Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Why Most Investors LOST Money by Investing in ARK FUNDS - 27th Jan 22
The “play-to-earn” trend taking the crypto world by storm - 27th Jan 22
Quantum AI Stocks Investing Priority - 26th Jan 22
Is Everyone Going To Be Right About This Stocks Bear Market?- 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Glass Half Empty or Half Full? - 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Quoted As Saying 'The Reports Of My Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated' - 26th Jan 22
The Synthetic Dividend Option To Generate Profits - 26th Jan 22
The Beginner's Guide to Credit Repair - 26th Jan 22
AI Tech Stocks State Going into the CRASH and Capitalising on the Metaverse - 25th Jan 22
Stock Market Relief Rally, Maybe? - 25th Jan 22
Why Gold’s Latest Rally Is Nothing to Get Excited About - 25th Jan 22
Gold Slides and Rebounds in 2022 - 25th Jan 22
Gold; a stellar picture - 25th Jan 22
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! - 22nd Jan 22
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? - 22nd Jan 22
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego - 22nd Jan 22
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Sell Signals Abound, VIX Spikes Higher, XLF Says Good-bye to Support

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Apr 28, 2010 - 02:28 AM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski


Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAgain Today on Financial Overhaul Bill - The U.S. Senate will take a second vote today on Democrats’ effort to overcome Republican objections and begin debate on financial-overhaul legislation.

“What are you afraid of?” Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada said to Republicans on the Senate floor today, arguing that the proposal can be amended during debate. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, responded by saying, “This bill isn’t ready” and that more negotiations are needed.

Earnings Update: Ex-Financials There Are No Upside Revenue Surprises

Much has been said on TV about the "great" earnings season so far. The truth is that exfinancials the upside EPS factor is just 10%. This is driven purely by ongoing cost-cutting and layoffs. What is much more relevant is the top-line. And there again, ex-financials, the upside surprise, is... zero. As David Rosenberg puts it, "In other words, outside of financials, revenues are just meeting analyst expectations. In a nutshell, the impressive earnings surprises, thus far, is being driven by Financials cost surprises (including write offs)." And why are financials beating so heartily? Because they are all reducing loss allowances on their books, when their whole books are based on mark to myth.

VIX broke above its prior high.

-- The VIX broke above its prior high and stayed above short-term Trend Support at 17.59. The new uptrend in VIX is now confirmed. The CBOE Put-Call Ratio for equities ($CPCE) rose to .79 today. Retail investors are facing today’s stock decline like deer in the headlights. Strangely enough, the pros have cut back on the $CPCI to 1.36 (less bearish) at the end of the day. The 10-day average is still high at 1.49. The NYSE Hi-Lo index close down 476 today to 167, putting it on a sell signal.

SPY now rests at intermediate-term Trend Support.

Action: Sell/Short/Inverse -- SPY broke through short-term Trend Support/Resistance at 120.04 and closed just above intermediateterm Trend Support at 118.18. The pivot has turned into a full-fledged reversal. The selling continues in the afterhours.

Normally we would see a bounce here at intermediate-term Trend Support. However, I would not rely on “normal” expectations to guide us here. I cannot predict what will happen overnight, so we must stay the course. What may surprise you is that the next cycle low is due by this coming Monday, so there is not a lot of time for this decline.

The QQQQ breaks short-term Trend Support/Resistance.

Action: Sell/Short/Inverse -- This time it should stick. QQQQ did not make it to intermediate-term Trend Support at 48.65, but it is a lot closer. Volume came back as selling kicked in. What I would be looking for is an increase in volume in the coming days, much like we saw in late January. This time QQQQ must take out the February low…and quickly.

XLF says good-bye to all supports.

Action: Sell/Short/Inverse -- XLF took out the intermediateterm Trend Support/Resistance at 16.18. The guidelines for the Broadening Formation suggest that the lower trendline is where we may expect the next significant bounce. We may see a swift decline to Model Support (which agrees with the Broadening Formation) at 13.24 or even lower. We may also see selling volume spike significantly higher.

FXI falls clear of supports.

Action: Neutral -- FXI declined below intermediateterm Trend Resistance at 42.18. Since February 5th, I had assumed that FXI would track U.S. equities. However, there are five distinct waves up and FXI has only retraced 50% of its rally. FXI does not have a triangle formation as does $SSEC, but an impulse does not stand alone. It may be nullified by a decline below 36.65, but if the decline stops higher, then FXI may also make new highs. We may see the turn at the same time that the domestic equities make a bottom, so a low in FXI that does not take out the previous low suggests we go long FXI at the turn.

GLD breaks above all but the December high.

Action: Neutral -- GLD rallied to a new high above its short-term Trend Support at 112.58. The triangle formation has been invalidated and replaced by a simple zig-zag. The rally may be over, but there is no clear evidence of that yet. The dollar and bonds also rallied today. What strange bedfellows!

USO breaks through all support.

Action: Sell/Short/Inverse -- USO declined below its intermediate-term Trend Support/Resistance at 40.31. USO has a line of support at 38.90 which may induce a bounce, but is still due for a decline back down to the Cycle Support area at 34-35.00. The top view is that it is probable that USO may continue its decline through any near supports to its next cycle low due in early May.

TLT may have completed its correction.

Action: Neutral, possibly a Short --TLT negated its reversal pattern today, and closed at a new high. It remained above short- term Trend Support/Resistance at 89.99. If TLT does not rally beyond 92.25, it remains a good short candidate. There is a distinct impulse from the lows, after a corrective decline. The Elliott labels and cycles suggest a tradable decline may follow a reversal here.

UUP goes back to the old wave count.

Action: Buy/Long -- Just as I was giving up on a breakout in UUP it rallies to the breakout point. It is still above shortand intermediate-term Trend Support at 23.73.

The cycles call for a potential low by mid-May but a quick breakout in UUP may match the breakdown looming in equities. What a change one day makes!

Have a great evening!


Traders alert:  The Practical Investor is currently offering the daily Inner Circle Newsletter to new subscribers.  Contact us at for a free sample newsletter and subscription information.

Our Investment Advisor Registration is on the Web

We are in the process of updating our website at to have more information on our services. Log on and click on Advisor Registration to get more details.

If you are a client or wish to become one, please make an appointment to discuss our investment strategies by calling Connie or Tony at (517) 699-1554, ext 10 or 11. Or e-mail us at .

Anthony M. Cherniawski, President and CIO

As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

Anthony M. Cherniawski Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in