Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Friday, June 21, 2019
Gold Bull Market Breaking Out! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
Gold finally surged to new bull-market highs this week! Several years after its last bull high, gold punched through vexing resistance after the Fed continued capitulating on ever normalizing. This huge milestone changes everything for gold and its miners’ stocks, unleashing new-high psychology fueling self-feeding buying. With speculators not yet all-in and investors wildly underdeployed, gold has room to power much higher.
Gold momentum has certainly been building for a major upside breakout. Back in mid-April with gold still near $1300, I wrote an essay describing the “Gold-Bull Breakout Potential” and why it was finally coming. Then a couple weeks ago with gold in the $1330s, I published another one analyzing “Gold Surges Near Breakout”. For several years higher lows had slowly compressed gold ever closer to surging over resistance.
Today’s gold bull was first born back in mid-December 2015 the day after the Fed’s initial rate hike in its just-abandoned tightening cycle. Gold’s maiden upleg was massive, rocketing 29.9% higher in just 6.7 months to $1365 in early July 2016! But that first high-water mark has proven impregnable over the 3.0 years since. Gold tried and failed to break out in 2017, 2018, and 2019, repelled near a $1350 Maginot Line.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 21, 2019
Post-FOMC Commentary: Delusions of Grandeur / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
Sector expert Michael Ballanger reacts to today's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. To the surprise of the many and the chagrin of the few, the Fed opted to do nothing with policy today and left rates unchanged despite clarion calls for a cut. As I wrote about earlier, there was (and is) zero rationale for a rate cut, what with GDP humming along and the best employment numbers in fifty years (if you believe them). Stocks moved higher despite several attempts at profit-taking, but that was no surprise because the Fed wanted to make damn certain the response to the statement and the ensuing presser would be a positive outcome.
The victims were bond yields (lower) and the U.S. dollar (lower), but the S&P rose 8.71 (0.30%), while gold had at its highest close for 2019 at $1,364.45. The lower U.S. dollar contributed to the advance in the metals, but we are still caught in a resistance quagmire between $1,350 and $1,375, with the relative strength index (RSI) screaming "Overbought!" after an $80 advance.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 21, 2019
Gold Scores Gains as Draghi and Powel Grow Concerned / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
Super Mario delivered a surprisingly dovish speech. But he was shortly outshined by Super Jerome. Both key central banks have sent new signals to the markets for interpretation. Let’s read the tea leaves and make sense of the initial reaction in the gold market.
Draghi Repeats ‘Whatever it Takes’ In a Mini Version
As we covered one week ago in the Gold News Monitor, the ECB became more dovish on the June monetary policy meeting. The central bank postponed the possible beginning of the interest rate hiking from the end of 2019 to the mid-2020.
Our assessment was that “the European central bankers are getting more worried about the state of the Eurozone economy and may adopt an even more dovish stance in the near future.” It turned out we were right. We did not have to wait too long for a more forceful signal from the ECB. On Tuesday, Mario Draghi delivered a mini ‘whatever it takes’ speech at the annual conference in Sintra, Portugal. He said:
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 21, 2019
Potential Upside Targets for Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
Gold has finally broken out to the upside.
In Asia trading on Thursday, Gold exploded through the $1360 to $1370 resistance zone and was able to hold the gains throughout the day, closing above $1395/oz.
As we pen this article, Gold has to chance to break $1400/oz by the weekend. The close of the month (and quarter) next week will provide an additional clue as to the sustainability of this strength.
The gold stocks meanwhile have been on an absolute tear. GDX is up 16 of the past 17 trading days and has gained 23% over that period. GDXJ is up 13 of the past 17 sessions and has also gained 23% during that period.
GDX closed right at resistance at $25. It could blow through it and reach a multi-year high at $27 or it could first correct and consolidate around $25.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 21, 2019
Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
This is the final article in this Gold analysis series that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold price into Late September 2019 :
- Current State
- Trend Analysis, MACD, Trend Channels Support / Resistance
- Seasonal Analysis
- US Dollar / Gold
- Gold Price Trend Forecast Conclusion
- Gold Stocks
Friday, June 21, 2019
Gold Bus has left the Station / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
Surf City has several seats on the Bus. Do you?
Summary: Gold closed at $1348 today according to Stockcharts but is now much higher at $1365 as I write this update. My two longer-term weekly charts on GLD show the potential for a massive upside breakout where price could really run hard & fast. My first chart is a 6 Year weekly showing a massive inverse Head & shoulders pattern that is ready to bust out to the upside of the inverse neckline. Remember that the bigger the pattern in Time, the more powerful the Breakout potential. My second chart is a 2 year weekly showing a large “Cup & Handle” pattern, which is another bullish structure where price could really run.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 21, 2019
The Gold (and Silver) Volcano Is Ready to Erupt / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
In March 1980, the University of Washington installed a seismograph system designed to monitor earthquake activity in the Cascades, with a focus on increased seismic activity around Mount St. Helens.
Starting just a few days later, a series of earthquakes, small eruptions, and steam releases took place. Near the end of the month, the peak of the mountain started to open up.
But this was only the beginning. For the next six weeks, small eruptions alternated with intermittent quiet periods. But beneath the surface, liquid magma was forcing its way upward, creating intense pressure.
Thursday, June 20, 2019
US Dollar vs Gold Trend Analysis - Video / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
This is my fourth video in this series that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold Price into September 2019.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 20, 2019
Silver Medium-Term Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
The medium-term chart shows early signs of Silver changing trend by attempting to end it's multi-year downtrend by making a higher high of $16.20 and higher low of $14,27. A break above $16.20 would lift Silver into a new trading range of $18 and $16.20. Which if it happens will mean we won't revisit the $14.00 area for some time. So with Silver currently trading at $14.74 then time may be running out to accumulate Silver at a sub $15 price.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 20, 2019
Gold Mining Stocks Waiting on This Chart / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
It’s not a chart of nominal HUI with upside technical targets. We’ll do that in NFTRH this weekend, along with the usual individual miners. Rather, it’s a companion to other charts we’ve been reviewing over the last several months showing the under valuation of the gold stock sector relative to gold’s performance vs. cyclical assets/markets. For example, gold has risen strongly vs. the CRB index and that is a sector fundamental under valuation.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 20, 2019
A Key Gold Bull Market Signal / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
The gold market is looking a lot like it did early in the millennium, at the start of the bull market. It is setting up for a gold bull market that is likely to be way more intense than the previous one, due to the structural weaknesses incurred by the monetary system since then.
Debt levels, for example, have grown significantly since the early 2000s. US Goverment debts (Federal debt) as a percentage of GDP has grown from 55% in 2000 to 105% today.
There will soon be significant market movements to compensate for the unsustainable debt levels. If your debt levels are becoming too high, at some point your credit rating will be affected to the extent that lenders will require higher interest rates and/or they will refuse to provide you any credit. This is true whether you are an individual or a nation state.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 18, 2019
Gold Golden 'Moment of Truth' Is Upon Us: $1,400-Plus or Not? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
With the precious metals markets range-bound and driven by forces beyond his control, sector expert Michael Ballanger turns his contrarian eye to the past. With gold enjoying its best week of the year, with the Daily Sentiment Index charging northward, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pressing 72 for the GLD, with the RSI for GDX pushing 75, and finally, with the newsletter community all falling on top of themselves with self-laudatory backslaps, I think it is time to adopt the contrarian view and step back.
It was less than five weeks ago, with gold and the miners all coming off sharply oversold conditions (RSI in the mid-high 30s), that I wrote that "carpe diem" in reference to ownership of GLD calls and my two favorite leveraged miners, NUGT and JNUG. Sure enough, JNUG has moved from $6.50 to $9.50 and NUGT from $14.50 to $22.10, while the GLD July $120 calls rocketed from $2.20 to $7.60. (Note: I did not get "top tick" for any of them, but did bank yet another decent 40% return on the miners, and a double and a half on the GLD calls).
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 18, 2019
Exceptional Times for Gold Warrant Special Attention / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
Technical analyst Clive Maund charts gold and explains why he believes this is a good time to build positions.
With things shaping up so well for gold, we can certainly take any short-term correction in our stride, and more than that, we can seize upon it as an opportunity to build positions further across the sector, whether by means of ETFs, stocks or options, and of course, gold itself.
Several factors suggest that a modest short-term correction is likely before the major breakout occurs. Gold is overbought after its recent run-up and is rounding over beneath the major resistance approaching $1400, as we can see on its latest 6-month chart below. Thus, the appearance of a short-term bearish "shooting star" candlestick on its chart on Friday coupled with its latest COTs showing Commercial short and Large Spec long positions hitting rather extreme levels suggests that it is likely to react back over the next week or two to allow things to cool for a bit before the major breakout occurs. The current COT structure IS NOT regarded as bearish overall, because we would expect speculators to pile in at the start of a big move—positions can be expected to get much more extreme once the big breakout occurs, flying off the charts and staying high as the first major upleg of the new bull market unfolds.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 18, 2019
Gold Awaits the FOMC as Economic Data Send Mixed Signals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
Who wouldn’t know the Spaghetti Western The Good, the Bad and the Ugly? In today’s analysis, we have important pieces of economic data starring in the first two roles. Retail sales and industrial production rebounded in May, while the Empire State Index plummeted in June. How will these reports affect tomorrow’s FOMC decision and the gold market?
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 18, 2019
Silver Long-Term Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
What stands out from the long-term chart is that Silver tends to be pretty much dead for most of the time, only really coming alive towards the later stages of precious metals bull market manias when everyone begins piling in just before the bubble pops! Which is a warning not to get carried away with fantasy targets for Silver but try and keep things real by focusing on what silver has done in the past, namely the Silver price cap is $50.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 18, 2019
These Two Charts Virtually Scream “Buy Silver” / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
The Amount of Dollars in Existence
Silver is currently trading around $14.84 an ounce. This is around 30% of its 1980 all-time high of $50. However, this is an incomplete representation of what silver is really trading at, relative to US dollars.
When you look at the silver price, relative to US currency (the amount of actual US dollars) in existence, then it is at its lowest value it has ever been (see chart below).
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 18, 2019
Gold and Silver Reversals – Impossible Not to Notice / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
What a remarkable day Friday has been! Going into the U.S. session open, we have seen gold challenging its early-June highs. The barrage of geopolitical news has been deafening and gold had literally nowhere to go but up. But something “unexpected” yet totally predictable happened to those who have jumped on the gold bandwagon. Friday’s U.S. session has sent gold lower. On huge volume. And not only gold, that is. Those looking at the charts’ bigger picture, those familiar with our analyses, hadn’t been surprised. Now that the dust is settled and gold pushes lower, let’s examine the aftermath. And draw lessons for the days ahead.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 17, 2019
Strap Yourselves In – Gold May Take Off Like A Rocketship / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
The last three years have been extremely difficult for metals enthusiast. If you speak with them, you would assume that gold has been going down for the last three years. Well, at least that is the impression you would get based upon their “sentiment.”
But, in fact, all gold has been doing for the last three years is move sideways. In other words, it has been consolidating. Yet, during that consolidation, sentiment among investors has soured to where it is akin to a bear market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 16, 2019
Gold Stocks Bull Upleg Mounting / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
The gold miners’ stocks have surged powerfully over the past few weeks, challenging upleg highs. Traders started returning to this small contrarian sector as gold blasted back above the psychologically-crucial $1300 line. While such early-summer strength is atypical, gold miners’ technicals, sentiment, and fundamentals all support more gains to come. Gold stocks need to mean revert to much-higher price levels.
Traders usually track gold-stock fortunes with this sector’s most-popular exchange-traded fund, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. Launched in May 2006, this was the maiden gold-stock ETF. That big first-mover advantage has helped propel GDX to sector dominance. This week its net assets of $9.7b ran 46.5x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF! GDX is this sector’s leading benchmark.
And it sure didn’t look pretty in May, with traders wanting nothing to do with gold stocks. GDX spent the great majority of last month languishing near its 200-day moving average. Just a few weeks ago on May 29th, GDX closed at $20.42. That was down 3.2% year-to-date, much worse than gold’s own slight 0.2% YTD decline. The gold stocks were really out of favor, just like the metal they mine which fuels their profits.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 16, 2019
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - Video / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
This is my third video in this series that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold Price into September 2019.
SEASONAL ANALYSIS
Read full article... Read full article...