Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Economic Recovery or Economy Resetting At Lower Activity Levels? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Whitney
The financial channels are abuzz with talk of a recovery, but we're not out of the woods yet. In fact, the deceleration in the rate of economic decline is not a sign of recovery at all, but proof that the economy is resetting at a lower level of activity. That means the recession will drag on for some time no matter what the Fed does. The problem is the breakdown in the securitzation markets which has cut off the flow of easy credit to consumers and businesses. The credit-freeze has caused a sharp drop in retail, auto sales, furniture, electronics, travel, global trade etc.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
UK CPI Inflation +2.4%, RPI Deflation -1.2% Hits Forecast Target / Economics / Deflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK RPI Inflation data of minus 1.2% for April 09 represents severe deflation in the official data. Whilst the Governments preferred CPI inflation measure has recorded a smaller decline to 2.3% which still stubbornly puts it above the Bank of England's target rate of 2%. RPI deflation is not surprising given the panic interest rate cuts from 5% at the beginning of October 2008 to just 0.5% by the last cut of March 2009, these cuts in interest rates coupled with quantitative easing aka "money printing" to drive down long-term interest rates and hence mortgage rates is resulting in real deflation for those with large mortgages of as much as minus 5%, therefore this is providing for mini 'temporary' cash flow boom for those mortgage holders that have secure employment during the recession and therefore contributing to the summer bounce in house prices.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Could the Weimar Hyperinflation Happen Again in America? / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Global_Research
Ellen Brown writes: “It was horrible. Horrible! Like lightning it struck. No one was prepared. The shelves in the grocery stores were empty. You could buy nothing with your paper money.” – Harvard University law professor Friedrich Kessler on the Weimar Republic hyperinflation (1993 interview)
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Japans Economy Crashes by 4% in 1st Quarter, Discounted by Stealth Stocks Bull Market / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Japan reported GDP contraction of 4% for the 1st Quarter of 2009 which is the worst fall on record and equates to an annualised crash of 15%. However the fall is less than the widely expected fall of 4.2%, with the stealth stocks bull market continuing to recover from the March lows, which is suggestive of much better data in quarters 2 and 3 of 2009.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Effect of Household Debt Deleveraging on Housing, Consumption and the Stock Market / Economics / US Debt
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are investigating the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco report on Household Deleveraging and Future Consumption Growth.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Debt Crisis Economic End Game, Future Evolution of the Debt-to-GDP Ratio / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Nearly everyone I talk with has the sense that we are at some critical point in our economic and national paths, not just in the US but in the world. One path will lead us back to relative growth and another set of choices leads us down a path which will put a very real drag on economic growth and recovery. For most of us, there is very little we can do (besides vote and lobby) about the actual choices. What we can do is adjust our personal portfolios to be synchronized with the direction of the economy. The question is "What will that direction be?"
Monday, May 18, 2009
The Country Most Likely Heading for Hyperinflation / Economics / HyperInflation
By: DailyWealth
Tom Dyson writes: Mrs. Watanabe is dumping the yen.
According to a story from Bloomberg this week, Japanese businessmen, housewives, and pensioners are dumping the yen against foreign currencies, especially the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, and the euro. Women control the family finances in the typical Japanese household, so the international media has nicknamed the Japanese individual investor "Mrs. Watanabe."
Monday, May 18, 2009
The Economy’s Search for a "New Normal" / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Global_Research
Shamus Cooke writes: When the reality of the economic crisis first made itself known, many who realized what was happening dubbed it “the greatest crisis since the Great Depression.” This description was more than bombast; it was a sober analysis of the immensity of the economic problems in the country — problems that had been building up for years.
Monday, May 18, 2009
2009 The Most Challenging Year for World Economies Since WWII / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Pravda
With overall global economic growth slowing to a near standstill this year, 2009 will be the most challenging year for economies since World War II, according to an International Monetary Fund report.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 17, 2009
Europes' Economy Crashes by 2.5% in 1st Quarter GDP / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Pravda
Europe’s economy contracted at the fastest pace in at least 13 years in the first quarter as companies cut output and jobs to survive the worst global slump in more than six decades.
Gross domestic product in the 16-member euro region dropped 2.5 percent from the fourth quarter, when it fell 1.6 percent, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 16, 2009
Reflation and Stagnation Are Next for the Economy / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Justice_Litle
Mr. Market has begun to show clear signs of split personality disorder in recent weeks. Now that investors have exhaled in relief that a deflationary apocalypse has been avoided, the new reality of reflation and stagnation is sinking in…
“Mr. Market” is starting to show clear signs of split personality disorder.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 15, 2009
Why the Economy Will Recover Differently This Time / Economics / US Economy
By: Hans_Wagner
Eventually the economy will stop declining and start to recover. The manner in which it recovers will provide investors substantial profits if they have a well-founded theme to base their investing strategy. This recession is the result of substantive changes in the economy that will be with us for years to come. Once the recover begins, we should have a good idea how each sector will deal with a stumble along economy. Since the stock market anticipates a recovery by rallying earlier, it is important for investors to be prepared for the changes that are coming.
Friday, May 15, 2009
How the New China ‘Yuan Carry Trade’ Could Accelerate the U.S. Recovery / Economics / China Economy
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: [Editor's Note: Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald is the editor of the new Geiger Index trading service. As the whipsaw trading patterns investors have endured this year have shown, the ongoing global financial crisis has changed the investment game forever.
Friday, May 15, 2009
U.S. Borrow and Spend DownWard Budgetary Spiral / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: Most Americans dread April 15. That’s when we all have to pay the fiddler — or more specifically, Uncle Sam. If you don’t get your tax check in on time, you may get a knock on your door someday from the IRS.
Friday, May 15, 2009
The New Economic Threat From Credit Default Swaps / Economics / Derivatives
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: While the entire U.S. housing market was on the verge of collapse and corporate America was being systemically undermined, regulators purposely looked the other way.
Why would they do this?
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 15, 2009
Wholesale Prices Deflation, Largest 12-Month Decline Since 1950 / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are investigating the Producer Price Indexes For April 2009.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
Imaginary Green Shoots of Economic Recovery Based on Manipulated Statistics / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The so-called ‘Green Shoots’ have been trampled by people walking to their Unemployment Insurance Offices to collect jobless claims in order to pay their bills. The so-called ‘Green Shoots’ have been trampled been people walking (or running) away from their homes as they are being foreclosed. The so-called ‘Green Shoots’ will continue to suffer from most water and nutrients heading to the Elite Gardens, diverted from those on Main Street. The so-called ‘Green Shoots’ have been killed off by a stubborn frost from the US Economy. A prevailing sentiment and motivation has sadly and perversely entered into the public and financial sectors, with clear deceptive intention.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Jump; Continuing Claims Hit 6.5 Million / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
The peak in initial claims might be in but the peak in unemployment is nowhere close. Continuing claims hit 6.56 million, setting a record for the 15th straight week.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
What's Dr. Copper think about the Economy? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Tim_Iacono
Copper prices have now fallen for five days straight, the longest losing streak since the tumultuous period in mid-December when it appeared the whole world was about to come to an end and surging demand for Treasuries pushed the ten-year yield to what can only be described as the "freakishly low" level of 2.0 percent.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
GM and U.S. Going Broke Together / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: LewRockwell
Bill Bonner writes: As GM goes…so goes America…
Uh oh…
Read full article... Read full article...