Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Thursday, December 24, 2015

Stocks in Interest Rate Hike Cycles / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Zeal_LLC

The stock-market outlook in 2016 is riddled with great uncertainty following the Fed ending its 7-year-old zero-interest-rate policy.  With the first rate-hike cycle in nearly a decade just getting underway, traders are anxiously wondering how it will impact the stock markets.  While raising rates out of ZIRP is radically unprecedented, stock-market reactions during past rate-hike cycles still offer some interesting insights.

The Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy decisions are no longer peripheral concerns for stock-market fortunes.  Thanks to the Fed’s extreme easing of recent years, its actions have usurped everything else to become the stock markets’ overwhelmingly dominant driver.  And unfortunately the wildly-outsized upside impact on stock prices by the uber-dovish Fed is highly likely to portend proportional downside.

Thursday, December 24, 2015

Stock Market End of Year Winning Trade Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Yesterday December 23rd we closed out a nice winning trade in XLE energy sector. If you have not yet closed the trade can should do so today and will locking an even larger gain of 4-5% return in only three days.

The stock market closes early today at 1 pm ET. Today volume will be light and its not worth sitting around watching or trying to trade in my opinion. The best trade for today is to spend quality time with your family and friends.

Thursday, December 24, 2015

S&P 500 Clears Huge Moving-Average Resistance... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

So what do we make of today's move above two critical, exponential moving averages on the S&P 500. Price talks. Emotion gets in the way. Play what you see. So today we see that the S&P 500 has made the move above those critical moving averages, but we saw this a week back and then the market collapsed right back down. A head fake. Is this head fake number two? Only time will tell. The oscillators are strong on this particular move, so other than short-term overbought, it should try to hang in there better this time. Should is the key word, if we can unwind overbought without too much price erosion that would be a good thing for the bulls to hang their collective bullishness on. How any stock or index pulls back from overbought can be just as if not more important in how it goes higher. If the oscillators pull back to the near neutral zone and price holds this gap up that would be bad news for the bears. You only know when it's occurring, but the move today does seem better than last week's attempt to clear those moving averages due to better looking oscillators.

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Stock Market Risk On? Risk Off? Find Out Where Your Money Lies / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: EWI

A peek at the new free report from the editors of our Financial Forecast Service

It's almost Christmas, "the hap-happiest season of all." Yet, here's a sobering fact for U.S. investors: S&P 500 stocks are actually lower now than at the end of last year (chart: Google Finance):

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Stock Market SPX Being Repelled by Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX challenged its trio of resistances this afternoon. The Intermediate-term was the last to be challenged at 2064.18. The 50-day was at 2063.14 and the 200-day (not shown) is at 2061.50. A decline beneath that final level appears to have put SPX back on a sell signal.

SPX has now reached breakeven with the December 31. 2014 close at 2058.90. What comes next?

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Stock Market Breadth-less, Volume-less Rally May be Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The SPX Premarket appears to be marginally higher than yesterday’s print high. Whether today’s opening and subsequent prices stay beneath yesterday’s high remain to be seen.

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

COT Report in the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Submissions

Sasafuturestrading writes: The COT report is issued on Thursday evenings by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.  What it does is break down the amount of buying and selling done by three groups: Commercials, Large Traders, and Small Traders.

The largest powers in the marketplace are the Commercials.  These are the large users and producers of the commodity.  They do not use the commodity markets to speculate or directly make money in the markets. They are producers and users of the commodity, so they sell forward or hedge their production/demand. They use the markets for selling and delivery, not speculating.

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

SPX May be Turniing at the 50% Retracement Level / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

I am remiss in not bringing up the Orthodox Broadening Top trendline as a potential target for this retracement. It appears that SPX may have just turned at 2042.74 while the exact location of the trendline is at 2041.61. The 50% retracement point is 2041.57. While I did mention the 50% level this morning, I had not recently calculated the position of the trendline. Now that I have located it properly in the chart, you can see how many times (at least 5) it has provided support in the past month. Today it finally appears to act as resistance.

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Is The BBC Global 30 Index Signalling a Stock Market Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Sol_Palha

"A wise man is he who does not grieve for the thing which he has not, but rejoices for those which he has." ~ Epictetus

Much the same way many experts felt that the NYSE was issuing a series of death signals, there are just as many who share the same sentiment towards the signals the Global BBC 30 Index is supposedly issuing. This index is thought to provide a more accurate reflection of what is going on in the markets as it is based on the economic data of 30 of the world's largest companies. In today's world where manipulation is the order of the day, over-reliance on such an index might not be the most prudent of actions. It has, however, confirmed that volatility levels have surged to the moon, but of course, we already knew this would occur as this was predicted well in advance by the Market volatility indicator (V-indicator).

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Stock Market Retracement Not Yet Complete / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Sol_Palha

SPX appears to need one more probe higher to 2033.00 – 2035.00. Of note is that the Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% is at 2033.27, so this retracement appears to be quite muted, compared to earlier ones. Of course, it may go higher, so the 50% retracement is at 2041.57, just in case...

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Stock Market Reversal Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

SPX appears to have completed an impulse from its Thursday morning high. The correction, which is nearly complete, appears to be a flat one, indicating a further decline ahead. Today is a Pivot day, suggesting a reversal may be about to take place.

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Stock Market 1993 Or Bust..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

We can spend forever talking about what the market will do. Will it break down or will it break out. What will be the catalyst, or will it not, and so on. Here is the bottom line folks. Until the bears can take away 1993 on the closing basis with a bit of force, the trend remains basically trend less, with a bullish bias, meaning just meandering. But the bears are unable to take control. Control is different than meandering. Since we're still in a bull market, to me, meandering within it is not bearish. It's only bearish when a critical level of support is removed in a fashion that suggests much lower prices. We have yet to see that on any level. We get that if we can push some volume in to a break down below 1993. To be completely blunt, losing 1993 on light volume would likely lead to a head fake down. When a market breaks one way or the other away from a trend that was in place prior, big money usually lets you know it's occurring.

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Stock Market Headed Higher because more Americans drink Coffee than own Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Sol_Palha

More Americans drink coffee than invest in the markets and yet many of these individuals are stunned that the market is going higher when good jobs are not as easy to find, rents and cost of everyday necessities keep rising.  61% of Americans drink coffee on a daily basis compared to the only 48% that invest in the markets. These stunning facts were published in a  recent article; the article states that if the $1200 that the average American spends on coffee were invested in the market in 2009, it would have grown to $3600.

Monday, December 21, 2015

Stock Market Positive Expectations Following Last Week's Sell-off, But Will It Last? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Our intraday outlook is now neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

Monday, December 21, 2015

Stock Market's Wild Swings May Continue into the New Year / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Brad_Gudgeon

I just need to start off saying that due to the Holidays, this update will not include charts. Happy Holidays to everyone!

Two weeks ago, I had been expecting a stock market low around the New Moon at the Sagittarius/Capricorn cusp due December 14th when the Sun squares Jupiter near the Bradley turn of December 11. I also was expecting a rally into mid week and then possible further weakness into week's end, which we got. We are now falling into the moon at the Aries/Taurus cusp, which often times is a market low when the stock market falls through the moon at the Sagittarius- Capricorn cusp. We are also at a Bradley turn when Mercury squares Uranus (which turns stationary direct Christmas Day on the full moon).

Sunday, December 20, 2015

Stock Market Failed Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Still Bull Market?

SPX: Intermediate trend – The index appears to have made a secondary top at the 2104 level and to have started another decline of intermediate duration.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Sunday, December 20, 2015

Fed Might Have Nailed End of Cyclical Stocks Bull Market, Beginning of Next US Recession / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Jas_Jain

On April 5, 2015 I suggested that One of the Longest Cyclical Bull Market In US Stocks May be Coming to an End with an update on August 16, 2015. Now, it seems that Janet Yellen has nailed the end of the cyclical bull market with her telegraphing the specific date for change in policy and then acting on it. Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fisher's statement, few months ago, that the Fed is data dependent and not date dependent (emphasis in his voice) was part of Fed propaganda to cover up the real reasons behind the change in policy. If the cyclical bull market were coming to an end, as Yellen has concluded, and the bear market is to begin in early 2016 the recession would follow. As one can see in Fig. 1, S&P 500 is where it was approximately 16 months ago and the market has been struggling.

Friday, December 18, 2015

Stock Market Flash Crash Time? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

This is getting uncomfortably close to a meltdown, despite the late hour. If it continues to decline into the close, options sellers will be caught wrong-footed and will have to continue to sell on Monday.

Flash Crash time?

Friday, December 18, 2015

Stock Market Figures Out Fed No Longer Has Its Back / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: John_Rubino

US stocks soared while the Fed was meeting to raise interest rates this week — though it’s not clear why that should be so since monetary tightening isn’t generally a good thing for stock prices.

In any event, it didn’t last. Over the past 48 hours the Dow is down more than 3%, with many, many individual stocks down far more.

Friday, December 18, 2015

Is the Stock Market "Courting Catastrophe?" / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

On the surface, it seems like a “normal” trading day in the SPX.  It is not.  The chart gives it away by showing the daily volume already at the to of its daily range and it’s not yet 1:00 pm.

Back in 2006 I had the privilege of talking with Andrew Smithers, who was part of the investigation team to determine what caused the Crash in 1987.  He had been interviewed by Barrons Magazine in a now famous article entitled, “Courting Catastrophe.”