Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Sunday, July 13, 2014
European Stock Markets Leading Again? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The market opened the week on a gap down, one of several, as it started to correct from last week’s SPX 1986 all time high. After hitting SPX 1953 on Thursday the market tried to rebound into Friday’s close. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.80%, the NDX/NAZ were -1.05%, and the DJ World index was down 1.55%. Economic reports were sparse on this first full trading week of the quarter. On the uptick: consumer credit, wholesale inventories, the WLEI, a Treasury surplus, and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: the monetary base. Next week we have the FED’s beige book, Industrial production and reports on Housing, to name a few, within a busy week.
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Saturday, July 12, 2014
Corporate Earnings Season Is Here..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
When that time of year comes we always keep a keen eye on how stocks are treated if they beat or miss their numbers. We also watch for guidance. Will good numbers and good guidance get ignored or rewarded? Will bad numbers or guidance get a stock smoked or will anyone care? This gives us a real clue as to the markets overall big picture health. Most don't care about the big picture, but you need to care. In addition, if a market needs to sell, then bad reports can be the catalyst. Today we had a key leader in the financial world. Wells Fargo & Company (WFC), the best of the best, reported poor earnings with regards to revenues. The stock was smoked early on, but it managed to get a bid as the day went on, allowing it to close well off the lows.
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Friday, July 11, 2014
Gutting the U.S. Armed Forces, Committing Economic Suicide, France Imploding / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
This week was interesting to say the least and it is ending with a bang. We are covering a number of brief subjects this week. I hope you enjoy them.
- Gutting the armed forces
- Politically correct, but practically incorrect economic suicide.
- Farmland disaster DEAD ahead
- Repressed to Death
- NOT a SMIDGEN of Corruption!
- France is IMPLODING economically: Vive la France
- Bonfire of the Vanities!
- This will not have a HAPPY ending!
Friday, July 11, 2014
Most Hated Stocks Bull Market! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
BIG PICTURE - The ongoing bull market is over 5 years old and both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P500 Index have climbed to record highs. Yet, the vast majority of retail investors are still not convinced and many are waiting for the elusive stock market crash!
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Thursday, July 10, 2014
Why We Are Heavily Invested in Poland / Stock-Markets / European Stock Markets
There’s a reason why Poland retains the number two slot in our Emerging Europe Fund (EUROX), following Turkey. Ever since the fall of communism in 1989, the country has risen steadily, from a fledgling republic beset by near-bankruptcy, a deteriorating infrastructure and an East-West identity crisis, to emerge as one of the European Union’s (EU) most prosperous nations, alongside the U.K., France, Germany and Spain.
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Thursday, July 10, 2014
Stock Market Breakdown / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The Pre-market (delayed) is down .8% as I write, while the futures are down over 1%. This puts SPX below the hourly mid-Cycle support at 1957.39. Try as hard as I might, I could not get an impulse out of this week’s decline in the SPX, although the other indexes may easily be impulses. There are five declining waves, but the third is the smallest, which is a no-no in Elliott Wave parlance. The alternative to a Minute Wave (a) is a probable extended Minor Wave 1. Yesterday’s bounce did not overlap, suggesting impulsive qualities that could lend to an extended decline.
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Thursday, July 10, 2014
Signs of Stock Market Trouble Are Looming / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Michael E. Lewitt writes Markets are priced to perfection.
Signs of late-cycle behavior and thinking are abundant.
The latest example came from BMO's strategist Brian Belski, who published a report arguing that the bull market in stocks will continue for another ten years with annual gains of 10.5%.
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Thursday, July 10, 2014
Stock Market Down But Not Out... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
That's the bulls for you. Just when it looked like it was all over, and it still may very well be, they stage a rally after two open gap downs that held. A rally up, sure, but a gap up made little sense. Now we do know that the gap up was filled back down with some indexes actually going red at one point today, so there's no technical damage to the good work done by the bears over the past two days. That said, it was strange to see such a decent rally today. The score is currently two to zero with the bears in front.
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Thursday, July 10, 2014
Poverty Matters for Capitalists - Stock Market Impact / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
Having taken Thomas Piketty to the cleaners a few weeks back (see “Gave & Gave … and Hay”), Charles Gave now redresses the balance with regard to the issue of economic inequality in today’s Outside the Box. He makes a forceful case that “poverty matters for capitalists”:
Every US recession that I can recall was preceded by a fall in long rates, and I doubt the next will be much different. As such, do not expect the next US downturn to arise from the Federal Reserve pushing rates higher, an overvalued dollar or even mal-investments. Expect it to result from a decline in the income of the working poor. Early warning signs are likely to show up in the shopping aisles of stores such as Walmart, average driving miles, and the price of houses at the cheaper end of the market. I suspect the lesson that will eventually be learnt is that in a modern industrialized economy there are few worse things a central bank can do than deliberately attack the spending power of the poor.
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Thursday, July 10, 2014
The Fake Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
For the average person trying to decide how to feel about the economy, the single biggest data point is the stock market. When share prices are rising, the implicit message is that finance professionals — who, after all, dedicate their lives to understanding such things and should therefore know what’s happening — have decided that life is good and getting better.
So the rest of us relax and go shopping. Known as the “wealth effect,” this tendency of asset prices to affect consumer behavior is now a key policy goal of the US and pretty much every other major government.
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Wednesday, July 09, 2014
Stock Market Rising / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Good Morning!
Considering that the FOMC minutes are being released at 2:00 pm today, it would normally follow that equities may stay elevated until then.
There are three waves in the decline so far. If the SPX has a limited bounce and declines at least to mid-Cycle support at 1955.96, then SPX would have a clean 5 waves. A 50% retracement may limit the bounce this morning to 1972.52 which would still allow a fifth wave.
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Wednesday, July 09, 2014
Stock Market 3-Wave Decline Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
S&P 500 made a downward extension yesterday, close to 1950. The move is very strong, so it appears that the rally from 1935 is already done, that can be a fifth wave within a bigger impulsive rally. We know that after every five wave move market, it will turn into the opposite direction with minimum three legs. With that in mind, we suspect that price will remain bearish for another, third leg of decline, maybe after hitting 1967 resistance.
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Wednesday, July 09, 2014
Stock Market Second Day of Selling / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Courtesy of Doug Short.
Another day of no economic news coupled with fretting about Q2 earnings took its toll on the market. The S&P 500 opened in the shallow red at its intraday high and sold off to its -0.92% intraday low early in the lunch hour. A 90-minute afternoon rally lost traction and gave up about half its gain. The index closed with a 0.70 loss.
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Wednesday, July 09, 2014
QE: Quantitative Easing or Questionably Effective / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
We all know the S&P 500 Index has been on a 5+ year rally to all-time highs – thanks to ultra-low interest rates and the levitating wonder of “printing money” via QE – Quantitative Easing. Examine the following chart of the S&P for the past 20 years.
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Tuesday, July 08, 2014
How to Profit from the Improved Jobs Numbers / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
George Leong writes: The stock market is looking higher. The DOW and the S&P 500 closed up for the fifth straight month as we enter into the second half of what has largely been a mixed and cautious year.
For growth investors, the good news is that small-cap stocks came back in June with a 5.15% advance and are easily leading the broader market. Technology also fared well with the NASDAQ up 3.9% in June. Blue chips and large-caps trailed the growth side. In the first half, the S&P 500 leads with a 6.07% gain followed by the 5.54% advance in the NASDAQ.
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Tuesday, July 08, 2014
Stock Market Gap Down That Holds / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
That is a change of trend, but it's not confirmed yet. At least the bears can say they have an open gap now. This hasn't been the case of any magnitude in quite some time as this gap is decent in size. The bears need a second gap down in the next few days without allowing the bulls to fill this open gap. If that does indeed take place then the bears will get more aggressive. Two open gaps make a bear very happy as they know they will be defended on any attempt to get back through. Today is an important first step, but it is only step number one and to take it a bit further, the volume on the gap down was not strong enough to give the bears that all over fuzzy feeling.
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Tuesday, July 08, 2014
Airplanes, Automobiles and Stock Market Crashes / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
Shah Gilani writes: By the time you’re reading this, I’ll be 30,000 feet in the air – if my plane’s not delayed further.
While that doesn’t matter to you, it does to me… if we crash.
What’s relevant about my flying today is that this morning on my way to the airport, in the back of a cab in dead slow traffic, I started thinking about airplanes and stock-market crashes.
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Monday, July 07, 2014
Thriving in a Crisis Economy - 2014 Fall Casey Summit / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
Even though I sometimes have trouble remembering what I ate for breakfast, I vividly remember watching John Wayne's movie The Alamo, even though I was only seven years old at the time.
That it made such a big impression on my young self was due to a combination of the heroics of the small band fighting against overwhelming odds, as well as a fascination that fate brought Davey Crockett and Jim Bowie - two of my favorite historical characters as a kid - together in the doomed fort.
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Monday, July 07, 2014
U.S. Stock Market Analysis and Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Gary Tanashian writes: The following is an excerpt from NFTRH 298′s 38 pages of hard hitting, no b/s market analysis, which also included extensive work on the precious metals along with commodities, currencies, global markets and market sentiment.
Stock Markets – US
Happy Independence Day America! Your markets are bullish… and over bought, over loved and running on increasing momentum.
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Monday, July 07, 2014
Stocks Extend Uptrend As Investors Sentiment Remains High – Will It Continue? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.
Our intraday outlook remains neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: neutral
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: neutral
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish