Analysis Topic: Politics & Social Trends
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, March 30, 2020
US and UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectories vs Bear Market and AI Stocks Sector / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The world is increasingly going into LOCK DOWN, with the latest being India (a lock down mostly in all but name). Still Europe is in lock down, large swaths of the US are increasingly going into lock down that saw a fumbling in the dark President Trump first suggest a quarantine for the entire state of New York and neighbouring states, only to back track a few hours later when the adults in the White House had a quiet word with him thus saving the US from another 10% down trading day Monday!
What's just as worrying as the Coronavirus are the Gestapoesk powers being handed to the Police, it won't be long before the powers start going to their heads and abuse of power starts takes place. At least in the UK usually the worst ordinary citizens are going to face is being tasered, expect far worse in the US a case of shoot first test later policy!
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Sunday, March 29, 2020
Some Positives in a Virus Wracked World / Politics / Social Issues
By: John_Mauldin
It should be pretty obvious that we need to rethink how our supply chains are constructed. The U.S. is running out of something as simple as mouth-testing swabs. It seems the entire world supply is made by two companies.
When asked where I thought those were, I replied “China.” It is worse. They are both in Milan, Italy.
Milan is currently under siege in total lockdown, and the swabs are stranded on the docks in their own kind of quarantine. The link in that supply chain has snapped.
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Sunday, March 29, 2020
An Investment in Life / Politics / Pandemic
By: Patrick_Watson
If you’re following the coronavirus news from home, thank you for helping society through this hard time. Home is where we should all be, except for medical, food, public safety and other such essential workers. Please be careful if you do have to run out for necessities.
None of us have seen anything like this. Even in wartime, there are rear areas and safe zones where people can breathe easily. In this situation, we’re all vulnerable everywhere.
Virus mitigation measures, while necessary, are severely straining the economy. Places like mainland China, Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore show that early, aggressive measures can work. But they come at tremendous cost.
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Sunday, March 29, 2020
Sheffield Coronavirus Pandemic Infections and Deaths Forecast / Politics / Sheffield
By: N_Walayat
So how bad are things about to get in the city of Sheffield which like London and Birmingham is coronavirus hotspot, so it's likely we'll be getting our own temporary Nightingale Hospital probably at the English Institute of Sport or Arena. The starting point for that is likely to happen next is my trend forecast of 22nd March, but first.
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Saturday, March 28, 2020
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The UK government started the ball rolling in announcing a number of measures in attempts at slowing the parabolic curve that the pandemic was on, first of which was to close all schools as of Friday 20th March, which in my opinion was about 2 weeks later than they should have closed the schools. Still in terms of pandemic time line it is about 5 days ahead of when Italy closed all of their schools, so 'should' help resolve towards a better outcome.
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Saturday, March 28, 2020
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast Into End April 2020 / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis concludes in detailed trend forecasts for UK and US Coronavirus Infections and deaths into the end of April 2020. The importance of which being to act as indicators for the primary driver for stock market trend since Mid February. Where as was the case with my preceding forecasts into the end of March, deviations against the Coronavirus trend warned of worse prospects for stock prices as the UK and US FAILED to follow the South Korean model of containing the pandemic, instead either proved completely incompetent in doing nothing despite having had well over a months advance warning of what to expect. Or perhaps by design so as to allow the virus to infect the general population as it was deemed to be impossible to prevent in the long-run given the movement of people, goods and services and so a quick sharp deadly shock was deemed to be the most cost effective solution.
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Friday, March 27, 2020
US and UK Case Fatality Rate Forecast for End April 2020 / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US AND France are on a similar trend trajectory of under testing, thus as I have been warning for a month now that the US has probably a huge pool of infected, circulating and doubling every 3 or 4 days. That I estimated 2 weeks ago to be about ten times the official number to total at least 4000. Where US current tally of 23,000 suggests that the actual number of infected could easily exceed 250,000, more than ten fold the recorded infected number due to the fact the US IS STILL NOT TESTING ENOUGH!
110,000 tests to date is a mere pinprick, the US should be testing that number EVERY DAY!
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Friday, March 27, 2020
The Government's Pandemic Strategy Is a Reckless One / Politics / Pandemic
By: Frank_Hollenbeck
The current coronavirus strategy of most governments is a recipe for a worldwide economic disaster. In many countries, the strategy of confinement and forcing shops to close is a surefire path to large-scale business failures. The cascade of economic and financial repercussions to come is likely to lead to another Great Depression. Italy, for example, already had a 135 percent debt-to-GDP ratio before the crisis. It is hard to imagine how it will be able to borrow more without mutualizing its debt with the rest of the EU—something the northern European countries are still strongly opposed to. The European Central Bank is already printing money like crazy, and if Italy becomes another Greece, the ECB will make it ramp up the printing presses even more.
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Friday, March 27, 2020
Planned-Demic 2020: War on Cash Goes Into Overdrive, New US Digital Currency in Coronavirus Bill / Politics / Pandemic
By: Jeff_Berwick
Another day, another coronavirus story.
The latest and biggest country after China to do a complete shutdown now is India.
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Friday, March 27, 2020
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity, Flattening the Curve and Case Fatality Rate Analysis / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The most probable reason why Britain and the US did nothing during February was due to both nations apparently following the "Herd Immunity" Protocol, which requires approx 60% of the population to become infected so that the virus is no longer able to spread to the remaining population as confirmed by the Chief Scientific Advisor to Boris Johnson's Government who publically stated this objective but refused to discuss the implied death toll.
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Friday, March 27, 2020
NHS Hospitals Before Coronavirus Tsunami Hits (Sheffield), STAY INDOORS FINAL WARNING! / Politics / Pandemic
By: N_Walayat
The Coronavirus Tsunami that is already starting to hit London will reach the city of Sheffield in about 5 days time, ahead of most other UK cities because Sheffield is already a Coronavirus hot spot!
The latest statistics show Sheffield has 240 Coronavirus cases, and if your not already aware that the NHS for some weeks has only been testing patients who turn up ill to hospital. Which translates into a likely pool of over 7000 infected people in Sheffield already. So how much capacity does Sheffield NHS hospitals have to deal with critically ill Coronavirus patients, requiring ventilators to keep them alive?
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Thursday, March 26, 2020
Italy Coronavirus Case Fataility Rate and Infections Trend Analysis / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Italy is in full blown Coronavirus crisis mode that just posted a record 793 deaths! Higher than the worst that China reported (fake numbers). However, where Italy is concerned it's not all bad news, as momentum in the rate of new infections has been slowing for some time, which suggests that by early April Italy's rate of infections should have started to flatten out at about 130,000 infected. So whilst there is a lot more pain to come i.e. Italy's infections numbers are likely set to double once more, nevertheless there is light at the end of Italy's dark tunnel.
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Thursday, March 26, 2020
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock Markets CRASH! / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis seeks to conclude in detailed trend forecasts for US and UK Coronavirus Infections and deaths into the end of April 2020. The importance of which being to act as indicators for the primary driver for stock market trend since Mid February. Where as was the case with my preceding forecasts into the end of March, deviations against the Coronavirus trend warned of worse prospects for stock prices as the UK and US FAILED to follow the South Korean model of containing the pandemic, instead either proved completely incompetent in doing nothing despite having had well over a months advance warning of what to expect. Or perhaps by design so as to allow the virus to infect the general population as it was deemed to be impossible to prevent in the long-run given the movement of people, goods and services and so a quick sharp deadly shock was deemed to be the most cost effective solution.
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Wednesday, March 25, 2020
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity and Flattening the Curve / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The most probable reason why Britain and the US did nothing during February was due to both nations apparently following the "Herd Immunity" Protocol, which requires approx 60% of the population to become infected so that the virus is no longer able to spread to the remaining population as confirmed by the Chief Scientific Advisor to Boris Johnson's Government who publically stated this objective but refused to discuss the implied death toll.
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Wednesday, March 25, 2020
US National Debt is About to Surge Like Never Before! / Politics / US Debt
By: Michael_Pento
The U.S. National Debt is about to surge like never before, along with the rest of the entire planet’s gigantic pile of sovereign IOUs. America started with a $23.5 trillion debt before the Wuhan virus outbreak, with annual deficits running over a $1 trillion; and projected to be at least that amount for the next dozen years. But then, the stock market and economy crashed due to the catalyst of the COVID-19 pandemic, which pricked the massive bubble in junk bonds and equities that I have been warning about for years.
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Wednesday, March 25, 2020
UK Coronavirus Hotspots - Cities with Highest Risks of Getting Infected / Politics / Pandemic
By: N_Walayat
The UK government finally woke up last week to smell the coffee, that their insane policy of aiming for herd immunity was about to result in a catastrophic death toll and so made a series of PANIC announcements to shutdown the whole of the UK in attempts at curbing the exponential curve that the UK had entered. However the rates of infection are not uniform across Britain, so this analysis of several major UK cities reveal there are hotspots and safe zones. Though, bare in mind that the risk of getting infected is always increasing. Nevertheless here is an analysis of the risks of getting infected where the peoples of Sheffield and London should pay special attention to!
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Tuesday, March 24, 2020
WARNING US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic! / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The penny finally appears to have dropped in the US! Where even uber skeptic President Trump has finally had someone read the writing on the wall to him, with the US appearing to start to swing firmly in the right direction, though as the following graph illustrates the damage is likely already done, so the US WILL pay a heavy price for Presidential & Congressional Governmental and CDC NEGLIGENCE that borders on CRIMINAL. Where the US wasted THE WHOLE OF FEBRUARY! The US could have nipped this in the bud as I repeatedly suggested was possible during February, but instead supreme arrogance in monitoring and capability reigned supreme until the stock market started discounting the trend trajectories that were starting to unfold. Remember that the stock market DISCOUNTS the future, it's not going to wait for 100,000 deaths before it nose dives as we have witness take place these past 2 weeks.
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Tuesday, March 24, 2020
Coronavirus Crisis - Weeks Where Decades Happen / Politics / Pandemic
By: James_Quinn
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” ― Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
“A Crisis mood does not guarantee that the new governing policies will be well designed or will work as intended.
To the contrary: Crisis eras are studded with faulty leadership and inept management—from President Lincoln’s poor record of choosing generals to President Roosevelt’s colossal blunders with such alphabet soup agencies as the AAA, NRA, and WPA.
What makes a Crisis special is the public’s willingness to let leaders lead even when they falter and to let authorities be authoritative even when they make mistakes.
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Tuesday, March 24, 2020
UK Coronavirus WARNING - Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My existing forecasts were concluded at a time when there were literally a handful of cases in the UK and US which gave valuable insight into the relative strength or weaknesses of the US and UK actions towards containing Coronavirus outbreaks, my assumptions at the time were that the UK and US would learn lessons from China and South Korea's and so should ne primed for better outcomes.
However, as you are likely aware by now that both nations have been found greatly lacking as became apparent with each passing day that the governments were basically sleep walking towards a Coronavirus apocalypse of sorts that manifested itself in an ever more severe stocks bear market that materialised long before the number of infections started to run into the thousands as forewarned by the Coronavirus deviation against the trend forecasts.
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Monday, March 23, 2020
Coronavirus Clarifies Priorities / Politics / Pandemic
By: Patrick_Watson
Bought any groceries lately? You probably weren’t alone. Nor were you surrounded by crazy people. The store mobs are perfectly rational, given recent events.
We can’t stop the novel coronavirus from spreading. We can slow it down, though, and that may prove critically important. So whether governments order it or not (and they already have in many place), people are staying home as much as possible.
People stuck at home still need to eat. When everyone’s homemade food requirements suddenly and simultaneously increase, grocery stores get busy. That’s math, not panic.
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