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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Gold Stocks are Following This Historical Template / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Roughly one year ago and prior to that we observed that the gold stocks could be following the recovery template from what we deemed a “mega bear market.”

We define that as a bear market that is over two and a half years in time and over 80% in price. It cuts both ways.

The gold stocks from 2011 to January 2016 had declined more than 80% and for more than four years. It was a textbook mega bear market.

The sharp recovery in 2016 quickly faded and left us wondering if there was a historical comparison.

Turns out, there are three strong and relevant comparisons.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Should We Declare Emergency for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Sixteen states sue Trump over border wall emergency. Is it good or bad for the yellow metal?

Trump’s National Emergency and Gold

On Friday, President Trump declared a national emergency to obtain funds for building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, which was his key promise during a campaign. According to the President’s proclamation :

the current situation at the southern border presents a border security and humanitarian crisis that threatens core national security interests and constitutes a national emergency. The southern border is a major entry point for criminals, gang members, and illicit narcotics.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

The Coming Restoration of Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Hubert_Moolman

The way I see it, silver has basically two major categories of use. The first and most important use is as a monetary asset. It is only when used as a monetary asset that it could realize its true (or fair) value.

Currently, it is probably as far away (not time wise though) from being used as a monetary asset, as it has ever been. It is for this reason that silver is so under valued and such a must-buy.

The second is really all other uses that is strictly non-monetary. This is how it is currently (materially) being used. Under this scenario it is just another asset that rises in price when excessive credit (including money printing) is created.

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Commodities

Sunday, February 17, 2019

Fed Chairman Deceives; Precious Metals Mine Supply Threatened / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up Chris Martenson of PeakProsperity.com and famous author of The Crash Crouse and his latest book Prosper! joins me to dissect what’s behind the Yellow Vest movement in France and why the mainstream media and those in power simply don’t want you to know what’s really going on there. Chris also tells us which precious metal he most favors right now. Don’t miss another wonderful interview with the great Chris Martenson, coming up after this week’s market update.

In a recent speech, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell told some real whoppers. We’ll address his misrepresentations head on, in just a bit.

But first, let’s review this week’s market action. Despite drama in Washington over averting a government shutdown and prompting President Donald Trump to declare a national emergency on the border, nothing too dramatic is happening in the gold market. 

Prices are trading in a tight range, coming in essentially unchanged from last Friday’s close. Gold currently trades at $1,316 per ounce.

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Commodities

Friday, February 15, 2019

Plunging Inventories have Zinc Bulls Ready to Run / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: Richard_Mills

On Tuesday zinc inventories in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses sunk into territory that one metal analyst believes could signal a major price kick for the base metal, used mostly for galvanizing steel to prevent corrosion.

The one-year chart below shows LME inventories falling steadily, touching the 108,425-tonne mark as of Feb. 11 - a 52-week low. It’s a long way from the annual high of 256,175 tonnes reached in August.

Cormark Securities mining analyst Stefan Ioannou said last fall that if zinc supply drops 2,000 to 3,000 tonnes a day it would be a very bullish price signal, especially if inventories go as low as 100,000 tonnes. The one-week chart shows zinc inventories dropping from 112,750 tonnes on Feb. 5 to 108,500t on Feb 11 - a fall of 4,250 tonnes, and within only 8,000 tonnes of Ioannou’s100,000t target zone.

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Commodities

Friday, February 15, 2019

Gold Stocks Mega Mergers Are Bad for Shareholders / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The world’s two biggest gold miners both announced mega-mergers over the past 5 months or so.  These huge deals briefly garnered some interest in the usually-forgotten gold-stock sector, and fleeting praise from Wall Street analysts.  But gold-stock mega-mergers are bad news for gold-miner shareholders on all sides.  They reveal the serious struggles of major gold miners, and really retard future upside in their stocks.

For decades the largest gold miners in the world have been Newmont Mining (NEM) and Barrick Gold (ABX).  These behemoths have long dwarfed all their peers in operational scope.  While the gold miners are in the process of reporting Q4’18 results now, their latest complete set remains Q3’18’s.  As after every quarterly earnings season, I analyzed them in depth for the major gold miners of GDX back in mid-November.

The GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF is the world’s leading and dominant gold-stock investment vehicle.  In Q3 alone NEM and ABX mined a staggering 1286k and 1149k ounces of gold!  To put this in perspective, the average of the next 8 largest gold miners rounding out the top 10 was just 508k ounces.  Newmont and Barrick have long been in a league of their own, with commensurate market capitalizations.

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Commodities

Friday, February 15, 2019

Is Gold Market 2019 Like 2016? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Have you even wanted to travel in time? You can, at least when reading about the gold market. Many analysts claim that this year is like 2016 for the gold market. We invite you to read our today’s article about the similarities and differences between the precious metals market then and today and find out what do they imply for the gold prices.

Finally, the scientists have invented the time machine! This is at least what we hear from many people: that we went back in time to 2016. Indeed, there are certain similarities between the precious metals market then and today. What are they – and what do they imply for the gold prices?

Let’s look at the chart below, which shows the price of the yellow metal since December 2015. As one can see, gold has rallied since December 2018, just like three years earlier.

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Commodities

Friday, February 15, 2019

Gold is on the Verge of a Bull-run and Here's Why / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Umer_Mahmood

The majority of gold traders are very bearish on the gold market currently. The sentiment could signal a start of a possible jump in price for the precious metal.

If you are also expecting such a price shift, you might want to consider buying the SPDR Gold Shares ( a fund holding bullion bars).
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Commodities

Wednesday, February 13, 2019

Will 2019 be the Year of the Big Breakout for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Michael_J_Kosares

In each of the last three years, gold has gotten off to a strong start only to fizzle as the year moved along.  Will 2019 be the year gold finally breaks the pattern? A good many investors, fund managers and analysts think that 2019 might very well be the year when gold breaks the restraints and pushes to higher ground.  One of those is Carter Worth of Cornerstone Macro in New York who CNBC’s Melissa Lee refers to as “the chart master.”  In a recent interview with Lee, Worth referred to the long-term chart below saying that there is “a well-defined set-up and a lot of tension” which he says is going to resolve to the upside – “a breakout to all-time highs.”  With respect to gold’s relationship to the dollar, Worth says “Gold’s got its own momentum now. . .It is all setting-up for higher gold prices and trouble for equities, trouble for the economy.”

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, February 13, 2019

Where Is Gold’s Rally in Response to USD Weakness? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Yesterday, the USD Index moved substantially lower while precious metals barely yawned. Why is gold not rallying? What does the gold-USD link tell us now, in combination with latest developments throughout the PMs sector? Let’s examine these and many more clues together.

Almost nothing happened yesterday in gold and silver, while miners moved a bit lower. The latter is a bearish indication, but not the most important one that we saw. The key issue is that what happened in the gold-USD link showed that gold was previously not showing strength with regard to the US currency. Yesterday’s action confirmed our yesterday’s thoughts on that matter. We explained the reasoning behind the lack of decline in gold in light of USD’s rally in the following way:

One reason might be that gold is simply showing strength, as it doesn’t want to move lower – it’s waiting for factors on which it could rally. But we don’t think that this the correct interpretation. There are multiple long-term bearish factors that remain in place and thus it seems that there might be a different interpretation. And there is. Actually, there are two reasons due to which this might be the case.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 12, 2019

Key Support Levels for Gold Miners & Gold Juniors / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Gold stocks have to do more to confirm they are in a new bull market.

Sure, they’ve surged above key moving average resistance and breadth has improved.

However, the gold stocks have not yet broken the pattern of lower highs and breadth, while improved, is not at bull market levels yet. Let’s review where things currently stand.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 12, 2019

Gold Market in 2019: WGC versus LBMA / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Both the WGC and LBMA published outlooks for the global economy and gold market in 2019. Who is right?

WGC’s Outlook for Gold in 2019

Let’s start from the World Gold Council (WGC) which published its 2019 outlook on January 10th. As befits the organization representing industry’s interests, the WGC is bullish on gold prices. No surprises here. According to the institution, the following trends will mainly shape the gold market in 2019: financial market instability, monetary policy and the US dollar, and structural economic reforms.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 12, 2019

Gold Prices Continue to Breakdown / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

On January 28, 2019, our research team issued a research post indicating we believed that Precious Metals would rotate lower over the next 45+ days in preparation for a momentum base/breakout that would initiate sometime near the end of April or early May. Recent price weakness in Gold has begun to confirm our analysis and we believe this price weakness will continue for the next 2~4 weeks while traders identify a price bottom and hammer out a momentum base/support level.

Gold is currently down another -1% this week and testing the $1307 level after rotating back to near $1320.  Our analysis continues to suggest price weakness in the Precious Metals markets going forward for at least 2~3 more weeks.  We are expecting the price of Gold to fall below $1290 and ultimately, potentially, test the $1260 level where we believe true support will be found.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Monday, February 11, 2019

Financial Sector Calls Gold ‘Shiny Poo.’ Are They Worried? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up Larry Parks of the Foundation of the Advancement of Monetary Education joins me for an eye-opening discussion on our nation’s growing monetary problems and what you can do to help in the vital cause of bringing gold back into the nation’s consciousness. Larry also talks about the massive dangers our nation’s pension funds are facing. Don’t miss a must-hear interview with Larry Parks, one of the foremost experts on sound money, coming up after this week’s market update.

Gold and silver markets are pulling back a bit this week on the heels of U.S. dollar strength.

The dollar is benefiting from weakness in European currencies. Brexit uncertainties and downbeat economic forecasts for the European Union are weighing on the euro.

The corresponding dollar rally helped pull gold prices back down near the $1,300 support level in early trading Thursday. As of this Friday recording, gold trades at $1,314 an ounce – down a slight 0.3% for the week. Silver checks in at $15.79 to post a weekly decline of 0.9%. Platinum prices are off 3.5% to come in at an even $800. And finally, palladium is showing impressive relative strength, yet again – up 2.6% this week to bring spot prices to $1,396 per ounce.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Sunday, February 10, 2019

Gold Stocks Gather Steam / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold stocks’ young upleg is gathering steam, marching steadily to higher lows and higher highs.  These bullish technicals are gradually improving sentiment, fueling mounting interest in this contrarian sector.  That’s helping the gold stocks regain lost ground relative to gold, the driver of their profits.  Fundamentals are growing more favorable as gold itself powers higher.  All this portends much-bigger gold-stock gains coming.

Despite a strong rebound upleg in recent months, the gold miners’ stocks are still flying under the radars of most speculators and investors.  They aren’t aware the gold stocks are running again, and likely don’t realize how massive gold-stock uplegs can grow.  That’s unfortunate, because the biggest gains are won early in young uplegs before they are universally recognized.  Buying low early on is the key to multiplying wealth.

The most-popular gold-stock benchmark these days is the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  It was launched way back in May 2006, giving it a first-mover advantage that has grown into an insurmountable lead.  This week GDX’s net assets of $10.5b were a colossal 52.4x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners-ETF competitor!  GDX is the lens through which most traders now view gold-stock fortunes.

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Commodities

Saturday, February 09, 2019

Are Gold Bulls Naively Optimistic? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Kelsey_Williams

Are gold bulls naively optimistic? They are certainly optimistic; at least as regards their expectation for higher gold prices. But is that all that is needed to make them happy?

If gold marches higher from here, does that signify that all is well?  Would the gurus and wanna-be millionaires be proven correct if gold were priced at $10,000.00 per ounce?

We could ask when. But if those who expect big things for gold are correct, then when might not matter. 

Let’s say you want to buy a stock – any stock – that is priced at 13. You have done your due diligence and you are convinced that it can go to 100.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Saturday, February 09, 2019

Gold, Silver Precious Metals Update / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

I reserve most of the work on precious metals for NFTRH weekly reports and in-week updates because it is done on a consistent basis, with the work done previously key to the narrative making sense in real time and going forward. In other words, in order to not be out there stabbing in the dark you need to have an ongoing, adjustable plan that makes sense at all times with the macro markets around it.

So that said, let’s take a snapshot of where things stand currently with the understanding that this work will need future updates, which will probably not be made publicly. It is up to the reader to do the work required to put context to the picture. Meanwhile, this will free up more space in next week’s NFTRH 538 to focus on some quality miner charts, which sometimes take a back seat to the macro/sector stuff.

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Commodities

Friday, February 08, 2019

20 Year of Eurozone and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The old continent is dying. The euro is on the brink of collapse. This is what you can often hear in the press. But is that really the case? We invite you to read our today’s article about the development of the Eurozone in the last twenty years and find out what are the real prospect of the euro – and what does it imply for the gold market.

In December, we celebrated 40 years of market reforms in China. In January, there was another important anniversary: 20 years of the euro area. So, let’s move from East Asia to Europe, analyzing the economic situation of the Eurozone and its implications for gold.

After years of negotiations and preparations, the euro was launched on January 1st, 1999. Initially, the shared currency was only virtual, and the national currencies were still legal tenders used in circulation. For ordinary citizens little changed. However, the exchange rates between national currencies were locked at fixed rates against each other, while the European Central Bank took control over their monetary policy. The euro notes and coins entered the circulation three years later.

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Commodities

Friday, February 08, 2019

Gold Market Extremes Test Your Mettle / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

This article was originally published on Sun Feb 3 for members of ElliottWaveTrader: Extremes are the hallmark of the metals market. And those that handle the extremes best are usually the ones who do best in the metals market.

Consider the extremes we experienced in August and September of 2011. Gold had days where it would rally $50 in a single day during its final parabolic move. Moreover, everyone you spoke with would express their certainty that gold would soon eclipse the $2,000 mark, on its way to much higher levels.

Yet, I remained steadfast in my analysis which suggested the $1,915 region would provide us with a top. While the market continued $6 higher than my expectation, I think we all recognize what occurred at that time.

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Commodities

Thursday, February 07, 2019

The Battle for Venezuela’s Gold Serves as a Lesson in Counterparty Risk / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

He who controls the gold makes the rules. That old adage applies aptly to the present crisis in Venezuela.

An international battle for control of Venezuela’s gold is currently underway. At stake is the country’s political future – and with it, the global market for its immense oil reserves.

In a desperate effort to cling to power, Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro has been depleting his country’s gold reserves.

The oil-rich nation once had gold reserves of over 160 tons. But in recent months, Venezuela has sold off dozens of tons of gold to allies such as Turkey, United Arab Emirates, and Russia in exchange for euros and other globally recognized currencies.

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