Best Financial Markets Analysis Article A week or so ago we gave the short term view of silver that a decent sized top was in. Our first choice Elliott wave pattern (see below) looked complete as you can see from the chart we reproduce below. We had an alternate wave count which would be invalidated if it went below $14.80. That has now happened so the first choice count is vindicated.

The new situation is shown below and the question naturally is what are we correcting here? The impulse wave which ran from mid April to early June is either wave 1 of a bigger impulse wave or it is a sub wave of a corrective wave which we call "A" here. Obviously being only wave 1 of 5 in a larger impulse would send silver well above the $21 highs of last year but we do not think that is the case for now. The depth of the current correction will answer that question in due course. I have an idea where this drop may end up but I am sure it is the prelude to higher highs (larger correction or not - just not as great as a mega impulse wave).

From a purely Fibonacci point of view (not the only tool we rely on thankfully), the 50% retracement is at $13.91 - we have seen as low as $14.05 so far. The 38% retrace was taken out at $14.40.

After this correction ends it is one final push up and then into a final multi-month correction phase.

By Richard Shaw
http://www.qvmgroup.com

Richard Shaw leads the QVM team as President of QVM Group. Richard has extensive investment industry experience including serving on the board of directors of two large investment management companies, including Aberdeen Asset Management (listed London Stock Exchange) and as a charter investor and director of Lending Tree ( download short professional profile ). He provides portfolio design and management services to individual and corporate clients. He also edits the QVM investment blog. His writings are generally republished by SeekingAlpha and Reuters and are linked to sites such as Kiplinger and Yahoo Finance and other sites. He is a 1970 graduate of Dartmouth College.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilizing methods believed reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Do your own due diligence.

Richard Shaw Archive

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.