Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, March 25, 2014
2014 Year of Commodities (March Update) / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
That 2013 was a year when equities ruled supreme is now well recorded history. Generally speaking, expectations at the end of the year were that 2014 would be more of the same. Among the popularly reported forecasts were the S&P 500 going to 2,000 while $Gold would plunge to $1,050. While the calendar will ultimately decide the wisdom of those forecasts, reality is already casting doubt on them. Perhaps the numbers in those forecasts were inadvertently switched.
Tuesday, March 25, 2014
Crude Oil Price Still Remains Below Important Resistance / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short. Stop-loss orders for crude oil and WTI Crude Oil (CFD): $102.95.
On Friday, crude oil gained 0.95% as concerns about economic sanctions against Russia weighted on the price. In this way, light crude climbed above $100 for the first time since March 11. Despite this increase, crude oil gave up the gains in the following hours and finished the day below this important barrier once again.
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Tuesday, March 25, 2014
Gold and Silver Price Breakdown Confirmation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Briefly: In our opinion short speculative positions in silver (half) and mining stocks (full) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Friday was generally a calm day in the precious metals market and for the currency indices. The initial moves higher (in the early part of the session) were mostly invalidated later on and overall not much changed at the first sight. On second look, the lack of rally confirmed the breakdown in mining stocks. Let's take a look (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):
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Monday, March 24, 2014
Junior Gold Mining Stocks to Beat Previous Highs / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
By: Casey_Research
By Laurynas Vegys, Research Analyst
Despite last week’s pullback, the precious metals market is off to an impressive start in 2014. Gold is up 10.6%, silver 4.3%, and the PHLX Gold/Silver (XAU) 17.1%. Gold, in particular, had a great February, rising above $1,300 for the first time since November 7, 2013.
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Monday, March 24, 2014
The Run On U.S. Gold Continues.... / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Steve_St_Angelo
So where is China getting all of its gold? One of the large sources turns out to be the United States. The U.S. experienced another record year of net gold exports in 2013. Not only were gold exports at record levels, imports into the U.S. fell nearly half compared to 2010.If we look at the chart below, U.S. gold exports in 2010 were 383 metric tons (mt), however by 2013, they increased 81% to 692 mt. In addition, U.S. gold imports fell 48% from 604 mt in 2010 to 313 mt in 2013.
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Monday, March 24, 2014
Gold Golden Double Cross and Gold Miner Breadth Oscillator / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Submissions
Denaliguide Summit writes: GOLDENLY DOUBLE CROSSED & "ROYALLY SCREWED"?
Just like one of the hopeless heroines ("Reign", Episode 13) in a TV series I think we the PM Investing Public have been nakedly screwed in front of the entire world, looking on and snickering as we lie there supine and helpless as the KING OF FRAUDS, CRIMEX, IMO, has his way with us. The KING of FRAUDS has been painting a picture for everyone to see, whilst debauching every PM Investor with every price it paints.
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Monday, March 24, 2014
Profit from the End of the Secret Gold Price "Fix" / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Money_Morning
Peter Krauth writes: For nearly 100 years the London gold price fix has been widely used as an industry benchmark.
Its goal was to determine a price for gold that bullion dealers, jewelers, miners, and central banks could use to value their metal.
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Monday, March 24, 2014
Gold Golden Cross Is Not Always a Positive Indicator / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Bob_Kirtley
An exciting major event is about to occur in the precious metals arena this very week and you will no doubt see many references to it and that is formation of Golden Cross. Gold bugs including me will be looking for this event to become the ignition for gold to rally to much higher ground.
We will commence with a definition of a Golden Cross as defined by Stockcharts.com: A signal where the shorter moving average moves above the longer moving average. Usually, this term is associated with the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average.
Monday, March 24, 2014
Inflection Points for Gold, Silver and the U.S. Dollar / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Rambus_Chartology
As we all know last week was a tough week in the PM sector. The real question we have to ask is whether this was just a short term correction in the uptrend that started at the December low or is this the end of the three month rally? We’ll look at some charts to see if we can answer this question.
Lets start with the BPGDM chart that I showed you last week which was real close to giving a sell signal. We were just waiting for the 5 dma to cross below the 8 dma to confirm the sell signal. We got that last Friday so it’s officially on a sell signal now. The red circle shows the BPGDM is down to 36.67 with the 5 dma at 39.33 and the 8 dma now the highest at 40. This is the alignment we want to see for a sell signal.
Sunday, March 23, 2014
Gold Price is Likely to Keep Rallying / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Investment_U
Steve McDonald writes: If you have followed me for any amount of time, you know I am all over anything that has to do with food: seed, fertilizers, chemicals, processors. You name it, I like it.
The newest name in this absolutely essential worldwide business is FMC Corp. (NYSE: FMC). They are about to split their company into two segments. The new company will be made up of their fast growing agricultural side. The remaining business will be the more cyclical lithium and soda ash operations.
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Saturday, March 22, 2014
Gold and Silver Hunger Games / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Jesse
Last night Nick Laird showed me some excellent original data analysis from his site, Sharelynx.com, that demonstrates that a decline in the price of gold during an FOMC week is no sure thing, but more normally distributed. And we have to balance that against a different, and much less statistically robust graph, that was on ZH, and which I also presented here, that clearly showed declines in FOMC weeks, and no similar declines in off weeks, but for a much shorter period of time.
Saturday, March 22, 2014
Gold And Silver - For Strong Upside Movement Experts Continue To Be Wrong / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Michael_Noonan
From our perspective, the charts reflect the reality of the unreal within the ruling Western elites that continue their financial stranglehold over every Western government, at a minimum, and through their central banks dictating how governments are to rule the governed, aka those enslaved into the system. [We will deal with how charts are the best read, later in the commentary.]
Actually, "the system" is an apt way of describing how the Rothschild formula has spread its dominating tentacles into every aspect of everyone's lives. Formula: Control all the money, control the government. Control the government, control the world. This diabolically simple plan has worked right from the outset. Rothschild was an incredibly astute businessman.
Saturday, March 22, 2014
Suing JPMorgan and the COMEX / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldSilverWorlds
Ted Butler writes: I’ve had some recent conversations with attorneys who were considering class-action lawsuits regarding a gold price manipulation stemming from reports about the London Gold Fix. I told them that while there is no doubt that gold and, particularly, silver are manipulated in price, I didn’t see how the manipulation stemmed from the London Fix. I wished them well and hoped that they may prevail (the enemy of my enemy is my friend), because you never know – if the lawyers dig deep enough they might find the real source of the gold and silver manipulation, namely, the COMEX (owned by the CME Group) and JPMorgan.
So I thought it might be constructive to lay out what I thought a successful lawsuit might look like, although I’m speaking as a precious metals analyst and not as a lawyer. I’ll try to put the whole thing into proper perspective, including the premise and scope of the manipulation as well as the parties involved.
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Saturday, March 22, 2014
Gold and Silver Stocks Failed Breakout Marks Interim Top / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Unless you've been living under a rock then you have witnessed the now false breakout in Gold and gold stocks. Our expectation was that the breakout would take Gold to $1420 and the stocks up to their neckline resistance (GDX $30 and GDXJ $51) and then we'd see the first real correction since the December low. Before you send in the hate mail, as some already have, let me remind you that we've emphasized having an exit strategy and last week wrote, "You sit tight until you decide to take profits or something changes." Something clearly changed this week. The breakout was nullified and precious metals will finish this week with a nasty candlestick that implies an interim top.
Friday, March 21, 2014
Ukraine Crisis Implications For Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Alasdair_Macleod
There is a fascinating story from Robert Peston, the BBC's business editor about his interview with Hank Paulson, who was the US treasury secretary at the time of the Lehman crisis. Paulson said that he was told by the Chinese that they had a message from the Russians suggesting they club together to drive down the prices of Fannie and Freddie "to maximise the turmoil on Wall Street". The Chinese declined, but in doing so they made sure the Treasury was aware that China and Russia know that between them they have the power to break western capital markets.
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Friday, March 21, 2014
Gold Stocks Golden Cross / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold-mining sector is on the verge of flashing the fabled Golden Cross buy signal. This is one of the most powerful and revered indicators in all of technical analysis. When it arrives after the right conditions, it flags the critical transition from bear to bull markets. And today’s gold-stock environment is perfect to spawn such a pivotal Golden Cross. Seeing this milestone will accelerate capital flows back into gold stocks.
Friday, March 21, 2014
Gold and Silver Probability, Predictability, Price and Forecasting / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Investors and observers watching the drama unfold in the Ukraine should not be surprised at the short price action of the precious metals, mainly gold and silver. Throughout the crisis (and as matter of record with practically every other crisis) the metals are driven down by a system that becomes more sophisticated each day.
The ramifications and consequences of events in the Ukraine and Crimea are dire and easy to imagine. These ramifications radiate and dovetail with the multitude of other potential and current hot spots in other energy strategic areas of the world.
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Friday, March 21, 2014
Gold Miners Red Alert Or All Clear? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
By: GoldSilverWorlds
Its getting really bad when you can’t trust the criminals in power to do what you you think they are going to do!
Thursday, March 20, 2014
Gold & Silver Stocks Breakdown Alert / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Briefly: In our opinion short speculative positions in silver (half) and mining stocks (full) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
The dollar’s rally and the precious metals’ decline were seen right after comments from the Fed about the planned $10 billion cut in asset purchases. They will now amount to “only” $55 billion per month.
The dollar’s rally and the precious metals’ decline had been already seen in the charts and the Fed comments served as a catalyst.
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Thursday, March 20, 2014
Gold and Silver - Another Triumphant FOMC Day / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: PhilStockWorld
There was intraday commentary on the Fed Statement here, and some comments on the nature of the Fed's policy error in the US equity charts and review here.
There is an option expiration for stocks on Friday, and I suspect that call option owners of the mining companies and various related metals products got quite a ride today.