Best Financial Markets Analysis Article Earlier this year, following a clear break lower, it looked as though bears in the EUR/CHF cross rate were running out of steam. However, a second wind saw a fresh move south which does, in fact, look like a blow-off move, with recovery prospects improved.

The FX Trader’s view

WEEKLY CHART:

The latest slip back saw a breach of the 1.4296 Oct-09 low, but it is proving a struggle to hold below this.

A lower Fibo projection at 1.4040 stays out of reach for now.

Note the recent type of ‘doji’ week on this candlestick chart, a week of apparent indecision with open and close near the same level.

DAILY CHART:

In the Commodity Specialist Guide we had previously suggested that a final, blow-off bear move was being seen.

At this stage, though, the recovery to the 23.6% level of the whole Mar-09/Apr-10 decline now needs to be followed by a break/close above, in order to suggest a better rebound phase is underway.

Then note next target around the 1.4640 38.2% level, which interestingly is near last month’s breakdown point (probably no coincidence, given the underlying Fibonacci forces at work – for that matter note how the Dec-09 break point corresponds with 76.4%).

Along the way resistance from the 1.4559/76 prior lows area could have some effect.

In case of s/term pullback keep in mind the support point around the 1.4229 24-Mar low.

Mark Sturdy
John Lewis

Seven Days Ahead
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Mark Sturdy, John Lewis & Philip Allwright, write exclusively for Seven Days Ahead a regulated financial advisor selling professional-level technical and macro analysis and high-performing trade recommendations with detailed risk control for banks, hedge funds, and expert private investors around the world. Check out our subscriptions.

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Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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