Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Sunday, November 03, 2024

Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks are heading into their winter rally, when strong seasonal tailwinds help boost their advances.  This is especially pronounced when gold stocks’ primary drivers of sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals are bullish, which is certainly true today.  This sector is nearing a psychological tipping point of surging popularity, making secular breakouts, and earning record profits fueled by these record gold prices.

Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year.  While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behaviors driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals.  We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions.  The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.

Monday, October 28, 2024

At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Hubert_Moolman

The current setup on the silver chart is a lot like the start of the silver bull market of the early 2000s. In those days silver was under $5 and considered cheap.

The current bottoming pattern from around 2014 to now is very similar to the early 2000s bottoming pattern (see the chart below).

Sunday, October 27, 2024

This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Hubert_Moolman

Since the creation of the Federal Reserve, the Dow Jones has significantly outperformed silver.
It was only during brief periods before the 1919 and 1980 silver peaks that silver was able to outperform the Dow (see the Dow/Silver chart below).

Monday, September 30, 2024

Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: EWI

Dear Reader,

Gold might be losing out to stocks when it comes to headlines. But, the precious metal also just hit all-time highs and did it in style -- rocketing 35% in seven months.

Sunday, September 22, 2024

Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Submissions

When the Federal Reserve decides to slash interest rates, it sets off a domino effect in the financial world, and precious metals like gold and silver are among the first to feel the impact. Yesterday, we saw a 0.50% cut, so it’s time to revisit how these metals have historically performed… and let’s just say, they’ve put on quite the show.

The Golden (and Silver) Truth About Fed Rate Cuts

Since 2000, gold and silver have shown a knack for appreciating when the Fed cuts rates by a full half percentage point. Here’s a look at how they’ve danced to the Fed’s tune:

Thursday, September 12, 2024

Gold’s Outlook CPI Data / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The CPI data is going to be released today, so the markets are tense.

Gold's Gains Limited by Short-Term Resistance

Gold moved slightly higher, but the very short-term resistance line based on the previous highs keeps gold’s gains in check.

Sunday, September 08, 2024

Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is Set Up To Shine / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Avi_Gilburt

When I think about the metals market, I chuckle as it has obliterated just about every expectation many have had about what drives the market.

We have seen metals decline during a strong inflationary period in 2022, wherein most were expecting it to rally alongside inflation. We have seen metals rally alongside the US Dollar, when most were expecting it to move in the opposite direction to the dollar. And, we have seen rallies surprise many market participants due to a “lack of clear catalyst.”

Well, anyone that has followed my work through the years should not be surprised. I have attempted time and again to outline the many fallacies propagated throughout the metals market, while also outlining the most accurate manner in which you should track the metals. To this end, those that have followed along through the years recognize the accuracy of our work.

Sunday, September 08, 2024

Precious Metals Shine in August: Gold and Silver Surge Ahead / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Submissions

As the summer winds down, investors are keeping a close eye on the precious metals market. August proved to be a stellar month for both gold and silver, with gold prices rising a solid 3.5% and silver not far behind at 3.2%.

But what does the future hold? Well, according to Bank of America, the outlook is positively golden. In a recent note to clients, the bank stated, “We believe gold can hit $3,000/oz over the next 12-18 months…”. That’s a nice 20% move up from here. If silver holds its 3x typical ratio, that’s $50 silver, which we wrote on two weeks back.

Speaking of Bank of America, strategists have a bold prediction for investors: commodities are the way to go for the rest of the 2020s. In a recent note, they argue that a “commodity bull is just starting” due to a structural rise in inflation. “Commodities are a better bet than bonds for the rest of the 2020s.”

Sunday, September 08, 2024

Gold’s Demand Comeback / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Zeal_LLC

This gold bull’s latest upleg has proven mighty, surging to many new nominal record highs.  Amazingly gold’s massive gains have accrued despite no demand from one of its primary drivers.  That’s differential gold-ETF-share buying by American stock investors.  Enthralled by the AI stock bubble, those guys have been missing-in-action.  When they finally return, gold’s demand comeback will supercharge its gains.

The great majority of gold’s price trends have long been driven by speculators’ gold-futures trading and/or investors’ gold-ETF-share trading.  I’ve analyzed this extensively in recent decades, discussing the latest trends of both primary drivers in countless essays and subscription newsletters.  Understanding what both groups of gold-dominating traders are doing is essential for profitably gaming gold’s upleg-correction cycles.

Born in early October 2023, today’s gold upleg has blasted up 38.7% at best over 10.8 months now!  In early December, gold achieved its first nominal record close in 3.3 years.  Since then 28 more records have been written into the books, an incredible run by any standards!  Gold’s upleg is now on the verge of powering up 40%+ into monster status.  Remarkably this has happened with one hand tied behind its back.

Sunday, September 08, 2024

Gold’s Quick Reversal and Copper’s Major Indications / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Copper is definitely the most important industrial metal out there.

Freeport-McMoRan Reflects Market Trends

In the entire commodity sector, only crude oil is more widely used. And given the increasing importance of all-things-electronic, copper is unlikely to be forgotten anytime soon. This doesn’t mean that the only way in which its price can move is up (far from it), but it does indicate that this market is likely linked to multiple other markets – also to gold price.

Friday, September 06, 2024

Crude Oil’s Sign for Gold Investors / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: P_Radomski_CFA

So, the GDXJ plunged about 5% yesterday, and it refused to get back up, even though gold price did.

Friday, September 06, 2024

GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM MINING SHARES / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024

By: Kelsey_Williams

No amount of wishful thinking and baseless proclamations will change that. Owning gold stocks (miners) instead of the actual physical metal (in other words, processed and refined with appropriate hallmarks and in tradable form) is a losing bet. Investors should ignore the siren song of gold mining shares.

At their highs last week, gold stocks had increased eighty percent from their lows just two years ago. If you had bought then, and held through a thirty percent drop in 2023, you would be up about seventy percent at current prices.  That compares very favorably to gold which was up fifty-five percent over the same period. Congratulations if you benefited from that.

Friday, August 23, 2024

What happened to the Fed’s Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Richard_Mills

As the richest nation and the world’s largest economy, it is hardly a surprise that the United States holds the most gold.

What is surprising is where the gold isn’t: the United States Federal Reserve, known colloquially as the central bank.

Mainstream media dutifully reports that the American central bank is number one out of the top 10 gold depositories in the world. Its 8,133 metric tons are worth a staggering $630 billion at USD$2,2200/oz.

Friday, August 23, 2024

Will Electric Vehicles Be the Killer App for Silver? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: MoneyMetals

Industrial demand for silver has been surging in recent years. Solar panel manufacturers were largely behind the 11% jump in demand for 2023 versus the prior year. Forecasters predict another 9% jump this year.

For silver investors, however, the future of demand from manufacturers may be even brighter than the recent past.

The solar industry has been behind much of the growing appetite for silver.

Friday, August 23, 2024

Gold Mid-Tier Mining Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024

By: Zeal_LLC

The mid-tier and junior gold miners in this sector’s sweet spot for upside potential just finished reporting truly-spectacular quarterly results.  Fueled by dazzling record gold prices and lower mining costs, smaller gold miners’ unit earnings skyrocketed to their highest levels ever.  Those incredibly-rich profits have left mid-tiers even more undervalued relative to prevailing gold prices, portending massive catch-up rallying.

The leading mid-tier-gold-stock benchmark is the GDXJ VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF.  With $5.5b in net assets mid-week, it remains the second-largest gold-stock ETF after its big brother GDX.  That is dominated by far-larger major gold miners, though there is much overlap between these ETFs’ holdings.  Still misleadingly named, GDXJ is overwhelmingly a mid-tier gold-stock ETF with juniors having little weighting.

Gold-stock tiers are defined by miners’ annual production rates in ounces of gold.  Small juniors have little sub-300k outputs, medium mid-tiers run 300k to 1,000k, large majors yield over 1,000k, and huge super-majors operate at vast scales exceeding 2,000k.  Translated into quarterly terms, these thresholds shake out under 75k, 75k to 250k, 250k+, and 500k+.  Today only three of GDXJ’s 25 biggest holdings are true juniors!

Saturday, August 17, 2024

Gold Prices: The calm before a record run / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: EWI

The basis for analysis and forecasting at Elliott Wave International is fundamentally different from everyone else’s.

Here's a prime example in gold.

This excerpt is from the March Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, when gold was trading below $2,050/oz.

Saturday, August 17, 2024

Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024

By: Zeal_LLC

The major gold miners just reported their best quarterly results ever!  Record gold prices combined with lower mining costs catapulted unit earnings to dazzling new records.  Yet despite exploding profitability, gold stocks continue to lag gold’s mighty upleg.  This anomaly won’t last, as investors increasingly realize how seriously undervalued this sector remains.  The resulting capital inflows will drive gold stocks way higher.

The GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF remains this sector’s dominant benchmark.  Birthed way back in May 2006, GDX has parlayed its first-mover advantage into an insurmountable lead.  Its $14.0b of net assets mid-week dwarfed the next-largest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF by nearly 25x!  GDX is undisputedly the trading vehicle of choice in this sector, with the world’s biggest gold miners commanding most of its weighting.

Gold-stock tiers are defined by miners’ annual production rates in ounces of gold.  Small juniors have little sub-300k outputs, medium mid-tiers run 300k to 1,000k, large majors yield over 1,000k, and huge super-majors operate at vast scales exceeding 2,000k.  Translated into quarterly terms, these thresholds shake out under 75k, 75k to 250k, 250k+, and 500k+.  Those two largest categories account for nearly 4/7ths of GDX.

Thursday, August 15, 2024

How Gold Can Save the US Dollar / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: MoneyMetals

Can we save the dollar before central banking kills it?

Our deficits are now stuck at 8% of GDP — unprecedented in peacetime. And our national debt just hit $35 trillion — unprecedented in the history of man.

Even the central bankers realize that this isn't sustainable. That we are coming to the day our paper money utopia crumbles.

Historically, from Song Dynasty China to Weimar Germany, when paper dies we return to hard money. Because backing the dollar with hard money like gold -- and eventually Bitcoin -- is the only way to finally kill the money printer.

Monday, August 12, 2024

Gold Supply Falling Short of Market Demand / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Richard_Mills

It’s been a volatile week in the markets.

On Monday, Aug. 5, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 1,000 points, and the S&P 500 dropped 3%, resulting in the worst day for both indexes since September 2022. 

The sell-off was blamed on factors ranging from worries about the economy and the slow response from the Federal Reserve, regarding interest rate cuts, to the unwind of a popular global currency trade and concerns over corporate earnings, CNBC said.

(The “carry trade” involves borrowing in cheap currencies such as the Japanese yen and buying higher-yielding currencies. It has helped to supply markets with liquidity.)

Monday, August 12, 2024

Gold’s Minsky Moment / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Richard_Mills

A “Minsky Moment” refers to a point in time when a period of bullish speculation leads to a spectacular market crash.

Named after economist Hyman Minsky, the theory centers around the inherent instability of stock markets.