Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Wednesday, August 28, 2013
Stock Market What's Next....? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
That's a great question. If you study the sixty-minute short-term charts, they're a bit more bullish. As things tried to sell today the MACD's refused to turn down. Yes, I am clearly a MACD guy. Always have been. It's in my blood. Even though 1639 should be very tough resistance, it seems to me that short-term charts may allow a bit higher first. No guarantee whatsoever as 1639 can just knock the market right back down. In addition, any move back down will get things oversold again on those short-term charts. Makes things very tough for both sides.
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Wednesday, August 28, 2013
Bond Markets No Safe Haven from Stock Market Risk / Stock-Markets / US Bonds
Bond yields spike to a 2-year high
Two months ago, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said he was puzzled by the upward surge in Treasury yields. And bond yields are even higher now, reaching a two-year high on August 15.
Wednesday, August 28, 2013
Bernanke Tells Emerging Markets to Stop Crying and Grow Up! / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Bailouts appear to be the established substitute for sustainable policy. In that spirit, Brazil last week announced a $60 billion program to shore up its currency. India has been introducing capital controls. South Africa is considering currency intervention. Blamed is the Federal Reserve’s taper talk. But as critical as we have been of Fed policy in recent years, emerging markets should stop crying and consider embracing long overdue reforms. We discuss who may win this battle as currency wars continue to rage.
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Monday, August 26, 2013
Stock Market Momentum Still Down / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
I love good bounce, don't you?
But just how good have our index bounces really been so far. While we had a pretty exciting session on Friday the voulum on a 0.34% up day on the SPY (see Dave Fry's chart) was only 1/2 what it was on the 0.64% drop on Wednesday. As Dave notes: "They don't put volume on your brokerage statement, but…." As to our bounce lines - not too impressive:
- Dow 14,960 (weak) and 15,120 (strong)
- S&P 1,658 and 1,671
- Nas 3,620 and 3,640
- NYSE 9,420 and 9,500
- Rut 1,020 and 1,030
Monday, August 26, 2013
The Truth About the Nasdaq Trading Freeze / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Shah Gilani writes: If Goldman Sachs can lose $100 million in a matter of minutes on account of its computers misfiring, is that a sign of things to come? Or is it proof we're already there?
You heard about last week's shutdown, but do you know what it means?
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Monday, August 26, 2013
Stock Market Fractured Decline / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over), there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the severe correction of 2007-2009 may have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.
Intermediate trend - SPX and some other indices have formed a H&S top which was confirmed with last week's sell-off. A back-test of the neckline is possible over the near-term.
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Monday, August 26, 2013
Stock Market - Time To Be Defensively Pro-Active / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
We are no fans of the Fed-sponsored stock market takeover, but that seems to be the way of central planners, these days...eliminate free markets and get them to react how it puts central planning and Lying Ben's disastrous QE4Ever in a positive light, no matter that everything else is falling apart.
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Sunday, August 25, 2013
The Coming Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
One mistake most investors made when building their portfolio is using the bottom-up approach where they tend to concentrate on stock picking without paying attention to the overall market. When you apply the bottom-up approach you tend to ‘not see the forest for the trees’ because you are focusing on the ‘micro side’ of the market. Or put it another way, you concentrate on the companies but miss out on the overall market.
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Sunday, August 25, 2013
Stock Market Short Term Stabilization, But Not Out of the Woods Yet / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Courtesy of Doug Short. Chris Puplava writes: Given how oversold the market was entering this week it’s not surprising to see some stabilization. The S&P 500 was able to reclaim its 50-day moving average (50d MA) though I don’t think we are quite out of the woods as sentiment and other intermediate technical indicators remain only slightly below neutral levels. One noticeable improvement has been sentiment, which has worked off some of the recent bullish levels and moved closer to levels associated with bottoms as both active money managers and retail investors turn overly bearish.
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Sunday, August 25, 2013
Stock Market Bears Draw Blood - 5 Down On The SPY / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
SPY
Last week's article I left readers with the idea of looking for a bounce for wave [iv] and new lows for wave [v].
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Saturday, August 24, 2013
Stock Market Downtrend Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
The market opened the week flat, made a new downtrend low Monday, retested that low Tuesday, then made a lower low after the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. After that the market rallied for the rest of the week. For the week the SPX/DOW were mixed, the NDX/NAZ were +1.55%, and the DJ World index lost 0.3%. It is interesting that the DOW has confirmed the downtrend, while the SPX/NDX/NAZ have yet to do so. On the economic front it was another mixed week. On the uptick: existing home sales, FHFA housing prices, leading indicators and the monetary base. On the downtick: new home sales, the WLEI, and weekly jobless claims rose. Next week the first revision to Q2 GDP, plus PCE prices, Personal income/spending and Consumer sentiment. Best to your week.
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Saturday, August 24, 2013
Financial and Economic Meltdown Coming?! / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
“Our estimates of prospective risk are surging…
“At present, we have what might best be characterized as a broken speculative peak, in that market internals (particularly interest-sensitive groups), breadth and leadership have broken down uniformly following an extreme overvalued, overbought, overbullish syndrome.
“If you recall, the market also recovered to new highs in October 2007, weeks after the initial, decisive break in market internals at that time. Presently, we’re looking at the same set of circumstances. On some event related to tapering or the Fed Chair nomination, we may even see another push higher. It isn't simply short-term risk, but deep cyclical risk that is of concern.”
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Friday, August 23, 2013
Stocks Bear Market Looms / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The US stock markets have enjoyed a dazzling year, levitating to a long series of new record highs. But this relentless advance has stalled in August, with selling pressure mounting. Even most of the bulls readily agree that a material selloff is overdue after such a mighty run. But actually the odds are high this necessary retreat will extend well beyond normal pullbacks or even corrections into a new cyclical bear.
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Friday, August 23, 2013
Economic Napalm - Stock Market and Economic Crash to Begin Now! / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
The smell of economic NAPALM is in the air as the central bank printing presses have allowed mispricing, malinvestments and market imbalances to mushroom to EXPLOSIVE levels. Now the money printing is set to slow and some of the insolvent can be expected to fall to their doom as the tide of money recedes.
This has set the stage for a BLACK swan of unknown identity to set off the conflagration. The Black swans are too numerous to mention but we are going to identify a few of them in this edition of fingers of instability.
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Friday, August 23, 2013
Stock Market Bedlam Breaks Loose! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
First the NASDAQ broke down at noon, precisely when AAPL fell beneath 500.00 (any coincidence there?).
Virtually all NASDAQ stocks were halted.
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Friday, August 23, 2013
NASDAQ Stock Market Trading Halted / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
As I am sure you have heard NASDAQ trading for stocks and options was halted earlier today around 12:23 PM because of a computer trading glitch. It is now scheduled to reopen for trading at 3:25 PM although quite a few stocks are now showing quotes.
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Friday, August 23, 2013
When Exchanges Crash Do They Dream of Electronic Sheep / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
When the Exchanges crash and burn, do they dream of electronic sheep?
Well, I cannot say if they dream or not, but you may as well be dreaming of electronic money, if that is where you keep your wealth, and it is lost somewhere in an electronic storm. You are reliant on the integrity of the exchanges and their owners for restitution. Often it works out well, and things go on as normal. But as the dominoes of counterparty risk start falling, it is 'might makes right' as we saw in the mysterious case of MF Global.
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Thursday, August 22, 2013
Fed Hits the Markets WE Kill Switch / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
On Wednesday the Fed released the minutes from its July 30-31 policy meeting. Minutes from the meeting showed that most members of the FOMC agreed that a reduction of the stimulus was not yet appropriate. Only a few thought it was time to “slow somewhat” the pace of the stimulus policy.
Investors continue to fear that the Fed will start to slow its $85 billion monthly asset purchases, with most predicting September as the beginning of the end of the aggressive quantitative easing (QE) program. This fear was manifested beginning in June as foreign investors sold U.S. Treasuries to the tune of $489 billion in that month alone. The annualized rate of Treasury notes and bonds sold over the last three months was $271 billion. In more recent days, Asian currencies have declined as investors fear tighter Fed policy will starve emerging markets of investment funds.
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Thursday, August 22, 2013
Possible Stock Market Pop and Drop / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
It now appears that Minor Wave 4 is not yet completed. A closer examination of the waves suggests that the bottom at 1400 hours was an impulse, finishing off Minor Wave 3. However, both the rally from that low and the subsequent decline into the close were a-b-c waves. It should come as no surprise that Minor Wave 4 may retest the 50-day moving average before selling off. The Wave structure suggests either a 12.9 hour or 17.2 hour decline may follow, finishing intermediate Wave (1) by Friday’s close or Monday morning.
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Wednesday, August 21, 2013
Pivot Day for the US Dollar and SPX / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
The Pre-Market has pushed lower, but not yet breaking yesterday’s low. Having closed just below Cycle Bottom Support/resistance at 1652.76 and failing to levitate back above that level in the Pre-Market suggests that SPX may go considerably lower today. That doesn’t rule out some kind of correction when the FOMC minutes are released at 2:00 pm (1400 hours).
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