Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Sunday, February 28, 2010
Gold, Silver and HUI Forecast Charts / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
For gold, HUI, silver, and the U. S. Dollar Index two of the most important components of success are:
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Sunday, February 28, 2010
Gold Making Bearish Lower Highs and Lows / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
The daily gold trading information still does not give me great confidence that a new bull market is ahead. Lower highs and lower lows has been the pattern these past few months and needs to change.
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Sunday, February 28, 2010
Earthquake in Japanese Commodity Markets / Commodities / Commodities Trading
There has been some unusual action on the Japanese commodities markets that demands a comment.
I mentioned earlier this week that over the last two weeks the Japanese have revved up several new structured investment products tracking commodities.
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Sunday, February 28, 2010
Growing Environmental Concerns on U.S. Shale Oil and Gas Projects / Commodities / Crude Oil
Texas became the latest state to launch an environmental watchdog for energy development as a nonprofit group set its sights on the Barnett Shale drilling in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.
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Saturday, February 27, 2010
Gold and Silver, Correction/ Colsolidation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
"See it big, and keep it simple." ~ Wilferd A. Peterson
From high to Low Silver has dropped over 24%. From high to low Gold has so far shed only roughly 12%. Silver also did not take out its 2008 highs when Gold went on to put in a series of new all time highs. This is another massive intra market negative divergence signal and yet another reason to suggest that Gold could correct/consolidate for several months. On a positive note gold has held up remarkably well in the face of a very strong rally from the dollar. If it continues to hold up like this, then when the dollar rally finally fizzles out, one can expect gold to literally explode upwards.
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Saturday, February 27, 2010
Gold Stock Fractal Dreamin' On the Threshold / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
Looking for repetitive patterns, or fractals, in markets is something I enjoy. I know I need another hobby, but knowing what's happened in the past and what is possible based on historical precedents can help one to make speculative decisions and anticipate future movements. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't...Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 27, 2010
What Does Silver's Weakness Mean For Precious Metals Investors? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
This week the World Gold Council released their 2009 Gold Demand Trends report and embedded in the statistics were a few tidbits we found interesting.
Overall investment in gold was 7% higher in 2009 than 2008. This is significant when you take into account that demand in the fourth quarter of 2008, during one of the worst financial meltdowns we have ever known, was so great that there were global shortages of physical metal. Nevertheless, in 2009, at a time when fears of a global financial disaster have abated somewhat, investors still bought more gold than in 2008. In other words, more gold was purchased at higher prices when the markets were less terrifying, than when the prices were lower and fear was at its zenith.
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Saturday, February 27, 2010
Gold, Currency Crisis and Debt-liquidating Depression or a Hyperinflationary Blow-off / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
However the evolving global currency crisis ultimately manifests itself, either total deflation and a debt-liquidating depression or a hyperinflationary blow-off, David Morgan of The Morgan Report says "There's none better than gold—and silver is probably just as good—if you're worried about a crisis hedge." In the interim, David tells us in this exclusive Gold Report interview, the time might be right to build cash and watch the markets. He likes the old adage: when in doubt, stay out. But he also likes finding opportunities in undervalued and overlooked resource equities for speculative investments.
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Friday, February 26, 2010
Gold is De-coupling From the Dollar Euro Exchange Rate / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Further to our piece on the €:$ Exchange rate last issue, we have found that the topic, at last, is hitting mainstream. It is always difficult to be weaned off what you thought was a reliable formula giving you the inside track on the gold price. The oil: gold relationship was a case in point. Many tried to use it as a measure of the next gold price. But in the case of the €:$ exchange rate dictating the direction of gold the consequences of following this line will shortly prove to be very expensive for Traders on COMEX and elsewhere.
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Friday, February 26, 2010
Global Gold Supply / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Last week the World Gold Council (WGC) released its highly-anticipated Gold Demand Trends (GDT) report for Q4 and full-year 2009. GDT reports contain analysis of independent data compiled by GFMS Limited detailing supply and demand trends in the global gold market. They are jam-packed with key fundamental reads that undergird gold’s secular bull.
Generally only select groups of industry stakeholders and traders are the ones who anticipate these reports. Most people couldn’t care less what they say, and if you mention WGC they’ll think you’re talking about golf. But with gold gaining mainstream popularity in recent years, GDT reports are now a lot more relevant.
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Friday, February 26, 2010
Gold Confirms 10-Year Bull Marketm Supported by Inflation and Low U.S. Interest Rates / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
THE WHOLESALE price of gold in Dollars held steady on the release of new US economic data Friday morning, nearing February's monthly close some 2.8% above January's finish and confirming the last 10 year's pattern of never falling for more than two months running.
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Friday, February 26, 2010
Why Uranium Commodity Price Rise is Inevitable / Commodities / Uranium
Chris Mayer writes: In the most recent issue of my Special Situations advisory, I showed my readers the most compelling resource investment around. I've spent the past month digging into this story and looking for the best opportunities. Here's what I've found.
The most compelling thing about uranium is probably best expressed in the chart below...
Friday, February 26, 2010
Investors Don't Count Out Old King Coal Yet / Commodities / Coal
Siddharth Rajeev, vice president of research for Fundamental Research Corp., talks about several of the bright spots he sees on the economic horizon in this exclusive interview with The Energy Report. Sid anticipates: recovery in 2010, with rising interest rates by the end of the year. . .longer-term growth in demand for uranium, which this year's commodity corrections somehow managed to overlook. . .continuing strength for rare earth metals as applications expand in electronics and alternative energy. . .even new faces on the coal front. Despite the push toward clean energy, Sid says coal won't go away anytime soon. One of the cheapest sources of fossil fuels in abundant supply, he says that coal is "tough to replace."
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Thursday, February 25, 2010
Gold, the IMF, and Dirty Jokes / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Jeff Clark, Casey’s Gold & Resource Report writes: How many IMF officials does it take to change a light bulb?
As you probably read, the International Monetary Fund announced they would proceed with selling the remaining 191.3 tonnes of gold from the 403.3 tonnes planned. The money is to be used for lending to poor countries. Lending implies the money will be repaid, which, in the case of the IMF, is a joke that isn’t funny. But that’s a topic for another day.
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Thursday, February 25, 2010
Gold GLD Outperforming Gold Mining Stocks GDX / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Gold -- the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) and the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) -- have turned positive this morning, in the aftermath of intense selling pressure earlier in the session. This is a sign of meaningful relative strength in the sector, but the day is young yet.
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Thursday, February 25, 2010
Making Some Sense of Today's Gold Price Trend / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
It's been about eight days since we did a video on gold, and given the market action today I thought I would look at what is causing the downward pressure in this market.
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Thursday, February 25, 2010
Gold Prices "Subduing Demand" as Euro and S&P Correlations Slip / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
THE PRICE OF GOLD dropped to a near-two week low early Thursday in London, dipping below $1090 an ounce as the US Dollar rose vs. the Euro, crude oil held flat, and world stock markets slipped.
"Yesterday saw a new divergence in the Gold/Euro correlation," says one London dealer in a note after the Euro rose in Wednesday's trade but gold priced in Dollars fell.
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Bears Still a Threat in EUA Carbon Emissions Trading / Commodities / Climate Change
A marked consolidation has been unfolding in the EUA (ICE ECX) contract, displaying a slow downward bias. So far bears have been unable to develop this more in their favour, but, now, they have another chance – will they take it?
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Thursday, February 25, 2010
Bull Market Geniuses, Did You Sell GLD, GDX, SLV? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Ok, this one is for all you bull market geniuses out there who have been buying the SPDR Gold Trust (symbol: GLD), the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (symbol: GDX), and the i-Shares Silver Trust (symbol: SLV) all the way down and since they peaked in mid January.
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Thursday, February 25, 2010
Oil Prices Climb After Bernanke Speaks of Low Interest Rates / Commodities / Crude Oil
The dollar has been firming up in the last several weeks, thanks in large part to growing expectations of a tighter monetary policy leading to higher interest rates. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke tried to reassure Americans and quash some of those assumptions with his comments to Congress about the economy Wednesday (February 24).
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