Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Gold Strongest Market of 2009, Even Central Banks are Buying / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
There is only one market making new highs – gold. Stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, whatever, are nowhere near gold’s level. Gold is the strongest of the strong. Central banks are starting to buy it, as evidenced by India’s recent purchase. Russia and China plan to buy more to hold as reserves.
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Monday, November 09, 2009
Gold and Cadillacs / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
While gold is not commonly considered as a medium of exchange like paper currency, it still acts as an excellent store of value. On August 15, 1971 the so-called "gold window" was closed. Previously, the US dollar was redeemable by non-Americans at a rate of US$35 per troy ounce. Shortly after this event, General Motors came out with a new version of the Cadillac Eldorado - the longest running American personal luxury car.
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Monday, November 09, 2009
Incompetent Central Banks Gold Invest by Selling Low and Buying High / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Wow, the light bulb finally went on last week. Perhaps we have never truly understood investing. Bank of England in the 1990s was selling Gold as it plunged to below $300. Now, with Gold soaring above US$1,000, the Reserve Bank of India is buying. The trick is to apparently sell low and buy high. We always thought it went the other way. But we do note a distinct difference in this pattern from buying high and then selling low. If only central bankers had revealed this secret of high level investing earlier, how much happier we all would have been.
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Monday, November 09, 2009
Volume Telling the Tale for Metals and Resource Stocks / Commodities / Metals & Mining
India’s central bank taking 200 tonnes (6.4 million oz) of gold from the IMF in an off market trade has certainly lit a fire under the yellow metal. While a trade of that nature was anticipated, India, which is about the savviest of commercial gold players, was not atop the expected buyers’ list. Given the greenback was steady and that gold’s chart went near vertical when the overnight rumor became official, it is likely that the big long position that came into the market forced some covering on the short side. Is this more than a spike?Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 09, 2009
India-IMF Deal a Tipping Point for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Has a new floor been set at $1,000 per ounce?
India’s deal to buy 200 metric tons (6.4 million troy ounces) of gold from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is a huge deal – not just the fact that the New Delhi government is handing over $6.7 billion for the metal, but what it may mean for gold going forward.
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Monday, November 09, 2009
Crude Oil in Bullish Pattern, though Comparison to U.S. Dollar Warrants Caution / Commodities / Crude Oil
Although oil prices are up about $1/bbl this morning, given the juxtaposition of the dollar index pressing against its October low (see our comparison chart of oil and the dollar), a holder of long positions in oil and the US Oil Fund ETF (NYSE: USO) could be disappointed.
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Monday, November 09, 2009
Gold Another New Record High as IMF Overvalued Statement Hits U.S. Dollar / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
THE PRICE OF GOLD jumped to new all-time Dollar records for the third time in four trading days early Monday in London, trading above $1110 an ounce – up more than 27% for 2009 to date – as the US currency fell hard on the forex market.
World stocks added 0.4% on the MSCI index to continue their four-month surge after Sunday's meeting of G20 political leaders in Scotland vowed to "continue to provide support for the economy until the recovery is assured."
Monday, November 09, 2009
The Day the Bears Lost Control of Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
In was another incredible month as gold continued to outshine all other major investment themes by being the only investment that has broken out to new highs since the global meltdown of 2008. Not only is gold making new highs (1100 this week), it is doing so in a fashion that accelerated the price this week in terms of velocity, momentum, volume, and daily price range. Even the pullbacks are chart bullish recently as the best the bears can do is get gold to consolidate and trade sideways for three or four days and then gold moves up again.
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Monday, November 09, 2009
Gold Trends Above $1,100 As Dollar Falls / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Gold has experienced yet another strong opening this morning and ventures deeper into unchartered territory. Currently trading at $1,109/oz - $14 higher than its closing last Friday - at this price gold sets a new all time high in USD terms. In EUR and GBP terms gold is trading at €739/oz and £658/oz respectively.
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Monday, November 09, 2009
Compound Your Way To Wealth With Commodity Tradin / Commodities / Commodities Trading
I have had countless conversations with investors and even institutional investors that do not believe that commodity trading and trend following can compound ones money to wealth. Besides the fact that only trend following and commodity trading are the most liquid, the most transparent and most highly regulated industries the common belief commodity trading is risky. Well the truth is, everything is risky. Even staying in cash these days is risky.
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Monday, November 09, 2009
Marc Faber Says Gold May Drop to $800 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Marc Faber the Swiss fund manager and Gloom Boom & Doom editor said he has some short-term concerns about commodity prices including gold. He is also reluctant to invest in bonds.
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Monday, November 09, 2009
Big Profits Still in Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
On November 4, gold pulled back to $1025, and that was the turn. It gained 75 points over the next 6 days, including a 30 day whopper when India bought 200 tonnes of gold from the IMF. On Friday, $1100 was breached (interday on the Comex, Dec. future).
Is it too late to become a gold bug? Are you one of those who did not listen to the one-handed economist? Worse, did you fly to “safety” in the U.S. dollar? Are you thinking, “Is it too late to buy?” The answer is in the chart above.
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Monday, November 09, 2009
Commodity Report for Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and Natural Gas / Commodities / Commodities Trading
Everyone is talking about commodities as the place to be in the coming months. I tend to agree, but it is still important to know where each commodity is trading to maximize returns and reduce risk.
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Sunday, November 08, 2009
Silver Overhanging Supply Preventing Breakout Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Whereas gold has forged ahead to new highs in recent weeks, silver has got bogged down working off overhanging supply, which is the price it is paying for having dropped like a rock last year, so that even though it has risen proportionally more than gold this year, it had so much ground to make up that it still hasn't broken out to new highs.
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Sunday, November 08, 2009
Gold Bull Market Target Revised Higher to $1400 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Last week gold's major new uptrend became established when following a successful test of support at the breakout point it advanced to new highs, indifferent to temporary dollar strength. The new uptrend is expected to be at least of similar magnitude and duration to the great uptrends of 2005 - 2006 and 2007 - 2008 and if it is we are looking at very significant gains over the intermediate-term, which is certainly suggested by the recent powerful breakouts of many junior mining stocks.
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Friday, November 06, 2009
U.S. Dollar Tops, while Precious Metal Stocks Bottom / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
There’s More to Seasonality Than Summer Doldrums - This has surely been an exciting week for gold and silver investors. The post-Halloween rally that I mentioned in the previous Premium Update, took metals and corresponding stocks substantially higher, and gold itself reached new highs – at least in nominal terms. The mainstream media are now reporting gold-related stories on a big scale and „gold prices“ is the second most often searched for phrase on http://finance.yahoo.com.
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Friday, November 06, 2009
Will Russia Really Sell Gold or Keep Buying? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Russia’s central bank has bought 180 tonnes since June 2006 and another Russian Agency holds off selling 50 tonnes. What’s going on?
It takes a long time to buy useful quantities of gold in the ‘open’ market. It has taken Russia over 3 years to buy 180 tonnes there. We imagine that they set price limits on their buying. This meant they bought more in one month than in the next, as the gold came onto the market. There is no reason to believe that that policy has changed.
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Friday, November 06, 2009
Gold New Global All Time Highs Across Top 10 Currencies / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
The official bid for gold, let alone private-sector demand, looks likely to hold strong...
GOLD didn't only break new Dollar highs this week.
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Friday, November 06, 2009
Gold Breaks $1,100 New High / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
In afternoon trading on Friday the gold price momentarily breached the $1,100 an ounce level for the first time. Although its time at this level was brief it concluded what has been a very bullish week for gold.The bullish sentiment towards the yellow metal has been built on a very strong base. Central banks have underpinned the price with revelations during the week that the Reserve Bank of India has become a sizeable holder of gold, buying 200 tonnes.
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Friday, November 06, 2009
SPX Stock Market and HUI Gold Stocks Pullbacks / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
After India’s central bank gobbled up half of the gold (200 metric tons) the IMF recently offered for sale, gold surged 2.4% on Tuesday to a new all-time nominal high near $1085. Naturally traders flooded into the gold stocks to leverage such an exciting day, driving the flagship HUI gold-stock index up by 8.0%.
Although this surge was certainly fun, considered in context its results were disappointing. Believe it or not, in the hyper-volatile HUI an 8% up day isn’t very rare. There was a 9%+ one in early September and a 7% one in early October. Considering gold rallied $25 in a single day and exceeded its old record by $21, the HUI ought to have done much better on Tuesday.
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