Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, July 19, 2020
Did the Stock Market Bubble Just Pop? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Doug_Wakefield
It has been 18 months since I closed Best Minds Inc. Today I am teaching math. I love math because even when opinions appear totally wrong, math is still based on proofs.
So let’s prove that we are in a massive financial bubble that today, may have finally popped, even with all the “help” from central planners of market manipulation.
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Sunday, July 19, 2020
Quick Souring of the S&P 500 Stock Market Mood / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
We got that extension of Friday's rally on Monday, as I called for. Vaccine hype news. Good for bulls with tight exit orders – I managed to take a 55-points profit off the table. But big tech (think Microsoft, Amazon) suffered with talk of its bubble rising, U.S. – China tensions increased, and California sweepingly rolled back its reopening.
Spooky stuff for stocks, and they tanked. The brightening outlook I discussed after Friday's session, didn't last all that long. But is the selling over now, or we better brace for some more?
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Friday, July 17, 2020
The Bizarre Mathematics Of How Negative Interest Rates Create Stratospheric Profits / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: Dan_Amerman
There is an increasingly good chance that the United States could end up following Europe and Japan, and that the Federal Reserve could use its vast powers of monetary creation to force a move to negative interest rates.
If that deeply unnatural event happens, it will invert and distort the very foundations of investment pricing, in ways that are little understood by most investors today.
It will also - for a time - create an unnatural source of profits that most investors have no idea about, because it has never happened before in the United States (and is still in the early stages in the United Kingdom).
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Thursday, July 16, 2020
Dow Stock Market Crash Watch - Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: readtheticker
Like 1929 the markets have bounced. This time it is on the back of the FED $6.5T money printing.
Previous Post: Dow 2020 Crash Watch
But can the FED blow $6T every time the market rolls down to test support.
Yes, maybe before the US 2020 elections the FED will do 'what it takes'. But post elections not so much, the year 2021 is a long way from the next election (presidential or congress) and defense of the markets may not be so supportive at $6T or $10T per market smash. The FED may hesitate, and that will be window for stocks to break lower.
The 36 month simple moving average (SMA) is a good indicator of the Dow Jones trend (36 months is three years). It has been a good indicator of Dow break outs over the last 100 years.
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Wednesday, July 15, 2020
Retail Stock Market Traders & Investors Squeezed to Buy High-Risk Assets Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Yes, we certainly live in interesting times. This, the last segment of our multi-part article on the current Q2 and Q3 2020 US and global economic expectations, as well as current data points, referencing very real ongoing concerns, we urge you to continue using common sense to help protect your assets and families from what we believe will be a very volatile end to 2020. If you missed the first two segments of this research article, please take a moment to review them before continuing.
On May 24th, 2020, we published this research article related to our super-cycle research. It is critical that you understand what is really happening in the world as we move through these major 21 to 85+ year super-cycles and apply that knowledge to the data we have presented in the first two segments of this research post. Within that article, we quoted Ray Dalio from a recent article published related to his cycle research.
Read full article... Read full article...“In brief, after the creation of a new set of rules establishes the new world order, there is typically a peaceful and prosperous period. As people get used to this they increasingly bet on the prosperity continuing, and they increasingly borrow money to do that, which eventually leads to a bubble. As prosperity increases the wealth gap grows. Eventually, the debt bubble bursts, which leads to the printing of money and credit and increased internal conflict, which leads to some sort of wealth redistribution revolution that can be peaceful or violent. Typically at that time late in the cycle, the leading empire that won the last economic and geopolitical war is less powerful relative to rival powers that prospered during the prosperous period, and with the bad economic conditions and the disagreements between powers, there is typically some kind of war. Out of this debt, economic, domestic, and world-order breakdowns that take the forms of revolutions and wars come new winners and losers. Then the winners get together to create the new domestic and world orders.”
Wednesday, July 15, 2020
SPX about to Challenge 8/08 High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Having rallied well past a .618 retracement of the decline into March 2020, it is time to consider the possibility that the retracement was only an interruption of the bull market which originated in 2009.
Intermediate trend – Still in an uptrend since March
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, July 13, 2020
Stock Market Dow 30k before End of 2020? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Looking at the way the Dow has behaved to date in the wake of the the Great Corona Crash of 2020.
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Monday, July 13, 2020
Credit Market Investments Turned Into End-User Risk Again / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Continuing our research from Part I, into what to expect in Q2 and Q3 of 2020, we’ll start by discussing our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive modeling system and our belief that the US stock market is rallied beyond proper expectation levels. The Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) modeling systems attempts to identify price and technical indicator DNA markers and attempts to map our these unique price setups. Then, it attempts to learn from the past DNA markers and apply that learned price behavior to future price DNA markers. In this manner, it learns from the past and applies that knowledge to the future.
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Sunday, July 12, 2020
Stop Believing The 'Economy' Is The Same As The Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
There are so many fallacies perpetuated and regurgitated throughout the market, yet there is so little time to appropriately address them all.
Of late, almost all the “analysis” or comments you read or hear is based upon a superficial understanding of the market propagated through “common-speak.” And, that is exactly why they all seem to be so confused:
“The stock market is confusing a lot of people right now. It seems simple: news is bad, there's a pandemic for the first time in generations, people are dying, and the economy has taken a beating for the ages. Stocks should go down, right? But they're not. They've recovered so much of their March slide that they've produced the shortest bear market in history. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was in a bear market for just three days.”
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Saturday, July 11, 2020
The Big Short 2020 – World Pushes Credit/Investments Into Risk Again / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
One thing is very certain right now – we live in very interesting times. As the world rushes head-first into the 21st Century, it appears one of the most pressing issues before all of us is to navigate the risks and opportunities that continue to stack up ahead of us. Within the first 20 years of this century, the global markets have experienced many shifts and big price rotations. Emerging markets, Oil, Technology, Bio-Tech, Miners, Metals, Currencies, Cryptos – we can look at all of these on a longer-term basis and see a boom cycle and a moderate bust cycle event.
The current trends suggest global investors are pouring capital into the US technology stocks which is what is driving the NASDAQ to new all-time highs. We published this article in late June suggesting a parabolic top pattern may be setting up in the global markets – which may be very similar to the DOT COM peak in 1999~2000 explained here.
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Friday, July 10, 2020
Stock Market: "Relevant Waves Vs. Irrelevant News" / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
Let's (again) delve into the connection between the stock market and newsThe stock market is a fractal -- i.e., a self-repeating form at all degrees of trend. Meaning, without the time or price labels, you can't tell if you're looking at a 2-minute chart or at a monthly one.
What's more, stock market trends unfold in repetitive and recognizable price patterns.
What's more, these patterns -- Elliott wave pattens -- emerge regardless of the news.
Tuesday, July 07, 2020
A Reason to be "Extra-Attentive" to Stock Market Sentiment Measures / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
Extreme investor sentiment, whether bullish or bearish, is often a sign that a financial market is on the cusp of a turn.
Here's the reason: When almost everyone is bullish (or bearish), there's almost no one left to push the market higher (or lower).
Having said that, an extreme market sentiment can become even more extreme before a trend change occurs. So, an investor should not rely solely on sentiment measures when making portfolio decisions. In other words, sentiment measures should be put into context with technical indicators, the Elliott wave model and other factors which an Elliott wave expert may consider important.
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Tuesday, July 07, 2020
Stock Market Bears Lose Epic Battle / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Ricky_Wen
Tuesday’s session played out as an upside trend day where every dip was bought as price action formed higher lows and higher highs. The context is quite clear as both bulls and bears were duking it out for the monthly and quarterly closing print. When one side loses a critical battle and keeps losing on numerous key setups, then it is what it is.
The new main takeaway from the past couple days is that the bears lost an epic battle and now the overall pattern is becoming fairly bullish given the high-level consolidation/channel on the daily and weekly charts. If you recall, the more time that the price action consolidates near the highs, the higher odds it gives the the ongoing bulls because the gummy bears were not able to entice the real, big, bad bears to rotate come into town. If price action keeps sustaining above 3030 on the Emini S&P 500 (ES) in the coming days, then market participants will have to be looking for an eventual breakout to the upside.
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Monday, July 06, 2020
Stock Market Short-term Peaking / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Having rallied well past a .618 retracement of the decline into March 2020, it is time to consider the possibility that the retracement was only an interruption of the bull market which originated in 2009.
Intermediate trend – Down into mid-July
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Friday, July 03, 2020
Stock Market Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recent Gaps in price action in the IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) presents a clear picture of future price targets and support/resistances. Gaps are one of the most common forms of Technical Analysis techniques. They represent “voids” where price activity has skipped a range of price as it advances or declines aggressively.
Gaps are commonly used as targets for future price activity – where price attempts to “fill the gap”. In Technical Analysis theory, any gap that appears should eventually be “filled” by price in the future. Thus, any open gap that does not fill is still considered an “open target range”.
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Thursday, July 02, 2020
All Eyes on Markets to Get a Refreshed Outlook. / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Submissions
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Thursday, July 02, 2020
The Darkening Clouds on the Stock Market S&P 500 Horizon / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
Friday's overnight gains evaporated faster than you could say Jack Robinson, and not much bottom fishing came later that day. Is the tide in stocks turning – or has it turned already? With Thursday's financial news-driven gains reversed in a flash, it's tempting to say so – especially when coupled with the other signs I see in the charts.
In short, more downside appears likely, confirming what I said in Friday's analysis. A quick quote: "Despite the generally positive S&P 500 performance during the runups to Independence Day, the new Fed rules might not have saved the day yet. Trading remains choppy, corona cases just made a new U.S. daily high, and the elections are getting closer."
Will the market agree?
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Wednesday, July 01, 2020
US Stock Markets Enter Parabolic Price Move / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In the first part of this research article, we briefly discussed the recent price and global economic events related to the 2018 to 2020 US stock market volatility and the COVID-19 virus event. The premise of this research post was to highlight the current upside parabolic price trend that initiated shortly after the 2015~16 US election cycle event. It is almost impossible to look at the NAS100 chart, below, and not see the dramatic upside price advance that took place after the November 2016 US elections.
It is almost as if the US stock markets had been primed by Federal Reserve intervention over the previous 5+ years and someone let the monster out of the cage. The deregulation, changes to tax structures and general perception of market opportunity changed almost immediately after the November 2016 elections and really never looked back.
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Tuesday, June 30, 2020
More Stock Market Selling Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Having rallied well past a .618 retracement of the decline into March 2020, it is time to consider the possibility that the retracement was only an interruption of the bull market which originated in 2009.
Intermediate trend – Down into mid-July
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, June 29, 2020
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching the Precipice / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks made quite a move out of the 5-day long congestion yesterday – is the downside move drawing to a close? I don't think so yet, and today's analysis will discuss quite a few reasons why. As for the battle of narratives, the corona fears are gaining the upper hand over the recovery focus currently, which highlights the S&P 500 downside potential in the short-term. Will stocks follow through on the many cues?
And how will the market take to the incoming unemployment claims? I think they would not bring about a bullish surprise, and will likely prove to be a catalyst of selling pressure during the regular U.S. market hours.
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