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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Sunday, November 04, 2018

Gold Price Sets Up For A November 2018 Rally To Near $1300 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Today’s upside price move in gold, already up over $18 (+1.5%), sets up a real potential for a move to near $1300 before the end of November.  We have been advising our followers that a strong potential for an upside move in the precious metals markets was likely and that a potential move to above $1300 was in the works prior to the end of 2018.

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Commodities

Saturday, November 03, 2018

Silver Bottoming Almost Complete / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Hubert_Moolman

The current silver bottoming process is very similar to that of 2001 to 2003. It took a while for silver to establish a base which set up the bull rally in the following years to 2011.

The current bottoming has been longer, but it fits the profile of the early 2000 bottom in many respects. Below, is a chart which show the similarity:

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Commodities

Saturday, November 03, 2018

Palladium Technical Analysis Price Forecast / Commodities / Palladium

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This a technical look at the prospects for the Palladium price. This analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work. So to get immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Commodities

Friday, November 02, 2018

Trump Is Not Thrilled. But What about Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Trump is going to influence the US monetary policy or even to destroy the Fed’s independence. This is what many analysts say after the recent President’s comments. But are they right? We invite you to read our careful examination of Trump’s remarks about the Fed’s policy and find out what does it imply for the independence of the US central bank and the gold market.

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Commodities

Friday, November 02, 2018

Iron Lady of Europe Quits. Will Gold Replace Her? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

On Thursday, Mr. Draghi held a press conference. But the real thunderbolt hit on Monday, when Ms. Merkel announced that she would step down this year as a leader of her conservative party. Will that lighting make gold shine?

Draghi Says That We Shouldn’t Worry

Let’s start with the latest ECB’s monetary policy statement and the following Draghi’s press conference. In short, the ECB kept its monetary policy unchanged, which means that the European quantitative easing will end in December 2018. Given a somewhat weaker economic momentum in the euro area and the turmoil in Italy, the lack of any changes might seem to be rather hawkish. However, the expansion of the euro area economy continues, while inflation pressure is gradually rising. According to Draghi, we should not worry about the weaker momentum, as “it’s simply that we're having growth returning to potential after 2017, where it was clearly above potential.”

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Commodities

Friday, November 02, 2018

Win Big in Gold and Silver without “Buying the Bottom” / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Last month in this space, I penned an essay titled "Are Silver and Gold 'at the Flood'"?. A few weeks later, two other essays on another widely-read site discussed this topic from the same perspective and sourcing – a case of "great minds thinking along similar lines"?

Please take time to read or review that Money Metals Exchange Post of August 28.

I made the case of a misalignment in the precious metals' markets regarding price versus value which had become so pronounced that – in the near term – an explosive change in trend catching most participants by surprise was pretty much baked into the cake.

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Commodities

Sunday, October 28, 2018

Gold Stocks Will Benefit From Cyclical Change / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

As we have noted over the many years of the gold sector’s bear market, the gold miners will not rally for real until the real sector and macro fundamentals come into place. Those fundamentals do not include commonly promoted inflation, China/India “love” trades, a US dollar collapse or especially, war, pestilence or any other human misery than economic. The more astute gold bugs do not fall for that.

The gold miners are counter-cyclical as they leverage gold’s performance (whether positive or negative) relative to cyclical assets and markets. Hence the handy picture showing the key fundamental items with the 4 largest planets orbiting the golden sun being the most important.

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Commodities

Saturday, October 27, 2018

Gold Upleg Fuel Abounds / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold and its miners’ stocks have proven rare bastions of strength during recent weeks’ market carnage.  They are powering considerably higher while nearly everything else burns.  The markets’ major sentiment shift is accelerating a young gold upleg, which ought to grow much larger as speculators and investors continue returning.  Their collective gold positioning remains very low, making for abundant gold upleg fuel.

October’s outperformance by gold and gold stocks has been impressive.  As of Wednesday, the flagship US S&P 500 broad-market stock index had plunged 8.8% month-to-date.  That heavy selling was led by the market-darling mega tech stocks, pummeling the NASDAQ down 11.7% MTD!  Stock investors are starting to pay the piper for getting far too complacent in bubble-valued markets, the reckoning is underway.

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Commodities

Friday, October 26, 2018

Stronger Dollar is Bullish Catalyst for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The US$ index is breaking higher. Its trading at 96.41 as we pen this.

A daily close above 96.61 marks a new 52-week high and puts the dollar in position to eventually retest its bull market high at 104.

If this strength continues then the relief rally in precious metals could be over.

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Commodities

Thursday, October 25, 2018

Rome vs Brussels. Will That Battle Benefit Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Only one digit has changed. But it may have profound consequences, sending the country closer to junk status. Meanwhile, Rome and Brussels clash over budget plan. Will that duel benefit or harm the yellow metal?

Only One Notch Above Being Junk

Italian drama continues. On Friday, Moody’s, one of the most significant rating agencies in the world, downgraded the Italian credit rating from Baa2 to Baa3. It means that Italy’s local and foreign-currency bonds are now only one notch above junk territory. The move was not surprising, as well as the reasons behind this decision:

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Commodities

Thursday, October 25, 2018

U.S. Shale Oil Has A Glaring Problem / Commodities / Shale Oil and Gas

By: OilPrice_Com

Oil prices are down a bit, but are still close to multi-year highs. That should leave the shale industry flush with cash. However, a long list of U.S. shale companies are still struggling to turn a profit.

A new report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) and the Sightline Institute detail the "alarming volumes of red ink" within the shale industry.

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 24, 2018

Sentiment Is The Most Important Factor To Focus On in Gold Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

I have now been a contributor at Seeking Alpha for seven years, during which time I have written for approximately six years, as I took a one-year hiatus. And, during that time, I have had the honor of penning almost 400 articles.

During the six years I have been actively writing on Seeking Alpha, 30,000 of you have trusted me enough to begin following my work, as I just hit the 30,000-follower mark. For that I am very grateful, honored and humbled. So, I wanted to first thank you all.

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Commodities

Sunday, October 21, 2018

Gold Stocks Sentiment Shifting / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have been largely ignored and neglected for years.  Speculators and investors wanted little to do with them for various reasons.  But that apathetic sentiment is finally starting to shift thanks to last week’s stock-market plunge.  Capital is starting to return to this battered sector as traders begin to realize how radically undervalued it is.  Sentiment mean reversions can catapult gold stocks far higher.

Sentiment is defined as “a thought, view, or attitude, especially one based mainly on emotion instead of reason”.  We humans are inherently-emotional creatures riddled with sentiment on almost everything.  That’s especially true in our perceptions of the financial markets, which heavily influence if not dominate our trading decisions.  We buy and sell stocks when it feels good, when markets appear to validate our outlooks.

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Commodities

Saturday, October 20, 2018

The Incredibly Bullish Set-Up for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses the bullish set-up for gold and why he believes this time is different. For the first time in months, Fido the Wonder Dog has been in my office and at the foot of my bed 24/7 for the past few days giving me great solace that the current advance in precious metals prices is here to stay. Gone are his nervous tics every time my chair squeaks or when I give a little "Whoop-whoop!" at the sight of decent gold quote and most certainly absent are all of the caked mudballs in his fur from having to sleep (hide) under the tool shed.

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Commodities

Saturday, October 20, 2018

Checking Gold Stocks Valuations / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

It’s no secret that gold mining stocks are historically cheap and have been for several years.

Traditional metrics like price to cash flow and price to book value showed that gold stocks in late 2015 were at arguably their cheapest points since the start of the bull market in the 1960s.

Other metrics showed gold stocks to be the cheapest since the Roosevelt administration.

It has been almost a year since we examined some of these charts and with the sector moving closer to another epic low, we wanted an update.

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Commodities

Friday, October 19, 2018

Gold Would Not Enjoy That FOMC Is Going More Restrictive / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

“Policy would need to become modestly restrictive for a time.” This is the key quote from the recent FOMC minutes. This is not a reason for gold’s joy.

Fed Is Becoming More Hawkish

Yesterday, the Fed released minutes from the recent FOMC meeting. As everyone knows, the Committee hiked interest rates by another 25 basis points in September. But what about the future stance? Well, the minutes signal that the FOMC is going to be more hawkish in the near future (as we have been warning for some time). The key paragraph is as follows:

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Commodities

Thursday, October 18, 2018

Determining the Outlook for Gold Mining Stock / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold miners completed the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern – it’s now a fact. And many analysts would have one believe that it’s the only fact that matters right now or that it’s of major importance. But just like focusing on one tree can make one miss the entire forest behind it, the above could make the entire precious metals outlook appear different than it really is. There are multiple factors in place and we will not cover all of them in this essay, but even in case of the mining stocks, there are many factors that gold promoters and those who put a lot of weight in the inverse H&S pattern in mining stocks, are usually not mentioning in their analyses. We’ll discuss some of those factors below.

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Commodities

Thursday, October 18, 2018

Global Warming (Assuming You Believe In It) Does Not Affect Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

When the market, represented by SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:GLD), broke down below 117.40, and then followed below the next support in the 114 region, we were hyper-focused on the 109 region. Thus far, that is where GLD has bottomed out (in overnight action). From there, we were expecting a rally, and the market has not disappointed.

For the last two weeks, I have been outlining how the metals complex was bottoming out and setting up to rally to a minimum target of 116.25 in the GLD. But, if you read my analysis carefully, you would know that I am viewing this rally as a corrective rally, until the market is able to prove otherwise.

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Silver's Time Is Coming / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund charts silver and discusses the factors that he believes will lead silver upward.

Unlike gold and precious metals stocks, silver did not break out strongly on Thursday – although it rose, it did not break out at all, nor was volume exceptional, as we can see on its latest 6-month chart below. However, this is not a cause for concern, because in the early stages of sector bull markets gold leads, so we can expect silver to "follow suit" shortly. This is worth knowing, because it means that it is still possible to pick up a lot of silver stocks (and ETFs) at knock down silly prices before it really starts to move.

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Gold 7-Year Bear Market Phase Is Over / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund uses charts to explain why he believes the gold bear market is over. Thursday was a momentous day for the precious metals sector with gold, GDX and other índices, and giant gold ETF, GLD all breaking out on impressive volume, and this development was all the more extraordinary because it happened when the broad stock market was crashing. This is viewed as a strong sign that instead of being dragged lower still by a crashing stock market, the precious metals sector will soar. Silver hasn’t broken out yet, but it should soon follow suit.

In recent weeks we have been wary that, despite highly favorable COTs and Hedgers charts and rotten sentiment indicators, etc,. a general asset liquidation might drag the precious metals sector even further down, but Thursday's extraordinarily positive action by the sector serves to allay those fears. Of course, it's not hard to see why the precious metals sector might do the opposite to what it did back in 2008 when the market crashed, and it nosedived too. There are two very big differences this time. One is that, before the 2008 crash, the precious metals sector was actually quite elevated. That is in marked contrast to now where it is beaten into the ground with sentiment in the basement – basically it is so unloved and neglected that the only way is up. The other big difference between now and 2008 is that while a major asset liquidation cycle will result in a flight to cash that could drive the dollar significantly higher, beyond that the longer-term outlook for the dollar is grim, with much of the rest of the world, tired of U.S. bullying in the form of sanctions, military threats, and now trade wars, and its unquestioning support of rogue states like Saudi Arabia and Israel, committed to freeing themselves from dollar hegemony – and plans in this direction are now well advanced, with countries like China and Russia having built up big gold reserves that can at some point be used to back their currencies, and workable substitutes for the SWIFT payments system at the trial run phase. Subjected to continuous provocation, China may at some point decide to go for the "nuclear option" and dump its huge Treasury hoard, sending the Treasury market reeling and interest rates skyrocketing, which will cause the US economy to buckle and implode – the U.S. appears to be overlooking that China has this power.

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