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Will the Gold Price Rise in the Short-Term?

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 Jun 26, 2010 - 02:30 AM GMT

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePlease note that this article will not give you a detailed chart of future gold prices or specific price levels, but it will help you to understand the short-term gold price.

The G-8 & G-20 meetings are scheduled for this weekend and the press and observers are disappointed before they have even begun. Division between the U.S. approach to growth and sovereign debt containment and repayment and the European approach should be added to fears that sovereign debt cut backs will not be achieved in the end. The global financial mood is depressing and giving rise to falling confidence in the future of the global economy.


Despite the best efforts of governments and the media few are now convinced that growth will rise significantly, however no currency or economic collapses are likely soon. Instead the dangers of it slipping from the current "L" shaped recovery back into recession are growing. Government action should be coordinated globally if its present problems are to be resolved. As China continues to grow and such a lot of the growth inducements coming from Western governments, it is clear now that a Yuan revaluation is going to be well within single figures at best, until China is ready to place the Yuan firmly in international markets. Is this enough to make gold rise?

The market mood for gold

Today we are seeing the gold price rise as it completes this particular step of its short-term consolidation after hitting record highs last week. But inside the price what is there from which we can answer our question?

  • Gold has been consolidating over the last week after reaching a new record high level in this quiet season for traditional gold buyers.
  • It is clear that there are very large buyers in the market who are seeking to buy large amounts of gold, without chasing prices. These have identified themselves to some extent as central banks. Not all of them are visible, nor are the sovereign wealth funds who are buying as well.
  • Their buying practice is to set price limits that they will pay and then wait for the offers of gold. Hence they too are not clearly visible when prices don't move.
  • Large long-term holders of gold are buying through Exchange Traded Funds and have bought 124 tonnes so far in the last month. They tend to buy gold as the gold price starts to rise.
  • Traders have changed their practice from one of pushing prices and leading the market as they did five years ago to following the direction of the market and profit when others move the price. They find current conditions more difficult as a result.

The net result has been that prices don't fall as far as the charts indicate, but are rising higher than expected.

What impact will the G-8 and G-20 have on gold?

The meeting this weekend of the G-8 and G-20, we expect, will have no more effect than past ones have had. Encouraging statements will be made about good intentions, but with no believable plan of action. As now is the time for them to act, the climate of uncertainty and fear will continue to persist. Unfortunately, Politicians have other matters on their agenda and don't perform well, until a crisis is upon us. So we will have to wait for that crisis. Crises then tend to appear out of nowhere, hitting markets hardest and producing differing levels of panic.

To emphasize the point, markets have looked to governments to calm them when financial uncertainty persists. Government actions to date, taken inside the financial markets have not turned the global economy back to strong growth in the last three years. Banks have succeeded in softening most of the new regulations that will apply to them emasculating their effectiveness. Political considerations often precede effective reformation and regulation as a result. This discourages markets.

So, all in all, the G-8 and G-20 will likely add to the fears that markets presently face and encourage more gold price rises.

Supply of gold

There is almost no flexibility in gold supplies. Gold mining is extremely inflexible so tends to remain unchangeable in the short-term. Only by inciting sellers to come to the market can new supplies arrive. That takes a price sufficiently high to convince sellers that now is the time to sell. When this selling comes it is called 'scrap' sales.

But that is only as flexible as the price rises. Too low, no scrap sales come to the market. Too high, scrap sales can swamp a market. But there are no hard and fast rules to that formula. If the general expectation is for a $1,500 price, then hoarders will keep a tight grip on their gold until that price is reached even when they want profits.

But in this day and age gold owners are holding gold as a counter to the uncertainties in other markets and this is priceless!

Put another way, if you want the gold price to come down, regain the confidence of the consumer and rectify the national economy. If you don't, people will continue to hoard gold.

Demand for gold

Demand for gold is growing through a broadening of investment demand. In different countries and through new different investors the market is deepening. This investment demand is coming from people in different walks of life. As confidence decays, new investors appear. This type of demand is now controlling the bulk of the market. Where jewelry demand had waned last year, we now see it return to activity, but with its gold content firmly in the buyer's mind. In fact, as gold is not consumed but usually recovered, gold in all uses should be categorized as investment gold.

We continue to believe that new gold investors will keep coming and coming over time from central banks right down to Joe Citizen. Their driving reason will be that they want to have gold for rainy days when it can be used to provide value where currencies don't. That force is global and growing!

Will the gold price rise short-term?

Yes, it will. But beware; there are surprising changes about to happen in the gold market that will make us have to ask that question another way to get the correct answer from which you can profit. But that answer is for

Subscribers only

Gold Forecaster regularly covers all fundamental and Technical aspects of the gold price in the weekly newsletter. To subscribe, please visit www.GoldForecaster.com

By Julian D. W. Phillips
Gold-Authentic Money

Copyright 2009 Authentic Money. All Rights Reserved.
Julian Phillips - was receiving his qualifications to join the London Stock Exchange. He was already deeply immersed in the currency turmoil engulfing world in 1970 and the Institutional Gold Markets, and writing for magazines such as "Accountancy" and the "International Currency Review" He still writes for the ICR.

What is Gold-Authentic Money all about ? Our business is GOLD! Whether it be trends, charts, reports or other factors that have bearing on the price of gold, our aim is to enable you to understand and profit from the Gold Market.

Disclaimer - This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips, have based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips make no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips only and are subject to change without notice.

Julian DW Phillips Archive

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