Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Sunday, June 27, 2021

Market Bubbles Galore / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble

By: MoneyMetals

Is the entire financial system currently in a massive bubble? That is the question that astute investors may now be asking.

According to Nouriel Roubini, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates and professor at NYU Stern School of Business, now is the time to be overweight gold as more bubbles pop up.

Stocks, bonds, crypto, tech, real estate, whatever sector you want to focus on – these all appear to now be building into or rapidly falling from bubble territory.

The higher these markets do ascend, the greater the eventual fall may be.

Friday, June 25, 2021

Are The US Major Stock Market Indexes Rolling Over In An Excess Phase Peak Setup? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recently, I published a research article on Bitcoin suggesting there may be a bigger downside price move setting up – breaking support near $30k and extending the Excess Phase Peak pattern that we warned about back in November 2020.  Today, my team and I wanted to alert you that the recent price rotation in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Transportation Index COULD setup in an early stage (Phase #2) peaking formation similar to what started the recent down trend in Bitcoin.

The setup of the Excess Phase peak pattern consists of an exuberant rally to a peak (Phase #1), followed by a moderate price correction that sets up into a sideways flagging pattern (Phase #2).  If the INDU and TRAN continue to move in a sideways flagging formation after recently move moderately lower, we may start to see a new Excess Phase Peak setup in these two major indexes. This could be a warning of a much bigger breakdown in trend in the near future.

Thursday, June 24, 2021

"Everybody's Getting Rich (and Having Fun) Except Me" / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: EWI

The idea of "missing out" on stock market gains "literally generates fear in many people"

Hardly anyone wants to miss the party -- whether on Wall Street or elsewhere.

Thus, the acronym FOMO -- which stands for the "fear of missing out" -- is in vogue. After a 12-years long bull market, the acronym has appeared in many financial articles.

Yet, the acronym was coined years before the current bull market.

Wednesday, June 23, 2021

Stock Market Calling the Fed‘s Bluff / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 risk-on trading yesterday confirmed that it would have indeed been too early to write off value stocks. Financials, energy sprang higher, accompanied by the as of late usual tech suspect – the heavyweights though merely defended gained ground. Coupled with the credit market perspectives, it was a clear risk-on day as evidenced by the VIX and put/call ratio. The markets have turned on a dime, ignoring the Fed messaging of prior week as shown in the surging CRB index, reversing dollar and Treasuries:

(…) Given the ease with which precious metals and then select commodities such as copper or soybeans tumbled, rate hikes might appear to be baked in the cake now – but in reality, it‘s the unyielding inflation that would prove rather persistent than transitory.

The Fed did the bare minimum, acknowledging inflation in passing, implying it would go away on its own. But it‘s more complicated than that – bank credit creation isn‘t strong, and had been declining before bond yields bottomed in Aug 2020. Are banks reluctant to lend, or customers to borrow? The result of production not ramping up as wildly as expected (reopening trades) is compounding the disturbed supply chains and commodity prices rising (cost-push inflation). Add to that job market pressures, and you have a recipe for inflation being more transitory than originally thought. In other words, cyclical and structural as import-export prices hint at too.

Tuesday, June 22, 2021

Stock Market Correction Starting / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over and it ends.  A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX Fell short of its base projection and turned down from 4257

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Friday, June 18, 2021

Has the Dust Settled After Fed Day? Not Just Yet. / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Mike_Paulenoff

I am going to look at a few markets (ES, Gold, DXY) that have reacted significantly to the Fed's "message" from yesterday afternoon. What's the message? Here's my synopsis:
After pumping $8 trillion into the economy since March 2020 to provide the necessary stimulus to emerge from the pandemic lockdown, growth is relatively strong, inflation is finally above our 2% benchmark-- though probably will prove to be a transient blip, but the labor market remains well-below Full Employment... So we think we might need to raise the Fed funds rate a measly 25 basis points at the end of 2022, and maybe another measly 25 basis points at the beginning of 2023. In the interim, nothing really will change.

If my synopsis of what the Fed said yesterday (remember, they didn't DO anything) is reasonably on point, then we see a host of previously one-way markets reacting to "the news" with counter-trend moves that should prove to be a healthy refresher of their still powerful dominant trends.

Friday, June 18, 2021

AI Stock Buying Levels, Ratings, Valuations Video / Stock-Markets / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Here is my updated AI stocks table with buying levels to capitalise upon during the anticipated stock market correction. In terms of overall valuations the portfolio is a little more expensive today than at my last update with some individual stocks very overbought so should be primed for a correction during May as I first flagged to expect in my analysis of 9th of Feb.

Thursday, June 17, 2021

AI Stock Buying Levels, Ratings, Valuations and Trend Analysis into Market Correction / Stock-Markets / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is part 3 of my recent extensive analysis focused on updated buying levels for my AI tech stocks portfolio going into the summer stock market correction, of what I will be looking to accumulate at what price levels.

Part 1 covered Tesla, ARK Funds and more - TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS!

Part 2 covered The Top 5 AI stocks trend analysis - Top 5 AI Tech Stocks Trend Analysis, Buying Levels, Ratings and Valuations

Whilst the whole of this extensive analysis AI Stock Buying Levels, Ratings, Valuations and Trend Analysis into Market Correction was first been made available to Patrons who support my work.

Contents:

• TESLA
• Cathy Wood ARK Funds CRASH!
• India Apocalypse Heralds Catastrophe for Pakistan and Bangladesh
• Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019!
• Stock Market Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast
• Stocks Expensive or Cheap Indicator (EC)
• AI Stock Buy % Rating Review
• 1. GOOGLE - $2398
• 2. AMAZON - $3312
• 3. MICROSOFT - $252.5
• 4. APPLE - $130
• 5. FACEBOOK - $320
• 6. NVIDIA - $592.5
• 7. AMD - $78.8
• 11. IBM - $145.5
• 12. INTEL - $57.7
• AI Stocks Buying Levels Update May 2021
• So what am I going to do
• GPU Mining FREE MONEY!
• CHIA Crypto Farming with Your Hard Drives Insanity!

Thursday, June 17, 2021

Stocks, Gold, Silver Markets Inflation Tipping Point / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 hasn‘t extended Monday‘s gains, continuing to trade in a cautious, tight range. Not that it would be driven by Treasury yields that much on a daily basis – the tech breather was one day delayed, but still didn‘t erase Monday‘s gains in full. Yes, Nasdaq didn‘t reverse, and I‘m looking for it to reassert its strength in spite of having approached the rising resistance line connecting the Feb and Apr highs.

Sure, a little rotation later today wouldn‘t be unimaginable as I am looking for the Fed to largely bypass bringing up taper, which would mean continued ostrich pose when faced with rising inflation (did you see yesterday‘s PPI beating expectations? Another confirmation of my Monday‘s points of inflation being baked in the cake, and in spite of all the transitory rhetoric, working its way through the system as reliably as water through Titanic‘s compartments. The coming Fed disappointment in doing the right thing (fighting inflation even as late as it is now before the expectations become obviously unanchored, eventually turning velocity of money around).

Let‘s check my Monday‘s assumptions and where we stand in the run up to today‘s FOMC:

(…) Paring the bets is getting underway before this week‘s FOMC – the Fed is perceived to perhaps want to at least start debating taper, if not present the sketch of its seriously watered down shape. They‘ll make taper hints and noises at most, it would be much ado about nothing – the markets are just getting spooked now, most notably the dollar (having risen on the unreasonable expectation something palpable and material would come out of that – but remember, talk is cheap, and Jackson Hole is the more likely venue and time that would happen, with 2022 most probably being the year of taper).

The yields reprieve … I see lasting through the summer. Autumn, that would be another cup of tea – apart from the unyielding $CRB index, rising oil prices affecting sectors beyond transportation, and the job market heating up (hiring difficulties), the serene period in Treasuries would be over. Yes, that means I think the bond markets have it wrong with their sudden appreciation, and that equities and commodities are right not to tumble.

Wednesday, June 16, 2021

Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Inflation Is For Fools / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

I asked you in my last article if you were more concerned with name calling than with profiting from the market. So, I was wondering if you gave it any more thought, and if you had come to a conclusion?

If not, well, let's discuss this a bit further.

Everyone today is so concerned about "inflation." Yet, everyone seems to be arguing as to whether we are experiencing inflation today. Some claim that this is true inflation, whereas others claim that it is simply transitory.

My personal opinion resides on the transitory spectrum of this issue, and I believe that over the next 6-12 months we will see the shortages easing, especially in the labor force, as we stop paying people to stay at home. But to be honest, I don't care whether my opinion is right or wrong on this issue, as it does not help me make money in the stock market.

Tuesday, June 15, 2021

Inflation and Stock Market SPX Record Highs. PPI, FOMC Meeting in Focus / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Paul_Rejczak

Everyone (and I mean everyone) has been talking about inflation. We finally got the CPI print on Thursday: 0.6% vs. 0.4% expected! The S&P 500 didn’t seem to care, though. Record highs! What’s next?

Inflation is real, folks. Two monthly prints in a row now, with the most recent June print showing the largest increases in used cars/trucks, transportation services, fuel oil, and apparel. Initially, the CPI data release was sold in futures trading at 8:30 AM on Thursday, but price action quickly reversed to the upside. This price action stuck out to me. Markets do not always react as expected when data releases come out. In a bull market like this, sometimes the data doesn’t matter. This price action tells us a story.

Tuesday, June 15, 2021

Stock Market SPX 4310 Right Around the Corner! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over and it ends.  A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX is approaching its intermediate top projection of ~4310.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Monday, June 14, 2021

More Banks & Investors Are NOT Believing Fed Propaganda / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: MoneyMetals

As inflation continues to heat up, gold and silver markets are once again on the verge of breaking out.

On Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released much-anticipated Consumer Price Index data. The CPI came in at a full 5.0% year over year through May. 

The so-called “core” rate, which excludes food and energy, showed an annual increase of 3.8%. That represents the biggest jump since all the way back in 1992.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials continue to downplay the inflation threat. They insist the recent surge is transitory and doesn’t reflect a major trend to come.

But as Denver’s local 9NEWS reported, not all economists are echoing the Fed’s messaging on inflation.

Monday, June 14, 2021

Market Inflation Bets – Squaring or Not / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 shook off another record making inflation reading, and bond markets couldn‘t be happier. Volatility is back down, but the option traders turned cautious – that‘s fodder for the next upswing eventually. Many signs are pointing towards it – emerging markets rising with the dollar on the defensive, for example. Yes, the dollar with yields are key to watch now.

S&P 500 was led higher by Nasdaq, which more than welcomed further retreat in yields. The tech led rally is here, and value while not down and out, is taking a breather. Especially financials don‘t like the move in yields, and we aren‘t at the 1.40% mark on 10-year Treasury bond yet. The summer lull in bonds is here, and my views on inflation getting permanently elevated, Fed‘s taper plays, bond yields retreat, inflation rearing its ugly head later this year before a growth scare strikes, can be found in the Latest Highlights and this week‘s articles amply discussed.

So, stocks don‘t look like retreating, as the bond market momentum doesn‘t favor much downside, and tech would likely overpower that.

Let‘s briefly check the reactions of other markets to yesterday‘s well telegraphed CPI springboard theme in stocks and precious metals.

Monday, June 14, 2021

The FED Holds the Market. How Long Will It Last? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

With investors discrediting fundamentals to follow the FED’s instruction, it seems everything relies now on a few people’s say-so.

It's a Bird, It's a Plane, It's the FED

With Jerome Powell, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED), donning his cape like Superman and his monetary crew akin to The Avengers, investors’ faith in the FED was on full display on Jun. 10. Case in point: with the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) surging by 4.93% year-over-year (YoY) – the highest YoY percentage increase since 2008 – the bond, stock and currency markets barely flinched.

The commodity PPI surged by 17.25% YoY in April. And if you exclude the 17.36% YoY jump in July 2008, it was the largest YoY percentage increase since December 1974. For context, the commodity PPI often leads the headline CPI and that’s why tracking the former’s movement is so important. Moreover,  reconnecting with the green line implies a ~5.50% YoY percentage increase in the headline CPI.

Wednesday, June 09, 2021

SELL USDT Tether Before Ponzi Scheme Implodes Triggering 90% Bitcoin CRASH in Cryptos Lehman Bros / Stock-Markets / cryptocurrency

By: Nadeem_Walayat

USDT Tether! The crypto equovalent of Lehman bros, everythings fine until this ponzie scheme goes POP! Taking the whole crypto markets down with it by a good 90%! Find out in my latest video whats going to happen and why and what I am doing about it to protect myself from Crypto Lehman bros.

Wednesday, June 09, 2021

Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Prepare For Volatility / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

While some of you think that I dismiss your comments to my articles, I will be honest with you that some comments make me think, whereas some just make me scratch my head.

Last week, I outlined one of the issues that many have with EW, and that is related to the provision of a primary count and an alternative count. And, I addressed that concern as follows:

Again, this is simply based upon a lack of understanding as to how Elliott Wave analysis works. I have addressed this argument many times before, but I think it is worthwhile to address it one more time.

First, one has to ask themselves if any methodology will provide "definitive" guidance in the financial markets? Remember, we deal with a non-linear environment, and need to apply a non-linear methodology to obtain the greatest success within such an environment.

Wednesday, June 09, 2021

How do I Choose an Online Trading Broker? / Stock-Markets / Learn to Trade

By: Sumeet_Manhas

The Internet is full of stories of people who have become successful Forex brokers without even financial experience and education. Undoubtedly, it is tempting for every person to try themselves in Forex trading to understand if it is the niche where they can make money. If you are one of them, one of the first steps is the selection of a Forex broker and a platform. When it comes to the choice of a broker, there are some crucial aspects to take into consideration.

Tuesday, June 08, 2021

Stock Market Approaching an Intermediate peak! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over, and it ends.  A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.

SPX Intermediate trend:  Phase three (wave 5 from 3723) is now likely underway.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Monday, June 07, 2021

Stock Market Volatility Crash Course (VIX vs VVIX) – Learn How to Profit From Volatility / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Volatility is the most common way to measure risk in the financial markets. While there are a plethora of methods, calculations, and derivatives to calculate volatility, they are all trying to accomplish the same goal: what is the price of a security going to do in the future? Without a crystal ball, there’s no perfect answer, but let’s go through a few common ways that we can estimate future volatility.