Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Wednesday, December 09, 2015

Plunging Commodities Interfere With The New World Order / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Anglo American, a British company, and one of the world’s biggest miners, and a ‘producer’ (actually just a miner, how did those two terms ever get mixed up?!) of platinum (world no. 1), diamonds, copper, nickel, iron ore and coal, said today it would scrap dividends AND fire 85,000 of it 135,000 global workforce (that’s 63%!).

Anglo is just the first in a long litany line we’ll see going forward. Commodities ‘producers’ are being completely wiped out, hammered, killed, murdered. They’ve been able to hedge their downside risks so far, but now find they can’t even afford the price of the hedges (insurance) anymore. And then there’s all the banks and funds that financed them.

Tuesday, December 08, 2015

How Much Longer Will Rising US Dollar Crush Commodities and Mining Stocks? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Jeb_Handwerger

-For over four years, capital has been flowing from Europe into the US Currency and Economy to get better returns.
-The rising dollar and S&P 500 crushed commodities and emerging economies over the past several years.
-Geopolitical uncertainty throughout the world is rising especially in the Middle East where now Russia and the West are taking on ISIS.
-Rapidly rising US dollar caused horrible bear market in mining equities.
-High US dollar is slowing down economic growth domestically which could be exacerbated by higher rates. Meanwhile, Europe and emerging economies may be bottoming and improving with the negative rates.

Tuesday, December 08, 2015

Gold Buying Surges At U.S. Mint In November – China Buys 21 Tonnes In November Alone / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

Despite gold at near 6 year lows, global demand for physical bullion remains very high. This is clearly seen in the recent demand data from the U.S. Mint and other mints. It is also seen in demand data from GFMS and the World Gold Council which shows very robust demand from Germany, India and of course, China.

Tuesday, December 08, 2015

Extreme Leverage in a Gold Futures Market Nearing the Breaking Point / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: MoneyMetals

The metals markets rallied strongly on Friday – action which came as a surprise to many. The gains snapped a 6-week losing streak for gold, silver, and platinum. Prices rose despite a stronger-than-expected November jobs report raising the odds the Fed will hike interest rates later this month.

Perhaps silver and gold futures finally caught a safe-haven bid on news of the terrorism-linked shooting in Southern California.

Tuesday, December 08, 2015

Crude Oil Price Under $40! / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $54.12 and initial (!) target price at $35.72 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Friday, crude oil reversed and declined sharply after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' decision to keep production high weighed on investors' sentiment. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude lost 2.74% and slipped under the barrier of $40 once again. What's next?

Monday, December 07, 2015

BIS Warns of ‘Uneasy Calm’ in Financial Markets Before Possible Debt Storm / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has warned in its latest quarterly review that the current ‘uneasy calm’ in financial markets might be short lived, threatened by the Fed’s widely expected interest rate hike – the first rate increase in a decade.

Monday, December 07, 2015

Silver Rides Along with Gold Price Breakout / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Clive_Maund

Silver broke out with gold on Friday, following an extraordinary plunge in the dollar on Thursday. On its 3-month chart we can see that the ground had been well prepared for this move, with an intermediate base pattern having formed above support for about 3 weeks prior to the breakout. The preceding persistent decline included an extraordinary 15 days down in a row. There were various indications of an impending upside breakout, including the appearance of a bull hammer at the support and a bullish cross by the MACD indicator above its moving average, the large gap with moving averages, and, in the background, silver's COT was improving and gold's COT had become remarkably bullish by last week.

Monday, December 07, 2015

Gold Price Convincing Upside Breakout Triggering Start of Intermediate Uptrend / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Clive_Maund

On Thursday the dollar reversed dramatically to the downside and on Friday gold broke out upside, with both developments being predicated by the most bullish gold COTs for 14 years.

On gold's 3-month chart we can see that, after trying the patience of bulls for weeks as the COT pressure cooker intensified, gold finally broke out on Friday. This was a big decisive breakout on strong volume which COTs indicate is "the real deal". Fortunately the COTs were already so bullish a week ago that we went long ETFs, stocks and Calls before the breakout. As we can see, even after Friday's big move, there is lots more upside potential here, as gold is still heavily oversold on its MACD and way below its 200-day moving average.

Saturday, December 05, 2015

Gold And Silver – Hope And Change From Last Week? Little Hope, Little Change / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Michael_Noonan

Was last week the start of something big? You be the judge of what the market is saying.

There is a reason and purpose why we always use and refer to the weekly charts, and the monthly at the end of each month. These higher time frames are more controlling over the lower time frames, particularly the daily chart upon which most rely. From the daily, many then choose to view the markets from an intra day perspective, as though a closer time frame will give better results. That is not the case.

Saturday, December 05, 2015

Gold Price Weekly Reversal : This is IT ! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Dan_Norcini

In watching the short squeeze taking place in the gold market this AM, I am noticing that the push higher is creating a WEEKLY UPSIDE REVERSAL PATTERN on the intermediate term chart.V

Saturday, December 05, 2015

Gold’s Artificial Price Lows / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold’s latest slide to new secular lows has amplified the hyper-bearish sentiment long plaguing it.  More than ever, traders are universally convinced gold is doomed to drift lower indefinitely.  But these extreme gold lows are not fundamentally righteous, they resulted from extreme record gold-futures shorting.  As these risky leveraged bets must soon be covered, prices driven by them are artificial and unsustainable.

One of the greatest mistakes made in the markets is the common assumption that prevailing price levels are justified by fundamentals.  Nothing could be farther from the truth.  While prices do indeed gravitate towards levels supported by supply and demand over the long term, herd emotions drag them away in the short term.  Popular greed and fear have vastly more influence on current prices than fundamentals.

Friday, December 04, 2015

Does GDP Drive the Gold Price? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The gross domestic product (GDP) is the monetary value of all finished goods and services produced within a country in a specific time period. It is also the most common measure of a nation’s overall economic activity or the size of economy. More and more economists recognize the flawed character of GDP (for example, it includes only final goods and services; overstates the consumption; it assumes that government spending is productive; it treats imports as something negative; it excludes household work, and so on), but governments, central banks, financial analysts and investors still think it is possible to frame the whole economy in just one number. This is why the GDP growth is still closely followed, also in the gold market.

Friday, December 04, 2015

Dovish ECB Disappoints – Gold Rises, Stocks and Bonds Fall Globally, Euro Surges / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

‘Super Mario’, the European Central Bank’s monetary magician, disappointed markets yesterday as continuing and unprecedented monetary easing failed to prevent a sharp sell-off in stock and bond markets which has continued today.

There are sharp losses on financial markets after the ECB’s President’s – nicknamed ‘Super Mario’ and more recently ‘Magic Mario’ – latest radical measures stopped well short of market expectations and traders desperation for more cheap money and deepening ultra loose monetary policies.

Friday, December 04, 2015

Relative Strength in Gold Stocks Portends to Rebound / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

A few weeks ago we warned that the gold miners were at risk of a technical breakdown. They struggled to rebound at support while Gold was breaking to a new low. Gold continued to decline but the miners held support and stabilized. Gold traded as low as $1045 on Thursday but the miners continued to diverge in a positive fashion. The recent relative strength from the gold miners particularly in the face of new lows in Gold, coupled with the oversold condition of the metals suggests a sector rebound is developing.

Friday, December 04, 2015

Silver: We NEED it! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: DeviantInvestor

The answer to many questions often depends upon perspective, whether the questions are; should I buy silver, is the S&P 500 expensive, is huge and unpayable debt a problem, is another World War a bad idea, will eating potato chips and candy bars actually damage my health, and are Republicrats as useless and corrupt as they appear?

Many people have suggested that silver prices are hopeless and silver will never go up.  This is an overly emotional perspective caused by 4.5 years of declining silver prices and negative sentiment.  Consistent with this “hopeless” assessment are:

Friday, December 04, 2015

Invest Like a Fund Manager: Tips from the Silver Summit / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: The_Gold_Report

Gold bars? ETFs? Junior miners? Royalty streams? Majors with dividends? How is an investor to determine the best way to leverage the upside of a beaten up metals market? The Gold Report hosted a standing-room-only fund manager panel at the Silver Summit in San Francisco featuring insights from three very different points of view. Axel Merk, president and CIO of Merk Investments, focuses on gold and currency investing. Robert Mullin is co-founder of Real Assets Equity Income Funds and focuses largely on producing mining companies. Greg Orrell is the president and portfolio manager of the OCM Gold Fund and invests across all sectors of the precious metals industry, including junior producers and exploration and development companies. All three see unique opportunities right now for creating a portfolio that captures a renewed focus from mining executives on shareholder interests.

Thursday, December 03, 2015

Gold Price Capitulation ? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Dan_Norcini

The technical charts on gold are suggesting the start of a fresh leg lower in price. The loss of chart support near the $1075-$1070 level, and the subsequent inability of the metal to move back above that level, has led to both long liquidation on the part of the specs as well as fresh shorting.

On the intermediate term chart ( Weekly) price appears headed for the lower line of the downtrending price channel that has contained gold since April of 2014. Currently, that targets a potential move to down near $1030-$1020.

Wednesday, December 02, 2015

Gold and Silver Trading Alert: USD and Silver Invalidate the Breakdowns but Gold Doesn't / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions in gold, silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward point of view. In other words, we think that taking the rest of the profits off the table is justified from the risk to reward point of view. It seems likely that we will re-enter the short positions shortly, though.

The precious metals sector moved higher yesterday, while the USD Index declined. There was no meaningful action in gold - it remains below the previous 2015 lows - but silver invalidated its recent breakdown and the USD Index invalidated its recent breakout. Is gold the key market to focus on, or are other markets just as important and can change the outlook for gold on their own?

Wednesday, December 02, 2015

Gold COTs Most Bullish for 14 Years, Call for a Sizeable Tradable Rally Soon... / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Clive_Maund

There is no need to mince words or beat around the bush with this update. The latest COTs for gold released yesterday showed another marked improvement so that they are now strongly and unequivocally bullish - in fact they are at their most positive since late 2001, that's 14 years.

We are not going to waste our time trying to figure out the reason or reasons for this, but possibly this situation suggests that the Fed is not going to raise rates this month as widely expected. If they don't, the dollar, which has wafted back to its highs on this expectation, will drop and the PM sector will rally.

Wednesday, December 02, 2015

Gold Price is Nearing Record Low – When to Buy? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Nicholas_Kitonyi

The price of gold has been under intense pressure over the last few weeks as expectations about the increase of the U.S. interest rates continue to rise. The Federal Reserve is expected to make an announcement soon with regard to this matter and several financial reviews believe that an uptick could come as early as this month.

This has helped to push the price of Gold close to its 5-year low of $1,056. However, in the last few days, the price of the yellow metal appears to have hit a turning point with some investors convinced that the expected interest rate hike has already been tacked into the bin.