Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Stock Market Breadth-less, Volume-less Rally May be Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The SPX Premarket appears to be marginally higher than yesterday’s print high. Whether today’s opening and subsequent prices stay beneath yesterday’s high remain to be seen.

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

COT Report in the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Submissions

Sasafuturestrading writes: The COT report is issued on Thursday evenings by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.  What it does is break down the amount of buying and selling done by three groups: Commercials, Large Traders, and Small Traders.

The largest powers in the marketplace are the Commercials.  These are the large users and producers of the commodity.  They do not use the commodity markets to speculate or directly make money in the markets. They are producers and users of the commodity, so they sell forward or hedge their production/demand. They use the markets for selling and delivery, not speculating.

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

SPX May be Turniing at the 50% Retracement Level / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

I am remiss in not bringing up the Orthodox Broadening Top trendline as a potential target for this retracement. It appears that SPX may have just turned at 2042.74 while the exact location of the trendline is at 2041.61. The 50% retracement point is 2041.57. While I did mention the 50% level this morning, I had not recently calculated the position of the trendline. Now that I have located it properly in the chart, you can see how many times (at least 5) it has provided support in the past month. Today it finally appears to act as resistance.

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Is The BBC Global 30 Index Signalling a Stock Market Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Sol_Palha

"A wise man is he who does not grieve for the thing which he has not, but rejoices for those which he has." ~ Epictetus

Much the same way many experts felt that the NYSE was issuing a series of death signals, there are just as many who share the same sentiment towards the signals the Global BBC 30 Index is supposedly issuing. This index is thought to provide a more accurate reflection of what is going on in the markets as it is based on the economic data of 30 of the world's largest companies. In today's world where manipulation is the order of the day, over-reliance on such an index might not be the most prudent of actions. It has, however, confirmed that volatility levels have surged to the moon, but of course, we already knew this would occur as this was predicted well in advance by the Market volatility indicator (V-indicator).

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Stock Market Retracement Not Yet Complete / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Sol_Palha

SPX appears to need one more probe higher to 2033.00 – 2035.00. Of note is that the Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% is at 2033.27, so this retracement appears to be quite muted, compared to earlier ones. Of course, it may go higher, so the 50% retracement is at 2041.57, just in case...

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Stock Market Reversal Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

SPX appears to have completed an impulse from its Thursday morning high. The correction, which is nearly complete, appears to be a flat one, indicating a further decline ahead. Today is a Pivot day, suggesting a reversal may be about to take place.

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Stock Market 1993 Or Bust..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

We can spend forever talking about what the market will do. Will it break down or will it break out. What will be the catalyst, or will it not, and so on. Here is the bottom line folks. Until the bears can take away 1993 on the closing basis with a bit of force, the trend remains basically trend less, with a bullish bias, meaning just meandering. But the bears are unable to take control. Control is different than meandering. Since we're still in a bull market, to me, meandering within it is not bearish. It's only bearish when a critical level of support is removed in a fashion that suggests much lower prices. We have yet to see that on any level. We get that if we can push some volume in to a break down below 1993. To be completely blunt, losing 1993 on light volume would likely lead to a head fake down. When a market breaks one way or the other away from a trend that was in place prior, big money usually lets you know it's occurring.

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Stock Market Headed Higher because more Americans drink Coffee than own Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Sol_Palha

More Americans drink coffee than invest in the markets and yet many of these individuals are stunned that the market is going higher when good jobs are not as easy to find, rents and cost of everyday necessities keep rising.  61% of Americans drink coffee on a daily basis compared to the only 48% that invest in the markets. These stunning facts were published in a  recent article; the article states that if the $1200 that the average American spends on coffee were invested in the market in 2009, it would have grown to $3600.

Monday, December 21, 2015

Stock Market Positive Expectations Following Last Week's Sell-off, But Will It Last? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Our intraday outlook is now neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

Monday, December 21, 2015

Stock Market's Wild Swings May Continue into the New Year / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Brad_Gudgeon

I just need to start off saying that due to the Holidays, this update will not include charts. Happy Holidays to everyone!

Two weeks ago, I had been expecting a stock market low around the New Moon at the Sagittarius/Capricorn cusp due December 14th when the Sun squares Jupiter near the Bradley turn of December 11. I also was expecting a rally into mid week and then possible further weakness into week's end, which we got. We are now falling into the moon at the Aries/Taurus cusp, which often times is a market low when the stock market falls through the moon at the Sagittarius- Capricorn cusp. We are also at a Bradley turn when Mercury squares Uranus (which turns stationary direct Christmas Day on the full moon).

Sunday, December 20, 2015

Stock Market Failed Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Still Bull Market?

SPX: Intermediate trend – The index appears to have made a secondary top at the 2104 level and to have started another decline of intermediate duration.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Sunday, December 20, 2015

Fed Might Have Nailed End of Cyclical Stocks Bull Market, Beginning of Next US Recession / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Jas_Jain

On April 5, 2015 I suggested that One of the Longest Cyclical Bull Market In US Stocks May be Coming to an End with an update on August 16, 2015. Now, it seems that Janet Yellen has nailed the end of the cyclical bull market with her telegraphing the specific date for change in policy and then acting on it. Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fisher's statement, few months ago, that the Fed is data dependent and not date dependent (emphasis in his voice) was part of Fed propaganda to cover up the real reasons behind the change in policy. If the cyclical bull market were coming to an end, as Yellen has concluded, and the bear market is to begin in early 2016 the recession would follow. As one can see in Fig. 1, S&P 500 is where it was approximately 16 months ago and the market has been struggling.

Friday, December 18, 2015

Stock Market Flash Crash Time? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

This is getting uncomfortably close to a meltdown, despite the late hour. If it continues to decline into the close, options sellers will be caught wrong-footed and will have to continue to sell on Monday.

Flash Crash time?

Friday, December 18, 2015

Stock Market Figures Out Fed No Longer Has Its Back / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: John_Rubino

US stocks soared while the Fed was meeting to raise interest rates this week — though it’s not clear why that should be so since monetary tightening isn’t generally a good thing for stock prices.

In any event, it didn’t last. Over the past 48 hours the Dow is down more than 3%, with many, many individual stocks down far more.

Friday, December 18, 2015

Is the Stock Market "Courting Catastrophe?" / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

On the surface, it seems like a “normal” trading day in the SPX.  It is not.  The chart gives it away by showing the daily volume already at the to of its daily range and it’s not yet 1:00 pm.

Back in 2006 I had the privilege of talking with Andrew Smithers, who was part of the investigation team to determine what caused the Crash in 1987.  He had been interviewed by Barrons Magazine in a now famous article entitled, “Courting Catastrophe.” 

Friday, December 18, 2015

Post ZIRP Stock Market and Gold Era / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Zeal_LLC

The Federal Reserve finally mustered the courage to end its radical zero-interest-rate-policy experiment this week.  Its quarter-point rate hike announced on the seventh anniversary of ZIRP kicks off the long road to normalization.  This leaves the stock markets and gold in unprecedented uncharted territory.  The Fed has never before attempted to exit ZIRP, let alone in the midst of such extremely distorted markets.

The Fed’s ZIRP saga symmetrically ended 7 years to the day after it began way back in mid-December 2008.  That was just after the dark heart of that year’s once-in-a-century stock panic, which struck terror into the Bernanke Fed.  The benchmark S&P 500 broad-market stock index (SPX) had plummeted 30.0% in a single month in October, and then plunged another 11.4% from those brutal lows in the subsequent month.

Friday, December 18, 2015

Stock Market Something Strange is Going On / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

It appears that the data feed to all the websites from the stock exchanges is having issues. StockCharts, Bloomberg and ForexPros appear to be in limbo. As far as I can tell, this is accurate, but who knows what goes on when the system is “off?”

This may be a way to discourage trades, since one can hardly know if he/she is getting an accurate quote. There is no report from ZeroHedge on this issue, which I find strange.

Friday, December 18, 2015

SPX Defending 2000 Today / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

I spent some time reviewing my Cycles chart to verify its accuracy. You may recall that I had suggested about two weeks ago that December 9 would be the “ideal day” for a Master Cycle low (258 days). Instead, it may have fallen on Monday, December 14, at 11:39 am. You might say that it was 4.3 calendar days from the average length of time, on day 263. I don’t have the exact figure any more, but I had done a study that showed that over 90% of all Cycle bottoms happen within 4.3 days of their normal date.

Friday, December 18, 2015

The Fed Rate Hike Will Trigger a $9 Trillion Financial Markets Meltdown / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Graham_Summers

Yesterday, the Fed has hiked interest rates from 0.25% to 0.5%.

It is the first rate hike in 10 years. And it is now clear that the Fed is not only behind the ball in terms of raising rates… but that it has now primed the financial system for another 2008-type meltdown.

By way of background we need to consider the relationship between the US Dollar and the Euro.

Thursday, December 17, 2015

SPX Breaks a Trifecta of Supports / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX has declined beneath its 200-day at 2062.12, its 50-day at 2061.90 and its mid-Cycle support at 2060.98. In case you have been stopped out, this is a confirmed sell signal. We may see a very fast, deep decline, so stay on the alert and stay short.