Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Equities Topping But Crude Oil Has Further Higher to Gush

Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets Oct 14, 2007 - 12:28 AM GMT

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSo far, Thursday's plunge in the Nasdaq, as gauged by the QQQQ's, represents only a "minor" pullback within the dominant August-Ocotber uptrend -- unless, of course, this recovery rally represents an impending secondary failure at the top of the Aug-Sept channel.

My work argues that it is the latter, and that the Q's will grind a bit higher on Monday, and then put in a second high coordinate within a near-term topping process in the 53.00-54.00 area.


Semiconductors, meanwhile, as represented by the SMH, had a big gap down Friday morning below both its rising 200 DMA and its 15-month support line (36.40/30), which could trigger potentially significant technical damage to the intermediate-term chart structure.

Even if the SMH manages to grind its way up to 37.00/20 again, my pattern and momentum work (hourly and daily) are encouraging me to remain short largely because my primary scenario has morphed into a bearish one.

The Sept-Oct upside failures at 39.00/30 and the subsequent weakens into today's low near 36.00 represents the downside continuation of the July-Aug decline from 41.41 to 34.99. If my work proves accurate, then the SMH is heading for 34.00-33.00 before this decline ends.

Moving over to the S&P side, I might be a touch early in my entry into the long side of the SDS (ProShares UltraShort S&P ETF) in our subscription service's model portfolio, but this chart is screaming NOT to be short right here.

This is not to say that the SDS will not go down, and may make new lows, but it is to say that downside sustainability is extremely suspect. This chart is subject to the "beachball" effect -- that no matter how much pressure one exerts to keep a beachball below water, once you let go the ball rips through the surface and flies.

Yes, I expect the SDS to act like a submerged beachball. The only question is how deep it is submerged before it releases towards the surface. I am long the SDS in our model portfolio and I am willing to take the risk that the beachball is very close to releasing to the upside.

On a more bullish note, crude oil has climbed to new all-time highs again... and based on my chart work, continues to have unfinished business on the upside.

Let's notice that Friday's new all-time high at $84.05 came on a Friday morning of a key upside reversal week, which imbues the overall chart picture with a potentially very bullish "event" that projects higher prices into the $86-$88/bbl area next.

At this juncture only a downside pivot reversal and plunge beneath $78.00 will compromise the still bullish oil chart.

Sign up for a free 15-day trial to Mike's ETF Trading Diary today.

By Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com) , a real-time diary of Mike Paulenoff's trading ideas and technical chart analysis of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that track equity indices, metals, energy commodities, currencies, Treasuries, and other markets. It is for traders with a 3-30 day time horizon, who use the service for guidance on both specific trades as well as general market direction

© 2002-2007 MPTrader.com, an AdviceTrade publication.  All rights reserved. Any publication, distribution, retransmission or reproduction of information or data contained on this Web site without written consent from MPTrader is prohibited. See our disclaimer.

Mike Paulenoff Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in