Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Grain Exporting Countries of Africa to Mirror Crude Oil OPEC Boom / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: John_Mauldin
What countries are truly the have and have nots of the world? Good friend and business partner Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners suggests we look at the old equation in a new way? Food and energy resources may be at least part of the definition in the future. In this week's Outside the Box we continue a them I mentioned a few weeks ago: agricultural needs are going to be a new and important force in the world and when coupled with energy may shift the balance of power in the world in strange a different ways.
When, as Niels points out, Afghanistan poppy farmers are shifting to wheat farming, the world is truly a different place. I think you will find the research he has done to be truly worth a few minutes of your thinking time.
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Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Inflation Deflation Chaotic Trend Towards Stagflation / Commodities / Stagflation
By: Christopher_Laird
Seeing the gold market correct, and oil in a speculation mania, and other commodities with speculation, then combining weakening US consumer demand, one wonders what the heck is going on. The markets are in a chaotic battle between inflation and deflation forces.
The USD is rising, from a bottom around 70. It fell for years since 02. At this 70ish number on the USDX (US dollar index heavily Euro weighted) the USD rebounded. The EU is screaming the Euro is too strong. Germany is the only one who is not screaming. Even so, the EU has a much better trade balance situation (on the whole) than the US.
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Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Gold Bounces on Strong Inflation Data / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE PRICE OF GOLD BULLION fell at the opening in London on Wednesday, slipping to a 7-session low of $860.50 per ounce before bouncing almost 1.0% as New York opened for business and the US Dollar fell against the Euro.Wall Street stock futures pointed lower as crude oil dropped 41¢ per barrel to $125.31.
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Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Gold to Oil Price Ratio Says Gold is Cheap / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold was down $13.90 to $8 69 yesterday and silver was down 43 cents to $16.73 . Gold traded flat in Asia and has fallen marginally in early trading in Europe. But with oil prices rising and inflation pressures increasing internationally, gold will be well supported at these levels. Momentum traders and short term speculative players continue to exert pressure on the gold market but continuing demand for physical bullion from those with a more medium to long term investment horizon, namely individual investors, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and indeed central banks in Asia, Russia and elsewhere will ultimately lead to higher gold prices in the medium and long term.
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Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Resource Stocks that are Chinese Takeover Targets / Commodities / Resources Investing
By: Money_and_Markets
Tony Sagami writes: As I've told you before, I believe the #1 rule for making money in the next decade is to get long whatever the Chinese are buying.
After all, China will need to consume an unprecedented amount of natural resources to fuel its red-hot economy and feed its 1.4 billion people. And in a moment, I'm going to give you four specific areas to target, and the company in each area that looks most like a takeover candidate.
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Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Increase of Chickens Consumption Contributing to Agro-Foods Boom / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Ethanol is beginning of search for alternatives to petroleum based fuels, not the best nor the end of that search. Ethanol is first step in move backwards in biological terms to sun/plant juncture where solar energy is converted to form humans and animals can use. Recently, with exception of corn farmers, ethanol seems to be loosing friends. The “jump to a conclusion without the facts” group is blaming ethanol for high and rising food prices.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Crude Oil Marches Higher on Chinese Earthquake / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The viciousness with which the oil market pivots and reverses in both directions certainly is unnerving- at least to me, anyway. "The market" has totally bought into the idea that supplies are so tight that 500,000 bbls of Nigerian crude oil stuck in port, coupled with increased demand for diesel fuel from the Chinese earthquake region are reasons for nearby crude oil prices to climb from $123 to new all-time highs at $127 (3%) in about two hours of trading! Whether we believe those explanations or not really does not matter, because price means everything, and right now, price is on the march higher once again.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Gold Bounces as Stock Markets Fall on Horrific Data / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES fell to a three-session low early Tuesday, finally bouncing higher from $876 per ounce as European equities slipped alongside crude oil prices and government bonds.
Only base metals bucked the trend as the Dollar ticked higher on the currency markets.
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Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Gold Underpinned by Surging Inflation in UK, China and Internationally / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold was down 80 cents to $883.90 yesterday but silver was up 36 cents to $17.16. The London AM Gold Fix at 1030 GMT this morning was at $877.00, £450.18 and €566.61 (from $887.25, £453.91 and €573.60 yesterday).Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Commodity Market Summary / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Emanuel_Balarie
Grains - Corn fell over 2-percent today, with the July contract settling 14 1/2 cents lower at $6.14 ¾ a bushel. Improving planting conditions in the U.S. Midwest with forecasts for no major storms before May 21st will accelerate plantings that have experienced extended delays due to wet weather.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 12, 2008
Sell Gold Shares in May and Walk Away? / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: John_Lee
Here we are in May, and everyone asks the question, is it time to sell and walk way? Well that depends what you are holding. This article focuses on timing in regard to the junior resource mining equities, for which we use the S&P/TSX Ventures Composite Index as a proxy.
Resource Junior Sector Roller Coaster
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Monday, May 12, 2008
Natural Gas Overbought / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Yes, the US Natural Gas ETF (AMEX: UNG) is a roaring bull move off of its 2007 Double Bottom in the low 33 area. Yes, the upmove off of the base area (45.00-34.00) has been powerful to say the least, but it also has fulfilled its measured target zone in the vicinity of 55.00. This does NOT mean that the UNG cannot or will not continue higher; however, when coupled with the glaring daily (and weekly) RSI negative momentum divergences, the fulfilled upside potential of the UNG pattern takes on more interesting dimensions.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 12, 2008
Precious Metals Correction to End in May / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Captain_Hook
Neither A Borrower Nor A Lender Be - And most certainly, don't be a gold producer, as the deck is definitively stacked against you here too. We will get back to this subject in just a minute. But first, let's expand on that title, as it's a beauty given global monetary conditions appear to be progressing into a state of hyperinflation . Neither a borrower nor a lender be – is a line first penned by Shakespeare in reference to important lessons in life, which more recently has morphed into a forgotten mores rooted in lessons learned during hard times – or should I say ‘honest money times.' Honest money times – what the heck are ‘honest money times'? Such a terminology implies government and monetary authorities are attempting to pull a fast one in that they are issuing ‘dishonest money'. How can this be when foreigners accept our currency for manufactured ‘hard items', on top of the fact everybody has access to the information concerning currency debasement policies of the present day governing regime?Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 12, 2008
Gold Positive Fundementals as Western Economies Face Stagflation Threat / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
After last week's more than 3% gain in gold, gold surged to nearly $890.00 in early trading in Asia prior to succumbing to subsequent profit taking. The London AM Gold Fix at 1030 GMT this morning was at $887.25, £453.91 and €573.60 (from $863.50, £434.64 and €556.74 on Friday).It is hard to see gold falling significantly this week unless there is a sharp fall in oil prices and strengthening of the dollar – both of which seem unlikely. However, gold has surprised to the downside in recent weeks and further consolidation may be needed prior to challenging $900 again. With oil remaining well bid above $125 and geopolitical risk in Nigeria, Lebanon and Iran still of importance, gold looks likely to be well bid at these levels.
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Monday, May 12, 2008
Gold Slips as Speculators Turn Bullish on the US Dollar / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE SPOT PRICE OF GOLD slipped $10 early in London on Monday, trading below $890 per ounce as world stock markets ticked higher and government bonds sold off.The Euro picked up 1.5¢ against the Dollar from last week's two-month beneath $1.5300.
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Monday, May 12, 2008
Silver Correction Over and Gearing Up for Explosive Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
Silver's corrective phase is believed to be complete, meaning that it is now in position to begin another major uptrend. In the last update, which was about 5 weeks ago, it was pointed out that silver was noticeably outperforming gold, and that this implied that if gold went on to drop to our target zone for its correction in the $830 - $850 area, silver might not react much further if at all, and this, as we now know, is exactly what has happened, for it has only dropped marginally below its late March lows, and has not broken below the zone of support that put a floor under it at that time - this is a sign of resilience. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 12, 2008
Fool's Gold- Gold Sucker Rally? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Joe_Nicholson
“If the rotation trade fizzles and such a rally in gold materializes, while it would tend to discredit an impulse down, it may trap many longs into thinking the larger correction is over, whereas the chart shows we've likely only reached an intermediate term bottom after reaching previous resistance and oversold levels in the RSI. While silver can easily drop into it's 200-day sma near $15.35, it's also reaching oversold levels and should be due for a relief rally soon, in which case resistance at $17 and at the broken trendline will be crucial.” ~ Precious Points: All That Glitters, May 03, 2008 Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 11, 2008
Gold Correction Completing- Bull Market About to Resume / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
Gold's corrective phase is believed to be complete, meaning that it is now in position to begin another major uptrend. In the last update, which was about 5 weeks ago, we were looking for it to continue to react back to support in the $830 - $850 area above its 200-day moving average, and that is exactly what it has done.
On the 1-year chart we can see how the fine strong uptrend from last August, which broke down into a 5-wave sequence, culminated in a brief sojourn above the psychologically important $1000 level, accompanied by great fanfare in the press, before a classic 3-wave correction back towards the 200-day moving average set in.
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Sunday, May 11, 2008
New Russian President, New Investment Opportunities? / Commodities / Russia
By: Martin_Hutchinson
New Russian President Dmitry Medvedev wants better links with Europe. Judging by the performance of outgoing President Vladimir Putin , Europe should beware: The so-called "links" he's seeking may resemble those used to chain together prisoners in the Gulag.
On the other hand - though it's admittedly unpleasant to say so - there's a point at which the effects of high oil prices are so great that in the short run they far outweigh one's distaste for the thuggish Russian regime. And at $123 a barrel, we may be at that point.
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Saturday, May 10, 2008
Gold Trend- What the Heck is Going On? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
This is a difficult time for a gold analyst, especially when one doesn't REALLY know what the heck's going on behind the scenes. However, one must go on with whatever little intelligence one has and still make broad pronouncements. Let's see what the charts are telling us.
GOLD : LONG TERM
Having declared a P&F long term bear market last week there is no reason for suddenly turning around. What rally there was this week did nothing to the long term P&F chart. So, the P&F bear market continues.