying Microsoft for $282, or AMD for $101, Nvidia $226, even Google for $2512? My prospective buying levels mailed to patrons before last Monday's open...

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, January 29, 2022

M&As: Beware of This Major Sign of a Stock Market Top / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: EWI

Here's what often precedes "prolonged and devastating bear markets"

Inside the three publications that comprise Elliott Wave International's flagship Financial Forecast Service, Elliott Wave International recently documented the many expressions of "financial optimism." Things like crypto mania. Or meme stocks. Or just buying any stocks, all stocks, no matter if the companies that issued them are making money, losing it, or have yet to turn a profit.

And it's more than just the individual investors who are caught up in it. Among the other behaviors this widespread financial optimism leads to are corporate mergers and acquisitions.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, January 28, 2022

BREWING FINANCIAL CRISIS 2.0 Suggests RECESSION 2022 / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My last article featured an Inflationary indicator pointing to a recession 2022. That latest Inflation data out of the US (6.8%) reinforces what this indicator suggests i.e. US CP LIE inflation is now at it's highest since the early 1980's!.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, January 28, 2022

Stock Market Rushing Headlong / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

Glass half full call on S&P 500 yesterday was vindicated – this yet another reversal has the power to go on, and credit markets appear sniffing out the upcoming reprieve. While rates have justifiably risen, they have done so quite fast in Jan – time to calm down and reprice the excessively hawkish Fed fears. Even if it was just energy and financials that rose yesterday, the table is set for gains across many assets – just check the progress from yesterday‘s already optimistic upturn, or the already fine early view of yesterday‘s market internals.

VIX is calming down, Fed is unlikely to rock the boat too much – such were my yesterday‘s thoughts about:

(…) seeing a rebound on Wednesday‘s FOMC (I‘m leaning towards its message being positively received, and no rate hike now as that‘s apart from the Eastern Europe situation the other fear around).

The sizable open profits – whether in S&P 500 or crude oil – can keep on growing while gold slowly approaches $1,870 again (look for a good day today), and copper stabilizes above $4.50 to keep pushing higher even if not yet outperforming other commodities. More dry firepowder and fresh profits ahead anywhere I look – even cryptos are to enjoy the unfolding risk-on upswing.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, January 26, 2022

Is Everyone Going To Be Right About This Stocks Bear Market? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Avi_Gilburt

If I'm reading all these articles properly, it seems that we're approaching the end of the world as we know it. In fact, I'm reading expectations of 40%, 50% and even 80% market declines. While I did not receive my invitation to this party, it seems that almost everyone else has and they have chosen to attend.

But, is that how the market works?

When the market was hovering in the 4800SPX region, I reiterated to the members of ElliottWaveTrader.net my expectation that we will likely revisit the 4400SPX region before the market begins its next major rally phase. In fact, I even warned them that the certainty that a new bear market has begun will likely be ubiquitous by the time we strike 4400SPX.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, January 26, 2022

Stock Market Glass Half Empty or Half Full? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

Tough call as select S&P 500 sectors came back to life, but credit markets are a bit inconclusive. Some more selling today before seeing a rebound on Wednesday‘s FOMC (I‘m leaning towards its message being positively received, and no rate hike now as that‘s apart from the Eastern Europe situation the other fear around).

VIX looks to have topped yesterday, and coupled with the commodities and precious metals relative resilience (don‘t look at cryptos where I took sizable short profits in both Bitcoin and Ethereum yesterday), sends a signal of upcoming good couple of dozen points rebound in the S&P 500. Taking a correct view at the hightened, emotional market slide yesterday, is through the portfolio performance – as you can see via clicking the link, yesterday‘s setup needn‘t and shouldn‘t be anyone‘s make or break situation.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, January 26, 2022

Stock Market Quoted As Saying 'The Reports Of My Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated' / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Avi_Gilburt

I have been writing for Seeking Alpha for over a decade now, and I have also been running a service for investors for over a decade as well. And, I think I have seen it all.

One of the things that still strikes me is the extent to which investors will go to cling to their market perspectives no matter how much you try to explain to them how their old perspectives are not accurate or how much you attempt to open their eyes to new perspectives. You can present as much evidence as you want, you can provide as many examples as you want, yet there will still be a huge number of readers who are unwilling to accept anything beyond their own views. There are truly a lot of closed minds out there who simply love the way their blinders fit upon their eyes.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 25, 2022

AI Tech Stocks State Going into the CRASH and Capitalising on the Metaverse / Stock-Markets / Metaverse

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Caught off guard by the Stock Market Panic underway?

We'll you cannot say you weren't warned!

AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels, Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021

Amazon to the MOON 2021! Then what?

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 25, 2022

Stock Market Relief Rally, Maybe? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 closed below the 200-day moving average – unheard of. But similarly to the turn in credit markets on Wednesday, the bulls can surprise shortly as the differential between HYG and TLT with LQD is more pronounced now. The field is getting clear, the bulls can move – and shortly would whether or not we see the autumn lows tested next.

Now that my target of 4,400 has been reached (the journey to this support has been a more one-sided event than anticipated), 4,300 are next in the bears sight. The bearish voice and appetite is growing, which may call for a little caution in celebrating the downswings next. Relief rally is approaching, even if not immediately and visibly here yet. All I am waiting for, is a convincing turn in the credit markets, which we haven‘t seen yet.

The dollar is likely to waver in the medium-term, and that‘s what‘s helping the great and profitable moves in commodities, and reviving precious metals. Crypto short profits are likewise growing – the real question is when the tech slide would stop (getting closer), and how much would financials rebound as well. Not worried about energy – the oil dip would turn out a mere blip.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, January 22, 2022

CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The great valuation reset that I have been warning of for a good 6 months is taking place with a vengeance! As it's not a question of everyone waiting for the Fed act to raise rates because the market is already raising rates anyway and at their sharpest pace in over a year which punishes the high PE garbage growth stocks whilst rewarding low PE strong cash flow stocks.

Look at ARK GARBAGE STOCKS - NO EARNINGS, NO SALES, JUST SOME GARBAGE MANTRA of "DESRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY" THAT SPEWS OUT of CATHY WOOD from time to time! The only thing getting disrupted are the portfolios of all the poor souls who fell for her snake oil sales pitch!

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Stock-Markets

Friday, January 21, 2022

Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

2022 has gotten off to a great start with many of the target AI tech giants having taken a early year tumble to fresh swing lows that is failing to register in the general indices such as the Dow, and which acts as an harbinger of what to expect during a volatile 2022, whilst my stock market trend forecast will seek to map out the trend for Dow into the end of the year. However my primary focus is on accumulating AI tech stocks and thus my analysis also includes individual price targets for each of the AI tech stocks.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, January 19, 2022

WARNING - AI STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR SWITCH TRIGGERED! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

My Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator (CI18) has been triggered as of Fridays close with a reading of 103.4% where a reading of at least 100% equals SWITCHED ON for the first time since late Feb 2020 when it was triggered with a reading of 112%.

Contents:
What is the CI18?
CI18 Trigger Feb 2020
Existing Stock Market Trend Forecast
Stock Market VIX
Stock Market December Trend
OMICRON THE STRAW THAT BROKE THE CAMELS BACK!
MUTED SANTA RALLY
The Alibaba Stock Market
ARKK Garbage
Stocks Bear Market of 2022 May Have Started EARLY!
Facebook $301 Buying level achieved.
Recession 2022
Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio
Crypto FLASH CRASH Early Christmas Present

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, January 19, 2022

Crude Oil Smashing Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 didn‘t like latest weak data releases, but finished well off intraday lows. This reversal though leaves quite something to be desired – and it‘s sectoral composition doesn‘t pass the smell test entirely either. Yields continued to rise while HYG barely closed where it opened – that‘s not really risk-on. Cyclicals, and riskier parts of tech weren‘t visibly outperforming – the S&P 500 rally felt like a defensive bounce off some oversold levels.

That‘s why it won‘t likely hold for long – I don‘t think we have seen the end of selling – more downside awaits. It‘s still correction time, even if 2022 is likely to end up around 5,150 – we‘re still in a bull market, and Big Tech would do well. For now though, rising yields are putting pressure – and they would continue to rise. As liquidity would no longer be added by the Fed by Mar, the question remains how much would funds coming out of the repo facilities and the overnight account at the Fed (think $2t basically) offset the intended tightening.

Commodities aren‘t at all shaken, and Wednesday‘s positive copper move doesn‘t look to be an outlier – unlike Friday‘s decline that didn‘t correspond with other base metals. Even though it might be soothing to the pension funds, inflation rates aren‘t likely to come down to the usual massaged 2% during the next 2-3 years, no matter whether the Fed hikes by 0.25% 6 or 8 times. The persistently and unpleasantly 4-5% high CPI is likely to break the mainstream narrative, and stay with us for much longer than generally anticipated, which is only part of the reason why I am looking for gold to leave $1,870s very convincingly in the dust this year.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 18, 2022

Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

2022 has gotten off to a great start with many of the target AI tech giants having taken a early year tumble to fresh swing lows that is failing to register in the general indices such as the Dow, and which acts as an harbinger of what to expect during a volatile 2022, whilst my stock market trend forecast will seek to map out the trend for Dow into the end of the year. However my primary focus is on accumulating AI tech stocks and thus my analysis also includes individual price targets for each of the AI tech stocks.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 18, 2022

Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Avi_Gilburt

Those that read my analysis regularly know that I do not take general market fundamentals or news into account when I analyze the stock market. The main reason is that I view that which drives fundamentals as being the same as that which drives market price. However, the effects of that driver are seen in the stock market much faster than in the market fundamentals. That is why most people have adopted the adage that the stock market is a “leading indicator” for the economy. Yet, they do not understand why that is the case.

While I am not going to discuss why that is the case in this article, I am going to refer you to a previous article I have written, which explains the “why:”

How To Analyze Market Sentiment Along With Market Fundamentals

Interestingly, there are many who take serious umbrage with my perspective, to the point that they are personally insulted. I want to assure you that my perspective has been derived from many years of experience and research. So, it is not meant as a personal affront to any of you who read my articles. I am just trying to open your mind to something that is completely foreign to most investors.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 16, 2022

RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Just over a week ago EV stock Rivian IPO' d, a stock that virtually delivers nothing in terms of revenues is now valued at $110 billion! The company so far has delivered about 200 cars and their expectations are to deliver about 55,000 cars by the end of 2023.

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