Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, February 18, 2025
Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold and Silver Markets Brief / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day you get access to my latest market brief that was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups . https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
<<< Market Brief - 17th Feb 2025 - Risk is to the Upside >>>
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Tuesday, February 18, 2025
Harnessing Market Insights to Drive Financial Success / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Understanding market dynamics is essential for businesses and investors aiming to thrive in a competitive and ever-changing economic landscape. While many struggle to interpret and utilise the vast data available, effectively harnessing market insights can help identify trends, adapt strategies, and anticipate risks. This approach not only promotes growth but also ensures long-term sustainability amidst economic uncertainties.
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Tuesday, February 11, 2025
Stock Market Bubble 2025 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So that there is no confusion stocks are very over valued right now with the S&P trading on a PE of 22,7, even the Fed gets this as indicated in the November Financial Stability Report.
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Tuesday, February 11, 2025
Global Liquidity Prepares to Fire Bull Market Booster Rockets / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System
By: Nadeem_Walayat
China set the ball rolling with their $140 billion of stimulus with much more to come during 2025, then we had the first of a series of Fed rate cuts adding fuel to the fire and next is the Incoming Trump money printing binge that is going act to fire booster rockets under all asset markets. Remember we live within the US Empires global financial system where all roads lead back to the US Dollar.
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Tuesday, February 11, 2025
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: A Long-Term Bear Market Is Simply Impossible Today / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Avi_Gilburt
In a number of past articles, I have tried to prepare those reading my analysis for the strong probability that we can see a long-term bear market. I have outlined the many reasons supporting my perspective, and have provided a few supporting charts in various prior public articles.
But, I will tell you that the pushback I have seen that this is even “possible” is much greater than I had expected. Many commenters have provided one reason after another as to not only why it is not likely, but, in their minds, it is simply not even possible. While I have addressed all their reasons in various prior articles, I doubt they really care. Too many investors are seemingly going through their investing careers while donning blinders.
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Tuesday, February 11, 2025
A Stock Market Chart That’s Out of This World / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: EWI
Valuations Are at the Furthest Edge of the Financial Solar System
By Robert Prechter, excerpted from the January 2025 Elliott Wave Theorist.
Figure 1 updates our history of year-end valuations for stocks of S&P companies on two bases: price to book value (Y axis) and dividend yield (X axis). I thought the year-end 2021 overvaluation would never be surpassed. But as you can see, the year-end 2024 reading is both higher and further to the right. It is the highest multiple ever recorded for S&P Industrials’ price to book value and the fifth-lowest level for the S&P Composite’s dividend yield, the four lower readings all occurring in 1998-2001.
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Tuesday, February 11, 2025
S&P 500: Dangerous Fragility Near Record High / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Submissions
Owen Williams writes: In one of the strongest bull markets in history, the S&P 500 hit 57 record closing highs in 2024 after a stunning initial move higher off the Q4 2023 lows. Many pundits have been skeptical of the equity bull market for some time. Initially, with the inverted Treasury yield curve, economists had been forecasting a recession in 2024. Then came the artificial intelligence (AI) euphoria, with a market carried higher by only a handful of stocks dubbed “the Magnificent Seven”. Most recently, the skeptics have pointed to the historically rich equity valuations. None of these concerns have mattered. Narratives derive markets, and the AI revolution and concomitant productivity gains, perhaps coupled with the prospects for a stronger U.S. economy under Trump, have seriously taken hold of investors’ spirits. When it seems that everyone is singing from the same song sheet, we plug our ears and look objectively at the evidence that we see. Yes, equity valuations are historically very stretched and fund manager positioning is very aggressive. But these are not useful timing indicators as both have been true for most of 2024. The fragility we see is in various market indicators that may be suggesting that the bull run, at least temporarily, is ready for some corrective price action. In this article we present the internal weaknesses that our models are detecting in the U.S. equity markets. While the past never repeats itself exactly, many of the setups in our market indicators today look eerily similar to those witnessed prior to other major equity sell-offs.
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Monday, February 10, 2025
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Get High on Donald Trump Pump / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This article Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Get High on Donald Trump Pump was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups . https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Monday, February 10, 2025
Bitcoin Break Out, MSTR Rocket to the Moon! AI Tech Stocks Earnings Season / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US President has NO REAL POWER - Over the decades the Deep State Military Industrial Complex has eroded what power the office of the President had as Eisenhower warned would happen when he left office in 1961.
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Saturday, February 08, 2025
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto's Under President Donald Pump / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This article Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups . https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Saturday, February 08, 2025
Transition to a New Global Monetary System / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System
By: Raymond_Matison
Our current/old system
The last systemic or significant change in our Federal Reserve’s monetary policy occurred in 1971, when gold backing to our dollar was completely removed, and the United States transitioned to a centralized, completely fiat monetary system. While president Nixon is generally attributed for this action, in reality it was the previous decade’s government spending for wars and public social programs that forced this decision.
Since 1971, budget deficits have grown as national debt has exploded to what recently is now generally recognized by everyone to be at an unsustainable level. The official national debt (according to the National Debt Clock) at $36.3 trillion excludes the nation’s unfunded liabilities exceeding $222 trillion, which represents approved government programs for which no financial provisions have been made. In addition, just the present interest costs on our official debt alone exceeds $1 trillion per year, which is larger what ironically is called our defense rather than offense budget. Since governments always operate with budget deficits, it is guaranteed that our national debt and its servicing costs will continue to rise until the monetary system spirals out of control and destroys the nation’s currency. This is not something expected to occur decades in the future, but rather something that could occur at any time - only requiring an unexpected event to set it off.
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Sunday, February 02, 2025
President Black Swan Slithers into the Year of the Snake, Chaos Rules! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Did you enjoy Monday's black swan panic event that caught everyone by surprise? MSM needed a reason to explain why to it's audience and so plucked deepseek as a likely reason for the sell off in stocks and crypto's despite the R1 model having been released a week earlier!
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Monday, January 27, 2025
Trump's Squid Game America, a Year of Black Swans and Bull Market Pumps / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
FLASH CRASH! Stocks and cryptos are plunging catching everyone off guard! Are enjoying the Black Swan Panic Event that you had 4 days advance warning of to prepare to capitalise upon? :)
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Thursday, January 23, 2025
Japan Interest Rate Hike - Black Swan Panic Event Incoming? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day, you get access to my most recent market brief as sent to Patrons Thursday Morning (23rd Jan).
Stock Market Brief - Possible Black Swan Event at 2am GMT 24th Jan 2024.
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Sunday, January 12, 2025
It's Five Nights at Freddy's Again! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day, you get access to my most recent market brief as sent to Patrons Sunday 12th.
Early 2025 stock market rally evaporates triggering much doom and gloom though the S&P is barely changed on the start of the year! We have got pretty much a repeat of a year ago i.e. Santa rally fail, first five days down, that got folk into a bit of panic as the likes of Hirsch had talked up his incoming Trifecta SELL Signal on a Down January which prompted me to do the following Five Nights at Freddy's article -
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Sunday, January 05, 2025
Squid Game Stock Market 2025 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
The S&P ends 2024 at 5881 up an epic 23% on the year virtually a repeat of the +24% for 2023, and down 2.75% on the month which is contrary to the seasonal pattern for Decembers. In fact 2024 has been a year of contrary to seasonal price trends, i.e. April was down when it should have been Up, September was Up when it should have been Down and now December is down when it should have been Up, so Investing in the stock market during 2024 was a bit like playing Squid Game, every investor thinks they know with certainty that they will win with their perfect buys but most got killed or were left on the sidelines as the watched the market do the opposite of what they were expecting it to do, the key lesson being to be positioned for the market to either go up or down whilst maintaining exposure to the BULL MARKET as despite all of the fear and fomo the stock market managed to snake it's way to an epic gain of 23% for the year! What more could investors have asked for from 2024? The fact that despite this many are still disappointed speaks volumes of how difficult investing actually is practice vs folk thinking it will be easy money, if you find yourself disappointed despite a 23% gain then what are you going to be like during a down year?
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Friday, December 27, 2024
Stock Market Bubble Drivers, Crypto Exit Strategy During Musk Presidency / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Counting down to year end and continuing pump into President Musk's inauguration that should see stocks and crypto's pump to new highs, with perhaps First Lady Donald giving us all a twirl on the dance floor.
Sunday, December 22, 2024
Stock Market Rip the Face Off the Bears Rally! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
We are now into the time frame for a santa rally that runs from Monday into early January, 2024 has been another great year for AI tech stocks whilst most focus on the indices nothing burgers be it the S&P or Nasdaq (which I don't pay any attention to).
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Sunday, December 22, 2024
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Why Do We Rely On News / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Avi_Gilburt
Well, that was quite the eventful week. We had a Fed announcement, and all the market geniuses were quick to attribute the cause of the 3% decline to the Fed announcement. However, this is nothing more than a foolish and very superficial perspective, which evidences their lack of true understanding of how our markets work.
As I have said often, while news can act as a catalyst for a market move, the substance of the news is really irrelevant in determining the direction of the move. In fact, we have seen many moves through market history which have not even been supported by the news. In fact, in1988 there was a study conducted by Cutler, Poterba, and Summers entitled “What Moves Stock Prices,” which supports my perspective.
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Friday, December 20, 2024
THEY DON'T RING THE BELL AT THE CRPTO MARKET TOP! / Stock-Markets / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Latest Market Brief 20th Dec 2024
Crypto's are dumping, Bitcoin $94k, Solana $180, Doge $0.28, AVAX $34, COIN $260 can be very enticing to buy the dip for the next FOMO rally but I have always considered crypto's to be fairy dust, easy come easy go, so this is a warning that the TOP for crypto's could be in, so as I've been saying in the comments I would be very wary of buying the dip as the plan since the Trump pump began has been to disinvest from crypto's. Those who have followed should by now should have banked profits, I mean my exit strategy in recent articles could not have made things any clearer of what I am doing.
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