Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, December 15, 2020
Is the Vaccine a Game-Changer for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The vaccines are coming – we’re saved! Although the arriving vaccines are great for humanity, they are bad for the price of gold.In November, Pfizer and BioNTech announced that their mRNA-based vaccine candidate, BNT162b2, had demonstrated evidence of an efficacy rate above 90% against COVID-19, in the first interim efficacy analysis. As Dr. Albert Bourla, Pfizer Chairman and CEO, said:
Today is a great day for science and humanity. The first set of results from our Phase 3 COVID-19 vaccine trial provides the initial evidence of our vaccine’s ability to prevent COVID-19.
Indeed, the announcement is great news! After all, the vaccine is the ultimate weapon against the virus. There’s no doubt that we will get the vaccine one day. Thank God for scientists – they are really clever people who work hard to develop a safe vaccine! Why can’t we have more of them instead of so many economists? As well, the pandemic triggered unprecedented global cooperation to develop a vaccine as quickly as possible. The funds are enormous, while the bureaucrats eventually decided to behave like decent human beings for once and eased their stance in order to speed up the whole process. Great!
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Tuesday, December 15, 2020
Beat the Coming ‘Taxflation’ Tsunami with Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
The final weeks of the tumultuous year that has been 2020 present opportunities for investors to get their financial houses in order ahead of the New Year.
Nobody knows what 2021 will bring. But new political risks are likely to emerge – including the threats of higher taxes and a more punitive IRS.
With control of the U.S. Senate still up for grabs pending runoff elections in Georgia next month, and the final outcome of the presidential race still in dispute, an environment of uncertainty will reign for the remainder of the year.
President Donald Trump continues to pursue a longshot campaign to rescind fraudulent election results in multiple states through the courts or state legislatures.
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Tuesday, December 15, 2020
How Will Gold Perform This Winter? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Brace yourselves, winter is coming! It may be a harsh period for the United States, but much better for gold.Some of you may have seen snow this year already, but the astronomical winter is still ahead of us. Unfortunately, it could be a really dark winter. Instead of joyful snowball battles and making snowmen, we will have to contend with the coronavirus . The vaccines will definitely help (the first doses of Pfizer’s vaccine were administered this week), but their widespread distribution will begin only next year. So, we still have to deal with the pandemic taking its toll here and now – as the chart below shows, the number of daily COVID-19 cases is still above 200,000 in the U.S.
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Monday, December 14, 2020
Precious Metals: The Foundation of A Sound Financial Portfolio / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Nick_Barisheff
Precious metals are the bedrock of the financial world. They have permanent value and are the oldest form of money in the world. If you don’t own physical gold and silver, your investment portfolio lacks a sound foundation. Precious metals are often sought after as a store of permanent value, and as a method of diversifying portfolios.
While cash, bonds, stocks and real estate offer investors financial diversification, precious metals underpin all other assets, particularly during times of economic turbulence and market turmoil.
Imagine an upside-down pyramid containing successive layers of asset classes.
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Monday, December 14, 2020
Gold Price Green Light For Mining Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks are finally perking up again, after spending months slogging through a grinding correction. Contrarian traders are taking notice, starting to redeploy capital in this high-potential sector. Gold miners’ earnings and thus stock prices are overwhelmingly driven by gold’s fortunes. And the yellow metal’s recent technicals are signaling a mature correction, green-lighting gold stocks’ next major upleg.
Bull markets are an alternating series of uplegs followed by corrections, for every few steps forward there is always one step back. These periodic selloffs are essential for bulls’ health and longevity, rebalancing sentiment and technicals before they get too overheated. Popular greed growing too extreme early in bulls will prematurely slay them. All available near-term buying is sucked in, exhausting capital inflows and upside.
The most-important times to trade during bull markets are correction bottomings and upleg toppings. The mission is to buy in relatively-low at the former, then sell relatively-high at the latter. That’s the lowest-risk and fastest way to multiply wealth in ongoing secular bulls. But executing on this strategy is challenging in real-time, because these tradable major lows and highs aren’t definitive until well after they’ve passed.
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Monday, December 14, 2020
Big Down Day For Gold And Silver; More To Come? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Kelsey_Williams
After a recent spike to the upside over the past seven days, both gold and silver have turned negative again and could be headed back to their recent low points reached early in the day on Monday, November 30th.
The movement in both gold and silver is evident of a decided shift in trend direction to the downside. What happens after prices return to their recent lows could prove interesting; or downright discouraging if you are expecting a resumption of the trend to higher prices.
Silver at its recent reaction high point yesterday reached $24.80. At that point it was still down $5.00 per ounce from it August intraday high of $29.80. When silver touched $21.80 last week it represented a loss of more than twenty-five percent from its August peak.
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Sunday, December 13, 2020
Looking for Precious Metals Key Triggers / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The question on everyone’s mind is: when is it a good time to buy some gold or silver after they bottom? The answer to that question is simple: when key triggers are met. Count-trend rallies in gold or silver don’t mean that they have enough energy and momentum to keep climbing. Miners also don’t have enough strength to lead the way in a fresh climb upwards for the PMs, so everything we see now only speaks of corrective action.
Gold moved higher yesterday (Dec 8), while silver and mining stocks went in the opposite direction. It seems that the latter moved in tune with the trend, while the move in the former was rather accidental.
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Friday, December 11, 2020
Mission Accomplished: The Gold Bull Is Back / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger maintains the "golden bull is back," and in this missive he outlines the reasons why. As this is being penned, I am seated in my den just after 7 a.m. looking out into the pitch darkness of an early December morn and the only light is a reflection off the cool waters of the lovely swamp Lake Scugog emanating from the bustling metropolis known as Port Perry. I can hear the distant rumbling of cars and trucks all along the causeway on their way to destinations that have surely changed from what and where they were one year ago.
With warranted affection, it gives me great hope in watching my fellow small-town citizens carrying on with pre-Christmas traditions, decorating the eaves with festive lights and animated front-lawn symbols that go back centuries. The will to survive and spit in the eye of the current public health crisis (which is rapidly morphing into a civil obedience crisis) gives me time to reflect upon the events of the past year. In case you haven't noticed, in the blink of an eye, 2020 will soon be gone, and to this I say, "Good riddance!"
Furthering that sentiment, I normally take the first week of December to conduct a self-audit of the year in review, largely because by this time there is not a great deal one can do to enhance one's portfolio performance. You have either had a good year or you have had a bad year, and with markets winding down into mid-month, volumes and volatility are going to be significantly reduced and trading opportunities disappearing up the proverbial chimney.
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Friday, December 11, 2020
Silver is Back! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth explains why he believes silver is heading into a massive bull market. It's getting harder with every passing day to find cheap assets.
Stocks, bonds, real estate, they're all pretty pricey. And yet, no one seems to care.
Instead, the masses, and asset managers, appear determined to keep pushing them higher.
In recent days, the S&P 500, the Dow 30 and the Nasdaq all set new records. And yet, it's not difficult to imagine that, at least over the next 6–12 months, these indices could easily all head higher.
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Friday, December 11, 2020
Is Silver Price (finally!) Set to "Cross the Rubicon"? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
History is full of intriguing sayings coming down to us from other cultures that inform our thinking and behavior.
"Managing a large state is like cooking a small fish." – Lao Tzu.
"A stitch in time saves nine." – A 1700's sewing reference.
"Healing is a matter of time; sometimes a matter of opportunity." – Hippocrates.
One I especially like tracks back to Julius Caesar after ending his governance of the Roman province of Gaul and being ordered to disband his army. Under no circumstances was he to come closer with it than a small stream outside of Rome.
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Thursday, December 10, 2020
The Death Of U.S. Shale Has Been Greatly Exaggerated / Commodities / Shale Oil and Gas
By: OilPrice_Com
The current year marks the 15th anniversary of the U.S. shale boom, a period in which fracking technology across such states as Texas, Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, and Wyoming helped establish the nation as a top oil and gas producer.
Unfortunately, high costs of production compared with conventional drilling has led to the sector consistently printing red ink and resulted in considerable destruction of shareholder value. The Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent oil price crash has led to investors souring on the industry further, credit becoming harder to come by, and a cross-section of Wall Street calling the end to the sector.
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Wednesday, December 09, 2020
Copper, the Most Critical Metal / Commodities / Copper
By: Richard_Mills
In 2018, before the trade war between the US and China put the boots to copper demand, and covid-19 mine closures/ abandoned expansion plans crimped supply, we made a bold prediction: that copper supply is NOT going to be able to keep up with demand in the long-term. Here’s what we wrote, in The coming copper crunch:
Even with expansions at existing mines and the ramp-up of the relatively few new copper mines like Cobre Panama, Radomiro Tomic and Toquepalain, it will not be enough to meet the onslaught of demand that is coming from China as it continues to modernize and urbanize, and electric vehicles, which use three times as much copper as regular ones. In 2016 Chinese automakers sold 28 million cars. If China follows through on its promise to go 100% electric, that would mean 2,380,000,000 kilograms of copper. At the current production rate of 20 million tonnes a year, that’s 119 years worth of copper! Just to produce enough copper for electric cars in China.
Do we expect 100% EV penetration? No. But the shift to electrification of our transportation system is real, it’s not going to go away or stop. Because it’s as real as the shift from wood to coal to fossil fuels and now to lithium. That means massive new copper supplies are needed just for Chinese EVs, whatever the EV penetration eventually turns out to be. And remember there’s the rest of the world to supply for EVs, charging infrastructure, and all of copper’s other uses.
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Wednesday, December 09, 2020
Gold Wave Forecast – Is Gold Going To $3750 Or Higher? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Watching Gold fall to recent lows over the past few weeks has been heartbreaking for Goldbugs. We know the real value of Precious Metals has continued to be under-appreciated over the past 24+ months – even though Gold has rallied from $1165 to over $2085 (an incredible 79%). The recent 15% decline in Gold has shaken some investors away from the longer-term opportunities, so we wanted to share our research and highlight some simple Elliot Wave structures with you.
My research team and I believe the recent downward price trend in Gold is an ideal setup for an Intermediate Wave 4 pullback of a broader Wave 3 advance. In other words, we believe Gold is in the midst of a broad advance cycle that may eventually push price levels to $5000 and above. But, we’ll focus on right now and what we believe is setting up from a Technical Analysis perspective.
The first thing to remember about Elliot Wave Analysis is that we must consider the broad market trends, the intermediate market trends, and the short term wave formations. With almost all types of Technical Analysis, we focus on different time perspectives of price trends and setups to help us better determine opportunities and outcomes.
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Monday, December 07, 2020
What Does Biden Imply for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
America has elected a new President. It was a close race, but Joe Biden eventually won and he will be inaugurated and take office in the White House on January 20. The price of gold rose initially in the aftermath of the elections, only to plunge on the news regarding Pfizer’s vaccine breakthrough, as the chart below shows. This is what we know.But what’s next for the price of gold? What does a Biden presidency mean for the yellow metal? To answer these vital questions, we will analyze the agenda of the President-elect. On the official Biden-Harris Presidential Transition website , we found that the new administration has four priorities: COVID-19, economic recovery, racial equity, and climate change.
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Monday, December 07, 2020
Gold Returns Above $1,800. Has It Bottomed Out? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The price of gold returned to above $1,800. Is the correction over?As the chart below shows, the price of gold rebounded, jumping from $1,763 to $1,811 on Tuesday (December 1) and increased further on Wednesday. As a reminder, the price of gold corrected more than 6 percent in November and almost 15 percent from its peak in August. Now, the key question is whether the worst is behind the gold bulls.
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Saturday, December 05, 2020
Gold, Silver and Copper - The 3 Metallic Amigos and Their Messages / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
Metals Ratios Continue to Indicate Inflation
And that is welcome for monetary and fiscal policymakers of course, since inflation is the only trick they have up their sleeve to bail this mess out once again. And this is no comment on COVID-19. The economy was slowly decelerating last year well before this guy showed up (I like the picture, okay?)…
The yield curve bottomed and turned up in August of 2019 as manufacturing was slipping, long-term yields were tanking and other economic signals were fraying in the wake of the trade war. So please, no convenient COVID excuses.
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Friday, December 04, 2020
Platinum Begins A New Rally – Gold & Silver Will Follow / Commodities / Platinum
By: Chris_Vermeulen
My researcher team and I have highlighted a number of recent articles about Gold and Silver and how we believed the longer-term price activity and technical analysis supported a broad market advance in Precious Metals over the next 5+ years. If not, check out Part I and Part II of our recent Gold and Silver research and price predictions.
Today, we are seeing further evidence that metals are on the move – in Platinum. Platinum has been trading below $1000 for quite a while and this is roughly HALF the price level of Gold. Typically, Platinum rallies before Gold rallies in a traditional trending phase. Platinum rallies because it is used in industrial and other fields – thus it rallies in an advanced market rally phase. Gold begins to rally when a certain level of fear enters the markets or the markets enter a depreciation phase.
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Friday, December 04, 2020
Don't Let the Silver (and Gold) Bull Shake You Off! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Gold and silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a measure of large investor interest, are experiencing outflows as opposed to an almost interrupted inflow over the last few months.
Mining stocks which either look for or produce these metals have been moving sideways, testing the "mettle" of even perma-bulls.
Many investors see these as negative signs. But I view it as a Mr. Market's last big effort to "shake the tree," causing as many people as possible to fall off the galloping bull and head for cover.
As David Morgan has so aptly – and during times like this, often said, "A precious metals' bull run (especially that of silver) will either wear you out our scare you out!
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Friday, December 04, 2020
Stronger Risk Appetite Sends Gold below $1,800 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Gold plunged below $1,800. Will these declines finally end?November doesn’t look like a good month for gold. The declines in the precious metals market continued last week. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal dropped to $1,779 on Friday (November 27).
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Wednesday, December 02, 2020
Gold & the USDX: Correlations / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
It’s crunch time for gold and the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX), as they find themselves at a crossroads. As of Wednesday, the USDX is holding its lows but wants to move up, thus invalidating its breakdown. And gold? Well, gold did gain a bit today, but it’s essentially jumping up in an elevator that’s moving down – it just doesn’t have enough steam to break out.
While it’s been the traditional view that when the US Dollar declines, gold increases in price, we find that's not always the case when comparing historical patterns. And just to watch the price of gold itself when making a buying decision is not enough. One needs to pay attention to the price of gold in relation to moves in the USDX – that helps to indicate the bottom.
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