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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Friday, March 13, 2020

Coronavirus Impact: Financial Markets Meltdown / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: Submissions

WHO declared coronavirus outbreak pandemic as confirmed cases top 124k globally. Meanwhile almost 4,600 are dead. Germany’s Merkel says 60-70% of population potentially at risk. Italy closes most stores. US has restricted non-essential travel from Europe.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 12, 2020

Is This A Bear Market When Stocks Crash 20% and Bonds Spike 30% / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

It is another blood bath in the markets with everything down, including TLT (bonds) and gold. Safe havens falling with stocks is not a good sign as people are not comfortable owning anything, even the safe havens, and this to me is a very bearish sign. 

Now, with that said, this is one day one of this type of price action and one day does not constitute a new trend or change the game, but if we start seeing more of this happen, we could be on the verge of the bear market we have all been expecting to show it ugly face.

The SP500 (SPY) is down 19.5% from the all-time high we saw just three weeks ago, and the general bias for most people is once the market is down 20% that is a new bear market. I can’t entirely agree with that general rule. Still, a lot of damage is happening to the charts. If price lingers down here or trades sideways for a few months I will see it as a new bear market consolidation before it heads lower, and we start what could be very deep market selloff and test 2100 on the SP500 index (SPY $210) for the next leg down looking forward several months.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 12, 2020

Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: EWI

Dear Reader,

Our friends at Elliott Wave International have been guiding investors through bull and bear markets since 1979. From that long experience, they know that at certain market junctures, they can help the most by giving everyone their latest analysis free.

Now is one of those market junctures.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 12, 2020

Markets, Mania, and Meltdown - a Brief Synopsis of the Past Month / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: Andy_Sutton

The past month has been one of nearly continuous turmoil in the financial markets”. That might well be the understatement of this still fairly new century. Keep in mind that during the past 20 years, we’ve had 2 significant recessions (according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis), a complete meltdown of the .com mania, the inflation of a real-estate bubble and its subsequent bursting, the halving of US financial indexes, and the bankruptcy of names like Lehman Brothers, and AIG to name a few. Throw in a massive bailout, a fusillade of rescue programs like TARP, TSLF and the resulting blowout of the federal reserve’s balance sheet. This is within the first 10 years. Keep that in mind.

The second ten years have featured D-E-B-T – on all levels. Governments of the world, states and provinces, local municipalities and parishes, students, consumers, homeowners. In short? Pretty much everyone. That debt has driven the economy for the past decade. Globally. Many will think this is just an American problem. It’s not. Misery loves company, right? Not so fast. In this brave new world of interlocking economies and financial systems, a failure on the other side of the world can cause problems in our own back yards.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, March 11, 2020

As Virus Stirs Panic, Financial Doomsday Scenario Looms – Are YOU Prepared? / Stock-Markets / Pandemic

By: Money_Metals

We appear to be entering the sort of scenario that doomsday preppers have been warning about for years. A pandemic is spreading death and panic around the world. Markets are crashing. Store shelves are emptying…

How long will it be before the economy grinds to a halt completely? How long will it be before the heavily leveraged financial system simply freezes up?

Emergency rate cuts by the Federal Reserve won’t necessarily keep the banks open. Central bankers won’t necessarily keep grocery stores supplied with food. And they won’t necessarily help you and your family survive the present crisis.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, March 11, 2020

Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market March and April 2020 Trend Forecast - Part1 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis continues from (How Deadly is the Coronavirus - Case Fatality Rate (CFR) Analysis) that seeks to conclude in a probable trend forecast for the unfolding Coronavirus stocks bear market that has caught most market participants by surprise, one where the formulaic mainstream financial press see's a bottom in EVERY BOUNCE! Well the Dow's latest plunge Friday makes a mockery of such expectations of barely a few trading days ago! For as I try and point out from time to time that technical analysis on it's own is NOT enough! Which is why I try and keep my antenna's focused on any outside market influencing factors that could drive stock prices at some point in the future where we have the usual drivers such as population growth, climate change, governments printing money that resulted in driving the Dow from a 1930's low of 40 to the recent high of 29,600. Without money printing there would be no exponential stocks bull market as the indices rotate in new rising corps and eject old dieing corps. Likewise, way back in January when most were shrugging their shoulders to "corona what?" my antenna was focused on what was taking place in Hubei China that was sending alarm bell rings despite art the time the Dow was was busy making a series of new all time highs.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, March 11, 2020

The Fed’s Baffling Response to the Coronavirus Explained / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: Ellen_Brown

When the World Health Organization announced on Feb. 24 that it was time to prepare for a global pandemic, the stock market plummeted. Over the following week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by more than 3,500 points, or 10%. In an attempt to contain the damage, the Federal Reserve on March 3 slashed the fed funds rate from 1.5% to 1.0%, in its first emergency rate move and biggest one-time cut since the 2008 financial crisis. But rather than reassuring investors, the move fueled another panic sell-off.

Exasperated commentators on CNBC wondered what the Fed was thinking. They said a half-point rate cut would not stop the spread of the coronavirus or fix the broken Chinese supply chains that are driving U.S. companies to the brink. A new report by corporate data analytics firm Dun & Bradstreet calculates that some 51,000 companies around the world have one or more direct suppliers in Wuhan, the epicenter of the virus. At least 5 million companies globally have one or more tier-two suppliers in the region, meaning that their suppliers get their supplies there; and 938 of the Fortune 1,000 companies have tier-one or tier-two suppliers there. Moreover, fully 80% of U.S. pharmaceuticals are made in China. A break in the supply chain can grind businesses to a halt.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, March 11, 2020

The DSI Says Gold and Bonds Are About to Tank / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Bob Moriarty of 321gold explains why he believes gold needs a correction.

In military aviation pilots are taught about an important concept called being on the Back Side of the Power Curve. For every aircraft and altitude there is a speed and power curve. Until the aircraft gets too slow things work just fine. A lot like the Fed. But when the aircraft flies too slow and drag gets too high, the addition of more power makes the situation worse. The aircraft stalls no matter how much power the pilot applies. A lot like the Fed.

On Tuesday the 3rd of March the Fed surprised the market with a 50 basis point drop in interest rates. The move was intended to reassure the market that the Fed had things under control. The market in turn surprised the Fed by doing the opposite of what those investing using the rear view mirror believed.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, March 10, 2020

Key Support Levels for the S&P 500, Dow and TSX / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Donald_W_Dony

The market sell-off continues to build as many investors believe more downside slippage is coming. Sells in mutual funds and individual stock portfolios, as reported, are reaching highs not seen since 2015.
Yet, many institutions are now positioning trades for the inevitable rebound.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) are showing a build-up of positions at certain key levels.

For the S&P 500, 2740 appears to be a mark where positions are being established. For the Dow, 23,500 and for the TSX,14,675 are being tested (Chart 1).

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, March 10, 2020

Before Stock Market Sell-Off, This Indicator Posted Its "Largest 1-Day Jump" in 10 Years / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: EWI

A revealing perspective on the stock market… and the "unexpected"

Most investors are surprised when a big trend turn occurs in the stock market.

A big reason why is because most market participants tend to linearly extrapolate the current trend into the future. Indeed, instead of getting cautious as a trend persists, they tend to do the opposite and ramp up their expectations. This applies during both down- and uptrends.

Let's first look at an example when the stock market had been in a major downtrend. As you'll recall, the market's last major bottom occurred in March 2009. The then bear market had been going on for 17 months.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, March 10, 2020

Fed's Real Mandate: Ever Expanding Asset Bubbles / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: Michael_Pento

Wall Street hit a new all-time high on February 20th. It was supposed to be smooth sailing from there, riding along the global liquidity wave. But then, that wave crashed into what turned out to be the fastest correction from a new high in the history of the US stock market. Even though the fall was mild in comparison to the record-breaking bull run of the past few years, it was enough to frighten central planners to the core. Hence, we had further confirmation on Tuesday, March 3rd of what we already knew: our central bank has been fully corrupted and co-opted by Wall Street.

The Fed lowered rates by 50bps in an emergency meeting, even though its regularly scheduled meeting was just two weeks away--maybe Trump will now give Powell the Presidential Medal of Freedom. But someone should have informed the White House and the Fed that the 4th rate cut in a rate-cutting cycle has nearly always led to market panics. But to be clear, the only reason the Fed cut rates is that the stock market suffered a brief correction. It wasn't a bear market or a recession. It wasn't even runaway deflation or an outright recession scare, …but just an 8% fall in stock prices from an all-time bubble high at the time of its decision.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 09, 2020

Is The Stocks Bull Market Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend: Uptrend from the 2009 low continues.

SPX Intermediate trend: Intermediate correction underway

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at anvi1962@cableone.net

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 09, 2020

A Battle Of Titans: The Coronavirus Versus The Fed / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: Dan_Amerman

There is a potential global tragedy that is unfolding in terms of the coronavirus epidemic, that may be on the verge of becoming a global pandemic. We simply don't know - nobody knows - at this stage what the eventual impact and number of mortalities will be in the United States and in the rest of the world.

What we do know is that the global supply chain is getting hit very hard. There are many economists who believe that we are potentially on the verge of what could be called a coronavirus recession where a shutdown of the supply out of China, ripples through shutdowns in Japan and South Korea (among many other nations), which combine to hit the US and European economies with a supply side shock.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 09, 2020

Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast Update - Part1 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis continues from (How Deadly is the Coronavirus - Case Fatality Rate (CFR) Analysis) that seeks to conclude in a probable trend forecast for the unfolding Coronavirus stocks bear market that has caught most market participants by surprise, one where the formulaic mainstream financial press see's a bottom in EVERY BOUNCE! Well the Dow's latest plunge Friday makes a mockery of such expectations of barely a few trading days ago! For as I try and point out from time to time that technical analysis on it's own is NOT enough! Which is why I try and keep my antenna's focused on any outside market influencing factors that could drive stock prices at some point in the future where we have the usual drivers such as population growth, climate change, governments printing money that resulted in driving the Dow from a 1930's low of 40 to the recent high of 29,600. Without money printing there would be no exponential stocks bull market as the indices rotate in new rising corps and eject old dieing corps. Likewise, way back in January when most were shrugging their shoulders to "corona what?" my antenna was focused on what was taking place in Hubei China that was sending alarm bell rings despite art the time the Dow was was busy making a series of new all time highs.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Monday, March 09, 2020

Market Fear Reaches A Level Seen Only 4 Times Since 2008 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Since 2009 the stock market has had for major waves of investor fear (volatility) take place which was in 2010, 2011, 2015, and 2018. Each time the market corrected we saw a drop anywhere from 12% – 18% and both traders and investors became emotional and started selling assets in fear of lower prices. What we are experiencing right now is the same sort of setup once again.

These waves of panic selling are a signature pattern of a mini-crash and they have similar outcomes each time which I will share with you here so you know what to expect and how to trade this rare market condition.

It takes a lot to convince the masses to reach this level of fear. Each of these mini-market crashes there has been some catalysts to further induce fear/selling. This time its Covid-19 that is tipping the scales.

Only two assets have acted as a safe haven which is bonds, and gold. Once again everyone has been piling into these over the past week, and even more so on Friday with Bonds surging 6.5% at one point during the session.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 09, 2020

Have We Seen The Peak In The Stock Market VIX? / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The recent price breakdown in the US stock market (near the end of February 2020) prompted a very big spike in the VIX – could we see another HUGE spike with a deeper price selloff in the near future?

Our researchers believe this first downside price rotation in the US stock market may be just the first downside move in what may become a “waterfall” price event where price declines in a series of downside price waves reaching an ultimate support level.  The way the VIX works is to attempt to normalize implied volatility based on available options call and put data over a 30-day span.  The process of normalizing this data attempt to eradicate outlier data from the equation.  Thus, a VIX level of 40 has likely resulted in completed data that attempts to eliminate outlier data points that may have resulted in a much higher VIX value.

After this recent rally in the VIX level, the current normalization process will likely take the current range of the VIX (options data) into consideration for future VIX levels.  Thus, in order for the VIX to reach levels above 40 again, a much bigger downside price move would have to take place – possibly pushing the SPY to levels near $260 or lower.  A move like this would have to happen in an aggressive type of price decline in order for the VIX to rally back above 40.  Is this something we should expect in the near future?

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 08, 2020

Dow Stock Market Crash Watch / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: readtheticker

This is now on the table. Let us review three prior Dow volatility shocks. But first let us remind you of the Sabbatical Cycle (previous post Shemitah Study)  Re post of the 7 year cycle chart below. Take 2015 add on 7 equals 2022, which suggests if a bear market does a occur a low maybe found in 2022. In 2015 we had a 12% sell off just prior to the 2016 US elections. 

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, March 07, 2020

Markets Ignore FED Rate Cut: SPX Could Break 2600 with Force / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Mehabe

Dow Jones closes down almost 800 points, as investors worried the Fed's emergency cut won’t be enough to combat the economic impact of the coronavirus. US 10y yield drops <1% for first time.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, March 06, 2020

US Fed Panics – Stock Market Predictive Modeling Shows You What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

March 3, 2020: the US Fed issued an emergency rate cut of 0.50% to move rates to levels near 1.0% as a result of global economic concerns related to the spread of the Coronavirus and the potential damage it may do to the global major economies.  President Trump had been suggesting the US Fed needed to be ahead of the risks associated with future market expectations to allow for increased liquidity and global economic function.  Yet, we believe this move by the US Fed came at the wrong time for most investors and traders.

The global markets had already begun a process of revaluing risk in the markets near the end of February 2020.  After the Q1 earnings data was digested and the newest Chinese data became available, investors suddenly understood the risks that we had been warning about for most of January and February.  Suddenly, the US markets collapsed and traders were revaluing forward expectations.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 05, 2020

Fed Coronavirus Reaction Was Not What Most Expected / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: Avi_Gilburt

Early Tuesday morning, I put out an update to our members of ElliottWaveTrader.net that noted that the 3135 region as the top of our resistance region, which can point us lower once struck.

Now, we all know that the “surprise” rate cut by the Fed should have been viewed as a positive to the market. In fact, most expected the Fed to act soon, and were certain how this would send the market soaring again.

However, I continue to reiterate that when the market is in a positive sentiment trend, the Fed action will always be viewed as positive. Yet, when the market is in a negative sentiment trend, the Fed will not likely be able to stem the tide of negative sentiment. They simply cannot change the sentiment of the market, despite the common misconception to the contrary.

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