Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, June 19, 2013
China's Innovation Hurdle Points to Withering Economy / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Mauldin
All weekend long and this morning as I wake up in Monaco, the number of disparate publications screaming at me about problems in China is just overwhelming. Then I get myself up early to hear a speech by the esteemed British economist Charles Dumas of Lombard Street fame, and I am confronted with even more China. I have been watching China for a long time, expecting a crisis, as I readily admit I simply do not understand a country that has defied so many of the economic laws of gravity for so long. Some kind of return to normal economic paradigms seems almost mandated, but the question has always been when. Have the Chinese discovered some new control mechanism, found some different levers to pull that they should share with the rest of the world, or will we see them revert to something that looks more like whatever it is that passes for "normal" these days? My bet has always been the latter.
Sunday, June 16, 2013
Revenge of the Minsky Moment, Economists Are Still Clueless / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is past the ocean is flat again. - John Maynard Keynes, A Tract on Monetary Reform
There can be few fields of human endeavor in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present. - John Kenneth Galbraith
Hitler must have been rather loosely educated, not having learned the lesson of Napoleon's autumn advance on Moscow. - Sir Winston Churchill
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 14, 2013
France’s Economic Cul-De-Sac / Economics / France
By: David_Howden
Over a year ago, in the midst of an ongoing economic crisis, François Hollande celebrated his victory over Nicolas Sarkozy in France’s presidential elections. Hollande became the leader of a country in economic turmoil. In the past year, he has had relatively free rein to carry out his economic agenda, since the Socialist Party he leads has a majority in the French Parliament.
Friday, June 14, 2013
What's Going on with Inflation Today... and What to Do About It / Economics / Inflation
By: DailyWealth
Dr. David Eifrig writes: Every month, about 300,000 Americans celebrate their 65th birthday. This is the age most of us think of when we hear "retirement."
The arch nemesis of those newly minted retirees is inflation.
Most folks looking to retire need safe investment income. This traditionally comes from owning bonds, which pay a fixed rate. But if your income stream is fixed... and the price of goods and services shoots higher... your cash stream is worth less. If you're relying on that income for your retirement, you could be in trouble.
Thursday, June 13, 2013
Iran’s Inflation Bogey / Economics / Inflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
With Friday’s Iranian Presidential election fast approaching, there has been a cascade of reportage in the popular press about that opaque country. When it comes to economic data, Iran has resorted to lying, spinning and concealment – in part, because of its mores and history, and more recently, the ever-tightening international sanctions regime. In short, deception has been the order of the day.
Thursday, June 13, 2013
S&P Credit Ratings Agency Upgrades U.S. Economic Outlook - Wrong Again! / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
If you're not familiar with the term "putting lipstick on a pig," well I think there is an apt example at play again from the people who seem to be experts at applying the lipstick.
Standard and Poor's this week raised the outlook for the U.S. credit rating from "negative" to "stable," citing reduced fiscal risks and policymakers' willingness to sustain growth.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
What’s Really Holding Back the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: InvestmentContrarian
Sasha Cekerevac writes: There continues to be much speculation over when the Federal Reserve will begin to reduce its asset purchase program and lower the level of monetary stimulus. The biggest concern for both the Federal Reserve and the nation is the level of job creation.
Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly report on the level of non-farm job creation, which was as expected: neither too hot nor too cold, with a total of 175,000 new jobs created for the month of May. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, June 7, 2013.)
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
The Risk of Government Economic Policies and the Rationing of Retirement / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
In addition to our own, there is another conference I normally go to every spring; but sadly, I missed it this year. Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates indulges me and lets me attend the annual Research Affiliates Advisory Panel he conducts at some exclusive location (usually but not always) in Southern California, in close proximity to one or more fabulous gourmet establishments. And he is an oenophile of the first rank, a pastime that at one time in my life was a huge attraction. I now just live vicariously when he orders wine.
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
Is Japan's Economy Heading for Another Lost Decade? / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Frank_Shostak
Recently various commentators have been warning Euro-zone policymakers that they needed to boost stimulus policies in order to avoid a Japanese-style lost decade. To support their case, they point to the years 1991 to 2000. The average growth of real GDP in Japan during that period stood at 1.2 percent versus the average growth of 4.7 percent during 1980 to 1990. In terms of industrial production, the average growth stood at 0.1 percent versus 4.1 percent.
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
Is Economic Austerity Responsible for the Crisis in Europe? / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: MISES
Martin Masse writes: Most European economies have been in recession, or close to it, since the beginning of 2012. Unemployment rates are reaching record highs. Meanwhile, a debate has been raging about the deleterious effects of “austerity” measures. Various heads of government, finance ministers, and European Union officials have declared that austerity has gone too far and is preventing a recovery.
Keynesian economists like Paul Krugman are seeing this as unassailable proof that stimulus policies adopted when the financial crisis started in 2008-09 should never have been reversed and replaced by austerity measures, notwithstanding the explosion of public debt that they entailed.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 11, 2013
The Nonsense Behind State Economic Intervention / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Both Keynesians and monetarists believe that increased government spending, or more money injected into the economy, is sometimes necessary. The intervention is in the form of unfunded government spending, artificially low interest rates to boost demand for money and bank credit, or a drive to make the currency “competitive” by lowering it. These methods have been tried unsuccessfully time and again, and they must be denounced if we are to understand our true economic condition.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 11, 2013
Here's Your Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_Pento
Wall St. Pundits have summarily exculpated Ben Bernanke from the negative effects derived from artificial interest rates and massive increase in the Fed's balance sheet. Specifically, most market commentators now claim with certainty that the central bank's unprecedented manipulation of markets has been done without creating any inflation.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 09, 2013
Finding Japanese Optimists in the Demographics of Doom / Economics / Japan Economy
By: John_Mauldin
As kids, not knowing that we were being politically incorrect on so many levels, we would shout “Geronimo!” when we were playing war or getting ready to do something reckless. (For those not familiar, Geronimo was a rather fearsome Apache chief who plagued Mexico and the American cavalry.) Sam Houston and his fellows cried, “Remember the Alamo!” as they rode down upon Santa Ana at San Jacinto. The British went to battle with “God Save the Queen [or King]!” Confederate soldiers took up the rebel yell as they charged live bullets and fixed bayonets. Every good war movie has its own memorable moment of the battle charge.
In Japan, the term Banzai! literally means “ten thousand years” and can be used to wish someone long life and happiness. But during World War II, “Banzai!” was shouted in battle. It was the Japanese equivalent of "Long live the king!" – but to soldiers on the other side it came to mean a suicidal, hell-for-leather attack.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 07, 2013
Massive QE: Economic Death by Insulin Overdose? / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: DK_Matai
When one observes the present market volatility one is minded to think of insulin as a metaphor for QE. Insulin, like Quantitative Easing (QE), in large quantities is a killer. Insulin is much more subtle and effective than arsenic or any other fatal poison. When the victim dies because of a deliberate insulin overdose it is difficult to diagnose the cause of their death in a post-mortem. With arsenic or any other fatal poison it is easy because it leaves traces.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 07, 2013
How the Fed Has the U.S. Economy Hooked on Monetary Cocaine” / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: InvestmentContrarian
George Leong writes: The debates continue on whether the Federal Reserve should or should not begin to take its foot off the money-printing pedal. We will likely find out on June 14, which is when the Fed meets.
I know those seeking income from bonds want higher yields because it’s hard to survive when you are making only about one percent from a five-year U.S. government bond.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 06, 2013
Reckless Expansion of Money Supply Results in Monstrous, Malignant, Moribund Economy / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Richard_Daughty
It was at breakfast that I was explaining my new theory. It goes like this: Since behavior has now been shown to be a function of genetics, and therefore subject to evolutionary pressures, that explains how, when women get to be menopausal, women’s genes notice that it’s now obvious that their deadbeat husbands are not going to impregnate them anymore, and therefore wives ought to get rid of these losers and try, try again with some other guys to test her fertility.
Wednesday, June 05, 2013
U.S. Federal Reserve vs. Small Business / Economics / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Given all the attention that the Federal Reserve has garnered for its monetary “stimulus” programs, it’s perplexing to many that the U.S. has been mired in a credit crunch. After all, conventional wisdom tells us that the Fed’s policies, which have lowered interest rates to almost zero, should have stimulated the creation of credit. This has not been the case, and I’m not surprised.
Tuesday, June 04, 2013
If the Economic Recovery Is Strong, Why Are Lumber Prices Falling? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: InvestmentContrarian
Sasha Cekerevac writes: As we all know, the stock market is in record-setting territory. One would think that this must mean the economic recovery engineered by the Federal Reserve is surely in place, but it’s not. I believe that the economic recovery is far from being assured.
The shocking thing to consider is how many trillions of dollars the Federal Reserve has pumped into the economy, and yet all we have to show for it is this very weak economic recovery. To me, this means that the underlying strength of the economic recovery without the Federal Reserve’s support would be much weaker.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 02, 2013
Deflation Smackdown: Bernanke’s Madcap Money Printing Fails to Boost Inflation / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Whitney
“Under a fiat money system, a government… should always be able to generate increased nominal spending and inflation, even when the short-term nominal interest rate is at zero.” Ben S. Bernanke, “Deflation: Making Sure It Doesn’t Happen Here”, November, 2002
The US economy is in a liquidity trap which means that the demand for credit is weak even though the Fed is increasing the monetary base (via the creation of reserves at the banks) and interest rates are at zero. This is a serious problem. When the private sector (businesses and consumers) reduces its borrowing, activity slows, output shrinks, unemployment rises, and the economy slips into recession. That hasn’t happened yet, mainly because government fiscal support and transfers have kept growth in the black. But there are signs that deflationary pressures are starting to build. The consumer price index (CPI) has dropped for two consecutive months, revolving credit is showing new signs of weakness, and deposits at banks still exceed loans by a significant margin. Add the $85 billion across-the-board budget cuts, (sequester) and the prospects for a second-half double-dip look quite good. Here’s a clip from an article in Reuters that helps to explain what’s going on:
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 02, 2013
More Euro-zone Economic Austerity in face of Record Unemployment / Economics / Unemployment
By: Global_Research
Christoph Dreier writes: Unemployment in the euro zone hit a two-year high in April. According to the latest figures of Europe’s Eurostat statistical agency published on Friday, the unemployment rate rose from 12.1 percent in March to 12.2 percent last month. Fully 24.4 percent of young workers have no job.
The highest jobless rates are found in the southern countries, which have plunged into deep recessions since 2008. At the top of the list is Greece, with an unemployment rate of 27.0 percent, an estimated economic contraction of 4.2 percent this year. A stunning 62.5 percent of youth are out of work.
Read full article... Read full article...