Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, September 17, 2024
US Population Growth Rate / Economics / Demographics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It should not come as any surprise that the US population continues to grow, rebounding strongly from the pandemic pause in immigration which acts as a cushion against the falling fertility rate that currently stands at 1.66 which is below the replacement rate of 2.1 so obviously the gap is being filled by immigrants as is the case with most western nations with a growing population such as Britain which has a fertility rate of 1.55 vs the EU at 1.46 and those that bark the loudest about immigrants Poland and Hungary are dying the fastest not only because they have a low fertility rate but also that many millions of their young have migrated abroad with some 2 million Poles having settled in the UK alone, in total Poland has lost 1/5th of it's population to emigration. Poland as much of Eastern Europe is dying unlike Western Europe which is at the heart of the basket case that is called the European Union.
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Sunday, September 08, 2024
RECESSION When Yield Curve Uninverts / Economics / Inverted Yield Curve
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A good reliable signaler for a recession and the next bear market will be when the yield curve uninverts. Whilst nothing is a done deal, however this signal is 90% reliable so on such a signal it would be wise to at least reduce exposure to over valued stocks heading towards uninversion. .Whilst also being prepared to ride out whatever a potential bear market delivers in better valued stocks where the risk is one of the recession changing the metrics as companies MISS earnings and thus become more expensive as their stock prices fall. That is the risk of investing in the stock market, a balancing act of mainlining exposure whilst riding temporary dips as one is acting without the benefit of hindsight.
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Thursday, August 15, 2024
What's So Great About 2 Percent Inflation? / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Don’t be fooled when you hear “inflation is coming down.” That's not the plan and it never was.
The fact is price inflation was up in July.
And it will be up in August.
And it will be up in September.
That’s because rising price inflation is the Federal Reserve’s stated policy.
Tuesday, August 13, 2024
Are we Slipping into a Recession? / Economics / Recession 2024
By: Stephen_McBride
That’s the question on every investor’s mind right now. Because recessions are bad for stocks.
In today’s Jolt, I’ll walk you through what the three most accurate recession indicators are telling us… and suggest what to do about it.
Let’s get after it.
Wednesday, June 26, 2024
Inflation – How It Started And Where We Are Now / Economics / Inflation
By: Kelsey_Williams
INFLATION – HOW IT ALL STARTED
Early ruling monarchs would ‘clip ’ small pieces of the coins they accumulated through taxes and other levies against their subjects. The clipped pieces were melted down and fabricated into new coins. All of the coins were then returned to circulation. The clipped coins circulated side by side with other coins and all were assumed to be equal in value.
As the process evolved, more and more clipped coins showed up in circulation. People became suspicious and were reluctant to accept the clipped coins at full face value. Their concern prompted the ruling powers to reduce the precious metal content of the coins. This lowered the cost to fabricate and issue new coins. Soon, all of the coins in circulation had less precious metal content. Hence, there was no need to clip the coins anymore.
Sunday, June 16, 2024
Inflation Is Dead! Or Is It? / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Strike up the band and wave the victory banners! Inflation is dead!
Or is it?
The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was cause for optimism. But price inflation is like that stubborn weed in the driveway. Just when you think you’ve killed it for good, it pokes back through a crack.
Keep in mind that this time last year, we were also talking about a victory over inflation.
Tuesday, May 28, 2024
US Economy Slowing Slipping into Recession, But Not There Yet / Economics / Recession 2024
By: Michael_Pento
The recent spate of economic data continues to point to a weakening economy, but one that is not yet precipitously falling into recession.
The Philly Fed Index was released late last week. The diffusion index for current general activity declined 11 points to 4.5 in May. The index for new orders declined from 12.2 to -7.9, its first negative reading since February, and the shipments index fell from 19.1 to -1.2, its first negative reading since January. We also had US industrial production data released this week. It was flat in April from the previous month, while factory output fell by 0.3%.
Friday, May 10, 2024
Biden's Bureau of Labor Statistics is Cooking Jobs Reports / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: MoneyMetals
Last Friday’s Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report showed that U.S. employers added some 175,000 jobs in April.
But while April’s numbers captured most of the headlines, the same jobs report also contained downward revisions for earlier this year, with the BLS admitting that “employment in February and March combined is 22,000 lower than previously reported.”
Monday, April 08, 2024
Media Elite Belittle Inflation Struggles of Ordinary Americans / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
A top writer for the Wall Street Journal thinks Americans who complain about the economy just aren't aware of how good things are.
Chief Economics Commentator Greg Ip wrote a gaslighting article last week with the headline, "What's Wrong With the Economy? It's You, Not the Data."
The article begins with the claim that Americans just don't have the facts on inflation.
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Monday, March 18, 2024
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions / Economics / US Presidential Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis posted in January 2023 that despite MSM hysteria strongly suggested that there would be NO recession during 2023, as there had never been a recession during a pre-election year. Whilst the highest risk is that the recession materialises during 2025, though both 2024 and 2026 are equally high recession risk years.
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Monday, March 18, 2024
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! / Economics / Recession 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Yes it is a a big fat con because the US has already posted 2 quarters of negative GDP in 2022 Q1 and Q2 , what can you do? This is the world we inhabit of fake economic data, the Fed does not like CPI, lets run with the much lower PCE, 5% instead of 8% inflation! What a con!
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Thursday, February 29, 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic / Economics / Unemployment
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst everyone focuses on the unemployment rate as a gauge for economic activity, however the statistic has been engineered to the extent to become meaningless as shadow stats illustrates.
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Saturday, February 17, 2024
Why Rising Shipping Costs Won't Cause Inflation / Economics / Global Economy
By: MoneyMetals
Defining inflation as "rising prices" creates all kinds of confusion.
As I explained in-depth, historically, inflation meant an increase in the amount of money and credit in the economy, or more succinctly, an expansion in the money supply. Rising consumer prices - price inflation - is one symptom of this monetary inflation.
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Friday, January 19, 2024
Toward China's Soft Economic Rebound / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Last year, international observers charged China for global inflation, deflation and economic collapse. In reality, Chinese economy is inching toward a soft rebound, despite the dire global landscape.As global business and political leaders swarmed to Davos for the World Economic Forum, Chinese Premier Li Qiang took the podium. Chinese economy has rebounded and moved upward, Li noted, and was estimated to have grown around 5.2% in 2023. That’s slightly better than the official target of around 5%.
No matter how the world’s situation changes, Li added. China will adhere to its fundamental national policy of opening up, and its door will only get wider and wider.” he said.
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Saturday, November 04, 2023
A Recession is Brewing / Economics / Recession 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A reminder that a recession is brewing as illustrated by the US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions analysis (Stock Market Gasping to Reach 4000 Ahead of Earnings Season, Dow New All Time High 2023?)
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Friday, November 03, 2023
FED Loads of Money! / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
S&P Measuring Move
Rally from 4333 to 4540 is 207 points, 4333 - 207 points = 4126. Not a forecast rather another piece of the puzzle eyeballing sub 4200, and my long standing objective of 4150 as being probable.
So stock market eyes sub 4200, and eying achieving 4150 with possibility of overshoot to just under 4100 over the next 4 to 6 weeks. Therefore the market is primed to snap back inline with my trend forecast by means of taking a significant tumble over the coming weeks where we can all look for catalysts for but the forecast remains blind to all that has transpired since it was posted 10 months ago!
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Friday, September 22, 2023
The Full Employment Lie / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Today's narrative is that the Fed needs to force unemployment higher to cause demand destruction to bring inflation under control. Only one problem is that just as CPI is a FAKE inflation measure so is the Unemployment rate. They have fiddled the stats to such an extent that today's 3.6% unemployment is more like 10% for your grandfathers unemployment as shadow stats once more illustrates, Just look at the spread between REAL unemployment and fake UNEMPLIE 25% vs 3.6%! Seriously they are taking the piss, treating the masses like idiots! Unfortunately the Econofools perpetuate this LIE across MSM, so there you have it US unemployment rate is a lot closer to 25% than 3.65%
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Thursday, September 07, 2023
Why US Annual Budget Deficits Are Getting Worse / Economics / US Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The pandemic a once in a 100 year event sparked rampant deficit spending to bailout the economy, that was 2020, whilst 2021 was nearly as bad! And 2022 did show an improvement by reverting back to pre-pandemic deficit era extremes. However the 2023 deficit is once more ramping up and running at twice the pre-pandemic extreme rate.
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Wednesday, September 06, 2023
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions / Economics / Recession 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As my analysis of Jan 2023 pointed out (Stock Market Gasping to Reach 4000 Ahead of Earnings Season, Dow New All Time High 2023?)
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Monday, September 04, 2023
Yield Curve Inversion and Recessions / Economics / Recession 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Apparently the yield curve inversion has a 100% hit rate, whenever a yield curve inverts it has always resulted in a recession.
Only problem is that it can take anywhere from 6 months to 3 years for the recession to materialise! Thus is another one of those nothing burgers that most analysts obsess over. For instance take the current inversion as of March 2022, those who swallowed the recession is coming mantra have been sat in money market accounts for the last 9 months whilst stocks such as META first doubled, then tripled and look set to quadruple, what kind of *****-A-Doodle-Doo indicator is the yield curve inversion? Which is why I don't tend to pay it much attention, given that it is pretty much useless in terms of investing.
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