Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Why Most Investors LOST Money by Investing in ARK FUNDS - 27th Jan 22
The “play-to-earn” trend taking the crypto world by storm - 27th Jan 22
Quantum AI Stocks Investing Priority - 26th Jan 22
Is Everyone Going To Be Right About This Stocks Bear Market?- 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Glass Half Empty or Half Full? - 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Quoted As Saying 'The Reports Of My Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated' - 26th Jan 22
The Synthetic Dividend Option To Generate Profits - 26th Jan 22
The Beginner's Guide to Credit Repair - 26th Jan 22
AI Tech Stocks State Going into the CRASH and Capitalising on the Metaverse - 25th Jan 22
Stock Market Relief Rally, Maybe? - 25th Jan 22
Why Gold’s Latest Rally Is Nothing to Get Excited About - 25th Jan 22
Gold Slides and Rebounds in 2022 - 25th Jan 22
Gold; a stellar picture - 25th Jan 22
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! - 22nd Jan 22
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? - 22nd Jan 22
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego - 22nd Jan 22
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
WARNING - AI STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR SWITCH TRIGGERED! - 19th Jan 22
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Dow Theory and Stock Market Update

Stock-Markets / Dow Theory Aug 11, 2007 - 11:46 AM GMT

By: Tim_Wood

Stock-Markets

Many proclaim that the recent decline below the June 2007 lows by the Industrials and the Transports served to trigger a Dow theory sell signal. Based on the evidence as I read the averages, this is not the case.

The extended advance up out of the 2002/2003 lows has proven to be one of the longest advances in stock market history. As a result, it has proven that the single most important aspect of Dow theory is price and that what we may perceive as value or a given market phasing is in fact secondary. In other words, price itself is the single most important aspect of Dow theory and the old time Dow theorists knew it.


In Robert Rhea's work titled The Story of the Averages , it is made very clear by the numerous examples that confirmation of a Primary up trend occurs when both averages better their previous Secondary High Point and that a Primary down trend is established when both averages violate their previous Secondary Low Point.

Moving on to the chart below and according to this basic principle of Dow theory, the Primary Trend turned up, or in Rhea's words it was “authoritatively established as bullish,” way back in June 2003 when the 2002 Secondary highs were bettered. Since that time the averages have made six consecutively higher advances. Each of these advances have established yet a higher Secondary High and Low Point with the last joint closing high that occurred on July 19 th having marked the 6 th Secondary High Point since the 2002/2003 lows. Many are looking at the joint decline below the June 2007 lows as having violated the previous Secondary Low Point and thereby confirming the Primary Trend as being down.

I do not believe this to be correct because the June lows were not, in my opinion, sufficient enough to be classified as having marked a Secondary Low Point. It is my belief that the decline from the July 19 th joint high marked the beginning of the decline into a new Secondary Low Point. Thus, the market is still fishing for the next Secondary Low Point and at this time the previous Secondary Low point also remains intact. Therefore, from my perspective of Dow theory, the Primary Trend remains bullish.

We also find in Robert Rhea's writings this specific quote about the transition between bull and bear markets. “Under Dow's theory the primary trend, once authoritatively established as bullish, is considered to be continuing in force until negated by a confirmed bearish indication such as would be the case when, after a reaction of full secondary proportions in a bull market, a rally fails to lift both averages to new high ground, and a later decline carries both averages below the preceding secondary low.”

If we apply what Rhea is saying here to the current market, the averages would first have to establish a Secondary Low Point, which again I believe it is now doing. Then, from that low the averages will have to fail to better the July 19 th highs and then turn down below the Secondary Lows that are now being established in order to confirm that the Primary Trend has turned from bullish to bearish.

Therefore, based on the fact that the averages have not yet violated their previous Secondary Low Points nor have the averages experienced a failed rally followed by a decline below their previous Secondary Low Points, I cannot find justification to say that the Primary Trend, in accordance to the Dow theory, has turned bearish.

Now, looking at the market from a cyclical and statistical perspective, which has absolutely nothing to do with Dow theory, all indications continue to suggest that the market is extremely over extended in what has now become the second longest advancing 4-year cycle in stock market history. The Dow theory simply has not confirmed a Primary Trend change at this point. Anyway, this extended move has obviously been fueled by the liquidity campaign to keep the market advancing.

However, even the Fed can only do so much. The intermediate-term internals have been fading as the markets “broke out” into their recent new highs. New lows are registering readings not seen in years and the intermediate-term breadth indicators that I follow have been weak for months. The issue now is that the market has become so stretched on such weak internals that it is becoming increasingly harder to keep the advance going. I believe that the Fed understands the house of cards very well and an example of this came with the massive liquidity infusion reported by CNBC on Thursday when the market once again began to soften. There are two noteworthy points to be made here. One, the Fed knows the danger of the market and stepped in with the liquidity to try to save it on Thursday, but it still fell some 387 points.

So, it is getting harder and harder to save. Two, if the market wasn't at great risk do you think the Fed would be taking the measures that they are? No, they are afraid to let any reasonable correction begin because they know the risk of an implosion. Maybe the market can be saved again and maybe it can't. But, it really doesn't matter because even if it is saved again, it will be on even worse internals and create even greater complacency. The market is stretched well beyond any historical norm and this cannot continue forever. Ultimately the Fed is fighting a losing battle. The internals stink and the decline into the now very extended 4-year cycle low is coming and there will ultimately be nothing the Fed can do to stop it. You have been warned!

I have begun doing free Friday market commentary that is available to everyone at www.cyclesman.com/Articles.htm so please begin joining me there. Should you be interested in analysis that provides intermediate-term turn points utilizing the Cycle Turn Indicator on stock market, the dollar, bonds, gold, silver, oil, gasoline, the XAU and more, then please visit www.cyclesman.com for more details. A subscription includes access to the monthly issues of Cycles News & Views covering the Dow theory, and very detailed statistical based analysis plus updates 3 times a week

By Tim Wood
Cyclesman.com

© 2007 Cycles News & Views; All Rights Reserved
Tim Wood specialises in Dow Theory and Cycles Analysis - Should you be interested in analysis that provides intermediate-term turn points utilizing the Cycle Turn Indicator as well as coverage on the Dow theory, other price quantification methods and all the statistical data surrounding the 4-year cycle, then please visit www.cyclesman.com for more details. A subscription includes access to the monthly issues of Cycles News & Views covering the stock market, the dollar, bonds and gold. I also cover other areas of interest at important turn points such as gasoline, oil, silver, the XAU and recently I have even covered corn. I also provide updates 3 times a week plus additional weekend updates on the Cycle Turn Indicator on most all areas of concern. I also give specific expectations for turn points of the short, intermediate and longer-term cycles based on historical quantification.

Tim Wood Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in