Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, September 17, 2010
H.G. Wells's Socialist Critique of Capitalism / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Paul A. Cantor writes: "One might wonder whether these intellectuals are not sometimes inspired by resentment that they, knowing better what ought to be done, are paid so much less than those whose instructions and activities in fact guide practical affairs. Such literary interpreters of scientific and technological advance, of which H.G. Wells, because of the unusually high quality of his work, would be an excellent example, have done far more to spread the socialist ideal of a centrally directed economy in which each is assigned his due share than have the real scientists from whom they have cadged many of their notions." —Friedrich Hayek, The Fatal Conceit
Friday, September 17, 2010
Brazil's Debt Crisis, if it Does Not Defend Itself Against Financialization / Economics / Brazil
By: Michael_Hudson
The post-1945 mode of global integration has outlived its early promise. It has become exploitative rather than supportive of capital investment, public infrastructure and living standards.
In the sphere of trade, countries need to rebuild their self-sufficiency in food grains and other basic needs. In the financial sphere, the ability of banks to create credit (loans) at almost no cost on their computer keyboards has led North America and Europe to become debt ridden, and now seeks to move into Brazil and other BRIC countries by financing buyouts or lending against their natural resources, real estate, basic infrastructure and industry. Speculators, arbitrageurs and financial institutions using “free money” see these economies as easy pickings. But by obliging countries to defend themselves financially, their predatory credit creation is ending the era of free capital movements.
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Friday, September 17, 2010
Japan’s Economic Problem Is Bigger Than Yen / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Dian_L_Chu
After much speculation and many flying rumors, Japanese government stepped in on Wednesday, Sep. 15 and intervened--sell yen, buy dollar--for the first time in six years. The yen had risen about 10% against the dollar this year, and just reached yet another new 15-year high against the US dollar, an eight-year high against the euro, on Tuesday, Sep. 14.
Friday, September 17, 2010
John’s Economic Worldview / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Doug_Wakefield
Today, we are faced with a period in world history of unprecedented change. Carl Jung, who worked with Sigmund Freud and is known today for his work in humanistic-existential psychology, believed that man perceived change as “death”. Dr. Janice Dorn, who has coached hundreds of professional traders since the mid ‘90s, stated to me in an interview for my December 2006 newsletter entitled Mindgames, that we avoid change because “it is incredibly difficult to shift paradigms, which of course is the way in which we perceived the world.”
Thursday, September 16, 2010
The European Banking Crisis Next Phase, Greek Debt Default Inevitable / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Gary_North
The European banks are still in deep trouble. They are being protected only by the ability of the politicians of the PIIGS to persuade the public that they will be able to maintain interest payments in the near term. Investors care nothing about long-term prospects. They assume that they can sell bad bonds to the next group of naïve investors. Each group assumes that those who follow will be suckers. They regard themselves as sophisticated investors who know what will happen and who will be able to unload the bonds on really stupid investors.
Thursday, September 16, 2010
When Japan's Debt Ridden Economy Collapses / Economics / Japan Economy
By: James_Quinn
Only a partisan two-bit hack economist/liberal rag columnist from an Ivy League University with a Nobel Prize could look at the following two charts and conclude that the Japanese Government failed to revive the Japanese economy over the last twenty years because they spent far too little on fiscal stimulus. Japanese government debt as a percentage of GDP was 52% in 1989, prior to their real estate and stock market crash. Today it stands at 200% of GDP. Current budget projections show the debt reaching 250% of GDP by 2015.
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
U.S. Economy Debt Crisis, the Smoking Ruin Solution / Economics / US Debt
By: David_Galland
David Galland, Managing Director, Casey Research writes: Just last week, it was reported that the turnout for the Democratic primary was the lowest in 80 years. While the Republicans are clearly energized by their concerns about the direction the Democrats are taking the country in, the Democrats themselves seem to have decided to forgo the voting process, perhaps in favor of a refreshing nap.
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Economic Thought in Ancient Greece / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Jesús Huerta de Soto writes: The intellectual odyssey that laid the foundations for Western civilization began in classical Greece. Unfortunately, Greek thinkers failed in their attempt to grasp the essential principles of the spontaneous market order and of the dynamic process of social cooperation which surrounded them. While we must acknowledge the important Greek contributions in the areas of epistemology, logic, ethics, and even the conception of natural law, the Greeks failed miserably to see the need for the development of a discipline, economic science, devoted to the study of the spontaneous processes of social cooperation that comprise the market.
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Investors Keep Eye on Thailand Asian Economic Tiger / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Money_Morning
Jon D. Markman writes: Last week we talked about Singapore and Thailand - two Asian economies that are quietly taking off. Today I want to add to those thoughts with a few more key points that opportunistic U.S. investors should know about Thailand, in particular.
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Tuesday, September 14, 2010
UK Economy Hovers On The Edge As Scholars Debate War And Terrorism / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: Danny_Schechter
LONDON: The British Capital pretty much looked like it did the last time I was here except for all the closed stores and businesses I passed on the way to the War and Media Conference that brought me here.
I am not sure what it will look like the next time I come because the new Tory government is preparing to slash 40% of public funding in an austerity move which is certain to destroy thousands of jobs and inflict pain on the poor and middle class.
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Tuesday, September 14, 2010
UK CPI Inflation Stuck at 3.1% Against Bank of England's Forecast for 1.6% / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK inflation for August 2010 was unchanged at CPI 3.1%, remaining stubbornly above the Bank of England's upper limit of 3% and target of 2%, despite virtually 9 months of mantra from the Governor, Mervyn King that high inflation was ALWAYS just temporary and imminently expected to fall to below the 2% target. The more recognised RPI (real inflation) measure dipped marginally from 4.8% to 4.7% and which compares against average pay rises of 2% which illustrates the squeeze that ordinary people are experiencing especially as taxes rise and state services are cut. The academic economists that populate the mainstream press were again caught off guard as expectations were for CPI to fall to 2.8%, just as they have been caught off guard by high inflation EVERY month for the whole of 2010.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
The Hyperinflation Mirage / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Mike_Whitney
The Fed can create as much money as it likes without any risk of inflation provided the money is tucked away where no one can spend it. And this, in fact, is what the Fed has done. They have exchanged $1.7 trillion in reserves for non performing loans and mortgage-backed securities with the banks. But the banks loan book continues to shrink. In other words, the Fed has increased the money supply, but in real terms, the money supply has shrunk. Thus, the Fed's so called quantitative easing (QE) program has failed to stimulate spending or lead to a credit expansion. Had the Fed chosen to take the $1.7 trillion and bury it in a hole on the White House lawn, the effect would have been exactly the same.
Monday, September 13, 2010
Hyperinflation Against Deflation Debate / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
Over the past few weeks, many people have asked me to comment on John Hussman's August 23, 2010 post Why Quantitative Easing is Likely to Trigger a Collapse of the U.S. Dollar.
Most wanted to know how that article changed my view regarding deflation. It didn't.
Monday, September 13, 2010
China Economy Booms as Farmers Get Access to Credit / Economics / China Economy
By: Shae_Smith
The second stage to the booming Chinese economy is about to begin.And many of the country's farmers, with little more than shacks and eight kids to feed are going to be the driving force behind it.
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Sunday, September 12, 2010
Where Krugman Went Wrong on Economic Stimulus / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Professor_Emeritus
Paul Krugman, writing in The New York Times on September 5 under the title "1938 in 2010", chastizes president Obama's economists once more for doing what they have promised not to do: to repeat the mistakes of president Roosevelt's economists in 1937 in pulling back fiscal stimulus too soon. According to Krugman, while president Obama's policies have limited the damage from the financial crisis to the economy, they have been too timid in opening the spigots to make money flow, as shown by levels of unemployment that is still disastrously high and increasing. He advocates applying more stimulus, nay, a burst of deficit-financing of the same order of magnitudes as that during World War II, which can amount to roughly twice the value of GDP, or $30 trillion.
Sunday, September 12, 2010
Inflation in China Escalates - Miracle Expansion or Bubble to Burst? / Economics / Inflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
The New York Times reports Inflation in China Is Rising at a Fast Pace
Sunday, September 12, 2010
Competitive Currency Devaluations Race, Not Every One Can Run a Trade Surplus / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
The Last Half
But It's More Than the Deficit
Not Everyone Can Run a Surplus
Pity the Greeks
The Competitive Currency Devaluation Raceway
There are a number of economic forces in play in today's world, not all of them working in the same direction, which makes choosing policies particularly difficult. Today we finish what we started last week, the last half of the last chapter I have to write to get a rough draft of my forthcoming book, The End Game. (Right now, though, it appears this will actually be the third chapter.) We will start with a few paragraphs to help you remember where we were (or you can go to http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22482.html to read the first part of the chapter).
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Sunday, September 12, 2010
Western Economies Don't Need a Manufacturing Industry / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Phill_Tomlinson
A common assumption among many commentators is that Western countries need a manufacturing base. We have these trade and budget deficits because we don't 'produce' anything tangible. I suppose 200 years ago the same people would have said we need an agricultural base and not this 'phoney' manufacturing industrialisation many nations embarked towards. I disagree with Peter Schiff, Americans don't need manufacturing any more than a country used to employ huge numbers of the population in the agricultural sector. They just need to do things that other nations can't. The service sector is not a drag on the economy, its a path to further prosperity and represents an increase to a nations living standards.
Saturday, September 11, 2010
Soaring Corporate Profits As US Worker Pay for Productivity Hits Record Lows / Economics / Social Issues
By: Jesse
Two sets of charts tell the story.
The problem is that when workers are pressed to the wall on pay they lose the ability to consume without taking on debt. And at some point the debt leverage mechanism for consumption breaks down.
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Saturday, September 11, 2010
US Ranks Fourth In Global Competitiveness / Economics / Global Economy
By: Jesse
I think the biggest surprise for US readers might be how high the US ranks in global competitiveness, and the countries that rank the highest. And of course there is the absence of China in the top ten. Shocking when viewed through the lens of an artificially managed-to-the-dollar currency pair.