Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, December 19, 2009
2010 The Year of Debt Deleveraging / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
It's All About Deleveraging
Commercial Woes
The Lights Of Myanmar
A Lively 2010 and Buying Stocks
This is the season when pundits feel compelled to make annual forecasts. I will make mine, as I traditionally do, in the first letter of January. But already we have seen a wide range of forecasted outcomes. Are we going to grow at 5-6% or at 1-2% or dip back into recession? Why such disparity? I think part of the reason is a basic disagreement on the nature of the just-lapsed recession. Today we explore that issue. Then I point you to a way to help those who are desperately in need and only wish they had our problems. For those interested, I enclose a picture of my new granddaughter.
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Saturday, December 19, 2009
Revising U.S. Q4 Economic Growth Higher but 2010 Will Still Be Weak / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Largely because of some recently-released economic reports, we have bumped up our real GDP forecast significantly for Q4:2009 and much less so for all of 2010. But we have not changed our fundamental view of the 2010 economic outlook. That view is that the recovery will continue through 2010, but will not be vigorous. Because we expect growth in the first half of 2010 to be slower than it was in the second half of 2009, we would not be surprised to hear the talking heads on CNBC start yapping about a "double dip." They are likely to be wrong, as usual.
Saturday, December 19, 2009
The Greatest Outpouring of Money and Credit from Central Banks and Governments in History / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Bob_Chapman
The past two years have seen the greatest outpouring of money and credit from central banks and governments in history. In most countries interest rates cannot fall much lower being presently under 1% or close to zero. You might call this an attempt at fiat money recovery. As a result of pump priming for the past six months or more investors have returned to the same gambling and risk taking they engaged in before, the losses of which caused the world economy to come to the edge of the financial abyss. All sectors of investment are again affected by a casino mentality.
Saturday, December 19, 2009
Bankruptcy and Fiscal Collapse,Global Economic Crisis Tipping Point Forecast for Spring 2010 / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Global_Research
LEAP/E2020 believes that the global systemic crisis will experience a new tipping point from Spring 2010. Indeed, at that time, the public finances of the major Western countries are going to become unmanageable, as it will simultaneously become clear that new support measures for the economy are needed because of the failure of the various stimuli in 2009 (1), and that the size of budget deficits preclude any significant new expenditures.
Saturday, December 19, 2009
Academic Economists and Futurologists Make Worthless Forecasts 2010 / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Douglas_French
It's that time of the year. Not only are chestnuts roasting over an open fire and Jack Frost nipping at your nose, but whether you ask for it or not, those in the prediction business are rolling out their prognostications for 2010.
Friday, December 18, 2009
China Facing Economic, Financial and Stock Market Crash Scenario / Economics / Financial Crash
By: Mike_Shedlock
Problems in China continue to mount. Money supply is growing rampantly out of control, property prices are in a bubble, exports are weak, commodity speculation is pervasive, and GDP growth is more of a mirage than real.
Friday, December 18, 2009
The Debt Time Bomb / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Puru_Saxena
BIG PICTURE- “It’s a question of how do you achieve the deleveraging. Do you go through a long period of slow growth, high savings and many legal problems or do you accept higher inflation? It would ameliorate the debt bomb and help us work through the deleveraging process” – Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics at Harvard, Former Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund
Thursday, December 17, 2009
German Finance Minister Says "No Alternative But To Borrow" / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Mike_Shedlock
Germany, the last of the stalwarts fighting to heed the European Union’s limit of 3 percent budget deficits, is about to throw in the towel.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Austrian Economists WIn, Keynesians and Friedmanians the Big Intellectual Losers / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Gary_North
Niall Ferguson is an academic hotshot. He is a professor at both Harvard University and the Harvard Business School. This is unique. He is both an economist and an historian. This is rare. He writes very well. He writes widely respected books and very readable articles.
He is also on target about what happened to the American economy in 2009. This is simply astounding.
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Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Rise and Fall in Dubai, An Austrian Economics Perspective / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Fernando_Ulrich
All Is Well - It was January 2008 when I first set foot in Dubai. It was a land full of grandiose, landmark projects. Few cities in the world could match the sheer number of high-rise buildings and skyscrapers being built in the emirate (more than 80 units over 150 meters high are completed or under construction as of this writing).
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
The Inflation Mega-trend and the Illusion of Price Deflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis seeks to get to the heart of the matter to answer the question - Have we experienced Deflation and IF we have are we still in Deflation Now ?
This is the next in a series of articles as part of my unfolding inflationary mega-trend scenario that is an important stepping stone towards the formulation of a inflation forecast for 2010 and beyond. I am to complete the whole scenario and implications of before the end of December which will be published as an ebook that I will make available for FREE. Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get the latest analysis in your email box and check my most recent analysis on the probable inflation mega-trend at http://www.walayatstreet.com
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Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Deflation or Inflation, Which Lurks Around the Corner? / Economics / Deflation
By: Jeff_Clark
In the short term, a catastrophic deflation is quite possible. But in the long term, extremely high levels of inflation are now inevitable. The situation is very serious. Gold is the best hedge against both of these things. The better part of your financial assets should be in gold, augmented by well-thought-out speculations. Doug Casey, November, 2009.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
UK CPI Inflation Soars as RPI Deflation Comes to an Abrupt End / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Inflation mega-trend scenario that I have been writing on during the past month is starting to manifest itself as UK Inflation data for November illustrates showing the Governments preferred CPI inflation surging higher to 1.9% up from 1.5% and RPI reversing October Deflation of -0.8% to now stand at Inflation of +0.3%.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Sovereign Government Debt Defaults Come Full Circle / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The continuation of the bank dominoes took 14 months, but it occurred. The initial destructive impact craters were carved in the United States and England. To be sure, major damage was done to assets in Spain and Greece and other smaller nations in the last year, but their banks had remained insulated. The discredit and death of the central bank franchise system showed first clear evidence in September 2008 on Wall Street. The unique mysterious aspect of banking systems is how they cannot be rebuilt once they turn insolvent. They rot in place, a process accelerated by rotten ethical values, euphemistically called moral hazard. To be sure, much so-called money flows through the dead rotten parts, but nothing becomes resuscitated except balance sheets. And besides, those balance sheets only look better due to accounting rules changes that deviate from mark to market (reality).
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Economic Contraction will Continue in 2010 / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Brian_Bloom
My wife and I watched Oprah interviewing President and Mrs. Obama for her Christmas Special. The closing message that President Obama tried to communicate was one of hope – that the worst is behind us and, with hard work and determination, America can rebuild.Whilst the sentiments are admirable and probably believable in terms of America’s ability to rebuild – and possibly even true – there are serious questions regarding whether the worst is behind us.
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Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Further Misery for UK Savers as Inflation Erodes Value of Savings Pot / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyFacts
Savings rates are still annoyingly low, with the average no notice rate currently at 0.81%, not far above bank base rate.
The recent published inflation figures shows that the real return after basic tax and inflation on an average no notice savings account is at a worrying minus 1.25 per cent, the lowest since May this year.
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Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Fundamental Economic Data for the Week Dec 14-18 / Economics / Global Economy
By: ForexPros
EU:
• Monday: France Current Account (Previous -3.7B, Forecast N/A). Euro-Zone Employment QoQ (Previous -0.5%, Forecast N/A) & YoY (Previous -1.8%, Forecast N/A). Euro-Zone Industrial Production MoM (Previous 0.3%, Forecast -0.7%) & YoY (Previous -12.9%, Forecast -10.8%).
Monday, December 14, 2009
Economic Recovery Mission Not Accomplished / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Peter_Schiff
Although Barack Obama has refrained, at least for now, from delivering triumphant speeches in a naval flight suit, there is nevertheless a strong tone of accomplishment emanating from the President and his deputies. Over the weekend, top White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers even pronounced that the recession is now over.
Monday, December 14, 2009
Stephen Roach Vs Mike Shedlock on Fed's Easy Money Exit Strategy / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Former Fed economist and current Morgan Stanley Asia Chairman Stephen Roach Sees ‘Great Risk’ in Fed Exit Strategy.
Monday, December 14, 2009
U.S. Economy Forecast 2010, The Year of Severe Economic Contraction / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Whitney
Upbeat reports in the financial media, belie the effects of the ongoing credit contraction. Massive injections of central bank liquidity have prevented the collapse of financial markets, but have done nothing to ease the deleveraging of households or stimulate activity the broader economy.