Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Wednesday, January 15, 2020

Silver Traders Big Trend Analysis – Part II / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

This, the second part of our Silver research article suggesting Silver may be forming a massive price base in preparation for an explosive upside move, will continue from Part I of this research series.

Our research team believes Silver is setting up in a price pattern that may already be “ripe” for an explosive upside move.  Our researchers have poured over the data and believe the disparity between Gold and Silver is already at excessive levels. 

Historically, anytime the disparity between Gold prices and Silver prices (rationalized into comparative Gold price levels) breaches 30% to 60% and Gold begins an upside price advance, Silver typically begins to move higher with 4 to 8+ months.  This setup pushes the Gold to Silver ratio back below 50 or 60 as Silver rallies substantially higher, and faster than the price of Gold.

Wednesday, January 15, 2020

Silver Short-Term Pullback Before Acceleration Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund charts silver's progress in comparison to gold's following recent world events.

Silver's recent rally looks diminutive and stunted compared to gold's, but that's normal at this early stage of a new bull market, when silver typically underperforms gold due to investors being risk-averse and silver being perceived as more risky and volatile than gold.

Nevertheless, as we can see on its latest 6-month chart, silver did manage to break out of its reactive downtrend in force from early September. Last week, at the time Iran lobbed missiles at U.S. bases in Iraq, it had a go at breaking above its late September highs. But it was not up to the task and fell back, putting in a reversal candle on big volume, which suggests that it probably has further to fall short term—perhaps back to the upper boundary of the downtrend channel shown. But with the overall tenor of this chart positive, it should then turn higher again.

Wednesday, January 15, 2020

Gold Overall Outlook Is 'Strongly Bullish' / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund examines the effects of recent geopolitical events on the precious metals markets.

It has been a week of surprises since the last updates were posted. First, I had not expected Iran to retaliate following the murder of its top general by a U.S. drone—but it did, despite the risks, as it was politically necessary to assuage the extreme anger of its population who demanded revenge.

The next surprise was that Israel and the U.S. did not use this retaliation as an excuse to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age, which is what they really want to do. As we know, the long-term goal of Israel and the U.S. is to subjugate Iran, and they will not stop until they attain this goal.

And so it goes on. It appears that there was a bit of theater involved in Iran's retaliation, as it clandestinely signaled its intentions which allowed U.S. forces to get out of harm's way. Perhaps U.S. forces did not then launch a blitzkrieg out of consideration for this courtesy.

Regardless of the muddled and unpredictable fundamental situation, which included the accidental downing of a passenger plane by Iranian defensive missile batteries, the charts allowed us to make a reasonably accurate prediction regarding what was likely to happen to the gold price. The call for a near-term top in the precious metals (PM) sector made on the site on Monday looked incorrect the following evening, when gold suddenly surged about $35 on news of the retaliatory Iranian missile strike. But when it later became apparent that there were, strangely, no U.S. troop casualties and no further action against Iran, gold and silver reversed dramatically and dropped quite hard, as the tension then looked set to ease, at least over the short-term.

Tuesday, January 14, 2020

Fighting the Fed (and the Crooked Banks) by Holding Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Market forecaster Martin Zweig famously warned investors against underestimating the power of the Federal Reserve Bank to control markets. He coined the phrase “Don’t fight the Fed” back in the 80’s. Precious metals investors are wondering if this is still good advice.

On one hand, it is pretty hard to argue with that bit of wisdom.

The Fed Zweig was referencing had begun taking a more overt role in markets, using interest rates as a tool for managing the economy.

Paul Volcker dramatically raised interest rates to put price inflation from the late 1970’s back under control.

Tuesday, January 14, 2020

Gold and Silver Flashing Caution / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Rambus_Chartology

Heads UP …from Rambus Chartology.

“You may recall we were looking at the Japanese YEN / PM complex combo chart several months ago comparing the YEN to the PM complex. For whatever reasons how the YEN goes the PM complex tends to follow. It’s not a perfect correlation but close enough to pay attention. Today the YEN gapped below an important trendline that goes all the way back to October of 2018, second chart from the top.

While the YEN has broken below its October trendline the PM complex is showing a possible 3rd reversal point in the August 2019 trading range. When I went to cash last September it was based on the PM complex building out a 4 point consolidation pattern to consolidate the previous impulse move up. At the time I had no idea what the consolidation pattern may look like only that we would need to see at least 4 reversal points at a minimum.

Monday, January 13, 2020

Silver Investors Big Trend Analysis for – Part I / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Everyone seems to be focused on Gold recently and seems to be ignoring the real upside potential in Silver.  With all the global economic issues, military tensions, geopolitical issues, and other items continually pushed into the news cycles, it is easy to understand why traders and investors may be ignoring Silver.

Silver has really not started to move like the other precious metals.  Gold is up over 45% since 2016.  Palladium is up over 350% since 2016.  Silver is up only 29% since 2016.  The Gold to Silver ratio is currently at 86.7 – very near to the highest level on record going back over 25 years.

Monday, January 13, 2020

Gold Explodes, Then Implodes – Again / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

It shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone, because it has happened before.

Gold’s quick roundtrip from $1540 to $1610 and back again ($1539 earlier today) had its roots in actions and words between the United States and Iran. Prognosticators say there is more to come. Maybe; maybe not. But there is historical precedent for gold’s action.

Monday, January 13, 2020

Craig Hemke Gold & Silver 2020 Prediction, Slams Biased Gold Naysayers / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report. Craig is a well-known name in the metals industry and runs one of the most highly respected websites in our space and provides some of the best analysis you will find anywhere on banking schemes, global macroeconomics, and evidence of manipulation in the gold and silver markets.

Happy New Year to you, Craig. Thanks for coming on and welcome, how are you?

Craig Hemke: Mike, it's always a pleasure. New Year's started off with a bang, man. I hope it's not indicative of how crazy this entire year is going to be. We'll see.

Saturday, January 11, 2020

Gold Price Reacting to Global Flash Points / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Richard_Mills

Gold’s safe haven status was tested this week, as Iran countered the assassination of its top military commander with missile strikes against two Iraqi bases housing US troops.

On Tuesday night Tehran fired over a dozen missiles at the Al-Asad airbase and Erbil airport, in obvious retaliation against an American drone strike a few days earlier that killed General Qassem Soleimani.

The country’s foreign minister, Javad Sarif, took to Twitter to announce the attack, writing that “Iran took & concluded proportionate measures in self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter targeting base from which cowardly armed attack against our citizens & senior officials were launched. We do not see escalation or war, but will defend ourselves against any aggression.” 

Saturday, January 11, 2020

Gold Buying Precarious / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold dramatically surged to major new secular highs this past week, fueled by stunning geopolitical news.  The US assassinated Iran’s top general, so Iran fired ballistic missiles at military bases in Iraq used by the US.  That naturally ramped gold bullishness, spawning all kinds of predictions for much-higher prices.  But geopolitically-driven gold spikes never last long, and the gold buying behind this surge is very precarious.

Geopolitics are fascinating, the modern intersection of centuries of history, politics, religion, and military actions.  Growing up, geopolitics were my second passion after the markets.  I read everything I could on that broad topic, both nonfiction and fiction.  Tom Clancy’s masterful novels were my favorites, and I love that whole technothriller genre to this day.  For decades I’ve eagerly followed and devoured geopolitical news.

Friday, January 10, 2020

Gold Above $1,600 As Iran Retaliates / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

We didn’t have to wait long for Iran’s response. After the missile attack on U.S. bases in Iraq, gold briefly soared above $1,600. What should we expect next?

Iran Retaliates, Gold Rallies

On Tuesday, I wrote that “given that Soleimani was widely seen as the second most powerful figure in Iran, we should expect a response.” And, indeed, it arrived before too long. On Wednesday, just hours after the funeral of the Iranian general, Iran launched a missile attack on two military bases in Iraq housing U.S. troops.

Friday, January 10, 2020

Gold Gann Angle Update / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: readtheticker

The new year of 2020 has gold is poised to break out higher. Why is gold going higher? Maybe the FED's economists can explain .... or not.

Maybe these could be on the list:

- FED repo hundreds of billions a day.
- ECB made up tools to keep the European banks solvent.
- A sugar high stock market with Apple Inc and Microsoft looking like Bitcoin 2017.
- The US bond market is NOT confirming a strong stock market.
- Corporate profits have flat lined for 3 years while stocks soared each year.
- Knowing an US election year needs stimulus, and a lower US dollar is a first choice.
- China deal, will have a currency element to make it easier to do business. Lower US dollar.

Friday, January 10, 2020

Gold In Rally Mode Suggests Commitment of Traders (COT) Data / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Many people believe the price of Gold will need to fall to support Institutional short positions.  We don’t believe this is the case.  The Commitment Of Traders (COT) Data suggests Commercial Hedgers have a large and growing shot position that is a very positive sign for a continued rally in Gold and Miners looking forward months from now.

Don’t think about COT data like everyone else with it comes to gold.

Over the past 20+ years, every time the COT Commercial Hedgers position in Gold falls, weakens substantially, or makes new multi-year lows the price of gold rallies.

Friday, January 10, 2020

How on Earth Can Gold Decline During the U.S. – Iran Crisis? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

So, did U.S. and Iran just become best friends?

Gold’s huge reversal and a decline of about $50 in 24 hours might certainly suggest so to those, who choose to follow the news instead of estimating market’s moves using more reliable tools.

Of course, the two countries are not on friendly terms at this time. So, what happened that gold declined so much, so fast? Let’s start with going over what we explained yesterday as gold’s price action confirmed it so well.

Thursday, January 09, 2020

Is The Energy Sector Setting Up Another Great Entry? / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Another wild week for oil traders with missiles flying and huge overnight price swings in crude. As we recently pointed out within our current Oil research article, Oil and the Energy sector may be setting up for another great trade.  We recently commented on how the supply/demand situation for oil has changed over the past 20+ years. 

With US oil production near highs and a shift taking place toward electric and hybrid vehicles, the US and global demand for oil has fallen in recent years.  By our estimates, the two biggest factors keeping oil prices below $75 ppb are the shift by consumers across the globe to move towards more energy-efficient vehicles and the massive new supply capabilities within the US.

Wednesday, January 08, 2020

Gold Price at Resistance / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund discusses the effects of geopolitics on the price of gold. In this update I am not going to repeat the points made in the last fairly comprehensive update, instead we are going to focus on the importance of the resistance level just above where the price is now, and impact of the killing of the Iranian general and its potential implications for the gold price.

On the latest 10-year chart we can see that gold is making a second attack on the key major resistance level in the $1530-$1560 zone, which is hardly surprising considering what happened last week.

Wednesday, January 08, 2020

The All-Out View of Crude Oil’s Spike / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Let’s put the geopolitical gyrations in oil into a proper perspective by taking a look at the monthly chart. The overall situation hasn’t changed much as crude oil is still trading inside the blue consolidation below three very important resistances (the red and orange bearish gaps and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement), which form the key resistance zone for the coming week(s).

Wednesday, January 08, 2020

Gold 2020 - Financial Analysts and Major Financial Institutions Outlook / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Michael_J_Kosares

Santa Claus rally in Gold and Silver Crowns a very good year

It was a very good year for precious metals.  Gold posted a nearly 19% gain and silver rose over 17%.  As you can see in the chart below, the move higher began in early summer defying the annual summer doldrums, hit an impasse during autumn, then ended the year with a surprise Santa Claus rally that took it over the $1520 mark. Silver pushed briefly over the $18 mark in late December then settled at $17.78.  Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone offers a hopeful tone for our favorite precious metal as 2020 begins:

“It’s a new year and decade and gold is poised to follow the dollar and equities to new highs, in our view. When, should be the primary question, particularly when the stock market and greenback succumb to some normal mean reversion. Absent a new higher dollar and stock-price plateau, gold is set to join the all-time-highs club. Gold prices are on a sound footing for further advancement in the coming year and decade, in our view. Gold prices are on a sound footing for further advancement in the coming year and decade, in our view.”

Tuesday, January 07, 2020

Crude Oil Price Reverses Lower Again After US Missile Attack / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Normally, after tensions between Iran/Iraq and the US flare-up, Oil and Gold rally quite extensively but reversed sharply lower by the end of the session. 

Yes, Gold is 1% higher today and was up over $35 overnight, but Crude Oil has actually moved lower today which is a fairly strong indication that disruptions in oil supply from the Middle East are not as concerning as they were 10+ years ago. Traders and investors don’t believe this isolated targeted missile attack will result in any extended aggression between the US and Iran.

When past conflicts in the Middle East happened, Oil would typically rally and Gold would spike higher as well.  Consider this a reflex action to uncertain oil supply issues and concerns that global market uncertainty could crash the markets.  Gold seems like an easy expectation related to this type of uncertainty as it continues to act as a hedge against many risks like missiles/war, financial uncertainties etc…

Tuesday, January 07, 2020

Bullion Banks Used Paper Gold and Silver to Restrain Price Advance in 2019 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Gold and silver investors buy metals because they are scarce. Precious metals are by nature difficult to find, and hard to produce. Consequently, above ground stocks are limited and valuable, particularly when priced in unlimited fiat currencies.

The bankers and government officials behind these fiat currency systems don’t like stable monetary benchmarks such as gold putting their inflation schemes on full display. They absolutely hate that gold works as a refuge.

Inflation is a stealth tax. Instead of overtly raising taxes, politicians simply borrow and print the money needed for more government. They just need people not to notice.