Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Sunday, August 29, 2010
Gold Charts Don't Match Bullish Expectations of Commentators / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Too much verbal euphoria, not enough trading euphoria. As an old underground gold miner from long ago I remain somewhat of a gold bug BUT looking at the charts one must be very, very cautious here. The futures trading activity just doesn’t seems to match the expectations of many commentators at this point.
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Saturday, August 28, 2010
The Push for a Phony Gold Standard / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
At Davos in January of this year at a G20 meeting, President Sarkozy of France called for a new global reserve currency. At the 2009 meeting, Russian President Medvedev suggested a new reserve currency to replace the dollar. A Chinese central bank governor has supported a similar idea. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development wants to replace the dollar.
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Saturday, August 28, 2010
Investing in Gold, Finding Comfort in the Economic Downturn / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Most of the time, I am so freaked out that I spend most of the day in the Mogambo Bunker Of Paralyzing Fear (MBOPF), scared out of my mind at catastrophic ramifications of the economic stupidities that are being foisted upon us, like, for instance, increasing taxes in a recession! Gaaahhhhhh!
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Saturday, August 28, 2010
Gold Bullion Likely To Pullback Then Rocket Higher / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Back in latter June I forecasted a big top in Gold, mostly due to the 5 wave structures up from the October 2008 lows to June highs, and the 5 waves up from February lows to June highs converging. We then dropped from 1243 at the time of the forecast to $1155, which was one of my potential “A wave down” rally pivots. I expected a counter-trend rally or “B” wave up to 1212-1225. So, all of that worked out pretty well, until we hit $1238. Now, $1238 is a 78% Fibonacci re-tracement of the drop from $1265 to $1155. Normally, a re-tracement in a weaker market or sector is capped at 61.8% or 50%.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 28, 2010
What Does The Junior Gold Mining Sector Say about the Gold Price Next Move? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
With gold rising almost each day now, those of you, who are holding the yellow metal as a long-term investment are most likely happy with this situation. However, Speculators, and particularly Contrarians are probably waiting for the slightest sign of weakness in order to profit in the following correction. As we all know, no market - virtually regardless of the fundamental situation - moves in a given direction in a straight line.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 27, 2010
New Uncle Sam Gold Scam / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
David Galland, Partner, Casey Research writes: The latest data on global gold trends, Q2 2010, just popped into my email box from the World Gold Council.
The bad news is that the higher nominal price of gold has caused a 5% decrease in jewelry sales over the prior year.
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Friday, August 27, 2010
How to Own Physical and Paper Gold as Trend Continues Towards $1500 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Casey Research Senior Editor Louis James is very familiar with the gold market and with junior gold companies that have projects all over the world. In fact, he's visited many of the most promising ones. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Louis offers tips on how to own physical gold and "paper" gold, and even picks some junior gold and silver plays with significant potential.
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Friday, August 27, 2010
What Will Happen to Gold in a Double-Dip Recession? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
What is the likelihood of a Double-Dip Recession?
Nearly all the commentary we have heard on this question says the same. "Yes, the prospects of a Double-Dip recession have increased but it remains unlikely that it will happen". We feel that there may be just a hint of self-interest in these answers. The shockwaves that will reverberate should some say it is going to happen, or if the news confirmed that it had started would rattle the markets hugely.
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Friday, August 27, 2010
Gold Trading Quiet as Summer Ends, Big Surge Expected on Poor US Data / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
THE PRICE OF GOLD held flat early in London today, heading into the long August Bank Holiday weekend some 0.8% higher from last Friday's close against the Dollar, Euro and Sterling.
The Silver Price stood 5.7% up for the week, nearing its best weekly close since late-June.
Friday, August 27, 2010
Gold Close to New Record Highs, Investors On Sidelines Ahead of Bernanke Speech / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Markets participants are cautious ahead of Ben Bernanke’s speech which is expected to focus on the uncertain outlook for the US economy. Asian stock markets were mixed overnight and European indices are under pressure today. Investors continue to pile into government bonds and German Bund futures rose 14 ticks. The Yen and the British pound are slightly weaker today in tentative trading.
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Friday, August 27, 2010
Crude Oil Bearish Outlook / Commodities / Crude Oil
We wrote in early August of the pressures on oil – when the market was tested the resistance at the bottom of the Bear Rising Wedge in the weekly market. Even then we noted the ‘the coincident resistance of the parallel diagonals and the lower
diagonal of the wedge above the market’ which suggested important resistance at that level. Sure enough it was. Now, sixteen trading days later, the market is much lower yet looks set to fall still lower.
Friday, August 27, 2010
Proposing an Overnight Gold Fund / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
There is much debate within the precious metals industry regarding the alleged suppression, or at least manipulation to an extent, by either central banks or the proprietary trading divisions of large banks, or a combination of the two.
In April the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission CFTC fined Hedge Fund Moore Capital for manipulation of the New York platinum and palladium futures market, as the firm was found to be “banging the close”, which involves entering orders in a manner designed to inflate the closing price, which other various derivatives contracts could be based on. So that is irrefutable evidence that the precious metals futures market is, at least to some extent, being manipulated. However a large concentration of this debate is based not on platinum and palladium, but on gold and silver, and particularly gold.
Friday, August 27, 2010
Gold BIG Move Is Still To Come! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
In the big picture we think the gold and silver bull market has just started to warm up. It is not that we believe the ten year bull market has not been underway for a significant amount of time, but rather we believe the majority of the price appreciation is ahead and not behind us.
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Thursday, August 26, 2010
Gold Falls on Positive Jobs Number / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Gold is slightly lower while silver has risen again today after they rose 1% and 3% respectively yesterday as investors moved into the safety of AAA rated government bonds and the precious metals. Both gold and silver have remained firm in Asian and early European trading despite an increase in risk appetite as seen in the bounce in Asian and European equity markets. The fall in jobless claims has added to risk appetite and seen gold come under pressure, while silver remains firm. Some calm has returned to European sovereign debt markets after the successful Portuguese and Irish debt auctions. Government bonds have fallen in value after their recent rise and the increasing spreads between peripheral European economies and Germany have eased.
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Thursday, August 26, 2010
Silver Still Cheap After Dramatic Rally as Gold/Silver Ratio Forms Explosive Pattern / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
THE PRICE OF GOLD and silver touched new 8-week highs in London dealing on Thursday, while the Japanese Yen retreated further and developed-world stock markets extending yesterday's rally on Wall Street.
G7 bonds slipped back, nudging yields higher from this week's record lows.
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Gold Moves Closer to Record High / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Gold prices moved closer to its all-time high on Wednesday (August 25) despite relative firmness in the dollar. One ounce of gold currently fetches $1,238 in early evening New York Globex trade.
Gold closed Tuesday at $1,230.40 after a Monday close of $1,225.90. At one point in early morning New York NYMEX trade Tuesday, gold traded as low as $1,210.
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Thursday, August 26, 2010
How To Trade Gold and Silver’s Volatility / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Understanding the key differences between both gold and silver’s risk/volatility levels plays a large part in how I choose a low risk trade setup. Those of you who follow me already know the GLD etf is my favorite trading vehicle as it provides me with low risk trading setups along with a very high win rate.
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Thursday, August 26, 2010
China's Gold Demand: Saving, Not Spending / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
WHATEVER the reasons for China's massive household savings rate (Western economists blame the lack of social security, so you can guess their cure), the World Gold Council's Gold Demand Trends today showed private consumers putting ever-more money into physical gold.
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010
You'll Buy Gold Now and Like It When it Hits $6,214 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Jeff Clark, Casey's Gold & Resource Report writes: I get this question a lot: "Should I buy gold now, or wait for a pullback?"
It’s a valid question. For nearly two years, gold hasn't had a serious decline. There have been pullbacks, of course, but nothing assumption-challenging. In fact, since October 2008, gold’s largest price drop is 10.6% (based on London PM fix prices), and yet the average of all declines since 2001 is 13% (of those greater than 5%). The biggest pullback we've seen this summer is 8.2%. Technically the summer's not over, but I'll admit I'm surprised we haven't had a better buying opportunity.
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Gold and Silver Protection From Economic Cancer and Desperation of QE2 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
History is being made. The American public has never been no nervous, perhaps fearful of something dreadful and imminent. The global monetary system is crumbling. The typical stimulus has failed to jumpstart the USEconomy. The 20 months of near 0% short-term official interest rate has failed to revive the moribund US housing market. The phony FASB accounting rules has failed to accomplish anything except a stay of execution for the big US banks, which do not lend much. In fact, the US banks are largely dead entities showing enough life for to receive USGovt largesse aid. Witness the failure of the US financial sector. Witness the climax chapter of failure for the Fascist Business Model.
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