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Economic Recovery, I Give Up Soothsaying...

Politics / Recession 2008 - 2010 May 23, 2009 - 02:39 AM GMT

By: Michael_T_Bucci


Well, I am dead wrong and so are most people who contribute to Market Oracle. The people are correct: The economy is "turning around", you can feel the change, people are spending again, the market is up, Obama and the Congress are rescuing us!

In just one month's time, a very dear lady-friend who worried herself into depression because her "business was dropping off", said today: "Business is good, we're getting calls, you can feel things picking-up; but, of course, I know you don't feel that way."

"No," I replied, "a table can only stand on one leg for so long." "But they're building new legs," she patiently assured me.

Another friend, one of forty years, refuses to reply to any emails I send cautioning him about the stock market. A successful 63 year-old CEO in the Mid-West, he is just learning to play the stock market. He is no Joe Kennedy shoeshine boy in his own profession, but was inspired into thinking how he could have doubled his money after watching Sirus go from thirty to sixty cents (its current 52 week range is .05 - 2.75). His rejection of my geo-political soothsaying is further validated now by seeing how wrong I am about the markets. He and my lady-friend simply don't wish to talk to me anymore. I don't blame them. It's Memorial Day weekend.

Almost a year ago, Nadeem published my first contribution to Market Oracle ( That was followed by others that focused on geo-politics as well as the economy. Although I am no expert on either, I am strongest in "intuition", and my intuition hasn't changed since. "Timing is everything" in the markets, but not always "everything" insofar as humans are concerned. The shadows appear behind or after an event, but also AHEAD of an event. Time is often immaterial and misleading, but laws of nature - including human nature - are "everything" and no shadow has changed. And Karma, or sowing and reaping, has not changed either.

At this juncture, it is most important for market people to follow the geo-political forces now at work. If you remain ignorant of them, you are only factoring charts, graphs and numbers, or following a herd. An assassination, a major move by America, China or Russia on the chessboard called the "Great Game", an appointment of a new General to spearhead the Af-Pak theatre, an announcement of energy alliances between competing super-powers... all point to the times ahead, but also point to the potential for catastrophic disruptions of markets from geo-political forces that threaten climaxes. The financial, social, corporate and military sectors work in tandem.

It is not enough to turn away from CNBC market news, one must turn away from all mass media and survey political news too from a global angle by reading and studying the words and actions of major nations in the world, while realizing that all are self-serving.

Most importantly, it is wise to follow your intuition and your heart.

We live in historic times. In America, the period of the next ten years will be more historic than any period in its history. The center of the world is moving from the West to the East. It is too early for nations to understand the great momentous movements that the globe is undergoing.

As the present wave of false optimism wanes and is dashed by a SUDDEN EVENT, the next stage will enter. Each stage is fraught with fear, confusion, sadness, distrust, anger and seeming chaos.

It appears as a great nightfall ahead. And so it will be.

But Day will follow Night, once the cycle is completed.

(This is only the top of the second inning.)

(Dear God, make it easier.)

By Michael T Bucci

Michael T Bucci is a retired public relations executive from New Jersey presently residing in New England. His essays have appeared at Market Oracle and Global Research. He is the author of nine books on practical spirituality including White Book: Cerithous .

    © 2009 Copyright Michael T Bucci - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

    Michael T Bucci Archive

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