Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
S&P 500 – Is a 5% Correction Enough? - 6th Dec 21
Global Stock Markets It’s Do-Or-Die Time - 6th Dec 21
Hawks Triumph, Doves Lose, Gold Bulls Cry! - 6th Dec 21
How Stock Investors Can Cash in on President Biden’s new Climate Plan - 6th Dec 21
The Lithium Tech That Could Send The EV Boom Into Overdrive - 6th Dec 21
How Stagflation Effects Stocks - 5th Dec 21
Bitcoin FLASH CRASH! Cryptos Blood Bath as Exchanges Run Stops, An Early Christmas Present for Some? - 5th Dec 21
TESCO Pre Omicron Panic Christmas Decorations Festive Shop 2021 - 5th Dec 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 4th Dec 21
INVESTING LESSON - Give your Portfolio Some Breathing Space - 4th Dec 21
Don’t Get Yourself Into a Bull Trap With Gold - 4th Dec 21
GOLD HAS LOTS OF POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE - 4th Dec 21
4 Tips To Help You Take Better Care Of Your Personal Finances- 4th Dec 21
What Is A Golden Cross Pattern In Trading? - 4th Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - Part 2 - 3rd Dec 21
Stock Market Major Turning Point Taking Place - 3rd Dec 21
The Masters of the Universe and Gold - 3rd Dec 21
This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions - 3rd Dec 21
Will the Glasgow Summit (COP26) Affect Energy Prices? - 3rd Dec 21
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - 30th Nov 21
Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets - 30th Nov 21
Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn - 30th Nov 21
Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave - 30th Nov 21
Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December - 30th Nov 21
Crypto Market Analysis: What Trading Will Look Like in 2022 for Novice and Veteran Traders? - 30th Nov 21
Best Stocks for Investing to Profit form the Metaverse and Get Rich - 29th Nov 21
Should You Invest In Real Estate In 2021? - 29th Nov 21
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Indexes Confirm Strength into 2010

Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis Dec 02, 2009 - 04:32 AM GMT

By: Jim_Curry

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGoing back to the mid-July period of 2009, the time cycle work that I track had confirmed the 07/08/09 low as a combination bottom with the 45 and 90-day cycles. Using a statistical analysis of the larger 90-day component, the probabilities favored that this particular cycle would not see it's following peak made prior to the late-September or early-October period - and thus the assumption was that the SPX was headed toward the low-1100 level or better into October.


After moving into the October, 2009 period, there was then a larger combination bottom with both the 90 and 180-day components that was due around mid-November, but with a plus or minus of approximately 2 weeks in either direction - due to the variance larger 180-day cycle. In terms of price, a normal 90/180-day downward phase will usually see a decline of 10%-or-better off the top - and thus the expectation was for a potential decline in this range before our larger combination low was finished. The actual decline ended up being in the range of 6.5%, which fell short of expectations - possibly due to the positive seasonality.

Key resistance for the month of November was noted at or near the 1069 level on a closing basis - which was the monthly projected resistance high for the SPX CASH index. When prices closed on this figure at the closing of trading on 11/06/09, then there was the potential for our 90 and 180-day combination bottom to be in place; this was then confirmed the very next trading session.

With the above, our larger 90 and 180-day combination wave is now deemed to be headed upward into January of 2010, as shown on the updated forecast wave below:

Even with our larger bottom confirmed in place on 11/9/09, in our daily outlooks I did note that a secondary low would likely be seen in the late-November timeframe - due to a nominal 20-day cycle that was projected to bottom near the November 27th period. The minor cycle forecast chart (below) suggested this low well ahead of time:

The expectation for the downward phase of the 20-day component is that it would see a retracement back to or below the 18-day moving average - which this cycle will do better than 95% of the time before bottoming out.

Right now, the minor cycle forecast is looking for continued strength in the coming days. This minor cycle forecast is essentially unchanged from what it was projecting back in September, and the market has followed the roadmap extremely well since this time.

Stepping back, the basic suggestion for the mid-term picture is for higher highs to be made into January, 2010. There is an outstanding upside target from the 45-day cycle to the 1130.09 - 1153.63 level on the SPX; this range is also likely to be the area that tops this same 45-day component.

For the longer-term, the key figure for the SPX is the 1122 level (closing basis). That number is the approximate 50% retracement of the entire move down from the October, 2007 high to the March, 2009 bottom. That is, it will take a firm daily close above this level for the larger 90 and 180-day cycles to gain momentum into the Spring of 2010 (where the 180-day component is next set to peak). Otherwise, holding below the same will continue to keep the action very choppy (sideways) for the near-term.

Stepping back even further, 2010 is setting up for what should be a very important peak - one that should top the entire countertrend retracement off the March, 2009 bottom. That top should then give way to an eventual breach of the 666.79 low on the SPX - ideally to move on down to a longer-term 'swing support' area at the 580-620 level on this index. There is a much-larger 36-year wave that is projected to bottom in the late-2010 timeframe - but which could easily stretch out into 2011 or 2012, simply based on the very large average variance with this particular cycle. More on this in a future article.

By Jim Curry
Market Turns Advisory
email: jcurry@cycle-wave.com
website: http://cyclewave.homestead.com

Jim Curry is the editor and publisher of Market Turns advisory, which specializes in using cyclical analysis to time the markets. To be added to our mailing list click HERE

Disclaimer - The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. The foregoing has been prepared solely
for informational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research and data believed reliable,
but there is no guarantee that future results will be profitable. The methods used to form opinions are highly probable and as you follow them for some time you
can gain confidence in them. The market can and will do the unexpected, use the sell stops provided to assist in risk avoidance. Not responsible for errors or
omissions. Copyright 1998-2007, Jim Curry

JIm Curry Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

TraderJoe
02 Dec 09, 09:53
Cycles?
Jim Are you moving the cycles to fit the subsquent price action ? What you put up 3 weeks ago


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in