Gold, Crude Oil and SP500 Technical Trading Patterns

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 Jul 19, 2010 - 02:49 AM GMT

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article It was an interesting options expiration week for equities that’s for sure. We saw some very choppy price action with large waves of buying and selling as the bulls and bears fought for control.

Both Gold and Oil closed lower for the week which is not a good sign considering the US Dollar dropped like a rock along with them.

Below are a few of my charts

GLD – Gold ETF Price Action
Gold continues to pull back from the June highs. It looks as though it could form an ABC retrace pattern if the July 7th low is broken. If $1085 is broken we should see gold drop to $1065-75 level. On the GLD etf that would be around the $112.50 - $113.50 level. That should shake out the majority of weak positions and start to rally towards the $1250/60 level.

Crude Oil – USO Oil Fund
This is a weekly chart of oil which clearly shows how selling volume has risen and the trend since 2009 has gone up, sideways and is now heading back down. The bear flag forming on this weekly chart looks about ready for another leg down. Once that occurs we could see a test of the 2009 lows.

Using some inter-market analysis crude oil tends to move in the opposite direction of the US Dollar. From a quick glance at the dollar chart is looks about ready to bounce which will send oil sharply lower. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds over the next 2-3 weeks.

SP500 – SPY Index Fund
Friday we saw some the SP500 sell off on heavy volume after testing its 50 and 200 day moving averages which are key levels for trading and investors to take profits or add to their short positions in hope for another multi day sell off.

That being said, there is still a good change of higher prices and for all we know this could be the start of another multi month rally. While I am more inclined for us to play the down side this week I will not have a problem taking a long position if we start to see the market internals and breadth improve alone with bullish price action. I monitor the 60, 30 and 10 minute charts which allow me to get a feel for the overall short term trend and strength.

Weekend Trading Conclusion:
Overall it looks like we could have a couple more days of weakness for stocks and commodities. The US Dollar is very much oversold and as of this writing it looks like its starting a small bounce. A rising dollar tends to put downward pressure on gold and oil along with the large multi national companies.

Equities sold off Friday with a slow grind down from 9:30 -4pm never putting in any type of bounce when looking at the 60 minute chart. The SP500 and other indexes are way over sold after Friday and I am expecting some follow through Monday as investors review the charts over the weekend and see what happened on Friday. That should cause another wave of selling in the morning as traders panic out of positions.

It’s going to be an exciting week for sure!

If you would like to receive my trading alerts and education checkout my service at www.FuturesTradingSignals.com or my swing trading service at http://www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

By Chris Vermeulen
Chris@TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Please visit my website for more information. http://www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen is Founder of the popular trading site TheGoldAndOilGuy.com. There he shares his highly successful, low-risk trading method. For 6 years Chris has been a leader in teaching others to skillfully trade in gold, oil, and silver in both bull and bear markets. Subscribers to his service depend on Chris' uniquely consistent investment opportunities that carry exceptionally low risk and high return.

This article is intended solely for information purposes. The opinions are those of the author only. Please conduct further research and consult your financial advisor before making any investment/trading decision. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Chris Vermeulen Archive

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.